The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 12, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 15-17, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:03 pm

The Best Schedule in a September Saturday in Years

This will be a week for college football fanatics to arrange their schedules to be glued to your viewing devices.  Forget mowing that lawn; the groceries can be shopped for Friday after work.  Tell your spouses that their honey-do list for this Saturday must be postponed, and let them know that the buckaroos at the PiRate Ratings have ordered you to do research this week.

This week’s schedule of games might even be better on the whole than rivalry weeks at the end of the season.  Let’s look at some of the great offerings, and by great, we don’t necessarily mean top 10 teams facing off against each other.  There are even great games among the bottom 30 teams.

Actually, the festivities commence Thursday night, when Houston visits Cincinnati.  This is somewhat of a trap game for the Cougars.  It is their first road game, and it comes against a solid but not spectacular conference foe.  Cincinnati began the season with a lackluster victory over a cream puff, and then won at Purdue last week.  The Bearcats are just talented enough to play their best game of the season and upset Houston.  It should be a great game with a good deal of scoring.

 

On Friday night, in what looks like a possible blowout, Rice hosts Baylor.  At one time, when both teams were Southwest Conference members, this was a huge rivalry game, not unlike Texas and Arkansas.  Baylor has won the last seven times these teams have faced off, with the last Owl win coming in the old SWC days in 1992.  Baylor put up 70 points on Rice last year in Waco, and even thought the Bears are several touchdowns stronger, this game might be interesting for awhile.

 

Now to Saturday, when the fun continues in bunches.

12 Noon Eastern Time

ABC: Florida State at Louisville

Don’t be surprised if the home team Cardinals pull the upset here.  Coach Bobby Petrino has built an offense at UL that could end the season averaging north of 50 points per game.  The defense is not Top 5 tough like other teams, but we are not sure that Florida State’s defense is ready to win it a championship either.  In a shootout, the better gunman usually wins, and Louisville has the better sharpshooter.  This one could be a 45-41 affair, and it is a 50-50 game in our opinion.  The PiRate Ratings are 100% in agreement with the winner.  See below.

Big Ten Network: Temple at Penn State

Coach James Franklin has felt that seat start to warm up in not so Happy Valley.  Losing to rival Pitt is not great, but losing for a second season to Temple could add some gas to that flame under the seat.  Temple imploded against Army, and then the Owls could not stop the option.  They righted the ship last week, and Penn State better play mistake-free ball and not give TU any gift points.

12:30 PM

ACC Network: Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech

Why is this game so important?  Both teams need this game to stay in the bowl chase this early in the season.  Georgia Tech pulled out a last-second win against Boston College in Dublin, Ireland, in week one.  The Yellow Jackets looked much better this past weekend, but they only played FCS Mercer.  This week, they face a coach that earned his job by stopping the read option, and Coach Derek Mason of Vanderbilt probably knows how to stop the spread option like his Stanford defenses did against Marcus Mariota’s Oregon offense.

The problem is that Vanderbilt’s offense is as weak as Boston College’s offense, and the Commodores may have trouble reaching 14 points in this game.  A 17-14 game would not be a shocker, although we believe that both teams will improve on the attack side after two so-so performances.  We believe the game could be won by less than a touchdown, with Tech having a 60% chance and Vanderbilt a 40% chance of winning.

3:30 PM

Big  Ten Network: Colorado at Michigan

Could it be that Coach Mike MacIntyre has turned the Buffalo program around?  After blowing out rival Colorado State at Invesco Field in week one, CU toyed with Idaho State in week two.  Sure, these are not quality opponents, but in recent years, CU might have gone 1-1 against these teams.

Playing at the Big House against a tough group of Wolverines is probably too much for the Buffs to take on, but it could be a very interesting game if CU does not turn the ball over.

 

WatchESPN App: South Florida at Syracuse

This will be an interesting contest with a team in Syracuse that might throw 50-60 passes and run off 100 scrimmage plays in a game before the season ends, and a South Florida team that plays the Stanford-Michigan smashmouth offense.  USF might be the one team that can derail Houston if the two meet in the AAC Championship Game, and the Bulls just might be a dark horse contender for the New Year’s 6 Bowl.  However, Coach Dino Babers has the ‘Cuse playing well above their level of 2015, and The Orangemen could just as easily end USF’s hopes for playing on January 2.

 

ABC: Oregon at Nebraska

Call this game a playoff eliminator.  The loser can win out and still miss the playoffs, while the winner stays alive with the hope that a 13-0 season will get them to Atlanta or Glendale, AZ.  Coach Mike Riley certainly knows Oregon well, having coached at Oregon State so long, but then Mark Helfrich knows a lot about what Riley’s teams do.  So, it should come down to which team executes its game plan better.  The Huskers can be an extra touchdown better in Lincoln than on a neutral field, and Oregon has not been a giant killer on the road in recent years.

 

CBS Sports Network: San Diego State at Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois is off to its worst start in years at 0-2, while SDSU is 2-0.  Why would we call this a game worth watching?  First, NIU’s first two games were road games, and the Huskies have a 31-2 home record in the last six years.  They won’t bend or break at Huskie Stadium.

Rocky Long may have the best team he’s ever coached in his career this season.  San Diego State has a decent chance of running the table in the regular season for the first time since 1969, when Dennis Shaw ran the Air Coryell offense to perfection.  The Aztecs have a couple of roadblock road games with trips to Dekalb this week and then to South Alabama in two weeks.  If they can get through these games unscathed, then you can add another prime contender with Houston, South Florida, Boise State, and maybe another MAC team for the NY6 Bowl bid.

 

CBS: Alabama at Ole Miss

Ole Miss is the one team that doesn’t back down to the Crimson Tide.  The Rebels have beaten ‘Bama in back-to-back years.  When has a team beaten Alabama three years in a row, when the Tide was not going through a rough patch where they did not stay in the Top 10?  It’s never been done when Alabama finished in the Top 10 all three seasons.  The closest was the 1967-68-69 seasons when Tennessee beat the Tide, but in 1969, Alabama had declined and would finish 6-5.

Ole Miss blew an excellent opportunity to make this a game between two Top 10 teams, when turnovers cost them a big lead against Florida State.  We believe the Rebels can play a mistake-free game this week and still lose by up to three touchdowns.  If a rebuilding reloading Tide team can go into Oxford and win big, we could be looking at another dynasty in Tuscaloosa like the Crimson fans saw in the early 1960’s and most of the 1970’s.

7:00 PM

ESPN: Texas A&M at Auburn

This one can be called the hot seat avoidance game.  The losing coach is going to begin to be in a bit of trouble.  How do we rate Auburn’s close loss to Clemson at Jordan-Hare Stadium, after Troy went to CU and lost by the same amount of points?  Auburn handled Arkansas State with ease, but ASU lost at home to Toledo in week one.  This becomes a put up or shut up game for War Eagle Nation.

Texas A&M has a quality win over UCLA, plus a no extra knowledge learned win over a very weak Prairie View team.  This is the Aggies’ first road game, and it comes in a tough place to win, but they won by a field goal the last time they came here.  We expect a hard-fought, close game.

 

ESPN2: Mississippi State at LSU

The loser will be 0-1 in the SEC and 1-2 overall, and they can look forward to hoping for an Outback Bowl bid at the max.  If the winner has maroon jerseys, then there will be less smiles in the LSU coaching office come Sunday Morning.  Les Miles is on the hottest of hot seats at the present time, and a home loss to a team that lost to South Alabama might be enough to make his dismissal inevitable.

Then, there is the health of star back Leonard Fournette, who missed the Jacksonville State game Saturday night.  Fournette is expected back in practice tomorrow, but he still suffers from the effects of the ankle injury.  And, there is the little matter of who will start at quarterback for the Tigers.  Former Purdue starter Danny Etling started 6 of 8 for 100 yards after replacing ineffective Brandon Harris in the second quarter.  However, he was 0 of 6 in the second half.

 

ESPN3: Navy at Tulane

How in the world could we select this game as one that could be a must watch affair?  Okay, first we did say this was a week for football fanatics, so give us a tad bit of slack here.  This actually should be a very interesting and fun game to watch, so consider giving it a few minutes time early in the evening.

Tulane’s first-year coach Willie Fritz came from Georgia Southern.  This Green Wave squad was not expected to do much in year one, as Fritz began the process of turning a former Pro-style offense into his unique form of multiple option offense, similar but different from the Navy/Georgia Tech style of spread option or inverted wishbone.  In week one, TU went to Wake Forest and held their own in a defensive struggle.  The Green Wave almost pulled off the upset, and after Wake knocked off Duke last week, this loss in Winston-Salem looks better than it did on opening night.  TU then handled Southern with ease, this time doing it with a breakout true freshman quarterback in Johnathan Brantley, who ran the option like a seasoned veteran.

Besides having two option teams going at each other, this is an American Athletic Conference game and an intra-division one to boot.  It should be a fun retro match that resembles the Oklahoma-Texas games of the early 1970s.

 

7:30 PM

NBC: Michigan State at Notre Dame

Neither team has looked as good as expected to this point, although Michigan State has only played one game, and the Spartans have had an extra week to prepare.  You know the old adage, that a team improves the most between its first and second game, and having two weeks to improve should make Sparty a live road ‘dog.

If you are around 60 years of age or older, you know how great this rivalry has been.  You saw the 1966 game that ended in a 10-10 tie, where both teams finished the season at 9-0-1.  Expect the score to pass 20 total points sometime in the second quarter.

Fox Sports: Ohio State at Oklahoma

Now this is how top teams should schedule!  If there were automatic NCAA Playoff bids to each of the Power 5 Conference Champions with three at-large bids to be awarded, then you would see more games like this instead of Big U vs. Northwest Southeastern Tech.

An Oklahoma loss means the Sooners can only expect a Sugar Bowl bid if they win the Big 12 Conference.  An Ohio State win in Norman could be enough to move the Buckeyes up to Number One in the nation, even if Alabama wins at Ole Miss.  Ohio State has started its first two games slowly, and a repeat at Memorial Stadium could be impossible to rally to victory if they get down by double-digits.

The key in this one is how much Oklahoma’s pass defense has improved since week one.  If J. T. Barrett can exploit the OU secondary for a deep pass for a touchdown, the Buckeyes’ running game might be able to get untracked and put up 250 yards on the Sooners.

We expect a game with more than 70 points scored, and wouldn’t this be an excellent night for a handful of overtimes?

8:00 PM

ABC: USC at Stanford

USC faces two separate extra troubles this week.  First, the home Cardinal had an extra week to prepare after besting a decent Kansas State team in week one.  Second, Stanford knows what Alabama did to the Trojans on a neutral field.  They know that to be given serious credibility, they cannot beat USC by a field goal or touchdown and get it.  They have to win this one by double digits to get any respect.

USC is not chopped liver.  The Trojans have played in the Rose Bowl in a season in which the national champ embarrassed them.  Look back at 1966, when USC lost to Notre Dame 51-0, yet made it to the Rose Bowl.

If truth be told, the Trojans are not 46 points weaker than Alabama.  If they played again, they might only lose by 24-28 points.  Stanford better be on guard, because the Trojans seek the same respect that Stanford believes they must earn.  Expect a good game on the Farm Saturday night.

10:30 PM

ESPN: Texas at California

This one is all about the Longhorns venturing out of the Lone Star State.  Cal is rebuilding and will be lucky to win five games this year, while Texas is trying to return to greatness.  The Longhorns have holes in their defense, and Cal has an offense capable of scoring a lot of points.  The key is how well the Texas offense will fare on foreign soil, even against a very porous defense.  If you wake up Sunday morning and see that Coach Charlie Strong’s team hung half a hundred on the Bears, then UT could easily be 4-0 when the Red River Shootout takes place in Dallas.  A win there, and it would be quite possible to see a path to 12-0 for the ‘Horns.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.9 124.3 131.9 129.4
2 Tennessee 124.8 120.1 124.8 123.2
3 LSU 124.6 118.7 123.7 122.3
4 Oklahoma 122.7 119.5 122.5 121.6
5 Louisville 123.4 117.2 123.6 121.4
6 Michigan 121.6 119.7 122.2 121.2
7 Ohio St. 120.1 119.9 121.7 120.6
8 Florida St. 122.9 115.6 121.8 120.1
9 Clemson 121.9 113.6 120.4 118.6
10 Washington 121.1 113.3 121.2 118.5
11 Stanford 120.5 113.1 119.4 117.7
12 Oklahoma St. 114.9 116.4 114.7 115.3
13 Auburn 115.7 113.9 115.8 115.1
14 North Carolina 117.1 110.4 116.8 114.8
15 Iowa 115.9 112.8 115.6 114.8
16 Notre Dame 116.4 112.4 115.3 114.7
17 Texas 113.7 116.7 113.7 114.7
18 Miami 117.5 109.5 116.8 114.6
19 Pittsburgh 116.3 111.3 115.4 114.3
20 Houston 113.9 111.8 115.9 113.9
21 Florida 112.9 116.6 111.1 113.5
22 Wisconsin 113.9 111.5 114.7 113.4
23 Mississippi St. 114.1 111.6 113.3 113.0
24 USC 115.2 111.0 112.5 112.9
25 TCU 111.7 113.6 111.5 112.3
26 Oregon 112.8 111.7 111.8 112.1
27 Texas A&M 112.4 111.7 112.2 112.1
28 Georgia 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.3
29 Michigan St. 111.9 111.2 109.9 111.0
30 Virginia Tech 111.0 110.6 111.3 111.0
31 Arkansas 113.1 108.2 110.4 110.6
32 UCLA 110.9 110.5 110.4 110.6
33 Baylor 110.3 110.0 111.4 110.6
34 Ole Miss 113.1 106.7 111.7 110.5
35 Nebraska 111.5 107.9 111.8 110.4
36 South Florida 110.1 107.6 111.5 109.7
37 Arizona St. 109.3 109.6 108.3 109.1
38 Boise St. 107.7 109.1 110.0 108.9
39 Colorado 110.3 105.6 110.8 108.9
40 BYU 110.8 103.5 110.3 108.2
41 Utah 111.0 104.9 108.6 108.2
42 Penn St. 107.6 109.5 106.0 107.7
43 Georgia Tech 108.2 104.5 107.6 106.8
44 West Virginia 107.0 106.4 106.6 106.7
45 North Carolina St. 106.7 104.2 106.0 105.6
46 Washington St. 106.5 103.4 106.3 105.4
47 San Diego St. 105.2 101.9 107.6 104.9
48 Kansas St. 103.9 107.2 103.5 104.9
49 Texas Tech 105.8 103.4 103.6 104.3
50 Western Michigan 104.2 102.4 106.1 104.2
51 Minnesota 104.9 102.9 104.6 104.1
52 Vanderbilt 105.8 101.5 104.3 103.9
53 Northwestern 106.2 100.7 104.6 103.8
54 Boston College 104.3 103.3 103.8 103.8
55 Cincinnati 103.1 103.9 104.0 103.7
56 Central Michigan 102.2 105.0 103.4 103.5
57 Missouri 103.8 103.0 103.6 103.5
58 Arizona 104.6 102.2 103.6 103.5
59 Indiana 101.6 106.1 101.2 103.0
60 Maryland 102.4 106.0 100.2 102.9
61 Toledo 103.0 101.4 103.9 102.8
62 Air Force 100.6 101.0 101.1 100.9
63 Syracuse 102.9 99.0 100.5 100.8
64 Wake Forest 101.7 99.4 100.8 100.7
65 South Carolina 101.1 100.0 100.6 100.6
66 Tulsa 99.5 101.8 100.2 100.5
67 Appalachian St. 99.8 99.2 102.5 100.5
68 Western Kentucky 101.4 96.6 102.8 100.3
69 Memphis 102.3 97.4 100.4 100.1
70 Temple 99.5 99.1 100.2 99.6
71 Virginia 100.7 97.6 100.0 99.4
72 California 103.8 93.9 100.6 99.4
73 Duke 99.2 100.3 97.5 99.0
74 Navy 99.0 98.7 98.5 98.8
75 Illinois 99.8 96.3 98.7 98.3
76 Rutgers 98.2 95.2 96.3 96.6
77 Connecticut 97.2 95.1 97.4 96.6
78 Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
79 Oregon St. 98.3 93.5 95.7 95.8
80 East Carolina 94.9 97.1 95.3 95.8
81 Kentucky 95.4 97.7 93.7 95.6
82 Southern Mississippi 95.2 94.5 96.2 95.3
83 Marshall 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
84 Northern Illinois 94.0 95.6 94.7 94.8
85 Georgia Southern 93.8 93.5 96.3 94.6
86 Iowa St. 95.2 94.6 93.8 94.5
87 Utah St. 93.3 96.3 92.6 94.1
88 New Mexico 92.0 95.5 93.1 93.6
89 Middle Tennessee 92.2 94.1 92.5 92.9
90 Army 88.7 96.9 92.0 92.5
91 Nevada 91.1 94.1 92.1 92.5
92 Ohio 89.2 97.8 90.2 92.4
93 SMU 92.5 91.7 91.8 92.0
94 UNLV 90.5 94.8 90.6 92.0
95 Bowling Green 92.0 90.2 91.6 91.3
96 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.4 91.4 90.8
97 Louisiana Tech 89.5 91.9 90.7 90.7
98 San Jose St. 89.6 90.0 90.1 89.9
99 Troy 86.9 92.5 88.8 89.4
100 Kansas 86.4 94.7 83.9 88.4
101 Central Florida 87.2 89.6 87.2 88.0
102 Old Dominion 85.6 88.8 86.0 86.8
103 Colorado St. 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
104 Florida Atlantic 85.0 88.1 86.9 86.7
105 Tulane 85.3 88.6 85.5 86.5
106 Ball St. 85.5 87.5 86.4 86.5
107 Akron 83.2 89.6 84.6 85.8
108 Rice 81.9 90.1 81.9 84.6
109 Kent St. 83.9 85.6 84.1 84.6
110 Wyoming 83.7 83.4 83.9 83.7
111 Miami (O) 83.0 84.2 83.9 83.7
112 South Alabama 80.5 87.9 81.9 83.4
113 Florida International 80.6 87.4 81.4 83.1
114 Fresno St. 81.6 85.9 81.3 82.9
115 Massachusetts 79.1 87.2 80.5 82.3
116 Buffalo 78.3 87.6 79.7 81.9
117 UTSA 78.3 86.5 80.6 81.8
118 Georgia St. 78.7 84.1 80.2 81.0
119 Eastern Michigan 78.2 83.4 79.1 80.2
120 Idaho 77.6 83.7 79.0 80.1
121 UL-Lafayette 75.3 84.1 77.2 78.9
122 UTEP 76.3 80.7 77.8 78.3
123 New Mexico St. 74.9 77.8 76.1 76.3
124 Hawaii 76.8 75.6 75.7 76.0
125 North Texas 74.8 77.2 74.8 75.6
126 Charlotte 72.2 79.4 73.3 75.0
127 Texas St. 72.1 73.2 73.3 72.9
128 UL-Monroe 67.6 73.0 68.0 69.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 110.1 107.6 111.5 109.7
Cincinnati 103.1 103.9 104.0 103.7
Temple 99.5 99.1 100.2 99.6
Connecticut 97.2 95.1 97.4 96.6
East Carolina 94.9 97.1 95.3 95.8
Central Florida 87.2 89.6 87.2 88.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 113.9 111.8 115.9 113.9
Tulsa 99.5 101.8 100.2 100.5
Memphis 102.3 97.4 100.4 100.1
Navy 99.0 98.7 98.5 98.8
SMU 92.5 91.7 91.8 92.0
Tulane 85.3 88.6 85.5 86.5
         
AAC Averages 98.7 98.6 99.0 98.8
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 123.4 117.2 123.6 121.4
Florida St. 122.9 115.6 121.8 120.1
Clemson 121.9 113.6 120.4 118.6
North Carolina St. 106.7 104.2 106.0 105.6
Boston College 104.3 103.3 103.8 103.8
Syracuse 102.9 99.0 100.5 100.8
Wake Forest 101.7 99.4 100.8 100.7
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 117.1 110.4 116.8 114.8
Miami 117.5 109.5 116.8 114.6
Pittsburgh 116.3 111.3 115.4 114.3
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.6 111.3 111.0
Georgia Tech 108.2 104.5 107.6 106.8
Virginia 100.7 97.6 100.0 99.4
Duke 99.2 100.3 97.5 99.0
         
ACC Averages 111.0 106.9 110.2 109.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 122.7 119.5 122.5 121.6
Oklahoma St. 114.9 116.4 114.7 115.3
Texas 113.7 116.7 113.7 114.7
TCU 111.7 113.6 111.5 112.3
Baylor 110.3 110.0 111.4 110.6
West Virginia 107.0 106.4 106.6 106.7
Kansas St. 103.9 107.2 103.5 104.9
Texas Tech 105.8 103.4 103.6 104.3
Iowa St. 95.2 94.6 93.8 94.5
Kansas 86.4 94.7 83.9 88.4
         
Big 12 Averages 107.2 108.3 106.5 107.3
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 121.6 119.7 122.2 121.2
Ohio St. 120.1 119.9 121.7 120.6
Michigan St. 111.9 111.2 109.9 111.0
Penn St. 107.6 109.5 106.0 107.7
Indiana 101.6 106.1 101.2 103.0
Maryland 102.4 106.0 100.2 102.9
Rutgers 98.2 95.2 96.3 96.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 115.9 112.8 115.6 114.8
Wisconsin 113.9 111.5 114.7 113.4
Nebraska 111.5 107.9 111.8 110.4
Minnesota 104.9 102.9 104.6 104.1
Northwestern 106.2 100.7 104.6 103.8
Illinois 99.8 96.3 98.7 98.3
Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
         
Big Ten Averages 108.1 106.8 107.4 107.4
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 101.4 96.6 102.8 100.3
Marshall 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
Middle Tennessee 92.2 94.1 92.5 92.9
Old Dominion 85.6 88.8 86.0 86.8
Florida Atlantic 85.0 88.1 86.9 86.7
Florida International 80.6 87.4 81.4 83.1
Charlotte 72.2 79.4 73.3 75.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 95.2 94.5 96.2 95.3
Louisiana Tech 89.5 91.9 90.7 90.7
Rice 81.9 90.1 81.9 84.6
UTSA 78.3 86.5 80.6 81.8
UTEP 76.3 80.7 77.8 78.3
North Texas 74.8 77.2 74.8 75.6
         
CUSA Averages 85.1 88.7 86.2 86.7
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 116.4 112.4 115.3 114.7
BYU 110.8 103.5 110.3 108.2
Army 88.7 96.9 92.0 92.5
Massachusetts 79.1 87.2 80.5 82.3
         
Independents Averages 98.8 100.0 99.5 99.4
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 89.2 97.8 90.2 92.4
Bowling Green 92.0 90.2 91.6 91.3
Akron 83.2 89.6 84.6 85.8
Kent St. 83.9 85.6 84.1 84.6
Miami (O) 83.0 84.2 83.9 83.7
Buffalo 78.3 87.6 79.7 81.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 104.2 102.4 106.1 104.2
Central Michigan 102.2 105.0 103.4 103.5
Toledo 103.0 101.4 103.9 102.8
Northern Illinois 94.0 95.6 94.7 94.8
Ball St. 85.5 87.5 86.4 86.5
Eastern Michigan 78.2 83.4 79.1 80.2
         
MAC Averages 89.7 92.5 90.6 91.0
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 107.7 109.1 110.0 108.9
Air Force 100.6 101.0 101.1 100.9
Utah St. 93.3 96.3 92.6 94.1
New Mexico 92.0 95.5 93.1 93.6
Colorado St. 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
Wyoming 83.7 83.4 83.9 83.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.2 101.9 107.6 104.9
Nevada 91.1 94.1 92.1 92.5
UNLV 90.5 94.8 90.6 92.0
San Jose St. 89.6 90.0 90.1 89.9
Fresno St. 81.6 85.9 81.3 82.9
Hawaii 76.8 75.6 75.7 76.0
         
MWC Averages 91.5 93.0 92.0 92.2
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 121.1 113.3 121.2 118.5
Stanford 120.5 113.1 119.4 117.7
Oregon 112.8 111.7 111.8 112.1
Washington St. 106.5 103.4 106.3 105.4
California 103.8 93.9 100.6 99.4
Oregon St. 98.3 93.5 95.7 95.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 115.2 111.0 112.5 112.9
UCLA 110.9 110.5 110.4 110.6
Arizona St. 109.3 109.6 108.3 109.1
Colorado 110.3 105.6 110.8 108.9
Utah 111.0 104.9 108.6 108.2
Arizona 104.6 102.2 103.6 103.5
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.1 109.1 108.5
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 124.8 120.1 124.8 123.2
Florida 112.9 116.6 111.1 113.5
Georgia 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.3
Vanderbilt 105.8 101.5 104.3 103.9
Missouri 103.8 103.0 103.6 103.5
South Carolina 101.1 100.0 100.6 100.6
Kentucky 95.4 97.7 93.7 95.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.9 124.3 131.9 129.4
LSU 124.6 118.7 123.7 122.3
Auburn 115.7 113.9 115.8 115.1
Mississippi St. 114.1 111.6 113.3 113.0
Texas A&M 112.4 111.7 112.2 112.1
Arkansas 113.1 108.2 110.4 110.6
Ole Miss 113.1 106.7 111.7 110.5
         
SEC Averages 112.9 110.4 112.0 111.8
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.8 99.2 102.5 100.5
Georgia Southern 93.8 93.5 96.3 94.6
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.4 91.4 90.8
Troy 86.9 92.5 88.8 89.4
South Alabama 80.5 87.9 81.9 83.4
Georgia St. 78.7 84.1 80.2 81.0
Idaho 77.6 83.7 79.0 80.1
UL-Lafayette 75.3 84.1 77.2 78.9
New Mexico St. 74.9 77.8 76.1 76.3
Texas St. 72.1 73.2 73.3 72.9
UL-Monroe 67.6 73.0 68.0 69.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.5 85.5 83.2 83.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.9 110.4 112.0 111.8
2 ACC 111.0 106.9 110.2 109.4
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.1 109.1 108.5
4 Big Ten 108.1 106.8 107.4 107.4
5 Big 12 107.2 108.3 106.5 107.3
6 Independents 98.8 100.0 99.5 99.4
7 AAC 98.7 98.6 99.0 98.8
8 MWC 91.5 93.0 92.0 92.2
9 MAC 89.7 92.5 90.6 91.0
10 CUSA 85.1 88.7 86.2 86.7
11 Sun Belt 81.5 85.5 83.2 83.4

 

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Florida St.
4 Clemson
5 Tennessee
6 Michigan
7 Wisconsin
8 Washington
9 Houston
10 Stanford
11 Arkansas
12 Louisville
13 Texas A&M
14 Oklahoma
15 Iowa
16 Texas
17 Baylor
18 LSU
19 Utah
20 Georgia
21 Florida
22 Michigan St.
23 Ole Miss
24 Oregon
25 Nebraska
26 Notre Dame
27 Pittsburgh
28 Miami (Fla.)
29 Arizona St.
30 North Carolina
31 USC
32 Boise St.
33 West Virginia
34 TCU
35 Auburn
36 San Diego St.
37 UCLA
38 Toledo
39 Western Michigan
40 Navy
41 BYU
42 South Florida
43 Colorado
44 Georgia Tech
45 Western Kentucky
46 Oklahoma St.
47 Appalachian St.
48 Georgia Southern
49 Minnesota
50 Cincinnati
51 Mississippi St.
52 Virginia Tech
53 California
54 Penn St.
55 Texas Tech
56 Central Michigan
57 Indiana
58 East Carolina
59 Southern Miss.
60 Memphis
61 Wake Forest
62 Marshall
63 Air Force
64 North Carolina St.
65 Maryland
66 Army
67 Missouri
68 Kansas St.
69 South Carolina
70 Tulsa
71 Washington St.
72 Arizona
73 Louisiana Tech
74 Temple
75 Duke
76 Northwestern
77 Vanderbilt
78 Boston College
79 Illinois
80 South Alabama
81 Bowling Green
82 Syracuse
83 Utah St.
84 Akron
85 Ohio
86 Rutgers
87 Colorado St.
88 Arkansas St.
89 Troy
90 Connecticut
91 MTSU
92 Kentucky
93 Texas St.
94 Purdue
95 SMU
96 Nevada
97 San Jose St.
98 UTEP
99 Oregon St.
100 Wyoming
101 Idaho
102 Virginia
103 Ball St.
104 Iowa St.
105 Central Florida
106 Northern Illinois
107 Fresno St.
108 New Mexico
109 Florida Atlantic
110 UNLV
111 UL-Lafayette
112 Tulane
113 New Mexico St.
114 Kansas
115 Old Dominion
116 Rice
117 Georgia St.
118 Massachusetts
119 UTSA
120 Charlotte
121 Hawaii
122 UL-Monroe
123 Florida Int’l.
124 North Texas
125 Buffalo
126 Eastern Michigan
127 Miami (O)
128 Kent St.

 

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 15      
Cincinnati Houston -7.8 -4.9 -8.9
         
Friday, September 16      
Rice Baylor -26.4 -17.9 -27.5
Utah St. Arkansas St. 7.2 8.4 4.7
UTSA Arizona St. -28.5 -20.6 -25.2
         
Saturday, September 17      
Appalachian St. Miami (Fla.) -14.7 -7.3 -11.3
Louisville Florida St. 3.5 4.6 4.8
Penn St. Temple 10.1 12.4 7.8
Rutgers New Mexico 9.2 2.7 5.2
Tennessee Ohio 38.6 25.3 37.6
Memphis Kansas 18.9 5.7 19.5
TCU Iowa St. 19.5 22.0 20.7
Wisconsin Georgia St. 38.2 30.4 37.5
Bowling Green Middle Tennessee 2.3 -1.4 1.6
Marshall Akron 13.0 11.0 13.4
Georgia Tech Vanderbilt 5.4 6.0 6.3
Connecticut Virginia -0.5 0.5 0.4
Washington St. Idaho 31.4 22.2 29.8
Kansas St. Florida Atlantic 21.9 22.1 19.6
Central Michigan UNLV 14.7 13.2 15.8
Toledo Fresno St. 24.4 18.5 25.6
Massachusetts Florida Int’l. 1.0 2.3 1.6
Miami (O) Western Kentucky -16.4 -10.4 -16.9
Michigan Colorado 14.3 17.1 14.4
Syracuse South Florida -4.2 -5.6 -8.0
Virginia Tech Boston College 9.7 10.3 10.5
Nebraska Oregon 1.7 -0.8 3.0
Northern Illinois San Diego St. -8.2 -3.0 -9.9
Oklahoma St. Pittsburgh 1.6 8.1 2.3
Ole Miss Alabama -15.8 -14.6 -17.2
Kentucky New Mexico St. 23.5 22.9 20.6
South Carolina East Carolina 8.7 5.4 7.8
Illinois Western Michigan -1.4 -3.1 -4.4
Charlotte Eastern Michigan -4.0 -2.0 -3.8
North Carolina St. Old Dominion 23.6 17.9 22.5
Georgia Southern UL-Monroe 28.7 23.0 30.8
Auburn Texas A&M 6.3 5.2 6.6
LSU Mississippi St. 13.5 10.1 13.4
Southern Miss. Troy 10.8 4.5 9.9
Texas Tech Louisiana Tech 19.3 14.5 15.9
UTEP Army -9.4 -13.2 -11.2
Central Florida Maryland -12.2 -13.4 -10.0
Tulane Navy -11.2 -7.6 -10.5
UL-Lafayette South Alabama -3.2 -1.8 -2.7
Florida North Texas 41.1 42.4 39.3
Notre Dame Michigan St. 7.5 4.2 8.4
Arkansas Texas St. 44.0 38.0 40.1
Missouri Georgia -4.5 -5.4 -4.6
Oklahoma Ohio St. 5.6 2.6 3.8
Northwestern Duke 9.5 2.9 9.6
Stanford USC 8.3 5.1 9.9
Nevada Buffalo 16.3 10.0 15.9
BYU UCLA 2.9 -4.0 2.9
California Texas -6.9 -19.8 -10.1
San Jose St. Utah -18.9 -12.4 -16.0
Arizona Hawaii 31.3 30.1 31.4

 

FBS versus FCS Teams–PiRate Estimated Spread

FBS vs. FCS Week 3  
Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson South Carolina St. 47
Iowa North Dakota St. 19
Tulsa N. C. A&T 25
Ball St. Eastern Kentucky 15
Kent St. Monmouth 11
North Carolina James Madison 26
Colorado St. Northern Colorado 21
Wyoming UC-Davis 11
Oregon St. Idaho St. 25
Wake Forest Delaware 23
SMU Liberty 11
Washington Portland St. 42

 

 

 

 

 

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