Yuck! You could say that about the weather in recent weeks. You could say that about there not being enough “United” in the United States in recent months. You could say that about being a Dodgers’ fan during the last fortnight or being a fan of a team that has a 4-game set with the Cleveland Indians. You could say that about prime-time TV for the last 40+ years. But, most of all, you can sum up our money line parlay selections through two weeks of the football season with that one word.
We usually start each season off a bit weak and then begin to succeed around the first week of October, culminating in a big couple of weeks in the second half that brings us a positive return on investment for the season. We have to admit that so far this year, there seems to be just enough added parity in college football along with the usual uncertainty at the start of the NFL season to make this downright difficult to find parlays that return the type of odds we look for. Sure, we could take Alabama at minus one zillion and win a dollar, and we could even put together a parlay of 10 favorites like Penn State over Georgia State and maybe get a parlay at -500, where for every 500 we put up we can win another 100. But, that isn’t our style. We are on the lookout only for parlays that give us +120 or higher odds.
We selected 5 parlays last week. Each had excellent payout odds, and we were still alive in some of the really good ones with just one game left. We selected Oklahoma to win at Ohio State and could have returned a nice chunk of cash playing that game as a singleton. No, we had to add Stanford to that game to get +1010 odds, and when Stanford began the game looking like they could possibly win, we were pumped with the possibility that we could get far ahead on the plus side for the season. Alas, USC started to look like the prognosticators believed they would look, and the Cardinal went back to Palo Alto with a huge loss on their slate.
So, for the week, we invested $500 of imaginary bankroll and received back $278 for a loss of $222 or -44% Return on Investment. For the season, the numbers worsen to $600 invested and $278 returned for a -55.6% ROI.
As bad as the above sounds, it will sound even worse when we tell you that we didn’t really like 90% of the possible money lines this week. We couldn’t find much value in this week’s college schedule, and the NFL still looks mysterious. At this point of the season, and with two teams not even playing a game in week one, the NFL wars leave us trapped in a giant minefield. Is there a new Dallas Cowboys team out there destined to go from last place in 2016 to the best record in the league? What do we make of the LA Rams looking like the New England Patriots in week one, or the Patriots’ defense looking more like the 49ers defense? What about the anemic offenses in Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and New York (pick your poison with the Giants or Jets)? What about the AFC West? Could it be that four of the top 10 teams or at least three of the top five teams in the AFC come from that division? The Chiefs and Raiders dominated in week one like it was 1966 through 1969 in the old AFL.
What we are trying to say is that we are only risking $200 of imaginary bankroll this week. We are selecting one college and one NFL parlay, and we admit up front, we do not particularly like either selection, because they both required too many games to get the odds we like. If we win one of the two, it will be a profitable week, but we are telling you before you see the two picks that we have little faith in either one this week. As we said before, if you want a guaranteed winner to about 96% possibility, then you can come up with a parlay of about 10 sure things and still have to play them at ridiculous odds so that one upset would empty your account.
For instance, you could make a parlay of Penn State over Georgia State, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, Oklahoma over Tulane, Ohio State over Army, Alabama over Colorado State, Utah over San Jose State, Washington over Fresno State, and Michigan over Air Force. All eight teams are prohibitive favorites, and it is an almost certain possibility that all eight favorites will win, making this almost a sure thing. The problem is that for every $100 you put into a parlay like this, you can win a whopping $18.37 profit on your investment. It is actually a sucker bet, because out of those eight sure things, at this point in the season, one of those games is not the sure thing it looks to be, and we don’t really know which one it is, but rest assured one of these sure thing games will turn out not to be that way.
With that in mind, here are our two official selections for the week.
| #1 @ +179 | |
| Must Win | Must Lose |
| Temple | U Mass |
| South Carolina | Kentucky |
| Duke | Baylor |
| Wake Forest | Utah St. |
| Oregon | Wyoming |
Having to go five games deep to get a decent potential ROI, we would expect to get better favorites than this quintet. We went with Temple mainly because this is a selection against U Mass. South Carolina and Kentucky look like it should be close to a tossup, but in Columbia, we believe the Gamecocks are a touchdown better, and they are coming off a semi-impressive win over Missouri, while the Wildcats have been close to clawless through two lackluster wins. We are taking Duke over Baylor for the same reason we took Temple; Baylor has looked anemic in two games under Matt Rhule, and the transition to his style of play could be really tough. Wake Forest looks to have something going this year under Dave Clawson, The Demon Deacons took Boston College to the woodshed last week, and at home against a so-so Utah State team, they “appear” to be ready to start the season at 3-0. Oregon looks like one of those sure things against Wyoming, but you never know what might happen in Laramie. That is a subtle home field advantage for the Cowboys, and an improving Duck team may be walking into an ambush.
| #2 @ +276 | |
| Must Win | Must Lose |
| Baltimore | Cleveland |
| Carolina | Buffalo |
| New England | New Orleans |
| Kansas City | Philadelphia |
| Oakland | NY Jets |
The Ravens looked more like the Baltimore teams of 4 to 5 years ago last week when they punished Andy Dalton and Cincinnati. The Bengals score after 60 minutes was the same as their score before the game kicked off. The Ravens now get Cleveland for their home-opener, but the Browns looked like they were a force to be reckoned with against Pittsburgh in week one. It could be that “Money Ball” is about to start paying off near Lake Erie. But, we believe the Ravens will be up to the task this Sunday. Is Carolina going to look more like the 2015 team than the 2016 team? Did Buffalo really look that bad against the 32nd best team in the NFL and really have to worry about beating the Jets? If so, then the Panthers should win by double digits this week. New England playing New Orleans should never be allowed to happen again. No, we don’t mean the two teams should never be scheduled, but how do you give one team and extra three days off while making the other team have to play on the road on Monday Night? 4 extra days to prepare for a game, coming off the debacle in Foxboro on opening night against the Chiefs? We’ll take the road team in this one. In taking Kansas City and Oakland at home against the Eagles and Jets, we are going under the assumption that the two bitter rivals are possibly the two best teams in the NFL.
So, there you have it for this week. Remember that the PiRates never wager real money on our selections. It is just a mathematical exercise for fun. Please do not wager real money on our just-for-fun selections. That even goes for the five or six of you who are real professionals who claim that you have a unique way of playing our ratings that makes your weekends very profitable. It reminds us of the football handicapper with a system that consistently won 26% of his single sides wagers and never realized that if he just took the other side every week, he’d be the most successful guy in Vegas.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 