The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
USC (n) Stanford -0.7 0.2 -0.6
Central Florida Memphis 3.5 5.5 4.0
Florida St. UL-Monroe 38.0 36.1 37.4
Toledo (n) Akron 16.0 13.5 17.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 14.3 14.8 15.0
Oklahoma (n) TCU 6.5 6.9 7.2
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -6.2 -5.9 -5.0
Georgia St. Idaho 7.5 6.3 6.5
Appy St. UL-Lafayette 15.7 13.2 15.6
Arkansas St. Troy -0.8 0.0 0.5
Georgia (n) Auburn -3.1 -1.1 -3.1
New Mexico St. South Alabama 7.9 4.7 7.8
Boise St. Fresno St. 10.6 10.5 10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n) Clemson -7.9 -6.4 -8.6
Wisconsin (n) Ohio St. -6.3 -6.7 -7.5
         
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Wisconsin
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma
5 Georgia
6 Auburn
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Penn St.
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Washington
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Stanford
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Michigan St.
19 Memphis
20 Michigan
21 Washington St.
22 Northwestern
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Wake Forest
33 Toledo
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Colorado
75 Colorado St.
76 Temple
77 Nebraska
78 Western Michigan
79 Tulane
80 Arkansas St.
81 Akron
82 Appalachian St.
83 Southern Miss.
84 Florida Int’l.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Georgia St.
100 Cincinnati
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 Baylor
105 Massachusetts
106 East Carolina
107 New Mexico St.
108 BYU
109 Nevada
110 Connecticut
111 UL-Monroe
112 Illinois
113 Old Dominion
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Bowling Green
116 South Alabama
117 New Mexico
118 Idaho
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Georgia Southern
122 Kansas
123 Kent St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
3 Auburn 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
4 Clemson 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
5 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
6 Georgia 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
7 Oklahoma 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Miami 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 Stanford 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
13 U S C 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
14 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
15 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
16 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
17 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
18 Florida St. 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Boise St. 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
46 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
47 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
48 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
49 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
50 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
51 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
63 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
64 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
71 Fresno St. 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
74 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
75 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
76 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
77 Arkansas St. 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
80 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
81 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
82 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
83 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
84 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Massachusetts 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
92 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
98 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
99 Akron 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
100 N. Texas 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
104 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
105 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
113 UL-Lafayette 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
114 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
115 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
116 UL-Monroe 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
117 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
118 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
120 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
121 Georgia Southern 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
122 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
123 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
124 Coastal Carolina 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 11-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-1 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 11-1 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 5-6 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-1 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 10-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-0 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 9-3 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 7-4 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
N. Texas 7-1 9-3 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-7 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 6-2 7-5 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 10-2 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 9-3 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-3 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 11-1 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-2 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 6-1 9-2 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
Arkansas St. 6-1 7-3 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
Appalachian St. 6-1 7-4 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
N. Mexico St. 3-4 5-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
Georgia St. 5-2 6-4 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
UL-Lafayette 4-3 5-6 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-7 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
Georgia Southern 2-5 2-9 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
Idaho 2-5 3-8 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Northern Illinois
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Temple Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC UAB Ohio U
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [Duke] [Iowa St.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Marshall]
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Texas Tech Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Boston College [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 North Carolina St. Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Utah St.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Arizona
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa [UCLA]
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Washington Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Va. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Penn St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Alabama
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan LSU
Peach At-large At-large Auburn Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Wisconsin Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Georgia
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Oklahoma Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

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5 Comments

  1. Again, thanks for your posts! This last week is always a problem for me to figure out. Of interest is whether teams are locked for a bowl where the last game is less meaningful to them than resting stars for the upcoming bowl game… Like does Appy HAVE to beat L-Laf? Does Auburn HAVE to beat Georgia? Or, can they play their starters just half the game? Do your calcs take this possibility into account things like this? cheers dave

    Comment by daveinokla — November 27, 2017 @ 8:58 am

  2. Our basic calculations stay the same for this week, but the range of intangibles increases. The neutral site games produce special considerations, as we have to also predict which teams’ fan bases will turn a neutral site into a quasi-home stadium. It shows itself much more in basketball where every neutral site where Kentucky plays becomes Rupp Arena Annex.

    The bowl season is where we have our problem. It is almost like starting over with a new season. That 6-6 team that finished 4-1 might actually now be better than the 9-3 team that was 6-0 at the halfway point. Our ratings may not properly catch up to the actuality, so we have to almost cook our books with intangibles to make our point spreads look like they should.

    Thanks for your patronage.

    Comment by piratings — November 28, 2017 @ 7:55 am

  3. Hello,

    Can you provide any insight into why your retrodictive rankings are almost always the most correlated to the consensus in Massey’s composite rankings?

    Thanks

    Comment by Jay — November 28, 2017 @ 7:43 pm

    • We have no idea why this is so. They haven’t always been this accurate. The predictive ratings were more accurate for many years, and then the reverse occurred. Our retro ratings are quite simple and in our opinion sort of useless, but so many people like them, so we throw them out there. They cannot be used to predict game outcomes at all, which is why we really give more attention to the predictive ratings, as to us they are the reason for producing ratings in the first place.

      There is a reason why the Playoff Committee’s top 4 teams and Las Vegas’s top 4 teams are not the same. This week, Alabama is number 5 in the Poll, which means they are ranked as the 5th best team based on what has happened to this point in the season, or as a retro rating. However, Vegas would list the Tide as the favorite over any other team not playing on Sunday. The predictive belief is that the Tide is still the top team, even if they get shut out of the playoffs. Vegas goes by predictive factors, and in our eyes, trying to rate teams based on how they might perform in the next game is worth the time and effort to have ratings.

      Thus, we would gladly trade our retro ratings success for better predictive rating success. Our Prediction Tracker results are having an off year, even though our Mean Rating is close to the top. We hope this makes sense. Thanks for the inquiry.

      Comment by piratings — November 29, 2017 @ 6:33 pm

      • Just a minor point: accurate is probably not the best word. They are the most correlated to the consensus. The Ranking Violation % is perhaps a better indicator of “accuracy”. Either way, it’s pretty incredible that your rankings are quite consistently #1 out of 100+ systems in correlation if you are not specifically using any other systems as inputs. So whatever it means, it’s impressive!

        In terms of enjoying predictive vs retro, I guess I’m the exact opposite. I enjoy pretending that one day the playoff will be determined by a composite of well-vetted retro systems instead of the current pseudoscientific method of having some powerful people in a room with some ipads or something. With predictive systems, I don’t believe there are any that can hit 53+% ATS long-term. If there are, definitely point me in the direction (not that I would be betting any real money, of course).

        Anyways, you have at least one fan of your retro rankings so that’s one vote to continue them.

        Comment by Jay — November 29, 2017 @ 7:53 pm


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