This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
USC (n) | Stanford | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.6 |
Central Florida | Memphis | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
Florida St. | UL-Monroe | 38.0 | 36.1 | 37.4 |
Toledo (n) | Akron | 16.0 | 13.5 | 17.2 |
Florida Atlantic | North Texas | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.0 |
Oklahoma (n) | TCU | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.2 |
Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | -6.2 | -5.9 | -5.0 |
Georgia St. | Idaho | 7.5 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
Appy St. | UL-Lafayette | 15.7 | 13.2 | 15.6 |
Arkansas St. | Troy | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Georgia (n) | Auburn | -3.1 | -1.1 | -3.1 |
New Mexico St. | South Alabama | 7.9 | 4.7 | 7.8 |
Boise St. | Fresno St. | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
Miami (Fla.) (n) | Clemson | -7.9 | -6.4 | -8.6 |
Wisconsin (n) | Ohio St. | -6.3 | -6.7 | -7.5 |
Army (n) | Navy | -0.4 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
(n) means neutral site game
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)
PiRate Retrodictive | |
# | Team |
1 | Clemson |
2 | Wisconsin |
3 | Alabama |
4 | Oklahoma |
5 | Georgia |
6 | Auburn |
7 | Ohio St. |
8 | Central Florida |
9 | Penn St. |
10 | Miami (Fla) |
11 | Washington |
12 | USC |
13 | Notre Dame |
14 | TCU |
15 | Virginia Tech |
16 | Stanford |
17 | Oklahoma St. |
18 | Michigan St. |
19 | Memphis |
20 | Michigan |
21 | Washington St. |
22 | Northwestern |
23 | LSU |
24 | North Carolina St. |
25 | Iowa |
26 | Louisville |
27 | Mississippi St. |
28 | Boston College |
29 | South Florida |
30 | Iowa St. |
31 | Boise St. |
32 | Wake Forest |
33 | Toledo |
34 | South Carolina |
35 | San Diego St. |
36 | Oregon |
37 | Florida Atlantic |
38 | Florida St. |
39 | Arizona St. |
40 | Texas A&M |
41 | Texas |
42 | West Virginia |
43 | Purdue |
44 | Georgia Tech |
45 | Kansas St. |
46 | Missouri |
47 | Arizona |
48 | Fresno St. |
49 | UCLA |
50 | Navy |
51 | Troy |
52 | Houston |
53 | Texas Tech |
54 | Utah |
55 | Army |
56 | Kentucky |
57 | Duke |
58 | SMU |
59 | Northern Illinois |
60 | Indiana |
61 | Virginia |
62 | North Texas |
63 | California |
64 | Ole Miss |
65 | Ohio |
66 | Pittsburgh |
67 | Central Michigan |
68 | Minnesota |
69 | Florida |
70 | Syracuse |
71 | Maryland |
72 | Wyoming |
73 | Marshall |
74 | Colorado |
75 | Colorado St. |
76 | Temple |
77 | Nebraska |
78 | Western Michigan |
79 | Tulane |
80 | Arkansas St. |
81 | Akron |
82 | Appalachian St. |
83 | Southern Miss. |
84 | Florida Int’l. |
85 | Vanderbilt |
86 | Buffalo |
87 | Arkansas |
88 | UAB |
89 | Tennessee |
90 | Utah St. |
91 | North Carolina |
92 | Eastern Michigan |
93 | Rutgers |
94 | Air Force |
95 | Louisiana Tech |
96 | Middle Tennessee |
97 | UTSA |
98 | Miami (O) |
99 | Georgia St. |
100 | Cincinnati |
101 | Western Kentucky |
102 | Tulsa |
103 | UNLV |
104 | Baylor |
105 | Massachusetts |
106 | East Carolina |
107 | New Mexico St. |
108 | BYU |
109 | Nevada |
110 | Connecticut |
111 | UL-Monroe |
112 | Illinois |
113 | Old Dominion |
114 | UL-Lafayette |
115 | Bowling Green |
116 | South Alabama |
117 | New Mexico |
118 | Idaho |
119 | Oregon St. |
120 | Hawaii |
121 | Georgia Southern |
122 | Kansas |
123 | Kent St. |
124 | Coastal Carolina |
125 | Ball St. |
126 | Rice |
127 | Charlotte |
128 | Texas St. |
129 | San Jose St. |
130 | UTEP |
Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)
PiRate Ratings | |||||
# | Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
1 | Alabama | 135.6 | 132.3 | 134.3 | 134.1 |
2 | Ohio St. | 132.0 | 129.9 | 132.3 | 131.4 |
3 | Auburn | 131.3 | 128.9 | 131.7 | 130.6 |
4 | Clemson | 130.0 | 127.2 | 129.7 | 129.0 |
5 | Penn St. | 129.0 | 127.9 | 129.3 | 128.7 |
6 | Georgia | 128.2 | 127.8 | 128.6 | 128.2 |
7 | Oklahoma | 126.3 | 125.0 | 127.3 | 126.2 |
8 | Washington | 126.6 | 124.4 | 126.6 | 125.9 |
9 | Wisconsin | 125.7 | 123.2 | 124.8 | 124.6 |
10 | Miami | 122.1 | 120.8 | 121.1 | 121.3 |
11 | Oklahoma St. | 120.6 | 119.9 | 121.0 | 120.5 |
12 | Stanford | 120.9 | 119.2 | 120.4 | 120.2 |
13 | U S C | 120.2 | 119.4 | 119.8 | 119.8 |
14 | T C U | 119.8 | 118.1 | 120.1 | 119.3 |
15 | L S U | 119.1 | 116.7 | 119.6 | 118.5 |
16 | Virginia Tech | 118.7 | 118.1 | 118.5 | 118.4 |
17 | Louisville | 117.9 | 116.9 | 117.8 | 117.5 |
18 | Florida St. | 117.1 | 116.1 | 115.7 | 116.3 |
19 | Notre Dame | 116.0 | 115.0 | 116.0 | 115.6 |
20 | N. Carolina St. | 115.9 | 115.1 | 115.7 | 115.6 |
21 | Michigan | 115.8 | 115.5 | 115.1 | 115.5 |
22 | Northwestern | 115.6 | 114.4 | 115.7 | 115.2 |
23 | Central Florida | 113.8 | 115.0 | 115.1 | 114.6 |
24 | Iowa | 114.1 | 114.4 | 113.3 | 114.0 |
25 | Memphis | 113.3 | 112.5 | 114.1 | 113.3 |
26 | Iowa State | 112.5 | 112.6 | 113.5 | 112.9 |
27 | Boston College | 112.8 | 112.4 | 112.9 | 112.7 |
28 | Washington St. | 113.3 | 111.2 | 112.8 | 112.4 |
29 | Mississippi St. | 112.4 | 112.4 | 112.0 | 112.3 |
30 | Texas | 111.8 | 112.1 | 112.4 | 112.1 |
31 | Kansas St. | 111.8 | 111.8 | 111.8 | 111.8 |
32 | Wake Forest | 112.2 | 110.5 | 112.3 | 111.7 |
33 | Oregon | 112.3 | 110.2 | 111.7 | 111.4 |
34 | Duke | 110.4 | 109.4 | 109.5 | 109.8 |
35 | Georgia Tech | 110.2 | 108.4 | 108.7 | 109.1 |
36 | South Florida | 109.0 | 108.2 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
37 | Missouri | 109.6 | 107.9 | 108.9 | 108.8 |
38 | West Virginia | 108.4 | 109.0 | 108.5 | 108.6 |
39 | Pittsburgh | 108.8 | 108.1 | 108.7 | 108.5 |
40 | Utah | 108.2 | 108.3 | 108.3 | 108.3 |
41 | Michigan St. | 107.5 | 108.1 | 108.6 | 108.1 |
42 | Arizona St. | 107.6 | 106.4 | 107.3 | 107.1 |
43 | S. Carolina | 107.5 | 106.8 | 106.5 | 106.9 |
44 | Texas A&M | 107.8 | 105.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 |
45 | Boise St. | 106.1 | 104.8 | 106.3 | 105.7 |
46 | Indiana | 105.5 | 105.6 | 105.9 | 105.7 |
47 | Ole Miss | 106.3 | 105.0 | 105.4 | 105.6 |
48 | Purdue | 105.4 | 105.3 | 105.9 | 105.5 |
49 | Kentucky | 106.2 | 105.5 | 104.8 | 105.5 |
50 | Arizona | 106.2 | 105.0 | 105.1 | 105.4 |
51 | Florida | 105.7 | 105.4 | 105.1 | 105.4 |
52 | Texas Tech | 105.2 | 104.9 | 104.8 | 105.0 |
53 | Toledo | 103.6 | 103.4 | 105.6 | 104.2 |
54 | California | 105.3 | 103.2 | 103.8 | 104.1 |
55 | U C L A | 104.1 | 103.3 | 103.5 | 103.6 |
56 | Colorado | 104.5 | 103.4 | 102.4 | 103.4 |
57 | Virginia | 103.1 | 102.1 | 103.4 | 102.9 |
58 | San Diego St. | 102.4 | 102.3 | 103.5 | 102.7 |
59 | Houston | 102.4 | 102.1 | 102.5 | 102.3 |
60 | N. Carolina | 102.9 | 102.0 | 102.0 | 102.3 |
61 | Syracuse | 102.0 | 100.8 | 101.1 | 101.3 |
62 | Colo. State | 101.3 | 100.3 | 101.1 | 100.9 |
63 | Navy | 100.2 | 100.8 | 100.4 | 100.4 |
64 | Minnesota | 100.3 | 101.2 | 99.2 | 100.2 |
65 | Florida Atlantic | 99.0 | 100.7 | 100.7 | 100.1 |
66 | Vanderbilt | 100.8 | 99.8 | 99.7 | 100.1 |
67 | Army | 99.8 | 99.8 | 100.1 | 99.9 |
68 | Troy | 99.1 | 99.2 | 98.9 | 99.1 |
69 | Arkansas | 99.4 | 98.5 | 99.2 | 99.1 |
70 | Baylor | 98.1 | 99.4 | 98.2 | 98.6 |
71 | Fresno St. | 98.5 | 97.3 | 99.3 | 98.4 |
72 | SMU | 97.5 | 98.0 | 97.8 | 97.8 |
73 | Ohio U | 96.3 | 97.9 | 97.1 | 97.1 |
74 | Temple | 96.3 | 96.8 | 96.7 | 96.6 |
75 | Tennessee | 97.3 | 95.9 | 95.3 | 96.2 |
76 | Northern Illinois | 95.7 | 95.6 | 96.7 | 96.0 |
77 | Arkansas St. | 95.2 | 96.3 | 96.4 | 96.0 |
78 | Western Michigan | 95.8 | 95.2 | 96.5 | 95.8 |
79 | Central Michigan | 95.1 | 95.4 | 96.0 | 95.5 |
80 | Nebraska | 94.9 | 95.4 | 94.4 | 94.9 |
81 | Wyoming | 95.5 | 94.6 | 94.6 | 94.9 |
82 | Eastern Michigan | 94.7 | 94.8 | 95.1 | 94.9 |
83 | Maryland | 94.5 | 95.8 | 93.9 | 94.7 |
84 | Utah St. | 95.0 | 94.3 | 94.7 | 94.7 |
85 | Appalachian St. | 94.8 | 93.6 | 94.8 | 94.4 |
86 | Tulane | 94.2 | 94.4 | 94.6 | 94.4 |
87 | Tulsa | 93.1 | 92.8 | 92.7 | 92.9 |
88 | Air Force | 92.2 | 92.5 | 92.2 | 92.3 |
89 | Marshall | 90.9 | 92.3 | 92.4 | 91.9 |
90 | Rutgers | 91.1 | 91.1 | 90.7 | 91.0 |
91 | Massachusetts | 90.8 | 90.0 | 91.1 | 90.6 |
92 | Middle Tennessee | 89.2 | 90.3 | 90.3 | 89.9 |
93 | BYU | 90.0 | 89.9 | 89.9 | 89.9 |
94 | Nevada | 88.9 | 90.5 | 90.0 | 89.8 |
95 | Miami (O) | 88.7 | 90.7 | 89.9 | 89.8 |
96 | Oregon St. | 90.0 | 89.9 | 88.4 | 89.4 |
97 | U T S A | 87.6 | 90.0 | 88.4 | 88.6 |
98 | Buffalo | 87.3 | 89.3 | 89.3 | 88.6 |
99 | Akron | 87.7 | 89.8 | 88.4 | 88.6 |
100 | N. Texas | 87.7 | 88.9 | 88.6 | 88.4 |
101 | Louisiana Tech | 87.3 | 88.9 | 88.1 | 88.1 |
102 | Florida Int’l. | 87.6 | 88.1 | 88.4 | 88.1 |
103 | Southern Miss. | 87.5 | 88.5 | 88.1 | 88.0 |
104 | Illinois | 87.9 | 89.0 | 86.8 | 87.9 |
105 | W. Kentucky | 87.5 | 87.9 | 88.0 | 87.8 |
106 | U N L V | 86.2 | 87.7 | 86.3 | 86.8 |
107 | N. Mexico St. | 85.9 | 84.7 | 86.0 | 85.5 |
108 | Connecticut | 84.5 | 86.3 | 84.8 | 85.2 |
109 | Cincinnati | 83.9 | 85.7 | 84.6 | 84.7 |
110 | New Mexico | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.9 | 84.6 |
111 | East Carolina | 83.2 | 84.5 | 83.3 | 83.7 |
112 | Georgia St. | 83.1 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.0 |
113 | UL-Lafayette | 82.2 | 83.4 | 82.1 | 82.6 |
114 | Kansas | 81.8 | 85.1 | 80.5 | 82.5 |
115 | UAB | 81.6 | 81.6 | 83.5 | 82.2 |
116 | UL-Monroe | 82.1 | 83.0 | 81.3 | 82.1 |
117 | Bowling Green | 81.5 | 82.6 | 81.8 | 82.0 |
118 | Hawaii | 81.8 | 82.9 | 81.1 | 81.9 |
119 | S. Alabama | 81.0 | 83.0 | 81.2 | 81.7 |
120 | Old Dominion | 80.3 | 82.7 | 80.5 | 81.2 |
121 | Georgia Southern | 80.9 | 82.0 | 80.4 | 81.1 |
122 | Idaho | 79.1 | 80.2 | 79.9 | 79.7 |
123 | Kent St. | 73.9 | 75.4 | 74.2 | 74.5 |
124 | Coastal Carolina | 72.7 | 74.1 | 73.4 | 73.4 |
125 | Rice | 72.6 | 74.1 | 73.0 | 73.2 |
126 | San Jose St. | 72.3 | 72.4 | 71.6 | 72.1 |
127 | Texas St. | 70.3 | 72.5 | 69.4 | 70.7 |
128 | Charlotte | 69.5 | 71.8 | 69.7 | 70.3 |
129 | U T E P | 67.9 | 70.7 | 67.9 | 68.9 |
130 | Ball St. | 65.7 | 67.7 | 66.4 | 66.6 |
PiRate Rating by Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | AAC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Central Florida | 8-0 | 11-0 | 113.8 | 115.0 | 115.1 | 114.6 |
South Florida | 6-2 | 9-2 | 109.0 | 108.2 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
Temple | 4-4 | 6-6 | 96.3 | 96.8 | 96.7 | 96.6 |
Connecticut | 2-6 | 3-9 | 84.5 | 86.3 | 84.8 | 85.2 |
Cincinnati | 2-6 | 4-8 | 83.9 | 85.7 | 84.6 | 84.7 |
East Carolina | 2-6 | 3-9 | 83.2 | 84.5 | 83.3 | 83.7 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | AAC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Memphis | 7-1 | 10-1 | 113.3 | 112.5 | 114.1 | 113.3 |
Houston | 5-3 | 7-4 | 102.4 | 102.1 | 102.5 | 102.3 |
Navy | 4-4 | 6-5 | 100.2 | 100.8 | 100.4 | 100.4 |
SMU | 4-4 | 7-5 | 97.5 | 98.0 | 97.8 | 97.8 |
Tulane | 3-5 | 5-7 | 94.2 | 94.4 | 94.6 | 94.4 |
Tulsa | 1-7 | 2-10 | 93.1 | 92.8 | 92.7 | 92.9 |
AAC Averages | 97.6 | 98.1 | 98.0 | 97.9 | ||
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||||
Atlantic Division | ||||||
Team | ACC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 7-1 | 11-1 | 130.0 | 127.2 | 129.7 | 129.0 |
Louisville | 4-4 | 8-4 | 117.9 | 116.9 | 117.8 | 117.5 |
Florida St. | 3-5 | 5-6 | 117.1 | 116.1 | 115.7 | 116.3 |
N. Carolina St. | 6-2 | 8-4 | 115.9 | 115.1 | 115.7 | 115.6 |
Boston College | 4-4 | 7-5 | 112.8 | 112.4 | 112.9 | 112.7 |
Wake Forest | 4-4 | 7-5 | 112.2 | 110.5 | 112.3 | 111.7 |
Syracuse | 2-6 | 4-8 | 102.0 | 100.8 | 101.1 | 101.3 |
Coastal Division | ||||||
Team | ACC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami | 7-1 | 10-1 | 122.1 | 120.8 | 121.1 | 121.3 |
Virginia Tech | 5-3 | 9-3 | 118.7 | 118.1 | 118.5 | 118.4 |
Duke | 3-5 | 6-6 | 110.4 | 109.4 | 109.5 | 109.8 |
Georgia Tech | 4-4 | 5-6 | 110.2 | 108.4 | 108.7 | 109.1 |
Pittsburgh | 3-5 | 5-7 | 108.8 | 108.1 | 108.7 | 108.5 |
Virginia | 3-5 | 6-6 | 103.1 | 102.1 | 103.4 | 102.9 |
N. Carolina | 1-7 | 3-9 | 102.9 | 102.0 | 102.0 | 102.3 |
ACC Averages | 113.2 | 112.0 | 112.6 | 112.6 | ||
Big 12 Conference | ||||||
Team | B12 | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma | 8-1 | 11-1 | 126.3 | 125.0 | 127.3 | 126.2 |
Oklahoma St. | 6-3 | 9-3 | 120.6 | 119.9 | 121.0 | 120.5 |
T C U | 7-2 | 10-2 | 119.8 | 118.1 | 120.1 | 119.3 |
Iowa State | 5-4 | 7-5 | 112.5 | 112.6 | 113.5 | 112.9 |
Texas | 5-4 | 6-6 | 111.8 | 112.1 | 112.4 | 112.1 |
Kansas St. | 5-4 | 7-5 | 111.8 | 111.8 | 111.8 | 111.8 |
West Virginia | 5-4 | 7-5 | 108.4 | 109.0 | 108.5 | 108.6 |
Texas Tech | 3-6 | 6-6 | 105.2 | 104.9 | 104.8 | 105.0 |
Baylor | 1-8 | 1-11 | 98.1 | 99.4 | 98.2 | 98.6 |
Kansas | 0-9 | 1-11 | 81.8 | 85.1 | 80.5 | 82.5 |
Big 12 Averages | 109.6 | 109.8 | 109.8 | 109.8 | ||
Big Ten Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | BTen | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 8-1 | 10-2 | 132.0 | 129.9 | 132.3 | 131.4 |
Penn St. | 7-2 | 10-2 | 129.0 | 127.9 | 129.3 | 128.7 |
Michigan | 5-4 | 8-4 | 115.8 | 115.5 | 115.1 | 115.5 |
Michigan St. | 7-2 | 9-3 | 107.5 | 108.1 | 108.6 | 108.1 |
Indiana | 2-7 | 5-7 | 105.5 | 105.6 | 105.9 | 105.7 |
Maryland | 2-7 | 4-8 | 94.5 | 95.8 | 93.9 | 94.7 |
Rutgers | 3-6 | 4-8 | 91.1 | 91.1 | 90.7 | 91.0 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | BTen | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Wisconsin | 9-0 | 12-0 | 125.7 | 123.2 | 124.8 | 124.6 |
Northwestern | 7-2 | 9-3 | 115.6 | 114.4 | 115.7 | 115.2 |
Iowa | 4-5 | 7-5 | 114.1 | 114.4 | 113.3 | 114.0 |
Purdue | 4-5 | 6-6 | 105.4 | 105.3 | 105.9 | 105.5 |
Minnesota | 2-7 | 5-7 | 100.3 | 101.2 | 99.2 | 100.2 |
Nebraska | 3-6 | 4-8 | 94.9 | 95.4 | 94.4 | 94.9 |
Illinois | 0-9 | 2-10 | 87.9 | 89.0 | 86.8 | 87.9 |
Big Ten Averages | 108.5 | 108.3 | 108.3 | 108.4 | ||
Conference USA | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | CUSA | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Florida Atlantic | 8-0 | 9-3 | 99.0 | 100.7 | 100.7 | 100.1 |
Marshall | 4-4 | 7-5 | 90.9 | 92.3 | 92.4 | 91.9 |
Middle Tennessee | 4-4 | 6-6 | 89.2 | 90.3 | 90.3 | 89.9 |
Florida Int’l. | 5-3 | 7-4 | 87.6 | 88.1 | 88.4 | 88.1 |
W. Kentucky | 4-4 | 6-6 | 87.5 | 87.9 | 88.0 | 87.8 |
Old Dominion | 3-5 | 5-7 | 80.3 | 82.7 | 80.5 | 81.2 |
Charlotte | 1-7 | 1-11 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 69.7 | 70.3 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | CUSA | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U T S A | 3-5 | 6-5 | 87.6 | 90.0 | 88.4 | 88.6 |
N. Texas | 7-1 | 9-3 | 87.7 | 88.9 | 88.6 | 88.4 |
Louisiana Tech | 4-4 | 6-6 | 87.3 | 88.9 | 88.1 | 88.1 |
Southern Miss. | 6-2 | 8-4 | 87.5 | 88.5 | 88.1 | 88.0 |
UAB | 6-2 | 8-4 | 81.6 | 81.6 | 83.5 | 82.2 |
Rice | 1-7 | 1-11 | 72.6 | 74.1 | 73.0 | 73.2 |
U T E P | 0-8 | 0-12 | 67.9 | 70.7 | 67.9 | 68.9 |
CUSA Averages | 84.0 | 85.5 | 84.8 | 84.8 | ||
FBS Independents | ||||||
Team | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | |
Notre Dame | 9-3 | 116.0 | 115.0 | 116.0 | 115.6 | |
Army | 8-3 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 100.1 | 99.9 | |
Massachusetts | 4-7 | 90.8 | 90.0 | 91.1 | 90.6 | |
BYU | 4-9 | 90.0 | 89.9 | 89.9 | 89.9 | |
Indep. Averages | 99.1 | 98.7 | 99.3 | 99.0 | ||
Mid-American Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | MAC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio U | 5-3 | 8-4 | 96.3 | 97.9 | 97.1 | 97.1 |
Miami (O) | 4-4 | 5-7 | 88.7 | 90.7 | 89.9 | 89.8 |
Akron | 6-2 | 7-5 | 87.7 | 89.8 | 88.4 | 88.6 |
Buffalo | 4-4 | 6-6 | 87.3 | 89.3 | 89.3 | 88.6 |
Bowling Green | 2-6 | 2-10 | 81.5 | 82.6 | 81.8 | 82.0 |
Kent St. | 1-7 | 2-10 | 73.9 | 75.4 | 74.2 | 74.5 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | MAC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Toledo | 7-1 | 10-2 | 103.6 | 103.4 | 105.6 | 104.2 |
Northern Illinois | 6-2 | 8-4 | 95.7 | 95.6 | 96.7 | 96.0 |
Western Michigan | 4-4 | 6-6 | 95.8 | 95.2 | 96.5 | 95.8 |
Central Michigan | 6-2 | 8-4 | 95.1 | 95.4 | 96.0 | 95.5 |
Eastern Michigan | 3-5 | 5-7 | 94.7 | 94.8 | 95.1 | 94.9 |
Ball St. | 0-8 | 2-10 | 65.7 | 67.7 | 66.4 | 66.6 |
MAC Averages | 88.8 | 89.8 | 89.7 | 89.5 | ||
Mountain West Conference | ||||||
Mountain Division | ||||||
Team | MWC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Boise St. | 7-1 | 9-3 | 106.1 | 104.8 | 106.3 | 105.7 |
Colo. State | 5-3 | 7-5 | 101.3 | 100.3 | 101.1 | 100.9 |
Wyoming | 5-3 | 7-5 | 95.5 | 94.6 | 94.6 | 94.9 |
Utah St. | 4-4 | 6-6 | 95.0 | 94.3 | 94.7 | 94.7 |
Air Force | 4-4 | 5-7 | 92.2 | 92.5 | 92.2 | 92.3 |
New Mexico | 1-7 | 3-9 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.9 | 84.6 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | MWC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
San Diego St. | 6-2 | 10-2 | 102.4 | 102.3 | 103.5 | 102.7 |
Fresno St. | 7-1 | 9-3 | 98.5 | 97.3 | 99.3 | 98.4 |
Nevada | 3-5 | 3-9 | 88.9 | 90.5 | 90.0 | 89.8 |
U N L V | 4-4 | 5-7 | 86.2 | 87.7 | 86.3 | 86.8 |
Hawaii | 1-8 | 3-9 | 81.8 | 82.9 | 81.1 | 81.9 |
San Jose St. | 1-7 | 2-11 | 72.3 | 72.4 | 71.6 | 72.1 |
MWC Averages | 92.0 | 92.0 | 92.1 | 92.1 | ||
Pac-12 Conference | ||||||
North Division | ||||||
Team | P12 | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Washington | 7-2 | 10-2 | 126.6 | 124.4 | 126.6 | 125.9 |
Stanford | 7-2 | 9-3 | 120.9 | 119.2 | 120.4 | 120.2 |
Washington St. | 6-3 | 9-3 | 113.3 | 111.2 | 112.8 | 112.4 |
Oregon | 4-5 | 7-5 | 112.3 | 110.2 | 111.7 | 111.4 |
California | 2-7 | 5-7 | 105.3 | 103.2 | 103.8 | 104.1 |
Oregon St. | 0-9 | 1-11 | 90.0 | 89.9 | 88.4 | 89.4 |
South Division | ||||||
Team | P12 | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U S C | 8-1 | 10-2 | 120.2 | 119.4 | 119.8 | 119.8 |
Utah | 3-6 | 6-6 | 108.2 | 108.3 | 108.3 | 108.3 |
Arizona St. | 6-3 | 7-5 | 107.6 | 106.4 | 107.3 | 107.1 |
Arizona | 5-4 | 7-5 | 106.2 | 105.0 | 105.1 | 105.4 |
U C L A | 4-5 | 6-6 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 103.5 | 103.6 |
Colorado | 2-7 | 5-7 | 104.5 | 103.4 | 102.4 | 103.4 |
Pac-12 Averages | 109.9 | 108.6 | 109.2 | 109.3 | ||
Southeastern Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | SEC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 7-1 | 11-1 | 128.2 | 127.8 | 128.6 | 128.2 |
Missouri | 4-4 | 7-5 | 109.6 | 107.9 | 108.9 | 108.8 |
S. Carolina | 5-3 | 8-4 | 107.5 | 106.8 | 106.5 | 106.9 |
Kentucky | 4-4 | 7-5 | 106.2 | 105.5 | 104.8 | 105.5 |
Florida | 3-5 | 4-7 | 105.7 | 105.4 | 105.1 | 105.4 |
Vanderbilt | 1-7 | 5-7 | 100.8 | 99.8 | 99.7 | 100.1 |
Tennessee | 0-8 | 4-8 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 95.3 | 96.2 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | SEC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 7-1 | 11-1 | 135.6 | 132.3 | 134.3 | 134.1 |
Auburn | 7-1 | 10-2 | 131.3 | 128.9 | 131.7 | 130.6 |
L S U | 6-2 | 9-3 | 119.1 | 116.7 | 119.6 | 118.5 |
Mississippi St. | 4-4 | 8-4 | 112.4 | 112.4 | 112.0 | 112.3 |
Texas A&M | 4-4 | 7-5 | 107.8 | 105.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 |
Ole Miss | 3-5 | 6-6 | 106.3 | 105.0 | 105.4 | 105.6 |
Arkansas | 1-7 | 4-8 | 99.4 | 98.5 | 99.2 | 99.1 |
SEC Averages | 111.9 | 110.6 | 111.3 | 111.3 | ||
Sunbelt Conference | ||||||
Team | SBC | Overall | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Troy | 6-1 | 9-2 | 99.1 | 99.2 | 98.9 | 99.1 |
Arkansas St. | 6-1 | 7-3 | 95.2 | 96.3 | 96.4 | 96.0 |
Appalachian St. | 6-1 | 7-4 | 94.8 | 93.6 | 94.8 | 94.4 |
N. Mexico St. | 3-4 | 5-6 | 85.9 | 84.7 | 86.0 | 85.5 |
Georgia St. | 5-2 | 6-4 | 83.1 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.0 |
UL-Lafayette | 4-3 | 5-6 | 82.2 | 83.4 | 82.1 | 82.6 |
UL-Monroe | 4-4 | 4-7 | 82.1 | 83.0 | 81.3 | 82.1 |
S. Alabama | 3-4 | 4-7 | 81.0 | 83.0 | 81.2 | 81.7 |
Georgia Southern | 2-5 | 2-9 | 80.9 | 82.0 | 80.4 | 81.1 |
Idaho | 2-5 | 3-8 | 79.1 | 80.2 | 79.9 | 79.7 |
Coastal Carolina | 1-6 | 2-9 | 72.7 | 74.1 | 73.4 | 73.4 |
Texas St. | 1-7 | 2-10 | 70.3 | 72.5 | 69.4 | 70.7 |
Sun Belt Averages | 83.9 | 84.6 | 83.9 | 84.1 |
Pirate Conference Ratings
PiRate Ratings By Conference | |||||
# | League | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
1 | ACC | 113.2 | 112.0 | 112.6 | 112.6 |
2 | SEC | 111.9 | 110.6 | 111.3 | 111.3 |
3 | BIG 12 | 109.6 | 109.8 | 109.8 | 109.8 |
4 | PAC-12 | 109.9 | 108.6 | 109.2 | 109.3 |
5 | BIG TEN | 108.5 | 108.3 | 108.3 | 108.4 |
6 | INDEP. | 99.1 | 98.7 | 99.3 | 99.0 |
7 | AAC | 97.6 | 98.1 | 98.0 | 97.9 |
8 | MWC | 92.0 | 92.0 | 92.1 | 92.1 |
9 | MAC | 88.8 | 89.8 | 89.7 | 89.5 |
10 | CUSA | 84.0 | 85.5 | 84.8 | 84.8 |
11 | Sun Belt | 83.9 | 84.6 | 83.9 | 84.1 |
For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.
Bowl Projections
Bowl | Conferences | Team 1 | Team 2 | |
New Orleans | CUSA | SBC | Louisiana Tech | Arkansas St. |
Cure | AAC | SBC | SMU | Appalachian St. |
Las Vegas | MWC 1 | PAC-12 5 | Boise St. | Arizona St. |
New Mexico | CUSA | MWC | North Texas | Colorado St. |
Camellia | MAC | SBC | Central Mich. | Georgia St. |
Boca Raton | AAC | CUSA | South Florida | Florida Atlantic |
Frisco | AAC | MAC | Houston | Northern Illinois |
Gasparilla | AAC | CUSA | Temple | Florida Int’l. |
Bahamas | CUSA 1 | MAC | UAB | Ohio U |
Idaho Potato | MAC | MWC | Akron | Wyoming |
Birmingham | AAC | SEC 8-9 | [Duke] | [Iowa St.] |
Armed Forces | Army | BIG TEN 8 | ARMY | [Marshall] |
Dollar General | MAC | SBC | Toledo | Troy |
Hawaii | AAC | MWC | Central Florida | San Diego St. |
Heart of Dallas | BIG 12 6 | CUSA | Texas Tech | Southern Miss. |
Quick Lane | ACC 7-9 | BIG TEN 7 | Boston College | [Western Mich.] |
Cactus | BIG 12 5 | PAC-12 6 | Kansas St. | Utah |
Independence | ACC 7-9 | SEC 8-9 | Florida St. | [UTSA] |
Pinstripe | ACC 3-6 | BIG TEN 5 | North Carolina St. | Purdue |
Foster Farms | BIG TEN 6 | PAC-12 8 | [Utah St.] | Oregon |
Texas | BIG 12 3 | SEC 2-7 | Texas | Missouri |
Military | AAC 7-9 | ACC 7-9 | Navy | Virginia |
Camping World | ACC 2 | BIG 12 2 | Notre Dame | Oklahoma St. |
Holiday | BIG TEN 3 | PAC-12 2 | Northwestern | Stanford |
Alamo | BIG 12 1 | PAC-12 1 | TCU | Washington St. |
Belk | ACC 3-6 | SEC 2-7 | Virginia Tech | Kentucky |
Sun | ACC 3-6 | Pac-12 | Wake Forest | Arizona |
Music City | ACC 3-6/B10 4 | SEC 2-7 | Iowa | [UCLA] |
Arizona | MWC | SBC | Fresno St. | New Mexico St. |
Cotton | At-large | At-large | Washington | Ohio St. |
Taxslayer | ACC 3-6/B10 4 | SEC 2-7 | Louisville | South Carolina |
Liberty | BIG 12 4 | SEC 2-7 | West Va. | Texas A&M |
Fiesta | At-large | At-large | USC | Penn St. |
Orange | ACC 1 | SEC 1/B10 1 | Miami (Fla.) | Alabama |
Outback | BIG TEN 2 | SEC 2-7 | Michigan | LSU |
Peach | At-large | At-large | Auburn | Memphis |
Citrus | B10 1/ACC 2 | SEC 1 | Michigan St. | Mississippi St. |
Rose | Playoff | Semi-final | Wisconsin | Oklahoma |
Sugar | Playoff | Semi-final | Clemson | Georgia |
Nat’l Champ. | Semifinal | Winners | Oklahoma | Clemson |
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections |
It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.
UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire. Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires. Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle. Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.
The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.
If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.
With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour. The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.
Again, thanks for your posts! This last week is always a problem for me to figure out. Of interest is whether teams are locked for a bowl where the last game is less meaningful to them than resting stars for the upcoming bowl game… Like does Appy HAVE to beat L-Laf? Does Auburn HAVE to beat Georgia? Or, can they play their starters just half the game? Do your calcs take this possibility into account things like this? cheers dave
Comment by daveinokla — November 27, 2017 @ 8:58 am
Our basic calculations stay the same for this week, but the range of intangibles increases. The neutral site games produce special considerations, as we have to also predict which teams’ fan bases will turn a neutral site into a quasi-home stadium. It shows itself much more in basketball where every neutral site where Kentucky plays becomes Rupp Arena Annex.
The bowl season is where we have our problem. It is almost like starting over with a new season. That 6-6 team that finished 4-1 might actually now be better than the 9-3 team that was 6-0 at the halfway point. Our ratings may not properly catch up to the actuality, so we have to almost cook our books with intangibles to make our point spreads look like they should.
Thanks for your patronage.
Comment by piratings — November 28, 2017 @ 7:55 am
Hello,
Can you provide any insight into why your retrodictive rankings are almost always the most correlated to the consensus in Massey’s composite rankings?
Thanks
Comment by Jay — November 28, 2017 @ 7:43 pm
We have no idea why this is so. They haven’t always been this accurate. The predictive ratings were more accurate for many years, and then the reverse occurred. Our retro ratings are quite simple and in our opinion sort of useless, but so many people like them, so we throw them out there. They cannot be used to predict game outcomes at all, which is why we really give more attention to the predictive ratings, as to us they are the reason for producing ratings in the first place.
There is a reason why the Playoff Committee’s top 4 teams and Las Vegas’s top 4 teams are not the same. This week, Alabama is number 5 in the Poll, which means they are ranked as the 5th best team based on what has happened to this point in the season, or as a retro rating. However, Vegas would list the Tide as the favorite over any other team not playing on Sunday. The predictive belief is that the Tide is still the top team, even if they get shut out of the playoffs. Vegas goes by predictive factors, and in our eyes, trying to rate teams based on how they might perform in the next game is worth the time and effort to have ratings.
Thus, we would gladly trade our retro ratings success for better predictive rating success. Our Prediction Tracker results are having an off year, even though our Mean Rating is close to the top. We hope this makes sense. Thanks for the inquiry.
Comment by piratings — November 29, 2017 @ 6:33 pm
Just a minor point: accurate is probably not the best word. They are the most correlated to the consensus. The Ranking Violation % is perhaps a better indicator of “accuracy”. Either way, it’s pretty incredible that your rankings are quite consistently #1 out of 100+ systems in correlation if you are not specifically using any other systems as inputs. So whatever it means, it’s impressive!
In terms of enjoying predictive vs retro, I guess I’m the exact opposite. I enjoy pretending that one day the playoff will be determined by a composite of well-vetted retro systems instead of the current pseudoscientific method of having some powerful people in a room with some ipads or something. With predictive systems, I don’t believe there are any that can hit 53+% ATS long-term. If there are, definitely point me in the direction (not that I would be betting any real money, of course).
Anyways, you have at least one fan of your retro rankings so that’s one vote to continue them.
Comment by Jay — November 29, 2017 @ 7:53 pm