The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 16-18, 2017

After a winning week with a modest 35% return on our investment, the PiRate Rating Money Line Parlays are just a fraction below break even for the season.  We are submitting three selections this week, with the odds being a tad lower in hopes that at least two of these three will win and put us back in the black for the season.  There are numerous trap games this week, so we chose to lay off about 35 of these games that could have been used to produce parlays in the +180 to +235 range.  The problem is that in just about every case, we were split on one of the games in the possible parlay.  For instance, the Western Kentucky-Middle Tennessee game found us divided at 3 to 3.  Either way, we could have used this parlay to produce a nice fat odds in our favor, but none of us are steadfast in our belief in the team we believe will win.  You can put a ditto on Wake Forest and North Carolina St.  We were 3-3 on that game too.

What you do receive this week are three parlays in which we were 6-0 on all but one game, and 5-1 on the other (NW-Duke).

Here are our 3 selections for the week.  REMEMBER: we issue these selections only for entertainment purposes and NEVER wager real currency on these picks.  We advise you follow our lead.  If you are a professional “player” and will play regardless, please use these selections as only one source for your investing ideas.

#1 @ +136  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia Tech Duke
West Virginia Texas
******************** ********************
#2 @ +165  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Minnesota
South Alabama Georgia Southern
Missouri Vanderbilt
********************  ********************
#3 @ +122  
Must Win Must Lose
Utah St. Hawaii
Old Dominion Rice
Idaho Coastal Carolina
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6 Comments

  1. Thanks to the Captain and Crew for posting these parlays – they are fun to follow!

    The Middle Tenn/WKU game is tough to decide and is important to me only in my pickem league where I’m picking 60 games this week. Looking at OddsShark, cleanup hitter, and my favorite Pi-Rates – all favor WKU by a tad. WKU is the home team and both are 5-5, so this game is important to both. Why is MTenn favored -3 in the odds??? Regional battle? Strange. Wish someone would explain this one to me! I usually go with the odds, but have to favor the underdogs in this one. imo cheers to all. dave

    Comment by daveinokla — November 16, 2017 @ 8:09 am

  2. Middle is 3-1 when Brent Stockstill has played, and this includes a win at Syracuse. Stockstill missed 6 games, and the Blue Raiders are 2-4 in those games.

    WKU is a mere shell of itself compared to 2015 and 2016. They still have a shot at bowl eligibility, but with no rushing game and an overall mediocre defense against the run and the pass, the Hilltoppers basically have to gain 350 passing yards to win games.

    We believe WKU has a 50-50 shot at passing for 350-400, so this game was a complete 3-3 split among the six PiRates.

    For full disclosure, one of the PiRates has a past history with MTSU as a play-by-play and color analyst for TV and radio in multiple Blue Raider sports, including football when MTSU was still I-AA. Another PiRate has a BS from MTSU.

    Comment by piratings — November 16, 2017 @ 11:22 am

  3. Obviously not one size fits all, but what value do you typically put on a QB injury? How long until true value is accounted for? Example – Francois goes down the first week, when is Blackmons capability reflected in Fla St ranking? Also with Stockstill, when does MTSU rating have his skill factored in?

    Vegas seems to think Linehan from Idaho is worth about 2 points, your thoughts?

    Comment by Ryan — November 16, 2017 @ 9:22 pm

  4. What a tough question! Obviously, the quick answer is at differs about as much as an ace pitcher in baseball. Is it Clayton Kershaw or Joe Gopherball that is out?

    The Qb rates between 3 & 20 points in our raw ratings before the start of the season. If a team loses its previous starter, we deduct 3 to 20, & then we add 3 to 20 for the new Qb.

    Linehan counts more than 2 points, but Vegas has a different reason for making a point spread. They are not trying to predict the score, just the betting choices.

    Stockstill is worth 9.3 points over the backup. If Sam Darnold was out for UCLA, we would take off about 11.6 points. Josh Rosen wouldn’t be worth as much but still would be good for about a touchdown.

    Who has been worth 20 points? Not many. Jack Mildren, Dan Marino, John Elway, Steve Walsh, Peyton Manning, Terrell Pryor, Matthew Stafford, and Steve Bartkowski are the ones we can remember

    Comment by piratings — November 17, 2017 @ 1:17 pm

    • Wow – I didn’t think it would touch 20 points. I saw Pryor stiff arm a safety in a HS game which tore the kids ACL – said safety had a D1 scholarship, truly a dominant talent.

      If I’m interpreting it correctly, you’re suggesting that the Nov 4 ranking of MTSU of 85.1avg would include Stockstill, then from there you deduct the 9.3 different to get the true MTSU rating. Now that he’s back in the lineup, the Nov 18 ranking of 87avg includes him in the lineup.

      Appreciate the time y’all spend doing this – the background knowledge just adds a different component to the enjoyment of fall Saturdays.

      Comment by Ryan — November 17, 2017 @ 1:51 pm

  5. These raw preseason ratings do not reflect how the pointspread or team rating is affected. Each unit (QB, Rec, RB, OL, DL, LB, DB, Spcl) is rated in the preseason, and then coaching, team tradition, and other intangibles are factored into the equation. Then, we have three distinct algorithms to further alter the raw ratings. Finally, the ratings are normalized so that the mean for the entire FBS is 100.0.

    Thus, the MTSU rating did not change by the number of points Stockstill is worth to his team in preseason raw ratings. His backup also has worth, as he is more than just a replacement player.

    Comment by piratings — November 18, 2017 @ 4:57 pm


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