The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 4, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 5: October 6-10, 2016

He’s Baaaaaaaaaack

Our commentary this week could be reduced to just two words for the Twitterverse readers–Tom Brady.

In no uncertain terms, Brady would love to come back with such gusto, anger, wrath, and all other negative or evil emotions and force Commissioner Roger Goodell to hand a fully inflated trophy to him in February.  How will Brady play after having a month-long sabbatical?

He gets a breather to begin his return, as the Patriots play Cleveland.  The Patriots could name the score if they really wanted to punish the NFL, but running up the score on Cleveland is like Sonny  Liston beating a Bantam Weight boxer (for you Twitterkind, Google Sonny Liston).

Our guess is that a combination of rustiness and pressing will lead Brady and the Pats to an underachieving win, so be careful about believing New England’s players’ fantasy points and the Vegas Spread will present basement bargains for you.

Yet Another Rookie QB Star

Last week, we reported on the prowess of rookie quarterbacks Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Jacoby Brissett.  We referred to Cody Kessler in a previous report.  Now, you can add another rookie signal-caller to the fold of capable leaders.  Denver’s Paxton Lynch replaced the injured Trevor Siemian last week, and he directed the Broncos to an impressive victory over the Tampa Bay Bucs.

On his first full drive after coming in on third and long in the previous drive, Lynch led the Broncos’ two-minute drill (actually just 1:19 left in the first half) brilliantly. Starting at the Bronco 33-yard line, he connected with Jordan Norwood across the middle for four yards and then followed it up with a 16-yard strike to Emmanuel Sanders.

After a sack and incomplete pass, Lynch connected with Sanders again, this time for 18 yards and a first down inside the Tampa Bay 30.  Following a timeout and incomplete pass, Lynch once again found Sanders open for nine yards, just short of a first down.  The Broncos called their final time out with 15 seconds remaining in the half and facing third and one.  The Broncos kicked a field goal after an incomplete pass, to take a 17-7 lead into the locker.

Lynch directed the Broncos to 10 second-half points and finished the day with 170 passing yards and a touchdown on 14 of 24 passing.  The final drive for the fourth quarter touchdown was very Elwaysian, as Lynch operated the four-minute offense to perfection, as he took the Broncos on an 80-yard, nine-play drive that took more than four minutes off the clock and ended when he rolled out and connected on a touchdown pass with Sanders from the five yard line.

Who starts for Denver when Siemian is okay to play again?  Siemian did nothing wrong when he was in for the defending Super Bowl champions.  He was more of an excellent game manager.  Lynch is more like a gunslinger, part John Elway and part Kenny Stabler.  He marches to the beat of a different drummer, but he is also the Broncos first round pick.  Expect Lynch to eventually become the number one QB, and once he does, the Broncos might be Super Bowl worthy again.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 106.9 105.2 107.4 106.5 64 43
Buffalo 103.3 103.6 103.9 103.6 61 43
N. Y. Jets 100.1 98.5 101.0 99.9 60 40
Miami 95.2 96.0 94.9 95.3 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 106.3 105.7 107.6 106.5 66 41
Cincinnati 105.4 104.7 106.2 105.5 63 43
Baltimore 98.4 100.6 98.0 99.0 62 37
Cleveland 90.2 91.1 89.8 90.4 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 99.1 100.2 99.0 99.4 62 37
Indianapolis 96.5 98.4 95.7 96.9 61 36
Jacksonville 95.3 97.0 94.6 95.6 59 37
Tennessee 93.6 95.3 93.1 94.0 55 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 109.4 106.6 109.7 108.5 64 45
Kansas City 101.3 100.9 101.9 101.4 63 38
Oakland 98.8 99.8 98.9 99.2 64 35
San Diego 98.9 100.1 98.2 99.1 64 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.5 101.5 104.2 103.4 64 39
Washington 98.0 98.6 97.9 98.2 61 37
N.Y. Giants 98.0 97.6 97.7 97.8 62 36
Dallas 96.7 96.7 96.6 96.7 57 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 106.7 105.4 107.2 106.4 62 44
Green Bay 104.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 64 40
Detroit 98.3 98.1 97.8 98.1 61 37
Chicago 93.5 91.8 93.1 92.8 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 104.7 104.1 105.1 104.6 62 43
Atlanta 101.0 103.4 101.3 101.9 66 36
New Orleans 97.2 99.5 96.6 97.8 64 34
Tampa Bay 93.1 94.0 92.1 93.1 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.7 104.4 108.6 106.9 63 44
Arizona 104.7 102.6 105.2 104.2 66 38
Los Angeles 99.7 100.8 99.5 100.0 57 43
San Francisco 93.2 94.2 93.0 93.5 55 39

This Week’s PiRate Spreads & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
San Francisco Arizona -8.5 -5.4 -9.2 46
Baltimore Washington 1.9 3.5 1.6 50
Cleveland New England -13.7 -11.1 -14.6 45
Detroit Philadelphia -3.7 -0.9 -4.9 50
Indianapolis Chicago 5.5 9.1 5.1 44
Miami Tennessee 4.6 3.7 4.8 37
Minnesota Houston 10.6 8.2 11.2 45
Pittsburgh New York Jets 9.2 10.2 9.6 47
Denver Atlanta 11.4 6.2 11.4 50
Dallas Cincinnati -5.7 -5.0 -6.6 39
Los Angeles Buffalo -0.6 0.2 -1.4 34
Oakland San Diego 2.9 2.7 3.7 59
Green Bay New York Giants 9.4 9.1 9.7 51
Carolina Tampa Bay 14.6 13.1 16.0 43

 

 

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