The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 22, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 16: December 24-28, 2015

The Playoff Race Is About Over

With two weeks to go in the 2015-16 NFL schedule, the 12 playoff teams are almost set in stone with just a few exceptions.

AFC East

New England has clinched the division and has earned a first round bye.  They need one win to clinch home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs (or a Bengal loss).

The New York Jets are on the outside looking in as the #7-seed.  This week’s game with the Patriots is a virtual must-win game, because they lose tiebreakers to both Pittsburgh and Kansas City.

 

AFC North

Cincinnati plays at Denver this week, and the winner is most likely to earn the second seed and get a bye, while the loser will host a wildcard playoff game.

Pittsburgh has the easiest closing stretch with games against Baltimore and Cleveland.  If the Steelers win both games and Cincinnati loses their last two, the Steelers would earn the division title.  Pittsburgh wins a tiebreaker with the Jets, but not with Kansas City.

 

AFC South

This race is still up for grabs, as Indianapolis trails Houston by a game.  The Texans can clinch the division with one more win or one Colt loss.  Houston travels to 3-11 Tennessee, where the Titans would own the first pick in the 2016 draft if the season ended today, so the Texans are definitely in the driver’s seat.

 

AFC West

Kansas City can still win the division, as the Chiefs win the divisional tiebreaker over Denver, if they both finish 11-5 or 10-6.  The Chiefs hold the tiebreaker over both Pittsburgh and the New York Jets.

 

NFC East

This is the one division with a lot still up for grabs.  Washington leads Philadelphia and the New York Giants by a game, but the Redskins finish with road games against Philadelphia and Dallas.  If the Eagles win this weekend, they will pass the Redskins based on better divisional record.  The Giants can still win the division by winning out, which would include a week 17 victory over Philadelphia, while the Redskins lose twice.

 

NFC North

Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot but not the division.  If they lose to Minnesota in week 17 and finish in a tie, the Vikings will be the division winner.  The Vikings can only lose out to the Falcons in a tiebreaker situation if Seattle also finishes in a tie all at 9-7.

 

NFC South

Carolina must lose twice to have a chance to not have home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  Atlanta must win twice, and Seattle and Minnesota must both lose twice for the Falcons to make the playoffs.

 

NFC West

Arizona has already clinched the division, and Seattle has already clinched a wildcard spot.  The Cardinals can clinch the number two seed with a win over Green Bay or a loss by Green Bay to Minnesota in week 17, and they can clinch the top seed if they win out and Carolina loses their final two games.

 

Our Playoff Projections and Predictions Follow the Ratings and Spreads Below

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
N.Y. Giants 101.1 101.0 101.1 101.1 6-8-0 373 358
Philadelphia 98.7 98.4 98.8 98.6 6-8-0 318 362
Dallas 99.2 97.9 98.0 98.4 4-10-0 246 324
Washington 97.3 97.6 98.4 97.8 7-7-0 316 332
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 106.6 106.4 107.0 106.7 10-4-0 347 265
Minnesota 102.3 102.0 104.3 102.9 9-5-0 296 272
Detroit 99.3 98.2 98.3 98.6 5-9-0 302 363
Chicago 97.0 96.4 96.6 96.7 5-9-0 289 352
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 109.4 109.9 111.5 110.3 14-0-0 449 278
Atlanta 96.0 95.8 95.3 95.7 7-7-0 302 312
Tampa Bay 94.4 94.2 93.3 94.0 6-8-0 311 353
New Orleans 94.5 93.0 94.4 94.0 5-9-0 350 432
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 110.4 110.3 111.7 110.8 12-2-0 445 269
Seattle 110.8 110.4 111.0 110.7 9-5-0 370 248
St. Louis 95.0 95.6 95.2 95.3 6-8-0 241 294
San Francisco 94.8 93.7 95.1 94.5 4-10-0 202 339
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 109.4 109.2 108.7 109.1 12-2-0 435 269
N. Y. Jets 102.0 102.7 102.4 102.4 9-5-0 344 272
Buffalo 100.7 101.2 100.5 100.8 6-8-0 341 336
Miami 95.4 95.1 94.0 94.8 5-9-0 278 361
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 108.7 108.9 108.8 108.8 9-5-0 378 287
Cincinnati 106.9 107.7 107.7 107.4 11-3-0 378 243
Baltimore 96.7 95.6 94.9 95.7 4-10-0 292 360
Cleveland 91.7 91.2 91.5 91.5 3-11-0 253 387
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 98.2 99.4 98.7 98.8 7-7-0 275 301
Indianapolis 95.1 95.2 94.7 95.0 6-8-0 285 372
Jacksonville 93.7 95.3 93.1 94.0 5-9-0 343 380
Tennessee 90.9 91.1 90.5 90.8 3-11-0 269 359
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 106.8 107.9 107.7 107.5 9-5-0 365 257
Denver 104.0 103.7 103.9 103.9 10-4-0 308 259
San Diego 96.7 97.1 96.9 96.9 4-10-0 280 348
Oakland 96.3 97.9 96.0 96.7 6-8-0 319 356

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 16      
Date of Games: December 24-28      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Oakland San Diego 2.1 3.3 1.6
Philadelphia Washington 3.9 3.3 2.9
NY Jets New England -4.4 -3.5 -3.3
Tennessee Houston -5.3 -6.3 -6.2
Kansas City Cleveland 18.1 19.7 19.2
Miami Indianapolis 2.8 2.4 1.8
New Orleans Jacksonville 3.3 0.2 3.8
Detroit San Francisco 6.5 6.5 5.2
Buffalo Dallas 4.5 6.3 5.5
Tampa Bay Chicago -0.1 0.3 -1.1
Atlanta Carolina -10.9 -11.6 -13.7
Minnesota NY Giants 4.2 4.0 6.2
Seattle St. Louis 18.8 17.8 18.8
Arizona Green Bay 6.8 6.9 7.7
Baltimore Pittsburgh -10.0 -11.3 -11.9
Denver Cincinnati 0.1 -1.0 -0.8

 

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Denver
3 Cincinnati
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Pittsburgh
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Washington
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Washington
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Denver
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship Round
Kansas City over New England
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over Kansas City

 

 

 

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