The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 22-26, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:06 pm

And Down The Stretch They Come
If your favorite team is in a conference with a conference championship game, then this is your team’s final regular season week. If not, then your team may have two more regular season games left. Let’s take a look at each conference to see where the races stand.

American
East: Temple controls its own destiny. If the Owls beat East Carolina in Philly this week, they are the division champs. If Temple loses, then South Florida can become division champs with a win over Central Florida. UCF is bowl eligible.

West: Navy has already clinched the division title regardless of what the Midshipmen do at SMU this week. Oddly, they will play the AAC Championship Game on December 3 and then face Army the week after. Navy is still technically alive for a Cotton Bowl bid should Western Michigan lose, so they cannot accept the Armed Forces Bowl bid just yet.
Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa are bowl eligible, and SMU needs to upset Navy to get to 6-6.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson has secured the division flag and will advance to the conference championship game. Louisville and Florida State are still alive for an Orange Bowl berth, while Wake Forest is bowl eligible. North Carolina State must upset North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Friday to become bowl eligible, while Boston College stands at 5-6 and would earn bowl eligibility with a win at Wake Forest. However, the Eagles might still receive a bid at 5-7 due to their high position in APR score. Syracuse has a very slim chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 if they win at Pitt in the season finale.

Coastal: Virginia Tech will clinch the division title with a win over Virginia. Should the Hokies fall, then North Carolina can win the title by topping North Carolina St. If both Virginia Tech and UNC lose, even though there could be a three or four-way tie including Pitt and Miami, the Hokies would win the tiebreaker and face Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke is 4-7 and needs to win at Miami to become the top 5-7 team for an alternate bowl bid.

Big 12
The winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game two Saturdays from now takes the Big 12 title. If it is Oklahoma, the Sooners are still alive for a Playoff berth. If it is Okie State, the Cowboys would secure the Sugar Bowl spot. West Virginia, Baylor, and Kansas State are also bowl eligible. Texas at 5-6 must beat TCU this week to become bowl eligible, while TCU must beat either Texas this week or Kansas State the following week to become bowl eligible.

Big Ten
East: If Michigan beats Ohio State, the Wolverines are division champs. If Ohio State wins, then Penn State would be the division champion if they beat Michigan State. If Ohio State wins and Penn State loses, the Buckeyes would be the division champs. Indiana must beat Purdue, and Maryland must take out Rutgers for the Hoosiers and Terrapins to become bowl eligible.

West: Although Iowa and Minnesota can still finish in a multiple-way tie, only Wisconsin or Nebraska can win the division. If UW beat Minnesota, the Badgers are in the conference championship game. If UW loses, and Nebraska wins at Iowa, the Cornhuskers earn the division flag. In addition to Iowa and Minnesota, Northwestern can become bowl eligible if the Wildcats beat Illinois. If the Illini win, the Wildcats still have an excellent chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7, since NU is second to Duke in APR score.

Conference USA
East: Western Kentucky will win the division title with a win at Marshall. If the Hilltoppers lose this game, then Old Dominion would win the flag with a win over Florida International. If both WKU and ODU lose, then WKU would back into the title. Middle Tennessee is also bowl eligible.

West: Louisiana Tech has already clinched the division title. UTSA is bowl eligible and will earn its first ever bowl game. Southern Miss must beat La. Tech to become bowl eligible, while North Texas needs to beat UTEP to become bowl eligible, although the Mean Green could sneak into a bowl at 5-7 due to their high APR score (better than Boston College, Indiana, Maryland, Syracuse).

FBS Independents
Notre Dame is 4-7, and if the Irish upset USC in LA, at 5-7, it is not sure whether the Irish would accept a bowl bid. They would not be guaranteed to get in, as they have the #30 APR score.
BYU has accepted the Poinsettia Bowl bid that was theirs if they became bowl eligible.
Army is 6-5, but the Black Knights are not yet bowl eligible, as two of those wins are against FCS schools. The Cadets must beat Navy to become bowl eligible, but a loss to drop them to 6-6 would almost assuredly still allow the West Pointers to earn an alternate bowl bid, as 6-6 with two FCS wins trumps any 5-7.

Mid-American
East: Ohio U wins the division with a victory over Akron this week. If the Bobcats lose this game, then Miami of Ohio can win the division with a victory over Ball St. If the Redhawks win, they will become the first team to ever go to a bowl after starting a season 0-6. If Ohio wins, Miami will still get a bowl with a win. Akron must beat Ohio to become bowl eligible.
West: Western Michigan is a win over Toledo and over Ohio or Miami from getting to the Cotton Bowl. If the Rockets upset the Broncos, then it will be Toledo heading to the MAC Championship Game. Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are also bowl eligible.

Mountain West
Mountain: Wyoming was picked to finish last in the division, but a Cowboy win over New Mexico will give them the division title. If the Lobos win, then Boise State can earn the flag again with a win at Air Force. If New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State end up in a tie, the Cowboys take the flag in the tiebreaker. Air Force and Colorado State are also bowl eligible.

West: San Diego State clinched the division title some time ago. They could be looking at a rematch with Wyoming. Hawaii can get to 6-7 with a win over UMass this week, and the Rainbow Warriors would rank ahead of all 5-7 teams in the alternate bowl pecking order.

Pac-12
North: The division title will be decided in the Palouse this week in the Apple Cup Game, as Washington State hosts Washington. Stanford is the only other division team that is bowl eligible. Oregon can sneak into a bowl at 5-7 with a win over Oregon State, while California would have a miniscule chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 with a win over UCLA.

South: If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffs win the division. If Utah wins, then USC takes the flag. Besides these three, Arizona State needs to beat Arizona to become bowl eligible, while UCLA can get into the 5-7 sweepstakes with a win at Cal. The Bruins are rather far back in APR score and would need a lot of 5-6 and 4-7 teams to lose.

Southeastern
East: Florida clinched the division with their win at LSU. Tennessee is still alive for a NY 6 bowl if they beat Vanderbilt, and Florida loses to Florida State. Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt is 5-6, and if the Commodores do not upset Tennessee this week, they can still get into a bowl due to an APR score that ranks just behind Duke and Northwestern and ahead of everybody else in contention.

West: Alabama has already clinched the division regardless of what happens against Auburn. Auburn is already bowl eligible, as is LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Ole Miss must beat Mississippi State to become bowl eligible.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State lost its first four games, including one to FCS Central Arkansas. Since then, ASU has won six games in a row and has remaining road games against UL-Lafayette and Texas State. The Red Wolves will most likely win both to finish 8-0 in league play, but if ULL upsets ASU, Appalachian State can tie for the league title with a win over New Mexico State this week. Since the two contenders did not play, the conference race would end in a tie. Troy and Idaho are also bowl eligible. South Alabama is 5-5 with games left against Idaho and New Mexico State. The Jaguars must win both to become bowl eligible at 7-5, as they have two FCS wins, but there is a chance the NCAA could grant them leniency for beating Presbyterian after having to relinquish a game against LSU. Still, at 6-6, USA would be headed to a bowl because there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill 80 spots. UL-Lafayette must beat Arkansas State and UL-Monroe to become bowl eligible.

Number of Bowl Eligible Teams at Present: 66
Number of Bowl Eligible Teams Projected by PiRate Ratings: 74
Number of non Bowl Eligible Teams Projected to earn bowl bids: 6

Our bowl projections follow at the end of this submission.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
2 Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
3 Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
4 Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
5 Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
6 Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
7 Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
8 LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
9 USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
12 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
13 Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
14 Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
15 Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
16 Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
17 Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
18 North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
19 Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
20 Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
21 Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
22 Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
23 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
25 Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
26 Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
27 Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
29 Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
30 Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
31 Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
32 BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
33 West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
36 Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
37 Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
38 Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
39 TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
40 UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
41 Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
42 Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
43 Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
44 Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
45 Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
46 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
47 Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
48 Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
49 Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
50 Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
51 Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
52 Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
53 North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
54 Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
55 Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
56 Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
57 Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
58 Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
59 Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
61 Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
62 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
63 Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
64 Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
65 Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
66 Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
67 South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
68 Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
69 Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
70 Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
71 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
72 Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
73 Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
74 Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
75 Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
76 Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
77 Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
78 SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
79 Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
81 Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
82 Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
83 New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
84 Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
85 Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
86 Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
87 Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
88 Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
89 Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
90 Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
91 Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
92 UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
93 Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
94 Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
95 Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
96 East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
97 Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
98 Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
99 UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
100 Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
101 Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
102 Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
103 Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
104 Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
105 Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
106 Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
107 Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
108 Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
109 Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
110 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
111 San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
112 Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
113 UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
114 Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
115 Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
116 North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
117 Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
118 Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
119 Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
120 Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
121 Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
122 Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
123 Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
124 Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
125 New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
126 UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
127 UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
128 Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
         
ACC Averages 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
4 Big 12 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
7 Independents 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Louisville
13 Florida St.
14 Auburn
15 Boise St.
16 Florida
17 Nebraska
18 Washington St.
19 Stanford
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Texas A&M
22 Tennessee
23 Houston
24 South Florida
25 LSU
26 West Virginia
27 North Carolina
28 Virginia Tech
29 Pittsburgh
30 Miami (Fla)
31 Navy
32 Utah
33 Iowa
34 Temple
35 San Diego St.
36 Tulsa
37 Arkansas
38 Toledo
39 BYU
40 Minnesota
41 Kansas St.
42 Georgia
43 Western Kentucky
44 Appalachian St.
45 Georgia Tech
46 Ole Miss
47 Troy
48 Wyoming
49 Memphis
50 Louisiana Tech
51 Northwestern
52 Baylor
53 TCU
54 Air Force
55 UCLA
56 Indiana
57 Oregon
58 Colorado St.
59 Kentucky
60 Central Florida
61 Arizona St.
62 Vanderbilt
63 Texas
64 Arkansas St.
65 North Carolina St.
66 Wake Forest
67 South Carolina
68 Old Dominion
69 Notre Dame
70 California
71 New Mexico
72 Mississippi St.
73 Maryland
74 Ohio
75 SMU
76 Idaho
77 Boston College
78 Duke
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Middle Tennessee
81 Oregon St.
82 Texas Tech
83 Michigan St.
84 Syracuse
85 Central Michigan
86 Iowa St.
87 Missouri
88 Army
89 UTSA
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 South Alabama
93 Illinois
94 Cincinnati
95 Georgia Southern
96 Arizona
97 Akron
98 Utah St.
99 Southern Miss.
100 Hawaii
101 UNLV
102 Virginia
103 North Texas
104 UL-Lafayette
105 East Carolina
106 Tulane
107 Purdue
108 Ball St.
109 Rutgers
110 Bowling Green
111 San Jose St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Kent St.
114 Georgia St.
115 Connecticut
116 Nevada
117 Kansas
118 Charlotte
119 New Mexico St.
120 Florida Int’l.
121 Marshall
122 Rice
123 Massachusetts
124 Florida Atlantic
125 UTEP
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

This Week’s Spreads

November 22-26
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 22
Ohio U Akron 12.4 12.8 12.3
Miami (O) Ball St. 8.2 7.5 8.9
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan -3.8 -3.7 -3.5
         
Thanksgiving Day, November 24
Texas A&M LSU -7.5 -4.3 -7.5
         
Black Friday, November 25
Kent St. Northern Illinois -7.9 -7.7 -8.9
North Carolina North Carolina St. 13.6 11.1 13.9
Memphis Houston -3.1 -4.1 -5.4
Bowling Green Buffalo 13.8 8.5 13.6
Missouri Arkansas -11.1 -7.7 -3.3
Washington St. Washington -8.1 -4.6 -7.8
Air Force Boise St. -6.8 -6.0 -7.5
Texas TCU 0.9 0.9 0.9
Iowa Nebraska 6.8 6.6 6.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -13.5 -11.9 -15.5
Western Michigan Toledo 12.7 12.0 13.3
Texas Tech Baylor -2.3 -3.8 -3.5
Tulsa Cincinnati 17.7 18.1 19.1
Arizona Arizona St. -8.0 -8.7 -8.2
         
Saturday, November 26
Georgia Georgia Tech 0.3 3.7 0.5
Louisville Kentucky 25.2 20.6 25.7
Kansas St. Kansas 24.4 22.3 26.6
Maryland Rutgers 11.2 15.3 10.9
Ohio St. Michigan 2.9 4.4 3.4
Indiana Purdue 16.1 18.8 17.1
Northwestern Illinois 18.3 17.7 18.3
South Florida Central Florida 13.9 10.8 13.6
Virginia Tech Virginia 15.0 16.4 15.9
UL-Lafayette Arkansas St. -11.4 -9.3 -11.9
Pittsburgh Syracuse 22.5 21.6 23.7
Wake Forest Boston College 7.0 6.5 8.1
Miami (Fla.) Duke 20.1 15.4 20.6
Old Dominion Florida Int’l. 10.3 9.1 10.9
Fresno St. San Jose St. -4.5 -1.1 -4.7
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 5.1 3.3 5.0
Alabama Auburn 19.2 14.4 19.5
USC Notre Dame 14.4 12.3 13.8
SMU Navy -8.0 -7.0 -7.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -3.3 -3.0 -3.6
Penn St. Michigan St. 11.8 13.5 13.0
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.6 13.7 15.6
Idaho South Alabama 4.5 3.2 5.7
Texas St. Troy -26.3 -27.9 -27.3
New Mexico St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -19.7 -22.0
Connecticut Tulane 7.7 3.1 6.5
Oregon St. Oregon -3.2 -5.8 -3.4
UNLV Nevada 3.5 4.0 1.4
UTEP North Texas -8.1 -6.0 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 16.1 13.0 13.9
Marshall Western Kentucky -22.9 -17.1 -23.6
UTSA Charlotte 13.1 13.4 14.7
California UCLA -5.1 -9.6 -6.6
Colorado Utah 9.8 10.3 11.4
Clemson South Carolina 29.3 23.2 29.6
Vanderbilt Tennessee -10.2 -11.0 -10.6
Temple East Carolina 23.9 21.7 24.6
Stanford Rice 42.1 29.6 41.1
Florida St. Florida 9.2 2.2 10.0
San Diego St. Colorado St. 17.2 16.3 18.0
New Mexico Wyoming 0.3 2.5 0.1
BYU Utah St. 24.5 17.3 24.9
Hawaii Massachusetts 5.1 -0.8 3.9

Bowl Projections

This week, we project just 74 teams becoming bowl eligible, which means six teams would need to be picked as non bowl-eligible alternates.  Three of those teams could be 6-6 Army, 6-6 South Alabama, and 6-7 Hawaii.  That would leave room for three 5-7 teams.

We have a unique thought this week.  The Armed Forces Bowl could very well need to fill one of its spots with one of these alternates.  Why not take Army, since it is the Armed Forces Bowl?  The opponent would be Navy.  It is out of the ordinary for bowls to have rematch games, but in this case, if Army and Navy play a close game in Baltimore on December 10, why not have a rematch in a bowl?  In the past, LSU and Ole Miss hooked up in the Sugar Bowl after playing a close game in the regular season, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma, when they met again in the Orange Bowl.  The Rose Bowls from past years have seen multiple rematch games.

Here are our projections for this week.  Note that BYU’s bid is already secured.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Tulsa vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC South Florida vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Temple vs. Ohio U
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Army}
Dollar General MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Idaho
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Central Florida vs. {Vanderbilt}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Boston College} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND Ole Miss vs. {Oregon}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Washington St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. {Hawaii}
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. Kansas St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. Stanford
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC {South Alabama} vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Arkansas
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Ohio St.
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Washington
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Tennessee
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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