The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 29, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 17: January 3, 2016

Playoffs Simplified

If you have been to some of the big box sports sites, they have not made it easy to decipher their playoff possibilities.  If X wins and Y loses, but Z wins, then who gets the bye, or who is the wildcard?  We are going to simplify it for you and tell you the scenarios that are likely to happen and not give you this X must win, and then needs help from Y, Z, A, B, and 6 other teams junk.

 

A F C

5 teams have already qualified for the playoffs, well actually just 4, but we are going to eliminate the Indianapolis Colts from the discussion, because it is not going to happen–Indy is out of luck.  10 games have to go exactly right for the Colts to win, and a good amount would have to be upsets.  Houston has a 99.9% chance of being the AFC South Champion.  New England, Cincinnati, Denver, and Kansas City are also in the playoffs.

 

The one playoff spot left will go to the New York Jets if they win at Buffalo or the Pittsburgh Steelers lose at Cleveland.  Pittsburgh will be the last team in if they beat Cleveland, while the Bills also beat the Jets.

 

The Patriots will be the #1 seed with a win or Bronco loss.  A loss and Bronco win makes Denver #1.  Both teams have easily winnable games, with New England playing Miami and Denver playing San Diego.

 

The Cincinnati Bengals can clinch the #2 seed only if they beat Baltimore and Denver loses to San Diego, or if they lose to Baltimore, Denver loses to San Diego, and Kansas City beats Oakland.

 

Kansas City can still pass the Broncos if Denver loses to San Diego, while the Chiefs beat Oakland.   If Kansas City is the wildcard at 11-5, the Chiefs will be the #5 seed over an 11-5 Jets team, but if the Broncos become the wildcard at 11-5, an 11-5 Jets team would be the #5 seed.

 

N F C

The 6 playoff teams are set.  Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle are the playoff teams, but there are still some seedings to be determined.

 

At the top, if Carolina loses to Tampa Bay at home, and Arizona beats Seattle, the Cardinals jump ahead of the Panthers for the #1 seed.  It isn’t likely to happen, so figure Carolina at #1 and Arizona at #2.

 

Minnesota plays at Green Bay, and the winner will be the #3 seed, while the loser becomes the #5 seed.

 

Here is how we see the playoffs as of today:

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Denver
3 Cincinnati
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 New York Jets
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Washington
5 Minnesota
6 Seattle
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
New York Jets over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
Seattle over Green Bay
Minnesota over Washington
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New York Jets over New England
Kansas City over Denver
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship Round
Kansas City over New York Jets
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over Kansas City

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Washington 98.6 99.1 100.1 99.3 8-7-0 354 356
N.Y. Giants 99.0 98.7 98.6 98.8 6-9-0 390 407
Dallas 98.9 97.6 97.5 98.0 4-11-0 252 340
Philadelphia 97.4 96.9 97.1 97.1 6-9-0 342 400
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 104.4 104.3 106.8 105.2 10-5-0 345 289
Green Bay 104.8 104.4 104.8 104.7 10-5-0 355 303
Detroit 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 6-9-0 334 380
Chicago 97.2 96.9 97.2 97.1 6-9-0 315 373
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 107.7 107.9 109.4 108.3 14-1-0 462 298
Atlanta 97.7 97.8 97.4 97.6 8-7-0 322 325
New Orleans 95.1 94.0 95.4 94.8 6-9-0 388 459
Tampa Bay 94.2 93.7 92.7 93.5 6-9-0 332 379
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 112.2 112.3 113.9 112.8 13-2-0 483 277
Seattle 109.0 108.4 108.7 108.7 9-6-0 387 271
St. Louis 96.8 97.6 97.5 97.3 7-8-0 264 311
San Francisco 94.2 92.9 93.9 93.7 4-11-0 219 371
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.8 108.5 107.9 108.4 12-3-0 455 295
N. Y. Jets 102.6 103.4 103.2 103.1 10-5-0 370 292
Buffalo 101.0 101.5 101.0 101.2 7-8-0 357 342
Miami 94.7 94.2 93.0 94.0 5-10-0 290 379
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 106.9 107.6 107.8 107.4 11-4-0 395 263
Pittsburgh 107.2 107.2 106.9 107.1 9-6-0 395 307
Baltimore 98.2 97.3 96.8 97.4 5-10-0 312 377
Cleveland 92.6 92.3 92.8 92.6 3-12-0 266 404
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 100.0 101.4 101.0 100.8 8-7-0 309 307
Indianapolis 95.8 96.1 95.7 95.9 7-8-0 303 384
Jacksonville 93.1 94.3 92.1 93.2 5-10-0 370 418
Tennessee 89.1 89.1 88.2 88.8 3-12-0 275 393
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.9 106.8 106.4 106.4 10-5-0 382 270
Denver 104.0 103.8 104.0 103.9 11-4-0 328 276
San Diego 96.8 97.3 97.0 97.0 4-11-0 300 371
Oakland 96.2 97.7 95.9 96.6 7-8-0 342 376

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 17      
Date of Games: January 3      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo NY Jets 0.9 0.6 0.3
Miami New England -11.1 -11.3 -11.9
Carolina Tampa Bay 16.0 16.7 19.2
Atlanta New Orleans 5.1 6.3 4.5
Cincinnati Baltimore 10.7 12.3 13.0
Cleveland Pittsburgh -12.6 -12.9 -12.1
Houston Jacksonville 9.9 10.1 11.9
Indianapolis Tennessee 9.7 10.0 10.5
Kansas City Oakland 12.7 12.1 13.5
Dallas Washington 3.3 1.5 0.4
NY Giants Philadelphia 3.6 3.8 3.5
Chicago Detroit -0.2 0.4 0.2
Green Bay Minnesota 2.9 2.6 0.5
Denver San Diego 10.2 9.5 10.0
Arizona Seattle 6.2 6.9 8.2
San Francisco St. Louis 0.4 -1.7 -0.6
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