The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 8, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Earlier today, we placed all the pertinent statistics, the weather forecasts, and the home field advantages into the good old computer simulator, and it spit out 100 simulations of each NFL game for the Wildcard Weekend.  When we saw the results, we had to make sure we had not made any mistakes in the input, because the output for the four games was very close to identical.


After we realized there had been no mistakes, we were left with the thought that all four games are about equal in competitive value.  There were four clear favorites, but the average scores and standard deviations of the four games tells us that these games should all be exciting.  Weather could play a factor in Minneapolis and in Cincinnati.

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 to 3 1/2

Totals: 40 to 41

Money Line Avg: Kansas City -170  Houston +150


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Kansas City by 1.7

Mean: Kansas City by 0.9

Bias: Kansas City by 0.5


100 Simulations

Kansas City Wins: 60

Houston Wins: 40

Avg. Score: Kansas City 21.0  Houston 17.3

St Deviation: 8.3

Outlier KC win: 34-10

Outlier Hou win: 27-6


Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 to 3

Totals: 45 1/2 to 46 1/2

Money Line Avg. Pittsburgh -150  Cincinnati +130


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Cincinnati by 2.0

Mean: Cincinnati by 2.3

Bias: Cincinnati by 2.6


100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins: 59

Cincinnati wins: 41

Avg. Score: Pittsburgh 24.5  Cincinnati 22.6

St. Deviation: 8.7

Outlier Pit win: 37-14

Outlier Cin win: 28-9


Sunday, January 10, 2016

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2 to 5 1/2

Totals: 39 1/2 to 40

Money Line Avg.: Seattle -230  Minnesota +190


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Seattle by 3.0

Mean: Seattle by 2.5

Bias: Seattle by 0.4


100 Simulations

Seattle wins 61

Minnesota wins 39

Avg. Score: Seattle 24.7  Minnesota 21.7

St. Deviation: 8.8

Outlier Sea win: 41-14

Outlier Min win: 28-12


Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Pick to Washington by 1

Totals: 45 to 45 1/2

Money Line Avg.: Washington -110  Green Bay -110


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Green Bay by 1.1

Mean: Washington by 0.2

Bias: Washington by 1.2


100 Simulations

Green Bay wins: 61

Washington wins: 39

Avg. Score: Green Bay 25.9  Washington 22.9

St Deviation: 7.3

Outlier GB win: 34-17

Outlier Was win: 27-16

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