The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 15, 2016

2016 Conference USA Football Ratings Preview

Conference USA has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years because the league has lost several teams with historic football success. At one time, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis were members of the league.

In current times, CUSA has been able to barely avoid the basement as the weakest conference, maintaining a small edge over the Sun Belt.

The league race should be competitive this year, as three teams appear to be talented enough to contend for the East Division title. The West looks less competitive, but after prohibitive favorite Southern Mississippi, there are two or three teams capable of making a surprise run to the division title.

In the last two years, Marshall and Western Kentucky have been contenders for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowls, but no CUSA team figures to be in contention this year.

Here is a look at the Pre-season media poll. No vote counts were issued or for that matter, the media did not vote on overall conference champion.

# Team
1 Middle Tennessee
2 Western Kentucky
3 Marshall
4 Florida Atlantic
5 Florida Int’l.
6 Old Dominion
7 Charlotte
# Team
1 Southern Miss.
2 Louisiana Tech
3 Rice
6 North Texas

This is how the PiRate Ratings see the divisional races

Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.1 93.1 99.8 97.3
Marshall 92.3 96.7 94.1 94.4
Middle Tennessee 92.0 94.6 93.1 93.3
Old Dominion 85.7 89.1 86.3 87.0
Florida Atlantic 84.8 88.5 86.7 86.7
Florida Int’l. 82.3 89.5 84.2 85.3
Charlotte 72.9 81.0 74.5 76.2
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Miss. 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
CUSA Averages 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.3


The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Conference USA Projected Standings
East Division  Conference  Overall  Bowl
Marshall 7-1 10-3 * Hawaii
Western Kentucky 7-1 9-3 New Orleans
Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-5 Heart of Dallas
Florida Int’l. 4-4 6-6 Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion 4-4 6-6 Bowl Eligible
Florida Atlantic 3-5 5-7  
Charlotte 0-8 1-11  
West Division   Conference   Overall   Bowl
Southern Miss. 8-0 10-3 Boca Raton
Rice 5-3 6-6 New Mexico
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 Arizona
UTSA 3-5 4-8  
UTEP 1-7 3-9  
North Texas 0-8 1-11  
* Marshall to win CUSA Championship Game

Next Preview: Wednesday, August 17–Mid-American Conference Preview







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