The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 27, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 4: September 29-October 3, 2016

Skill Position Rookie Class Could Be Best Ever
Take a look at the passing leaders in the NFL through three weeks of the season. Two of the top quarterbacks are rookies, while another is a second year player with no experience as a rookie last year. And, none of the three are top pick in the 2016 NFL Draft Jared Goff.

Number two selection Carson Wentz has the Philadelphia Eagles off to a 3-0 start, and he has the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defensive players calling him a Hall of Fame player! Wentz torched the Steelers for 301 yards at almost 10 yards per pass attempt. For the season, Wentz has a QB Rating of 103.8. He has five TD passes with no interceptions. And, there were scouts of some teams that claimed he didn’t have the polished skills to be a first round pick! Sounds like there are some scouts that don’t have the skills to be NFL scouts.

Dak Prescott was not expected to see much action if any this year for the Dallas Cowboys, but his play could conceivably make Tony Romo the Wally Pipp of football. Combining with fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott has the Cowboys’ offense looking like the old Roger Staubach/Tony Dorsett team. Prescott is averaging 256 passing yards per game to go with a big enough running threat to force defenses to spy on him rather than key on Elliott. The threat that Prescott can fake to Elliott going one way, while keeping and going the other way is enough to give Elliott just enough room to break free for long gains.

Elliott is on pace for more than 1,460 yards rushing. Defenses have to stop his threat, which means Prescott has a bit more time to locate Dez Bryant, Jason Whitten, Terrance Williams, and the surprising Cole Beasley, who is on pace to grab more than 100 passed for close to 1,150 yards. The NFC East could be the most exciting division in the NFL thanks to the two rookie QBs joining Eli Manning to make this a wide-open race.

He is only the third string quarterback, but New England’s Jacoby Brissett isn’t that far behind Prescott talentwise. Brissett played conservatively and made few mistakes in his game and a half action after Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury against Miami.

Elliott isn’t the only running back excelling through three games. In Oakland, Jalen Richard has averaged 8.6 yards per carry, including a big touchdown run of 75 yards. Richard was an undrafted free agent, so 31 other teams missed the boat on him.

While Richard has been threatening to break off long runs with every touch, it’s another rookie in silver and black that has been picking up the bruising yards between the guards. DeAndre Washington, a fifth round pick out of Texas Tech, is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and is proving to be as efficient at picking up first downs as Hewritt Dixon and Mark van Eeghen once did for the champion Raiders’ teams of the past.

Wendell Smallwood has been a consistent gainer for the Eagles. The fifth round choice from West Virginia converted numerous first downs against Pittsburgh, rushing for five or more yards on seven different attempts after the Eagles took the lead.

As good as the quarterback and running back group of rookies are, the wide receiver spot may be the best of all. Before breaking his hand, former Baylor standout Corey Coleman was off to a smashing start with Cleveland. First round pick Will Fuller disappeared against New England last week, but the former Notre Dame star topped 100 receiving yards in both of Houston’s first two games. Sterling Shepard was highly heralded coming out of Oklahoma, and the second round choice has given Eli Manning and the Giants an excellent compliment to Odell Beckham, Jr. Fellow second round pick Michael Thomas from Ohio State could emerge as Drew Brees’ top receiver in New Orleans.

He isn’t a rookie, but it is his first year of experience, so Trevor Siemian Denver was expected to struggle and win close games with defense after losing Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler. Osweiler is doing a less than mediocre job with Houston, while rookie Trevor Siemian looks like a long-term solution in the Mile High City. Siemian has looked better in each successive game so far, and he looked like an Elway or Manning in Denver’s road win against the Bengals. He passed for 312 yards and four scores against a playoff-caliber defense, as the Broncos improved to 3-0.

 

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 104.1 102.1 104.8 103.7 61 43
Buffalo 101.1 101.7 101.5 101.4 60 41
N. Y. Jets 101.6 99.6 102.6 101.3 61 42
Miami 95.3 96.2 95.1 95.5 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Cincinnati 105.3 104.5 106.0 105.3 62 43
Pittsburgh 103.4 103.0 104.4 103.6 64 40
Baltimore 98.8 101.0 98.5 99.4 61 38
Cleveland 90.7 91.6 90.3 90.9 57 34
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 99.2 100.3 99.2 99.6 62 38
Indianapolis 97.3 99.1 96.5 97.6 61 37
Jacksonville 95.0 96.8 94.3 95.4 58 37
Tennessee 93.5 95.2 92.9 93.9 54 40
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 108.3 105.2 108.6 107.3 63 44
Kansas City 104.2 103.6 105.1 104.3 64 40
San Diego 99.7 100.7 99.2 99.9 64 36
Oakland 98.1 99.1 98.1 98.4 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.5 101.5 104.2 103.4 62 38
Washington 98.0 98.6 97.9 98.2 61 37
N.Y. Giants 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0 62 37
Dallas 95.9 95.9 95.6 95.8 56 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 106.2 105.0 106.9 106.0 60 43
Green Bay 104.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 64 40
Detroit 99.2 99.0 98.8 99.0 62 37
Chicago 93.1 91.3 92.6 92.4 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 107.1 106.1 107.8 107.0 64 43
Atlanta 98.6 101.4 98.6 99.5 64 36
New Orleans 96.9 99.4 96.1 97.5 64 34
Tampa Bay 95.2 96.4 94.2 95.3 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.7 103.8 107.5 106.0 63 43
Arizona 106.5 104.3 107.1 106.0 68 38
Los Angeles 98.9 100.1 98.6 99.2 57 42
San Francisco 95.0 96.0 95.0 95.3 56 39

This Week’s Spreads

September 29-October 3, 2016

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Cincinnati Miami 13.0 11.3 13.9 42
Jacksonville (*) Indianapolis -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 45
Atlanta Carolina -6.0 -2.2 -6.7 50
Baltimore Oakland 4.2 5.4 3.9 53
Chicago Detroit -3.6 -5.2 -3.7 42
Houston Tennessee 8.7 8.1 9.3 41
New England Buffalo 6.0 3.4 6.3 39
New York Jets Seattle -1.6 -0.7 -1.4 42
Washington Cleveland 10.3 10.0 10.6 49
Tampa Bay Denver -10.1 -5.8 -11.4 44
Arizona Los Angeles 10.6 7.2 11.5 47
San Diego New Orleans 5.8 4.3 6.1 60
San Francisco Dallas 2.1 3.1 2.4 37
Pittsburgh Kansas City 2.2 2.4 2.3 49
Minnesota New York Giants 10.9 10.2 12.1 45

 

 

 

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