The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 27, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 17: January 1, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:46 am

Not Much Left To Be Decided
Week 16’s results greatly reduced the importance of the season’s final week. 10 of the 12 playoff spots have been earned already, and from the remaining spots left to be awarded, just three teams will vie for them.

AFC
We know that New England, Oakland, PIttsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, and Miami will be the six conference teams in the playoffs, but there is still some work to be done to determine the exact seeding. It is not that hard at this point.

New England holds the key to home field advantage to the Super Bowl. If the Patriots win this weekend against Miami, they secure the #1 seed. If Oakland loses to Denver, then the Pats also would get the top seed, win or lose.

Oakland can still earn the top seed if the Raiders (sans QB Derek Carr) beat Denver, and Miami beats New England. If Oakland and New England both win, the Raiders will be the #2 seed.

Pittsburgh has clinched the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

Houston has clinched the #4 seed and will host the #5 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

In the West, if Kansas City wins at San Diego, and Oakland loses to Denver, then the Chiefs will win the division, claim the #2 seed, and earn a bye to the divisional playoff round, while Oakland drops to the #5 seed.

If Kansas City and Oakland both win, then Oakland wins the division and first round bye, while KC becomes the #5 Seed. If Kansas City loses, and Miami wins over New England, then the Dolphins jump over KC for the #5 seed, pushing the Chiefs back to #6. A Chiefs win or Dolphins loss would leave Miami as the #6 seed.

NFC
Dallas has clinched the top seed overall and will enjoy a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. Their finale against Philadelphia is meaningless, so Tony Romo could get to see action this weekend.

The leader for the #2 seed and first round bye going into Week 17 is Atlanta. If the Falcons beat New Orleans, they clinch the bye. If Atlanta loses, and Seattle bests San Francisco, the Seahawks would then elevate to the #2 seed. Additionally, if thr Falcons lose, and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta would fall to #4 seed, while the Lions jump to #3.

If both Seattle and Atlanta lose, and then Detroit beats Green Bay, the Lions would move into the #2 seed slot and earn a bye.

Green Bay cannot jump over Atlanta if the Packers beat the Lions, while Atlanta loses to New Orleans, regardless of what Seattle does. The Packers lose all tiebreakers to the Falcons.

As for the last two playoff spots, the Giants have clinched the #5 seed and their game with Washington is meaningless to them. However, it means everything to the Redskins. A Washington win to move to 9-6-1 puts the Redskins in the playoffs over the loser of the Green Bay-Detroit game. If Washington loses this game, then the loser of the Packers-Lions game would back into the #6 Seed.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 111.3 109.8 112.3 111.1 68 43
Buffalo 101.5 101.8 101.7 101.7 63 39
Miami 99.4 99.1 99.9 99.4 60 39
N. Y. Jets 92.3 91.8 92.4 92.2 57 35
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.2 104.9 105.7 105.3 63 42
Baltimore 101.0 101.8 100.9 101.2 61 40
Cincinnati 101.2 101.0 101.2 101.2 59 42
Cleveland 88.8 89.6 88.7 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.1 101.4 99.8 100.4 64 36
Houston 97.5 98.1 97.0 97.5 60 38
Tennessee 96.8 97.7 96.5 97.0 59 38
Jacksonville 95.1 96.1 94.9 95.4 60 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 105.5 105.3 106.1 105.6 65 41
Oakland 102.2 102.7 102.9 102.6 67 36
Denver 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.1 60 42
San Diego 97.6 98.6 97.2 97.8 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 105.7 105.1 106.2 105.7 64 42
Washington 102.1 101.6 102.2 102.0 62 40
N.Y. Giants 100.0 99.4 100.3 99.9 62 38
Philadelphia 99.9 98.9 99.5 99.4 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 103.0 102.7 102.9 102.9 67 36
Minnesota 99.5 99.3 99.1 99.3 57 42
Detroit 99.3 99.1 99.0 99.1 61 38
Chicago 92.8 92.0 92.5 92.5 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 108.6 109.1 108.8 108.8 72 37
Carolina 101.5 101.5 101.6 101.5 60 42
New Orleans 101.1 101.6 101.5 101.4 68 33
Tampa Bay 101.3 101.4 101.4 101.4 63 38
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 105.1 103.2 105.5 104.6 63 42
Arizona 102.5 101.7 102.4 102.2 63 39
Los Angeles 92.9 93.7 92.3 93.0 54 39
San Francisco 89.1 90.0 88.6 89.2 55 34

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Atlanta New Orleans 10.5 10.5 10.3 70
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.2 1.2 2.3 38
Detroit Green Bay -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 54
Indianapolis Jacksonville 7.0 7.3 6.9 63
Miami New England -8.9 -7.7 -9.4 48
Minnesota Chicago 8.7 9.3 8.6 33
New York Jets Buffalo -8.2 -9.0 -8.3 47
Philadelphia Dallas -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 17.4 16.3 18.0 45
Tampa Bay Carolina 0.8 0.9 0.8 44
Tennessee Houston 0.3 0.6 0.5 44
Washington New York Giants 5.1 5.2 4.9 46
Denver Oakland 3.4 2.4 1.9 47
Los Angeles Arizona -8.6 -7.0 -9.1 39
San Diego Kansas City -6.9 -5.7 -6.9 52
San Francisco Seattle -13.0 -10.2 -13.9 44

 

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