The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 4, 2016

NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship By The Numbers

PiRate Ratings For National Championship Game

Team Team Red White Blue
North Carolina Villanova 1 1 4

Red Rating–Uses an algorithm based on the Four Factors statistics adjusted to strength of schedule

White Rating–The Red Rating with comparative scores added to the algorithm

Blue Rating–An independent rating using an algorithm that does not include any of the Four Factors.

 

Four Factor Statistics

Four Factors    
North Carolina Offense vs. Villanova Defense    
Stat UNC-O Vill-D
EFG% 52.6 46.5
Reb Rate 40.6 29.0
TO Rate 15.3 20.7
FT * 22.1 16.6

 

Villanova Offense vs. North Carolina Defense    
Stat Vill-O UNC-D
EFG% 55.8 47.7
Reb Rate 28.6 30.2
TO Rate 16.3 18.4
FT * 22.2 18.1

 

Explanation of 4-Factors

EFG% = Effective Field Goal %.   [FG+(3pt * 1.5)]/FGA

Reb Rate = Percentage of offensive rebounds off missed shots.  (100* off. reb)/(off. reb + opp def. reb)

TO Rate=Turnovers committed (or forced for defense) per 100 Possessions

FT * = Free Throws Made per 100 Possessions

 

PiRate Criteria

PiRate Criteria UNC Vill.
Scoring Margin 13.2 14.7
FG% Diff 7.1 7.9
Reb Marg. 8.5 1.9
TO Marg. 2.1 2.9
R + T 22.8 10.5
Road W-L 18-5 19-4
SOS 57.74 58.54
Poss/G 70.2 67.5
Win Strk 1 12 9
Win Strk 2 10 7

Scoring Margin = Offense points per game minus opponents points per game

FG% Diff =Difference in offensive FG% and opponents FG%

Reb. Margin = Team rebounds per game minus opponents rebounds per game

TO Margin = Opponents turnovers per game minus team’s turnovers per game

R + T = PiRate Rating’s own invention to estimate additional scoring chances per game over the average team.  The formula is: (Rebound Margin * 2) + (Steals per Game * 0.5) + (6 – Opponents’ Steals per Game) + (Turnover Margin)

An R+T over 20.0 is dominating.  15.0-19.9 is excellent.  10.0-14.9 is very good.  7.0-9.9 is good. 5.0-6.9 is fair.  0-4.9 is not good. Any negative R+T is bad.  These ratings apply to the NCAA Tournament.  Negative R+T rated teams almost always lose in the first game of the Tournament.

Road W-L is the teams record in Away and Neutral Games

SOS is strength of schedule as determined by CBS Sports Ratings and multiplied by 100

Poss/G is number of possessions per game

Win Strk 1 & 2 are the teams’ two best winning streaks

 

Player Comparisons By Position

Point Guard PPG RPG APG SPG FG% 3pt% FT% Ast/TO
UNC–Berry II 12.6 3.4 3.8 1.5 44.2 36.8 86.4 2.49
VU–Arcidiacono 12.4 2.9 4.3 1.4 43.9 38.9 83.3 2.83
                 
Shooting Guard PPG RPG APG SPG FG% 3pt% FT% Ast/TO
UNC–Paige 12.3 2.5 3.7 1.2 39.8 34.8 77.5 2.98
VU–Brunson 9.7 1.8 2.6 0.7 45.5 38.1 77.9 1.39
                 
Small Forward PPG RPG APG SPG FG% 3pt% FT% TO/MP
UNC–Jackson 12.3 3.9 2.8 0.6 46.8 27.6 68.1 3.63%
VU–Hart 15.5 6.7 1.9 1.2 51.5 35.8 75.2 5.26%
                 
Power Forward PPG RPG APG BPG FG% 3pt% FT% TO/MP
UNC–Meeks 9.4 5.9 1.1 1.1 56.3 0.0 67.8 6.69%
VU–Jenkins 13.6 3.9 2.2 0.4 45.6 38.4 85.3 4.40%
                 
Center PPG RPG APG BPG FG% 3pt% FT% TO/MP
UNC–Johnson 17.0 10.5 1.5 1.5 61.4 0.0 78.5 6.42%
VU–Ochefu 10.1 7.6 1.7 1.5 62.3 0.0 68.8 5.76%
                 
Bench Big PPG RPG APG BPG FG% 3pt% FT% TO/MP
UNC–Hicks 9.1 4.6 0.7 0.6 61.6 0.0 75.6 6.54%
VU–Reynolds 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.5 64.9 0.0 72.3 4.15%
                 
Bench Swing PPG RPG APG SPG FG% 3pt% FT% TO/MP
UNC–Pinson 4.6 3.3 2.9 0.6 40.4 29.0 67.2 6.67%
VU–Bridges 6.5 3.2 0.9 1.1 51.8 29.9 78.7 3.01%
                 
Bench Guard PPG RPG APG SPG FG% 3pt% FT% Ast/TO
UNC–Britt 5.5 1.5 1.8 0.7 38.7 32.9 80.0 2.06
VU–Booth 6.7 2.1 2.2 0.7 35.3 30.6 86.6 1.52
Advertisements

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: