The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 3, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 5-8, 2016

5-7 Bowl Teams Could Increase This Year

Last year, Minnesota, Nebraska, and San Jose State finished with 5-7 regular season records but received bowl bids when only 77 FBS teams were bowl eligible at the end of the season.  These three schools held the three highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) Scores of the teams finishing 5-7.  As luck would have it, all three schools won their bowl games.

This year, the number of teams failing to reach 6-6 or better records could be fewer than last year’s 77.  It could be as low as 71 or 72, meaning there could be bowls where both teams are 5-7, and there could be bowls that have to invite teams with fanbases so small, they could arrive at the bowl in a bus.

The logical reply is that there are too many bowls, and this is quite obvious to all with half a brain.  The actual reply is that these bowls exist to make money for the sponsors, or at least to attempt to make money for the sponsors (advertising plays a major part in making money for a corporation).

The intelligent thing to do would be to expand the playoffs to eight teams, and use seven bowls to play these games.  Then, cap the number of bowls so that there can be no more than 40 in a single season.  With seven of the 40 being used for the Playoffs, and with eight teams qualifying for the Playoffs, 66 additional teams would receive bowl bids, removing the bottom six of the current 80 without a bowl.  In most years, there should be 66 bowl eligible teams after the Playoff spots had been awarded.

Best of all, with an expansion to eight Playoff teams, all five Power 5 Conference Champions could be guaranteed an automatic spot in the Playoffs.  It would leave room for three at-large teams with the top Group of 5 team getting one of those three bids.

With a need for up to six to eight 5-7 teams to fill bowl spots this year, the APR scores could go quite low, because maybe a dozen schools will finish 5-7.  Let’s take a look at the possible contenders for 5-7 bowl invitations.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Boston College, Duke, North Carolina St., and Virginia are battling it out for bowl eligibility, and Wake Forest and Georgia Tech could fall back into this pack.  Syracuse is on the outside, looking in, but the Orangemen cannot be eliminated, as Dino Babers creates major headaches for defensive coordinators.

The ACC should have 10 Bowl Eligible participants, counting Notre Dame as one of the 10.  Clemson is an odds-on team to make the Playoffs, while Louisville should earn a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Miami, North Carolina, or Virginia Tech could sneak in as a third conference member playing in a NY6 bowl, and the league has 10 bowl allotments to fill.  This would leave two bowls without ACC bowl eligible teams, likely the Quick Lane and St. Petersburg Bowls.  The ACC voted in the Spring to require 7-5 records for bowl eligibility, but this is just a ceremonial rule until the rest of the FBS follows suit.  There will be 6-6 teams in this league playing in bowls.

Big 12

Texas now appears headed to a probable 5-7 record, and Charles Strong will not survive such a performance in Austin.  Kansas State and Texas Tech are most likely going to be bowl eligible, while Iowa State and Kansas are sure not to be.  That leaves seven bowl eligible teams.  The league most likely will be out in the cold in the Playoff race, as Oklahoma won’t get in with two wins, and neither Baylor nor West Virginia do not look like 12-0 teams.

However, it is possible and actually probable that the number two team in this league will end up in the Cotton Bowl, as one of the NY6 selections.  This means seven bowl eligible teams will come up one short for the Big 12’s seven bowl bids.  The Armed Forces Bowl would be the odd-bowl out.

Big Ten

The Big Ten may not be as strong overall as the SEC, but the top half surely is right there at the top.  Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska remain undefeated overall, as some expected, but Maryland is now 4-0 under first year coach D.J. Durkin, the former assistant to Jim Harbaugh and before that Urban Meyer.  Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan State figure to become bowl eligible, while Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern will compete for bowl eligibility.  Looking at the schedules, it is our current opinion that Iowa and Northwestern will finish 5-7, while Illinois loses at least eight games.

The Ohio State-Michigan winner is an odds-on favorite to claim the number one or number two overall seed in the Playoffs after disposing of the West Division champion in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The loser of this game should head to Pasadena, while the third best team in the league competes with the third best ACC team for the final NY6 Bowl spot.

We see nine league teams gaining bowl eligibility, and for now, we are going with just two making NY6 appearances.  This would require 10 bowl eligible teams, so the Heart of Dallas Bowl would be forced to find a replacement.

Pac-12

This is where there could be a lot of interesting happenings.  Who thought that Oregon might not be bowl eligible this season?  The Ducks have the look of 5-7.  Washington State, California, Arizona, and the UCLA-USC loser will contend for the final bowl spots, with three of the four probably gaining bowl eligiblity.  At the moment, we have Arizona as the odd team out.

The key in the Pac-12 is Washington.  Can the Huskies run the table, win the Pac-12 Championship Game, and make the Playoffs at 13-0?  The PiRates believe this league is too tough to win out on the road, and UW has road games remaining against Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Washington St.  It is our belief that the Huskies will go 12-1 and miss out on the Playoffs if Houston runs the table.

Because of this, UW would then play in the Rose Bowl.  Due to the parity, we do not foresee a second Pac-12 team receving a NY6 Bowl bid, and the league only has seven bowl tie-ins.  With nine probably bowl eligible teams, two of them would be shipped to other bowls as at-large invitees.  Not to worry, because there will be ample spots available and a team like Cal or Washington State would be at the top of the priority list.

SEC

Assuming Alabama continues to add to their dynasty, put the Crimson Tide in the Playoffs as one of the top two seeds.  The winner of this week’s Texas A&M-Tennessee game could finish with 11 wins and definitely receive the Sugar Bowl bid, while the loser could receive the Orange Bowl bid.

Now, look at the bottom.  In the East, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt, and in the West, Mississippi State will all contend for 5-7 records.  One of these five should be exactly 5-7, and there is a strong possibility that one of the 5-7 teams will earn a bowl bid.

Considering just bowl eligible teams, the SEC is looking at nine getting to 6-6 or better.  When you remove the NY6 invitees, it leaves six schools for the remaining nine bowls, so the Independence, Birmingham, and Music City Bowls are likely to invite at-large teams.

Group of 5 Leagues

AAC

Will Houston run the table, including a win over Louisville?  If so, the Cougars stand a 50-50 chance of making the Playoffs.  Remember, that game with the Cardinals is in Houston.  Houston is virtually guaranteed at least a NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl if they do not make the Playoffs, so the AAC will need nine bowl eligible teams to satisfy its bowl allotments.

Our crystal ball says that seven AAC teams will become bowl eligible, so there will be two more bowl openings for at-large invitees.  Since this league does not prioritize their bowls, and only Navy is really tied to one bowl, it is a pure guess to select the unfortunate bowls that will have to find replacement teams.

As for 5-7 possibles, it would not surprise us if UConn finishes with that record.  Cincinnati could fall into that category as well.  We had Central Florida in that boat last week, but we now believe UCF will get to 6-6.

CUSA

Conference USA is out of any NY6 consideration this year, so it is a cut and dry six bowl bids with a possible seventh with a secondary allotment at the Independence Bowl.  It looks like six schools will be bowl eligible, so once again the Independence Bowl sponsors will be burning the Midnight oil trying to find teams.

MAC

In past years, the Mid-American Conference has benefited from the lack of bowl eligible teams elsewhere and sent one or two extra teams to bowls.  We see more of the same this year, as the league has five bowl tie-ins and it looks like seven teams will be bowl eligible.

It is a long shot, but Western Michigan could sneak into the Cotton Bowl if the Broncos run the table and Houston and Boise State both lose a game.  For now, we say WMU wins the MAC with a 12-1 record and possibly 13-0.  At 13-0, some back room deals could be made to take the Broncos out of a MAC bowl and pair them up with a possible undefeated team from another Group of 5 league.

Pay close attention to the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game in Mid-November.  The winner is likely to squeeze in as the seventh bowl eligible team in the league.  If EMU can win this game, it would be the first time the Eagles make a bowl since 1987.

MWC

San Diego State’s losing to South Alabama hurt Boise State’s chances to pad a resume in the event that Houston loses a game this year.  The Broncos could go 13-0 and not make a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  They still must get past Air Force, and the Falcons have yet to lose this year.

This league is very muddled at this point, and there could be more teams with seven losses than in any other conference.  In the Mountain Division, the bottom four teams could all finish 5-7, but the odds are that one of the four will get to 6-6.  As of today, we are going to tap Wyoming to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and make Coach Craig Bohl a top candidate in Power 5 Conference coaching vacancies in December.  Bohl turned North Dakota State into the Alabama of FCS football.

Colorado State, Utah State, and New Mexico look like 5-7 teams.  The Aggies might be the luckiest ducks in football if they finish 5-7 this year.  See below to the end of this commentary to discover why.

In the West Division, the key is Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors will receive a ticket to the front of the seven-loss line if they lose seven games, because they will be 6-7 and not 5-7.  The NCAA guidelines state that a 6-7 team trumps any 5-7 team in bowl prioritization.  If UH finishes 5-8 or worse, then a host of other 5-7 teams will breathe minor sighs of relief.

The other part of the equation in the West Division is what happens with the two teams from the Silver State.  Nevada and UNLV are as mysterious as Area 51 this year.  The Wolf Pack played well at Notre Dame and then laid an egg in Hawaii.  The Rebels look to be on the cusp of turning things around with future star coach Tony Sanchez.  For our own sanity, we will give both schools promotions to 6-6, but that could change in a week.

Sun Belt

Like CUSA, the SBC is not a contender for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  The league has four bids with a secondary fifth bid, and in all likelihood, there will be four bowl eligible teams.

Independents

We count Notre Dame as an ACC team, since they are open to appear in the ACC’s bowls and can leapfrog over any ACC team with a one game better record.

Massachusetts is not a bowl contender this year, but the Minutemen are an improved school and could be in contention in the next two years.

Army and BYU are the other two independent schools, and the Black Knights of West Point are going to end their bowl drought this year.  BYU is on the bubble.  The Cougars are going to have to fight and claw their way to a 6-6 record.  BYU is guaranteed a spot in the Poinsettia Bowl if they get to 6-6.  Army does not have a bowl tie-in this year due to their failure to compete for a bowl for the last several years, but the Cadets will definitely get a bowl bid with a 6-6 or better record.  They should be at least 7-5, and who knows: they could even win that 12th regular season game this year.

The Academic Progress Rate

The APR decides which 5-7 teams get bowl bids and which do not if there are openings remaining after all bowl eligible teams have been selected.  We believe this week that four 5-7 teams will receive bowl invitations with just 76 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  With four bowl openings, the top four 5-7 teams according to APR scores would receive those bids.  It does not matter if Oregon or Iowa is 5-7 and gets overlooked as a school like Duke or Boston College is also 5-7.  Here is the list of probable 5-7 teams ranked in order of APR score.  Because so many of the top APR scores belong to teams that figure to already be bowl eligible, it could take the 75th best APR score to fill a bowl.

  1. Duke
  2. Northwestern
  3. Vanderbilt
  4. Georgia Tech
  5. Central Florida
  6. Illinois
  7. Boston College
  8. Missouri
  9. Utah St.
  10. South Carolina

What this means is that if Duke finishes 5-7 and there is at least one bowl spot open, the Blue Devils automatically receive that bid.

The rules state that the 5-7 teams that qualify for bowls get to select the remaining bowls that are open in the order of their APR ranking.  For example, let’s say there are four bowl spots remaining and Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech all finish 5-7.

Duke would select which of the four bowls that they wish to accept an invitation.  Northwestern would then select which of the remaining three bowls that they wish to accept.  Vanderbilt would then select from the remaining two bowls, and Georgia Tech would receive what was left.

Our wacky bowl selections are at the conclusion of this commentary.

Here are This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Predictive

For newcomers to this site, we supply two types of ratings.  Predictive ratings look forward to the next week’s games and do not act as rankings.  You will see that Louisville is rated ahead of Clemson in our Predictive Ratings, because we believe that if the two teams played this week on a neutral field, Louisville would win.

We look at each game and re-create a logical score of each game based on the statistical and play-by-play data.  Two 28-14 scores can be totally different.  In one instance, the game could have been 28-0 with five minutes left to play, and the second string of the losing team scored two late TDs.  In another instance, the score could be 21-14 with a few minutes left to play, and the trailing team driving in the Red Zone for the tying score, before a pick six at the end makes the game 28-14 rather than 21-21.  Our ratings differentiate between these two outcomes.

We have three separate Predictive Ratings, each using a different logarithm to come up with a power rating number.  We then supply an average for the three.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
2 Ohio St. 126.6 125.7 128.1 126.8
3 Louisville 127.6 121.9 127.7 125.7
4 Michigan 124.5 122.0 125.0 123.8
5 Washington 124.4 116.9 124.3 121.9
6 Clemson 124.8 116.8 123.8 121.8
7 LSU 123.6 118.4 122.8 121.6
8 Tennessee 121.7 118.3 121.4 120.5
9 Oklahoma 120.3 117.8 120.3 119.5
10 Miami 120.9 113.9 120.9 118.6
11 Houston 118.3 116.2 120.6 118.4
12 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.1 116.6
13 Florida St. 118.8 112.0 117.9 116.2
14 North Carolina 118.1 111.5 117.8 115.8
15 Texas A&M 116.2 114.7 115.9 115.6
16 Auburn 115.8 114.2 115.8 115.3
17 Oklahoma St. 114.9 115.7 114.9 115.2
18 Stanford 117.7 110.7 116.6 115.0
19 Ole Miss 117.1 110.9 116.6 114.9
20 Wisconsin 114.4 112.4 114.9 113.9
21 Colorado 114.8 110.4 115.2 113.5
22 Pittsburgh 114.8 111.2 114.1 113.4
23 TCU 113.1 114.2 112.8 113.4
24 Florida 112.4 115.0 110.6 112.7
25 USC 114.7 110.5 112.0 112.4
26 UCLA 112.7 111.2 112.4 112.1
27 Nebraska 112.9 109.3 112.9 111.7
28 Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
29 Baylor 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.3
30 South Florida 111.9 109.2 112.9 111.3
31 Western Michigan 110.9 109.8 112.8 111.2
32 Mississippi St. 112.0 109.8 111.1 111.0
33 Iowa 112.2 109.1 111.5 110.9
34 Texas 110.0 111.7 109.0 110.2
35 Arkansas 112.5 108.1 109.9 110.2
36 Michigan St. 110.2 109.6 108.5 109.4
37 Boise St. 108.1 109.2 109.6 109.0
38 Washington St. 109.5 106.7 109.4 108.6
39 Georgia 108.9 108.3 108.3 108.5
40 Oregon 109.0 107.5 108.2 108.2
41 Kansas St. 106.9 109.8 106.8 107.8
42 Utah 110.3 104.7 108.0 107.7
43 Georgia Tech 109.4 105.1 108.3 107.6
44 BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
45 North Carolina St. 108.1 105.8 107.6 107.2
46 West Virginia 107.6 106.5 107.0 107.0
47 Maryland 106.4 109.7 104.4 106.8
48 Arizona St. 107.0 106.5 105.8 106.5
49 Texas Tech 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2
50 Northwestern 107.5 102.6 106.0 105.4
51 Penn St. 104.7 106.6 103.5 104.9
52 Toledo 104.8 103.2 105.8 104.6
53 Memphis 106.5 102.3 104.8 104.6
54 Minnesota 103.8 102.5 103.5 103.3
55 Indiana 101.9 105.3 101.2 102.8
56 Arizona 103.8 101.5 102.7 102.7
57 Air Force 102.3 102.7 102.9 102.6
58 California 105.8 98.2 103.7 102.6
59 Virginia 103.3 101.0 102.8 102.4
60 Missouri 102.7 101.7 102.3 102.3
61 San Diego St. 101.5 99.1 103.9 101.5
62 Boston College 101.4 101.2 101.3 101.3
63 Wake Forest 101.8 100.2 101.1 101.1
64 Vanderbilt 102.5 98.6 101.2 100.8
65 Temple 100.4 100.7 100.9 100.7
66 Tulsa 98.9 101.2 99.6 99.9
67 Western Kentucky 100.9 96.5 102.0 99.8
68 Syracuse 101.3 97.7 99.6 99.6
69 Central Michigan 98.8 100.2 99.7 99.6
70 South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.5
71 Duke 99.6 99.9 98.2 99.2
72 Cincinnati 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.7
73 Appalachian St. 97.3 96.8 99.1 97.7
74 Navy 97.8 97.9 97.2 97.7
75 Iowa St. 97.9 97.5 97.1 97.5
76 Kentucky 96.4 98.7 95.3 96.8
77 Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
78 Illinois 97.8 94.5 97.0 96.5
79 Connecticut 96.7 94.5 96.4 95.9
80 Utah St. 94.4 96.7 94.3 95.1
81 Troy 92.9 97.5 94.9 95.1
82 Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.9 95.3 94.9
83 Middle Tennessee 94.1 95.5 94.6 94.7
84 Central Florida 93.7 96.1 94.0 94.6
85 Ohio 91.5 99.7 92.3 94.5
86 Rutgers 95.6 93.2 94.2 94.4
87 New Mexico 92.5 95.2 93.2 93.7
88 Northern Illinois 92.0 93.5 92.9 92.8
89 Purdue 93.2 91.5 92.2 92.3
90 Georgia Southern 91.5 91.3 93.8 92.2
91 Oregon St. 94.2 90.1 92.2 92.2
92 East Carolina 91.3 93.6 91.3 92.1
93 Marshall 90.0 92.7 91.7 91.5
94 Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.3 91.1 91.1
95 UNLV 89.0 93.4 89.2 90.5
96 SMU 89.9 89.6 91.9 90.5
97 Old Dominion 88.1 91.5 88.5 89.4
98 Akron 86.9 92.7 88.4 89.3
99 Nevada 87.5 90.6 88.5 88.9
100 Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
101 San Jose St. 87.5 87.9 87.8 87.7
102 Ball St. 85.8 87.6 86.6 86.7
103 South Alabama 83.8 90.9 85.2 86.6
104 Tulane 84.8 89.2 85.5 86.5
105 Wyoming 85.4 85.7 85.8 85.7
106 Colorado St. 84.6 86.9 84.9 85.5
107 Miami (O) 84.4 85.5 86.1 85.3
108 Kansas 83.7 90.1 80.8 84.9
109 Kent St. 83.8 85.3 84.0 84.4
110 Bowling Green 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.9
111 Georgia St. 81.7 86.4 83.6 83.9
112 Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
113 Eastern Michigan 81.7 85.3 82.6 83.2
114 Rice 80.7 87.5 80.7 83.0
115 UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
116 Florida Atlantic 79.7 84.3 82.1 82.0
117 Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.6 81.4
118 Buffalo 78.0 85.8 79.1 81.0
119 Florida International 78.5 83.9 78.2 80.2
120 Hawaii 80.7 79.4 79.8 80.0
121 UL-Lafayette 76.7 84.2 78.4 79.8
122 Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
123 North Texas 75.3 78.1 75.5 76.3
124 New Mexico St. 73.2 76.4 74.1 74.6
125 UTEP 71.7 75.9 73.1 73.6
126 UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
127 Charlotte 68.7 75.0 69.8 71.2
128 Texas St. 70.1 71.3 71.1 70.8

Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings are more like the poll rankings you see in the media, such as the AP and Coaches Polls.  These ratings attempt to rank from best to worst based on what the teams have done so far this year.  They are not meant to predict outcomes of future games.  Wins and schedule strength matter in these ratings, and whether a team deserved to win because they dominated a game or lucked out by winning a game they would have lost nine times out of 10, doesn’t affect their rating.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.9 109.2 112.9 111.3
Temple 100.4 100.7 100.9 100.7
Cincinnati 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.7
Connecticut 96.7 94.5 96.4 95.9
Central Florida 93.7 96.1 94.0 94.6
East Carolina 91.3 93.6 91.3 92.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 118.3 116.2 120.6 118.4
Memphis 106.5 102.3 104.8 104.6
Tulsa 98.9 101.2 99.6 99.9
Navy 97.8 97.9 97.2 97.7
SMU 89.9 89.6 91.9 90.5
Tulane 84.8 89.2 85.5 86.5
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.6 121.9 127.7 125.7
Clemson 124.8 116.8 123.8 121.8
Florida St. 118.8 112.0 117.9 116.2
North Carolina St. 108.1 105.8 107.6 107.2
Boston College 101.4 101.2 101.3 101.3
Wake Forest 101.8 100.2 101.1 101.1
Syracuse 101.3 97.7 99.6 99.6
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 120.9 113.9 120.9 118.6
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.1 116.6
North Carolina 118.1 111.5 117.8 115.8
Pittsburgh 114.8 111.2 114.1 113.4
Georgia Tech 109.4 105.1 108.3 107.6
Virginia 103.3 101.0 102.8 102.4
Duke 99.6 99.9 98.2 99.2
         
ACC Averages 111.9 108.2 111.3 110.5
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.3 117.8 120.3 119.5
Oklahoma St. 114.9 115.7 114.9 115.2
TCU 113.1 114.2 112.8 113.4
Baylor 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.3
Texas 110.0 111.7 109.0 110.2
Kansas St. 106.9 109.8 106.8 107.8
West Virginia 107.6 106.5 107.0 107.0
Texas Tech 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2
Iowa St. 97.9 97.5 97.1 97.5
Kansas 83.7 90.1 80.8 84.9
         
Big 12 Averages 107.3 108.1 106.6 107.3
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 126.6 125.7 128.1 126.8
Michigan 124.5 122.0 125.0 123.8
Michigan St. 110.2 109.6 108.5 109.4
Maryland 106.4 109.7 104.4 106.8
Penn St. 104.7 106.6 103.5 104.9
Indiana 101.9 105.3 101.2 102.8
Rutgers 95.6 93.2 94.2 94.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 114.4 112.4 114.9 113.9
Nebraska 112.9 109.3 112.9 111.7
Iowa 112.2 109.1 111.5 110.9
Northwestern 107.5 102.6 106.0 105.4
Minnesota 103.8 102.5 103.5 103.3
Illinois 97.8 94.5 97.0 96.5
Purdue 93.2 91.5 92.2 92.3
         
Big Ten Averages 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.4
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 100.9 96.5 102.0 99.8
Middle Tennessee 94.1 95.5 94.6 94.7
Marshall 90.0 92.7 91.7 91.5
Old Dominion 88.1 91.5 88.5 89.4
Florida Atlantic 79.7 84.3 82.1 82.0
Florida International 78.5 83.9 78.2 80.2
Charlotte 68.7 75.0 69.8 71.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.9 95.3 94.9
Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.3 91.1 91.1
Rice 80.7 87.5 80.7 83.0
UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
North Texas 75.3 78.1 75.5 76.3
UTEP 71.7 75.9 73.1 73.6
         
CUSA Averages 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
         
Independents Averages 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.5 99.7 92.3 94.5
Akron 86.9 92.7 88.4 89.3
Miami (O) 84.4 85.5 86.1 85.3
Kent St. 83.8 85.3 84.0 84.4
Bowling Green 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.9
Buffalo 78.0 85.8 79.1 81.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 110.9 109.8 112.8 111.2
Toledo 104.8 103.2 105.8 104.6
Central Michigan 98.8 100.2 99.7 99.6
Northern Illinois 92.0 93.5 92.9 92.8
Ball St. 85.8 87.6 86.6 86.7
Eastern Michigan 81.7 85.3 82.6 83.2
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.1 109.2 109.6 109.0
Air Force 102.3 102.7 102.9 102.6
Utah St. 94.4 96.7 94.3 95.1
New Mexico 92.5 95.2 93.2 93.7
Wyoming 85.4 85.7 85.8 85.7
Colorado St. 84.6 86.9 84.9 85.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 101.5 99.1 103.9 101.5
UNLV 89.0 93.4 89.2 90.5
Nevada 87.5 90.6 88.5 88.9
San Jose St. 87.5 87.9 87.8 87.7
Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.6 81.4
Hawaii 80.7 79.4 79.8 80.0
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.7 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 124.4 116.9 124.3 121.9
Stanford 117.7 110.7 116.6 115.0
Washington St. 109.5 106.7 109.4 108.6
Oregon 109.0 107.5 108.2 108.2
California 105.8 98.2 103.7 102.6
Oregon St. 94.2 90.1 92.2 92.2
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 114.8 110.4 115.2 113.5
USC 114.7 110.5 112.0 112.4
UCLA 112.7 111.2 112.4 112.1
Utah 110.3 104.7 108.0 107.7
Arizona St. 107.0 106.5 105.8 106.5
Arizona 103.8 101.5 102.7 102.7
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.7 118.3 121.4 120.5
Florida 112.4 115.0 110.6 112.7
Georgia 108.9 108.3 108.3 108.5
Missouri 102.7 101.7 102.3 102.3
Vanderbilt 102.5 98.6 101.2 100.8
South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.5
Kentucky 96.4 98.7 95.3 96.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
LSU 123.6 118.4 122.8 121.6
Texas A&M 116.2 114.7 115.9 115.6
Auburn 115.8 114.2 115.8 115.3
Ole Miss 117.1 110.9 116.6 114.9
Mississippi St. 112.0 109.8 111.1 111.0
Arkansas 112.5 108.1 109.9 110.2
         
SEC Averages 112.4 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.3 96.8 99.1 97.7
Troy 92.9 97.5 94.9 95.1
Georgia Southern 91.5 91.3 93.8 92.2
Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
South Alabama 83.8 90.9 85.2 86.6
Georgia St. 81.7 86.4 83.6 83.9
UL-Lafayette 76.7 84.2 78.4 79.8
Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
New Mexico St. 73.2 76.4 74.1 74.6
UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
Texas St. 70.1 71.3 71.1 70.8
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.4 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.9 108.2 111.3 110.5
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
4 Big Ten 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.4
5 Big 12 107.3 108.1 106.6 107.3
6 Independents 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
7 AAC 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.2
8 MWC 91.1 92.7 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
11 Sun Belt 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.6

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 5-8
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wednesday, October 5      
Arkansas St. Georgia Southern -1.0 1.2 -1.8
         
Thursday, October 6      
Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky -7.9 -1.2 -7.9
Memphis Temple 9.1 4.6 6.9
         
Friday, October 7      
Boston College Clemson -20.4 -12.6 -19.5
Central Florida Tulane 11.9 9.9 11.5
Tulsa SMU 12.0 14.6 10.7
New Mexico Boise St. -12.6 -11.0 -13.4
         
Saturday, October 8      
Connecticut Cincinnati 1.2 -1.4 0.7
North Carolina St. Notre Dame -2.0 -0.9 -1.0
Mississippi St. Auburn -0.8 -1.4 -1.7
Penn St. Maryland 1.3 -0.1 2.1
Florida LSU -8.2 -0.4 -9.2
Minnesota Iowa -5.4 -3.6 -5.0
UTSA Southern Miss. -12.9 -5.9 -11.2
Kansas TCU -26.9 -21.6 -29.5
Texas (N) Oklahoma -10.3 -6.1 -11.3
South Florida East Carolina 23.6 18.6 24.6
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 8.4 9.1 8.8
Ohio Bowling Green 9.3 17.7 10.7
Eastern Michigan Toledo -20.6 -15.4 -20.7
Navy Houston -17.5 -15.3 -20.4
Akron Miami (O) 4.5 9.2 4.3
Texas A&M Tennessee -2.5 -0.6 -2.5
North Carolina Virginia Tech 4.5 -1.7 3.7
Florida Atlantic Charlotte 23.5 11.8 14.8
Buffalo Kent St. -3.3 3.0 -2.4
Georgia St. Texas St. 14.1 17.6 15.0
Wyoming Air Force -13.9 -14.0 -14.1
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 20.0 21.2 20.8
Ohio St. Indiana 27.7 23.4 29.9
Michigan St. BYU 3.7 9.0 2.4
Illinois Purdue 7.1 8.5 7.3
Duke Army 9.8 1.7 5.4
Central Michigan Ball St. 16.0 15.6 16.1
Kentucky Vanderbilt -3.1 2.9 -2.9
USC Colorado 2.9 3.1 -0.2
San Jose St. Hawaii 10.8 12.5 12.0
Old Dominion Massachusetts 10.0 6.5 9.1
Western Michigan Northern Illinois 21.9 19.3 22.9
Rutgers Michigan -25.9 -25.8 -27.8
Arkansas Alabama -15.7 -12.3 -18.1
Kansas St. Texas Tech 2.7 6.7 4.5
North Texas Marshall -11.7 -11.6 -13.2
Nevada Fresno St. 10.3 9.1 11.9
UL-Monroe Idaho -4.0 -4.9 -4.8
Wake Forest Syracuse 3.5 5.5 4.5
South Carolina Georgia -7.0 -7.1 -6.9
Oregon Washington -12.4 -6.4 -13.1
Miami (Fla) Florida St. 4.1 3.9 5.0
UTEP Florida Int’l. -4.3 -5.5 -2.6
Oregon St. California -8.6 -5.1 -8.5
Utah Arizona 9.5 6.2 8.3
Colorado St. Utah St. -6.8 -6.8 -6.4
San Diego St. UNLV 15.5 8.7 17.7
Arizona St. UCLA -2.7 -1.7 -3.6
Stanford Washington St. 11.2 7.0 10.2

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC USC vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Army] vs. Appalachian St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Marshall vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Florida vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Tulsa vs. Western Mich.
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Boston Coll.}
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo vs. Ga. Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Southern Miss. vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND South Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Ball St.] vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND [Washington St.] vs. {South Carolina}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {Northwestern} vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Colorado
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. UCLA
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Utah
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC [N.Illinois] vs. {Utah St.}
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Florida
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Notre Dame vs. Arizona St.
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Old Dominion vs. UNLV
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. [California]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Tennessee
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Houston
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Georgia vs. Nebraska
Cotton At-Large At-Large Baylor vs. Miami (Fla.)
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} At-Large Selection of projected 5-7 team

 

 

 

 

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