We have done something we’ve never done before for Super Bowl 50. Normally, when we run computer simulations, we run them 100 times. It take about .1 second to run it 100 times. Last night, after inputting the statistical data and weather forecast, we ran the simulation 10,000 times. It took much longer, almost .3 second. We then ran it again subbing Brock Osweiler for Peyton Manning, simulating a Manning injury or inability to perform as acceptable levels. To be fair, we then ran it again with Cam Newton leaving the game in the second quarter due to injury, just to see how the game was affected.
What we found out is rather obvious: Newton is much more valuable to the Panthers than Manning is to the Broncos. With Manning leaving the game at halftime and Osweiler entering in the second half, Denver’s percentage of winning the game fell by just 2.7%. With Newton leaving the game and unable to play in the second half, Carolina scored an average of just 4.2 points in 10,000 simulations. Derek Anderson, in relief, could not lead the Panthers to Paydirt against the Bronco defense.
Let’s take a look at the numbers.
SUPER BOWL 50
Date: Sunday, February 7, 2016
Time: 3:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (6:30 PM Eastern)
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Santa Clara is about 40 miles Southeast of Downtown San Francisco in the greater San Jose area.
TV Network: CBS
Announce Team: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson, and Evan Washburn
Also Available: cbssports.com, live streaming for Verizon Wireless customers with Super Bowl app, Xbox One, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Chromecast, and Roku).
Canada: CTV
United Kingdom: BBC2 and on radio on BBC Radio 5 Live
Australia: Seven Network and Foxtel
Radio: Westwood One
Announce Team: Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, James Lofton, and Mark Malone.
Participants
AFC Champion–Denver Broncos
NFC Champion–Carolina Panthers
Las Vegas
Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 5 1/2
Totals: Over or Under 44 1/2
Money Line: Carolina -230, Denver +190
Weather Forecast: 69 degrees at kickoff with nominal winds and humidity–near perfect weather!
PiRate Ratings
PiRate: Carolina by 7.0
Mean: Carolina by 7.7
Bias: Carolina by 9.0
Average: Carolina by 7.9
Average Score: Carolina 26 Denver 18
10,000 Computer Simulations
Carolina wins 63.47%
Denver wins 36.53%
Average Score: Carolina 24.3 Denver 17.1
Standard Deviation: 9.42
Outlier A: Carolina 41 Denver 13
Outlier B: Denver 30 Carolina 7
Simulation 2–Manning out for second half
Carolina wins 65.93%
Denver wins 34.07%
Average Score: Carolina 25.0 Denver 15.9
Simulation 3–Newton injured late in Q2
Carolina wins 43.7%
Denver wins 56.3%
Average Score: Denver 20.6 Carolina 16.2
The Pi-Rate Ratings 