The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 6, 2016

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:19 am

We have done something we’ve never done before for Super Bowl 50.  Normally, when we run computer simulations, we run them 100 times.  It take about .1 second to run it 100 times.  Last night, after inputting the statistical data and weather forecast, we ran the simulation 10,000 times.  It took much longer, almost .3 second.  We then ran it again subbing Brock Osweiler for Peyton Manning, simulating a Manning injury or inability to perform as acceptable levels.  To be fair, we then ran it again with Cam Newton leaving the game in the second quarter due to injury, just to see how the game was affected.

What we found out is rather obvious:  Newton is much more valuable to the Panthers than Manning is to the Broncos.  With Manning leaving the game at halftime and Osweiler entering in the second half, Denver’s percentage of winning the game fell by just 2.7%.  With Newton leaving the game and unable to play in the second half, Carolina scored an average of just 4.2 points in 10,000 simulations.  Derek Anderson, in relief, could not lead the Panthers to Paydirt against the Bronco defense.

 

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

SUPER BOWL 50

Date: Sunday, February 7, 2016

Time: 3:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (6:30 PM Eastern)

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara is about 40 miles Southeast of Downtown San Francisco in the greater San Jose area.

TV Network: CBS

Announce Team: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson, and Evan Washburn

Also Available: cbssports.com, live streaming for Verizon Wireless customers with Super Bowl app, Xbox One, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Chromecast, and Roku).

Canada: CTV

United Kingdom: BBC2  and on radio on BBC Radio 5 Live

Australia: Seven Network and Foxtel

Radio: Westwood One 

Announce Team: Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, James Lofton, and Mark Malone.

 

Participants

AFC Champion–Denver Broncos

NFC Champion–Carolina Panthers

 

Las Vegas

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 5 1/2

Totals: Over or Under 44 1/2

Money Line: Carolina -230, Denver +190

 

Weather Forecast: 69 degrees at kickoff with nominal winds and humidity–near perfect weather!

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 7.0

Mean: Carolina by 7.7

Bias: Carolina by 9.0

Average: Carolina by 7.9

Average Score: Carolina 26 Denver 18

 

10,000 Computer Simulations 

Carolina wins 63.47%

Denver wins 36.53%

Average Score: Carolina 24.3  Denver 17.1

Standard Deviation: 9.42

Outlier A: Carolina 41  Denver 13

Outlier B: Denver 30  Carolina 7

 

Simulation 2–Manning out for second half

Carolina wins 65.93%

Denver wins 34.07%

Average Score: Carolina 25.0  Denver 15.9

 

Simulation 3–Newton injured late in Q2

Carolina wins 43.7%

Denver wins 56.3%

Average Score: Denver 20.6  Carolina 16.2

 

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