The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 6, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 8-12, 2016

Thank You For The Kind Words

We have received more than three dozens congratulations tonight from you about our incredible weekend with our Money Line selections.  For those that do not know or follow, our picks (all at better than even money odds) went 6-0 returning a profit of 151%, but as we say every week in our selections “We do not actually wager real money on these games, and we advise you not to use our picks for anything more than secondary research.”  That said, we now show a profit for the season and a return on investment of 12%, which looks a lot better than the stock market this year.  Unfortunately, we cannot say that the stock market selections are as mythical as the money line picks.

 

Decision 2016
This is the big week. There will be change sweeping across America after the results of this week. This is the week where America will tune in to see if the favorite or the underdog wins.

No, we’re not talking politics. This is the first of the big closing weeks to the college football season, and a lot of games have major importance and implications on conference championships and more. Let’s take a look at some of the key games and why this will be a weekend you want to stay inside, enjoy a nice brunch on Saturday morning, an assortment of snackfood, and your beverages of choice as you are entertained from Noon Eastern Time Until past Midnight.

Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners hold out very slim hopes of sneaking into the playoffs with two losses, while Baylor is trying to stop a swoon. We predicted Baylor would end the season sinking due to a lack of depth, and we think the Bears will suffer their third consecutive loss. But, we cannot see Oklahoma jumping into the top four. However, the Sooners are in a tight, three-way race for the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl bid that would come with it.

South Carolina at Florida and Kentucky at Tennessee
We have grouped these two games together, because the SEC East is now up for grabs between the Gators, Volunteers, and more. If South Carolina continues its late-season surge and upsets the Gators in the Swamp, and if Kentucky can win in Knoxville for the first time in 32 years, then the race will be open for as many as three to five teams to finish in a multiple tie at 4-4. Maybe none of these teams really wants to face Alabama in Atlanta in December.

Tulsa at Navy
At stake in this game is the American Athletic Western Division title. Both teams are 4-1 in league play, and the winner figures to finish 7-1 and play Temple or South Florida in the AAC Championship Game.

UTSA at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is the prohibitive favorite to win the Conference USA West Division, and this is the Bulldogs’ final obstacle to that path. UTSA has become the surprise team in the division with recent wins over North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The winner of this game will play Western Kentucky in the league championship game.

Appalachian St. at Troy
This game should decide the Sun Belt title, as these are the current top two teams in the league. If the winner of this game runs the table the rest of the way, it is likely the league will have a team that cracks the top 25 at the end of the season.

South Florida at Memphis
USF can still win the AAC East, and Memphis has a teeny tiny path to the AAC West division flag, but these teams are really fighting it out for a better bowl. The league does not slot teams in bowls by where they finish, but instead tries to place teams in bowls that provide better matchups. It’s better to be in Boca Raton, Orlando, or Miami Beach than Birmingham or Ft. Worth, and the sexier bowl sites will go to the teams that finish strong in November.

USC at Washington
The Trojans look like a new team from the one that lost to Stanford and Utah. The Trojans have won five consecutive games, including the lone Pac-12 loss on Colorado. The Trohans have averaged 40 points per game in this stretch. Washington has a tough closing schedule, as they have to win this game, beat Washington State in Pullman, and then beat the Pac-12 South Division winner (most likely Colorado or Utah) in the Pac-12 Championship Game to make it to the playoffs.

New Mexico at Utah St.
The Mountain West’s Mountain Division race is up for grabs, as New Mexico has just one conference loss and remains tied with Boise State, one game behind Wyoming. The Lobos are going bowling for sure, but they might like to venture outside of their home stadium for once. If they keep winning, they get to go to Vegas. Utah State is close to bowl elimination and finishes the season at Nevada and at BYU. This is a must-win game for the Aggies.

This week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.1 129.4 136.0 133.8
2 Michigan 131.9 129.4 132.1 131.1
3 Washington 130.8 123.5 130.6 128.3
4 Louisville 129.3 124.7 129.4 127.8
5 Clemson 129.5 122.4 128.6 126.8
6 Ohio St. 125.7 125.0 126.2 125.6
7 LSU 124.6 119.5 124.2 122.8
8 Auburn 122.3 120.0 122.3 121.5
9 Oklahoma 120.2 118.8 119.8 119.6
10 Virginia Tech 118.6 117.3 118.9 118.3
11 North Carolina 119.9 113.6 120.0 117.8
12 USC 118.9 114.2 116.8 116.6
13 Florida St. 118.8 112.6 117.9 116.4
14 Wisconsin 116.6 114.3 117.3 116.1
15 Colorado 117.5 113.1 117.3 116.0
16 Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.3 115.0 115.5
17 Texas A&M 116.2 114.4 115.7 115.4
18 Washington St. 116.4 113.5 116.2 115.4
19 Miami 117.3 111.6 116.8 115.2
20 Tennessee 116.0 113.2 115.2 114.8
21 Penn St. 114.6 115.4 114.3 114.8
22 Western Michigan 113.2 112.5 115.0 113.6
23 Florida 112.2 113.8 110.5 112.2
24 Stanford 114.2 108.3 113.5 112.0
25 Pittsburgh 113.2 109.5 112.2 111.6
26 West Virginia 111.6 110.9 111.0 111.2
27 Texas 110.5 111.6 109.9 110.7
28 TCU 110.3 111.8 109.4 110.5
29 Arkansas 112.4 108.0 110.7 110.4
30 Ole Miss 112.0 107.9 110.7 110.2
31 Houston 109.6 108.5 111.0 109.7
32 Notre Dame 111.2 108.0 109.8 109.7
33 Utah 112.0 106.5 110.4 109.6
34 Baylor 109.3 109.8 109.7 109.6
35 UCLA 110.2 108.6 109.5 109.4
36 BYU 110.5 105.2 110.4 108.7
37 South Florida 109.1 107.3 109.6 108.7
38 Mississippi St. 109.4 107.7 108.6 108.6
39 San Diego St. 108.4 106.8 110.4 108.6
40 Iowa 109.2 107.0 108.7 108.3
41 Nebraska 109.1 106.4 108.8 108.1
42 Northwestern 109.5 105.8 108.5 107.9
43 Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
44 Kansas St. 106.6 108.8 106.5 107.3
45 Temple 106.9 106.1 107.4 106.8
46 Georgia Tech 107.5 103.5 106.2 105.7
47 Western Kentucky 105.5 103.1 106.6 105.1
48 Oregon 105.9 104.0 105.0 105.0
49 Boise St. 104.3 105.5 105.1 105.0
50 Minnesota 105.5 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.9 104.8
52 North Carolina St. 105.3 102.4 104.9 104.2
53 Texas Tech 104.4 103.6 102.9 103.7
54 Toledo 103.1 103.6 103.9 103.5
55 Arizona St. 104.2 103.1 102.8 103.4
56 Indiana 102.9 104.6 102.4 103.3
57 Memphis 104.2 102.3 103.1 103.2
58 Navy 103.7 102.1 103.5 103.1
59 Virginia 103.6 101.0 103.0 102.5
60 Michigan St. 103.3 102.5 101.6 102.5
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.9 102.8 102.0
62 Duke 102.2 102.0 101.6 101.9
63 Vanderbilt 103.3 99.9 102.2 101.8
64 Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
65 Appalachian St. 99.6 100.0 101.4 100.3
66 South Carolina 100.1 99.7 99.8 99.9
67 Maryland 99.6 102.2 97.9 99.9
68 California 102.9 96.2 100.5 99.9
69 Syracuse 101.2 97.9 99.6 99.6
70 Louisiana Tech 97.8 99.6 99.7 99.0
71 Iowa St. 99.0 98.5 98.4 98.6
72 Central Florida 97.5 98.8 98.3 98.2
73 Air Force 96.7 98.4 97.1 97.4
74 Missouri 97.5 97.2 96.7 97.2
75 Boston College 97.1 95.9 96.4 96.5
76 Northern Illinois 94.8 96.1 96.1 95.7
77 New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
78 Troy 93.3 98.0 95.3 95.6
79 Cincinnati 95.2 95.4 94.9 95.2
80 Oregon St. 97.1 92.5 95.8 95.1
81 Wyoming 94.6 94.6 95.7 95.0
82 Illinois 95.7 92.5 94.7 94.3
83 Ohio 91.8 97.5 92.6 94.0
84 East Carolina 93.3 94.9 93.5 93.9
85 Arizona 95.1 92.9 93.6 93.9
86 Army 90.9 97.6 92.6 93.7
87 Central Michigan 92.8 94.7 93.1 93.5
88 Colorado St. 92.4 94.2 93.3 93.3
89 Middle Tennessee 92.6 93.7 93.1 93.1
90 Arkansas St. 91.6 93.7 93.4 92.9
91 SMU 91.4 90.9 93.5 92.0
92 Rutgers 92.3 90.1 91.0 91.2
93 Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
94 Georgia Southern 90.0 89.4 91.8 90.4
95 Connecticut 90.6 89.6 90.1 90.1
96 Miami (O) 89.3 90.2 90.8 90.1
97 Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
98 Old Dominion 87.6 90.9 88.4 89.0
99 Southern Mississippi 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7
100 UTSA 85.5 92.0 87.9 88.5
101 Kent St. 87.4 89.2 88.1 88.3
102 Nevada 85.5 87.8 86.2 86.5
103 UNLV 85.3 88.4 85.4 86.4
104 Eastern Michigan 85.3 87.6 85.6 86.2
105 Ball St. 85.1 87.2 86.1 86.1
106 Tulane 83.3 87.4 83.9 84.9
107 Akron 82.6 88.1 83.7 84.8
108 South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
109 Georgia St. 82.0 86.6 83.8 84.1
110 Kansas 83.1 88.0 80.6 83.9
111 San Jose St. 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.7
112 Idaho 80.6 86.0 82.5 83.0
113 Massachusetts 80.0 86.3 81.1 82.5
114 North Texas 81.1 84.3 81.7 82.4
115 Hawaii 82.6 81.8 82.4 82.3
116 Marshall 80.7 84.5 81.3 82.2
117 Bowling Green 81.7 82.2 81.7 81.9
118 Florida International 79.4 83.8 79.8 81.0
119 UL-Lafayette 76.9 82.9 78.4 79.4
120 Charlotte 77.1 82.6 77.9 79.2
121 Florida Atlantic 76.0 80.7 78.8 78.5
122 Buffalo 75.8 82.8 76.3 78.3
123 Fresno St. 77.1 80.6 76.8 78.2
124 Rice 75.2 81.9 75.3 77.5
125 UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.6 74.3
126 New Mexico St. 71.8 74.9 72.7 73.1
127 Texas St. 68.3 70.4 69.3 69.3
128 UL-Monroe 66.2 71.4 67.0 68.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.1 107.3 109.6 108.7
Temple 106.9 106.1 107.4 106.8
Central Florida 97.5 98.8 98.3 98.2
Cincinnati 95.2 95.4 94.9 95.2
East Carolina 93.3 94.9 93.5 93.9
Connecticut 90.6 89.6 90.1 90.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 109.6 108.5 111.0 109.7
Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.9 104.8
Memphis 104.2 102.3 103.1 103.2
Navy 103.7 102.1 103.5 103.1
SMU 91.4 90.9 93.5 92.0
Tulane 83.3 87.4 83.9 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 129.3 124.7 129.4 127.8
Clemson 129.5 122.4 128.6 126.8
Florida St. 118.8 112.6 117.9 116.4
North Carolina St. 105.3 102.4 104.9 104.2
Wake Forest 102.3 100.9 102.8 102.0
Syracuse 101.2 97.9 99.6 99.6
Boston College 97.1 95.9 96.4 96.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.6 117.3 118.9 118.3
North Carolina 119.9 113.6 120.0 117.8
Miami 117.3 111.6 116.8 115.2
Pittsburgh 113.2 109.5 112.2 111.6
Georgia Tech 107.5 103.5 106.2 105.7
Virginia 103.6 101.0 103.0 102.5
Duke 102.2 102.0 101.6 101.9
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.3 110.5
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.2 118.8 119.8 119.6
Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.3 115.0 115.5
West Virginia 111.6 110.9 111.0 111.2
Texas 110.5 111.6 109.9 110.7
TCU 110.3 111.8 109.4 110.5
Baylor 109.3 109.8 109.7 109.6
Kansas St. 106.6 108.8 106.5 107.3
Texas Tech 104.4 103.6 102.9 103.7
Iowa St. 99.0 98.5 98.4 98.6
Kansas 83.1 88.0 80.6 83.9
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.8 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 131.9 129.4 132.1 131.1
Ohio St. 125.7 125.0 126.2 125.6
Penn St. 114.6 115.4 114.3 114.8
Indiana 102.9 104.6 102.4 103.3
Michigan St. 103.3 102.5 101.6 102.5
Maryland 99.6 102.2 97.9 99.9
Rutgers 92.3 90.1 91.0 91.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 116.6 114.3 117.3 116.1
Iowa 109.2 107.0 108.7 108.3
Nebraska 109.1 106.4 108.8 108.1
Northwestern 109.5 105.8 108.5 107.9
Minnesota 105.5 104.4 105.0 105.0
Illinois 95.7 92.5 94.7 94.3
Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
         
Big Ten Averages 107.7 106.4 107.1 107.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 105.5 103.1 106.6 105.1
Middle Tennessee 92.6 93.7 93.1 93.1
Old Dominion 87.6 90.9 88.4 89.0
Marshall 80.7 84.5 81.3 82.2
Florida International 79.4 83.8 79.8 81.0
Charlotte 77.1 82.6 77.9 79.2
Florida Atlantic 76.0 80.7 78.8 78.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 97.8 99.6 99.7 99.0
Southern Mississippi 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7
UTSA 85.5 92.0 87.9 88.5
North Texas 81.1 84.3 81.7 82.4
Rice 75.2 81.9 75.3 77.5
UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.6 74.3
         
CUSA Averages 84.6 87.9 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 111.2 108.0 109.8 109.7
BYU 110.5 105.2 110.4 108.7
Army 90.9 97.6 92.6 93.7
Massachusetts 80.0 86.3 81.1 82.5
         
Independents Averages 98.2 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.5 92.6 94.0
Miami (O) 89.3 90.2 90.8 90.1
Kent St. 87.4 89.2 88.1 88.3
Akron 82.6 88.1 83.7 84.8
Bowling Green 81.7 82.2 81.7 81.9
Buffalo 75.8 82.8 76.3 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 112.5 115.0 113.6
Toledo 103.1 103.6 103.9 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.8 96.1 96.1 95.7
Central Michigan 92.8 94.7 93.1 93.5
Eastern Michigan 85.3 87.6 85.6 86.2
Ball St. 85.1 87.2 86.1 86.1
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.3 105.5 105.1 105.0
Air Force 96.7 98.4 97.1 97.4
New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
Wyoming 94.6 94.6 95.7 95.0
Colorado St. 92.4 94.2 93.3 93.3
Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.4 106.8 110.4 108.6
Nevada 85.5 87.8 86.2 86.5
UNLV 85.3 88.4 85.4 86.4
San Jose St. 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.7
Hawaii 82.6 81.8 82.4 82.3
Fresno St. 77.1 80.6 76.8 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.5 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 130.8 123.5 130.6 128.3
Washington St. 116.4 113.5 116.2 115.4
Stanford 114.2 108.3 113.5 112.0
Oregon 105.9 104.0 105.0 105.0
California 102.9 96.2 100.5 99.9
Oregon St. 97.1 92.5 95.8 95.1
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 118.9 114.2 116.8 116.6
Colorado 117.5 113.1 117.3 116.0
Utah 112.0 106.5 110.4 109.6
UCLA 110.2 108.6 109.5 109.4
Arizona St. 104.2 103.1 102.8 103.4
Arizona 95.1 92.9 93.6 93.9
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.2 115.2 114.8
Florida 112.2 113.8 110.5 112.2
Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
Vanderbilt 103.3 99.9 102.2 101.8
Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
South Carolina 100.1 99.7 99.8 99.9
Missouri 97.5 97.2 96.7 97.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 136.1 129.4 136.0 133.8
LSU 124.6 119.5 124.2 122.8
Auburn 122.3 120.0 122.3 121.5
Texas A&M 116.2 114.4 115.7 115.4
Arkansas 112.4 108.0 110.7 110.4
Ole Miss 112.0 107.9 110.7 110.2
Mississippi St. 109.4 107.7 108.6 108.6
         
SEC Averages 112.2 110.0 111.4 111.2
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.6 100.0 101.4 100.3
Troy 93.3 98.0 95.3 95.6
Arkansas St. 91.6 93.7 93.4 92.9
Georgia Southern 90.0 89.4 91.8 90.4
South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
Georgia St. 82.0 86.6 83.8 84.1
Idaho 80.6 86.0 82.5 83.0
UL-Lafayette 76.9 82.9 78.4 79.4
New Mexico St. 71.8 74.9 72.7 73.1
Texas St. 68.3 70.4 69.3 69.3
UL-Monroe 66.2 71.4 67.0 68.2
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.0 85.6 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.2 110.0 111.4 111.2
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.3 110.5
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big Ten 107.7 106.4 107.1 107.1
5 Big 12 107.0 107.8 106.3 107.1
6 AAC 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.2
7 Independents 98.2 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.5 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
10 CUSA 84.6 87.9 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.0 85.6 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Michigan
3 Clemson
4 Louisville
5 Washington
6 Ohio St.
7 Wisconsin
8 Auburn
9 Western Michigan
10 Colorado
11 Penn St.
12 Texas A&M
13 Oklahoma
14 Washington St.
15 Florida St.
16 USC
17 Virginia Tech
18 LSU
19 West Virginia
20 Boise St.
21 North Carolina
22 Nebraska
23 Utah
24 Tennessee
25 Florida
26 Stanford
27 Arkansas
28 Houston
29 Oklahoma St.
30 South Florida
31 San Diego St.
32 Tulsa
33 Troy
34 Appalachian St.
35 Minnesota
36 Temple
37 Miami (Fla)
38 BYU
39 Ole Miss
40 Navy
41 Toledo
42 Baylor
43 Wyoming
44 Western Kentucky
45 Pittsburgh
46 Iowa
47 Northwestern
48 Kansas St.
49 Georgia
50 Memphis
51 Arizona St.
52 Texas
53 TCU
54 Louisiana Tech
55 Georgia Tech
56 Wake Forest
57 Kentucky
58 UCLA
59 California
60 Indiana
61 Central Florida
62 Maryland
63 Mississippi St.
64 South Carolina
65 North Carolina St.
66 Air Force
67 Texas Tech
68 Colorado St.
69 Oregon
70 Vanderbilt
71 New Mexico
72 Middle Tennessee
73 Ohio
74 Old Dominion
75 Syracuse
76 Notre Dame
77 Boston College
78 Oregon St.
79 Duke
80 SMU
81 Arkansas St.
82 Idaho
83 Illinois
84 Army
85 Eastern Michigan
86 Georgia Southern
87 Southern Miss.
88 Central Michigan
89 UTSA
90 Akron
91 Cincinnati
92 Michigan St.
93 East Carolina
94 Utah St.
95 Arizona
96 Northern Illinois
97 South Alabama
98 Virginia
99 Missouri
100 Miami (O)
101 Rutgers
102 Hawaii
103 Purdue
104 Kent St.
105 Connecticut
106 Tulane
107 Ball St.
108 North Texas
109 Charlotte
110 Iowa St.
111 UL-Lafayette
112 Georgia St.
113 UNLV
114 San Jose St.
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico St.
117 Florida Int’l.
118 UL-Monroe
119 Massachusetts
120 UTEP
121 Bowling Green
122 Marshall
123 Kansas
124 Buffalo
125 Texas St.
126 Florida Atlantic
127 Fresno St.
128 Rice

 

This Week’s Games–November 8-12
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan 2.8 2.6 3.5
Kent St. Western Michigan -22.8 -20.3 -23.9
         
Wednesday, November 9
Akron Bowling Green 2.9 8.9 4.0
Northern Illinois Toledo -5.3 -4.5 -4.8
         
Thursday, November 10
Duke Northern Carolina -16.2 -10.1 -16.9
Georgia Southern UL-Lafayette 15.6 9.0 15.9
Arizona St. Utah -4.8 -0.4 -4.6
         
Friday, November 11
Florida St. Boston College 24.7 19.7 24.5
         
Saturday, November 12
Oklahoma Baylor 13.9 12.0 13.1
Alabama Mississippi St. 29.7 24.7 30.4
Florida South Carolina 15.1 17.1 13.7
Tennessee Kentucky 17.9 14.2 17.7
Central Florida Cincinnati 5.3 6.4 6.4
East Carolina SMU 4.9 7.0 3.0
Navy Tulsa 2.6 -0.3 1.6
Kansas Iowa St. -13.4 -8.0 -15.3
Texas West Virginia 1.9 3.7 1.9
Michigan St. Rutgers 14.0 15.4 13.6
Indiana Penn St. -8.7 -7.8 -8.9
Purdue Northwestern -15.2 -13.1 -15.5
Syracuse North Carolina St. -1.1 -1.5 -2.3
Buffalo Miami (O) -11.0 -4.9 -12.0
Charlotte Rice 4.4 3.2 5.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -10.7 -7.6 -10.8
Georgia St. UL-Monroe 17.8 17.2 18.8
Arkansas St. New Mexico St. 22.8 21.8 23.7
UNLV Wyoming -6.3 -3.2 -7.3
Georgia Auburn -12.0 -10.1 -12.9
Missouri Vanderbilt -2.8 0.3 -2.5
Army (N) Notre Dame -20.3 -10.4 -17.2
Clemson Pittsburgh 19.3 15.9 19.4
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 14.1 16.8 15.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA 15.3 10.6 14.8
Western Kentucky North Texas 27.4 21.8 27.9
Old Dominion Southern Miss. 2.1 5.3 2.6
Troy Appalachian St. -2.7 1.0 -3.1
Wisconsin Illinois 23.4 24.3 25.1
Houston Tulane 29.3 24.1 30.1
Maryland Ohio St. -23.1 -19.8 -25.3
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 13.8 15.7 15.1
Texas St. Idaho -9.3 -12.6 -10.2
Oregon Stanford -5.3 -1.3 -5.5
Florida Atlantic UTEP 6.6 6.8 8.2
Hawaii Boise St. -18.2 -21.2 -19.2
Marshall Middle Tennessee -8.9 -6.2 -8.8
Louisville Wake Forest 30.0 26.8 29.6
Arkansas LSU -9.2 -8.5 -10.5
Memphis South Florida -1.9 -2.0 -3.5
Nebraska Minnesota 6.6 5.0 6.8
Texas A&M Ole Miss 7.2 9.5 8.0
Washington USC 14.9 12.3 16.8
Iowa Michigan -19.7 -19.4 -20.4
UCLA Oregon St. 16.1 19.1 16.7
Arizona Colorado -19 -17.2 -20.7
Air Force Colorado St. 6 6.4 6.8
Utah St. New Mexico -3.0 -2.5 -4.1
Nevada San Diego St. -19.9 -16.0 -21.2
Washington St. California 16.5 20.3 18.7

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC San Diego St. vs. Arizona St.
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. Ga. Southern
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (Ohio) vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Temple vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. La. Tech
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Colorado St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Houston vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. TCU
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Tulsa vs. {Hawaii}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Army} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND S. Carolina vs. [Charlotte]
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Idaho] vs. W. Kentucky
Military ACC/ND AAC South Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 N. Carolina vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. USC
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Tennessee
Birmingham AAC SEC {S.Alabama} vs. Ole Miss
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla.) vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Wash. St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Wake Forest vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Air Force
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Iowa vs. Kentucky
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Virginia Tech vs. Penn St.
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Louisville
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Washington vs. Western Mich.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Michigan
           
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

We have been asked to explain what is the difference between at-large and alternate selections.

At-large selections are bowl-eligible teams from conferences that have more teams than allotted bowls.  For instance if the American Athletic Conference has eight bowl tie-ins, but they have nine bowl eligible teams, one of the nine would be an at-large team in another bowl that does not have a team due to a league not having enough bowl eligible teams.

Alternate teams are those that must be used to fill bowls even though they are not actually bowl-eligible.  There are multiple ways a team can be considered an alternate choice, and it goes according to this hieracrchy.

  1. 6-6 teams that beat two FCS opponents.  Only one FCS win is allowed to count toward bowl eligibility.  Army and South Alabama both could finish 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents.
  2. 6-7 teams that won their division and lost in their conference championship game.  There is little to no chance that such an event will happen this year, but there is a very slim chance that a 6-6 team could win the SEC East and then lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
  3. 6-7 teams that played 13 regular season games.  Hawaii is likely to be 6-7 this year.
  4. 5-7 teams with the highest APR Scores.  If there are still openings needed after the above three criteria have been applied, the teams with the highest APR scores will receive what’s left.  Last year, three schools with 5-7 records received bowl bids (all three won their bowls).

Here are the list of possible 5-7 teams ranked in order of highest APR Scores

Duke

Vanderbilt

Army

Georgia Tech

North Texas

Boston College

Missouri

Utah St.

Syracuse

UCLA

Mississippi St.

 

The Alternate teams will choose which bowls they wish to attend in order of the hierarchy herein.  Thus, the lowest team in the hierarchy will get the last bowl that is left.

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