The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 15, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Divisional Round

Weather will not be as much of a factor this week as it was last week with sub-zero temperatures.  There is a chance for a wet field in the Carolina-Seattle game on Sunday.

The computer simulation was conducted earlier today, and the results are in.

 

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: New England by 4 1/2 to 5

Totals: 42 to 42 1/2

Money Line Avg.: New England -230  Kansas City +190

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.2

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 0.1

 

100 Simulations

New England wins: 50

Kansas City wins: 50

Average score: New England 24.8  Kansas City 24.5

St. Deviation: 11.4

Outlier NE win: 42-14

Outlier KC win: 29-6

 

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Arizona by 7

Totals: 49 1/2 to 50

Money Line Avg.: Arizona -320  Green Bay +260

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Arizona by 7.7

Mean: Arizona by 7.9

Bias: Arizona by 8.7

 

100 Simulations

Arizona wins: 73

Green Bay wins: 27

Average Score: Arizona 32.1  Green Bay 23.8

St Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Ari win: 45-16

Outlier GB win: 35-23

 

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 1 1/2 to 2

Totals: 44

Money Line Avg.: Carolina -125  Seattle +105

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 0.4

Mean: Carolina by 1.2

Bias: Carolina by 1.9

 

100 Simulations

Carolina wins 43

Seattle wins 57

Average Score: Seattle 19.9  Carolina 18.8

St Deviation: 7.2

Outlier Car win: 26-10

Outlier Sea win: 24-3

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: Denver by 7 to 7 1/2

Totals: 38 1/2 to 39

Money Line Avg.: Denver -340  Pittsburgh +285

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 0.8

Mean: Pittsburgh by 1.5

Bias: Pittsburgh by 1.2

 

100 Simulations

Denver wins: 55

Pittsburgh wins: 45

Average Score: Denver 20.0  Pittsburgh 18.6

St Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Den win: 31-10

Outlier Pit win: 24-9

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2 Comments

  1. Does this take into account Pitt not having Antonio Brown?

    Comment by Thomas — January 15, 2016 @ 10:52 am

    • Yes, it included Brown’s injury as well as others like Jeremy Maclin in his game and Peyton Manning playing less than healthy.

      We plug in the projected starters for offense, defense, and special teams in the simulator. It then creates a random number that affects the game and predicts the outcome based on the random number and the talent comps.

      Comment by piratings — January 18, 2016 @ 2:49 pm


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