Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 1

The 2015-16 Computer Simulated Playoffs for FBS football has been extended to 24 teams, using the same format that is presently used for the actual FCS playoffs.

 

In today’s opening round, the number 9 through 24 seeds play at the home stadium of the better seed, while the top 8 seeds receive a bye to the second round, where they will host winners from today’s round.

 

For this computer simulation, we simulated each game only one time.  If we had done 100 or 1,000 simulations for each game, there would be no upsets, and the top seeds would have won every contest, making this experiment useless.

 

Here is today’s Schedule of Round 1 Games:

#24 Arkansas St. at #9 Notre Dame

#23 Bowling Green at #10 Florida St.

#22 Western Kentucky at #11 TCU

#21 San Diego St. at #12 Baylor

#20 Utah at #13 Northwestern

#19 Michigan at #14 Oregon

#18 Michigan at #15 Oklahoma St.

#17 Houston at #16 Ole Miss

 

Here are the results of those Round 1 games:

Team	1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#9 Notre Dame	14	14	10	0	38	24	211	174	385
#24 Arkansas St.	0	3	0	7	10	13	12	169	181
#10 Florida St.	6	14	10	7	37	23	179	301	480
#23 Bowling Green	3	7	3	7	20	18	86	311	397
#11 TCU	20	14	10	7	51	30	221	307	528
#22 Western Kent.	2	0	14	7	23	18	90	276	366
#12 Baylor	0	3	14	10	27	19	179	194	373
#21 San Diego St.	0	0	7	6	13	14	156	138	294
#13 Northwestern	3	3	10	3	19	16	180	147	327
#20 Utah	0	10	7	0	17	17	91	164	255
#14 Oklahoma St.	10	0	7	7	24	20	152	223	375
#19 Michigan	6	14	7	0	27	22	164	209	373
#15 Oregon	3	13	9	0	25	18	208	159	367
#18 Florida	3	6	3	0	12	12	114	126	240
#16 Ole Miss	16	14	6	3	39	27	177	331	508
#17 Houston	7	10	7	0	24	18	88	209	297

Here are the Round 2 Pairings to be published Friday or Saturday, December 11-12

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame	at
#8 North Carolina
#10 Florida St.	at
#7 Stanford
#11 TCU	at
#6 Ohio St.
#12 Baylor	at
#5 Michigan St.
#13 Northwestern	at
#4 Iowa
#19 Michigan	at
#3 Oklahoma
#15 Oregon	at
#2 Alabama
#16 Ole Miss	at
#1 Clemson