Bubble Update
Iowa, Illinois, and Utah clinched bids yesterday, but it’s to the junior prom rather than the senior prom. The trio are NIT-bound. USC lost a close one to rival UCLA last night, but we believe the Trojans are rather safe for now.
Some interesting upsets has made it a nerve-wracking day for a few teams that thought they were on the good side of the Bubble. Let’s take a look at those teams that received Bubble invitations Thursday.
A. TCU–The Horned Frogs pulled the big upset over Kansas, although the Jayhawks were missing a key player due to suspension. Kansas will remain a #1 seed, but they could move down to the fourth top-seed. Meanwhile, Jamie Dixon is looking like a genius, taking a program that has been down for a long time and bringing it to the precipice of NCAA Tournament membership. A Frog win today over Iowa State would give TCU 20 wins with a better than average schedule strength. It would be mighty impressive on a resume, and the Committee would probably move that piece of paper up into the “accepted pile.”
B. Kansas State–The surprises kept coming in Kansas City, as the Wildcats knocked off Baylor in the nightcap of the Big 12 Quarterfinals. At this point, K-State may have done enough to earn a bid, so this is probably the end of the line for Illinois State, and it could put a Friday Bubble loser in jeopardy.
C. Indiana demolished Iowa yesterday, and the Hoosiers looked more like the team they were suppose to be this year. If IU drops Wisconsin today, the Hoosier will have a chance to make the field. However, the Committee does not seem to favor the Big Ten this year, and it would be difficult to substantiate Indiana making the field if they do not advance to the Championship Game. Purdue may be fortunate to become a 4-seed, and with Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State all expected to make the field, an eighth Big Ten team would have to be very impressive in the next couple of days in order to make the field. The interesting plot line here is that IU can win this tournament if they continue to play like they did yesterday, and then it would almost be a given that the Big Ten sent eight teams. That would definitely burst a Bubble down the line.
D. Xavier had played itself down to the Bubble prior to Big East Tournament play, but the Musketeers moved back to the safe zone with their win over Butler Thursday. XU will get a bid even if Creighton tops them tonight.
Bubblelicious Games on Friday
If your favorite team is still in that gray area, and another upset or two makes the Committee order more ice cream, it could be a nervous 48 hours if your team loses today. Here are the teams that should consider today must win games, even if some Bracketologists consider these teams to be in the field. The key is that our 13 Bracketology Gurus are not unanimous in their beliefs that these teams are safe even with a loss today.
A. Vanderbilt: The Commodores made it three for three over Texas A&M, and they bombed away from the perimeter to bury the Aggies with a second half barrage of threes. Vandy must now do the same thing to the highly-ranked Florida Gators today to become a safe Bubble team. A loss would leave the Commodores at 18-15, and that would give VU two negatives. No 15-loss team has ever received and at-large bid, and almost all at-large teams have won four more games than they have lost. 19-15 improves Vandy’s chances by leaps and bounds over 18-15.
B. Houston: The Cougars still need more than one win to have any chance to make the Field. They must beat UConn today, and then they will need an upset of Cincinnati tomorrow to even move into serious consideration. Of course, that means Cinti must win their game against Tulsa.
C. Rhode Island is in the same boat with Houston. Not only must the Rams take out St. Bonaventure today to have a shot at the Dance, they also must upset Dayton tomorrow and thus need Dayton to beat Davidson to set up that game.
D. TCU will move into the Field with a win over Iowa State today. Of course, it will be a probationary invitation, because they could then be leapfrogged if a team like Indiana or Alabama should win an automatic bid.
E. Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers will become an official Bubbler today if they beat Wisconsin.
F. All four SEC games today have Bubble Implications. We already told you about Vanderbilt. Georgia has a chance to make some noise if the Bulldogs can find a way to upset Kentucky. UGA came close to sweeping the Wildcats in the regular season only to lose two heartbreakers. If UK wants to win this tournament, they will waltz through with three double-digit wins, but if the players are already thinking about the NBA Draft and don’t want to jeopardize their chances by giving their all and risking injury, then any team left in the field can beat the Wildcats.
G. Ole Miss has 20 wins, and a win today over Arkansas, followed by a possible win tomorrow over Florida (if UF beat Vandy), could move the Rebels into contention for a bid.
H. Alabama is the forgotton team in the SEC Tournament. The Crimson Tide have the potential to play with any league member when they take smart shots. Coach Avery Johnson knows how to prepare his team to compete, and it all comes down to FG% for the Tide. Until somebody beats the Crimson, they cannot be overlooked–even if they are. If the Tide beats South Carolina today and then gets a semifinal game with Kentucky tomorrow, a win over the Wildcats would have to make ‘Bama a serious contender.
I. The three Mid-Major Players: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, and Texas-Arlington are still alive in the at-large race, but the way the trio is playing, they will really have to lay an egg to lose in their conference tournaments. MTSU faces the one team that beat them in conference play today, and we expect the Blue Raiders to punish UTEP with a blowout win.
Nevada faces a somewhat tougher task facing Fresno State, and if the men from Reno win, they are no guarantee in the Championship against either Colorado State or San Diego State. In fact, the way the Aztecs played yesterday, they looked similar to all their past teams that advanced into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. This is possibly the best tournament to watch tonight if you are a basketball junkie from another league.
UT-Arlington is the least likely of the three in this group to get an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament, but they do own the one victory over Saint Mary’s other than the three Gonzaga pinned on the Gaels. There isn’t a lot to add to their schedule strength, so UTA really needs to win the Sun Belt title.
Friday’s Schedule
| Conference Tournament Schedule–All Times Eastern Standard | ||||||||
| American Athletic Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | SMU | 27-4 | vs. | 9 | East Carolina | 15-17 | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 |
| 4 | Central Florida | 20-10 | vs. | 5 | Memphis | 19-12 | 2:00 PM | ESPN2 |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 27-4 | vs. | 7 | Tulsa | 15-16 | 7:00 PM | ESPNU |
| 3 | Houston | 21-9 | vs. | 6 | Connecticut | 15-16 | 9:00 PM | ESPNU |
| Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | North Carolina | 27-6 | vs. | 5 | Duke | 25-8 | 7:00 PM | ESPN |
| 2 | Florida St. | 25-7 | vs. | 3 | Notre Dame | 24-8 | 9:00 PM | ESPN |
| Atlantic 10 Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Dayton | 24-6 | vs. | 9 | Davidson | 16-14 | 12:00 PM | NBCSN |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 21-9 | vs. | 5 | St. Bonaventure | 20-11 | 2:30 PM | NBCSN |
| 2 | VCU | 24-7 | vs. | 7 | George Mason | 20-12 | 6:00 PM | NBCSN |
| 3 | Richmond | 19-11 | vs. | 6 | George Washington | 19-13 | 8:30 PM | NBCSN |
| Big 12 Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 8 | TCU | 19-14 | vs. | 4 | Iowa St. | 21-10 | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 |
| 2 | West Virginia | 25-7 | vs. | 6 | Kansas St. | 20-12 | 9:00 PM | ESPN2 |
| Big East Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Villanova | 29-3 | vs. | 5 | Seton Hall | 21-10 | 6:30 PM | FS1 |
| 7 | Xavier | 21-12 | vs. | 6 | Creighton | 24-8 | 9:00 PM | FS1 |
| Big Sky Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | North Dakota | 20-9 | vs. | 4 | Idaho | 18-12 | 8:35 PM | Big Sky |
| 2 | Eastern Washington | 22-10 | vs. | 3 | Weber St. | 18-12 | 11:05 PM | Big Sky |
| Big Ten Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Purdue | 25-6 | vs. | 8 | Michigan | 21-11 | 12:00 PM | ESPN |
| 4 | Minnesota | 23-8 | vs. | 5 | Michigan St. | 19-13 | 2:20 PM | ESPN |
| 2 | Wisconsin | 23-8 | vs. | 10 | Indiana | 18-14 | 6:30 PM | BTN |
| 3 | Maryland | 24-7 | vs. | 6 | Northwestern | 22-10 | 8:50 PM | BTN |
| Big West Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 2 | UC-Davis | 20-12 | vs. | 3 | Cal St. Fullerton | 17-13 | 9:30 PM | ESPN3 |
| 1 | UC-Irvine | 20-13 | vs. | 4 | Long Beach St. | 15-18 | 12:00 AM | ESPN3 |
| Conference USA | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Middle Tennessee | 28-4 | vs. | 4 | UTEP | 15-16 | 12:30 PM | CBSSN |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 23-9 | vs. | 6 | Marshall | 19-14 | 3:00 PM | CBSSN |
| Mid-American Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Akron | 25-7 | vs. | 4 | Ball St. | 21-11 | 5:30 PM | CBSSN |
| 2 | Ohio U | 20-10 | vs. | 6 | Kent St. | 20-13 | 8:00 PM | CBSSN |
| Mideastern Athletic Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | UNC-Central | 23-8 | vs. | 5 | Md.–Eastern Shore | 13-19 | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 |
| 2 | Norfolk St. | 16-15 | vs. | 11 | Howard | 10-23 | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 |
| Mountain West Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Nevada | 26-6 | vs. | 4 | Fresno St. | 20-11 | 10:00 PM | CBSSN |
| 2 | Colorado St. | 22-10 | vs. | 6 | San Diego St. | 20-13 | 12:30 AM | CBSSN |
| Pac-12 Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Oregon | 28-4 | vs. | 5 | California | 21-11 | 9:00 PM | P12 Net. |
| 2 | Arizona | 28-4 | vs. | 3 | UCLA | 29-3 | 11:30 PM | ESPN |
| Southeastern Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Kentucky | 26-5 | vs. | 8 | Georgia | 19-13 | 1:00 PM | SECN |
| 4 | South Carolina | 22-9 | vs. | 5 | Alabama | 18-13 | 3:20 PM | SECN |
| 2 | Florida | 24-7 | vs. | 7 | Vanderbilt | 18-14 | 7:00 PM | SECN |
| 3 | Arkansas | 23-8 | vs. | 6 | Ole Miss | 20-12 | 9:20 PM | SECN |
| Southland Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | New Orleans | 18-11 | vs. | 5 | Sam Houston St. | 21-12 | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 |
| 2 | Texas A&M-CC | 19-10 | vs. | 3 | Stephen F. Austin | 18-13 | 8:30 PM | ESPN3 |
| Southwestern Athletic Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Texas Southern | 21-11 | vs. | 5 | Grambling | 16-16 | 3:30 PM | None |
| 2 | Alcorn St. * | 17-13 | vs. | 3 | Southern | 15-17 | 9:30 PM | None |
| *Alcorn St. is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores. | ||||||||
| If the Braves win the tourney, Texas Sou. wins the bid. | ||||||||
| Sun Belt Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | UT-Arlington | 24-7 | vs. | 8 | Coastal Carolina | 16-16 | 1:30 PM | ESPN3 |
| 4 | Texas St. | 18-12 | vs. | 12 | Louisiana-Monroe | 9-23 | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 |
| 2 | Georgia St. | 19-11 | vs. | 7 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 21-11 | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 |
| 3 | Georgia Southern | 18-13 | vs. | 6 | Troy | 19-14 | 8:30 PM | ESPN3 |
| Western Athletic Conference | ||||||||
| Seed | Team | W-L | vs. | Seed | Team | W-L | Time | TV |
| 1 | Cal St. Bakersfield | 21-8 | vs. | 4 | Utah Valley | 15-15 | 9:00 PM | ESPN3 |
| 2 | New Mexico St. | 26-5 | vs. | 3 | Missouri-KC | 17-15 | 11:30 PM | ESPN3 |
NOTE: We are getting several inquiries about our Red-White-Blue ratings and why we do not post them for every game. The computing of these ratings are quite laborious; it takes upwards of 7 to 8 minutes to do just one game, and even with five or six people retrieving the stats, it limits us to once per week and just the Power Conference games. We are not issuing any this weekend, as we are spending all our extra time getting this information for the teams that have clinched bids and finished regular season play.
We will issue picks for all NCAA Tournament games, commencing with the First Four at Dayton. We hope to have the First Four previews on this site by Monday Night Eastern Daylight Time.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 