The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 15, 2015

College Football Preview: November 17-21, 2015

What Is the Difference In All These Rankings?

Every year, we receive inquiries from readers that somehow do not read everything on this site.  We know many of you have just a few precious minutes to engage in your sports reading fun, so you may never see the meaning of all our ratings.  Plus, we added a rating this year and have not explained it yet.

 

First, the PiRate Rating is our standard long-time rating that we have used for multiple decades.  It is rather easy for us to compute this rating, and because of it, we can compute ratings for all FBS and FCS teams.  Since this site is basically in existence for people to look at our spreads and compare them to the Las Vegas Spread, we do not devote much time to FCS ratings and only compile them to give you a spread when a FBS team plays a FCS team, as three FBS teams play three FCS teams this week.

 

The Mean and Bias ratings came along about 12 years ago when we began to notice changes in the way the game is played and added extra statistics to our ratings, namely yards per point, yards per play, consistency of yards gained and given up, and a few other things.  We created a sliding scale to adjust these yards to the strength of schedule, and then we weighted these extra ratings two different ways.  The Mean Ratings took all of these new factors and combined it with the original PiRate Rating and weighed them all equally to come up with a new rating.  The Bias Rating used more weight on certain data than on others, with the original PiRate Rating weighing more than all others.

 

Therefore, the PiRate and Bias Ratings will have a strong correlation, while the Mean Rating will be a lone wolf.  The Mean will tend to be a little more conservative in spread margins, and it will be a little more generous on the side of underdogs.

 

All three of these ratings are “Predictive Ratings.”  Predictive Ratings always look forward to indicate what we think the team will do in the next game it plays.  It gives little weight to what the team did 8 weeks ago, especially if the team is playing much better or much worse now than it did then.

 

The new Retrodictive Ranking is not a rating at all, and thus you get no numbers with this rankings.  The teams are simply ranked from 1 to 128 based on what they have done so far this season.  It is not used to try to predict what a team will do in the future; it is only grading them on what they have done to date.  Wins and strength of schedule is about all that matters in this rating, although the way we calculate strength of schedule may be totally different than the way other retrodictive rankings calculate strength of schedule.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.2 128.9 131.3 130.5
2 Oklahoma 128.2 125.1 129.2 127.5
3 Ohio St. 128.7 123.9 129.5 127.4
4 Baylor 126.7 122.7 126.6 125.3
5 North Carolina 122.0 122.7 122.8 122.5
6 Stanford 123.1 120.6 123.2 122.3
7 Clemson 121.8 122.8 121.9 122.2
8 Notre Dame 122.6 119.9 122.4 121.6
9 LSU 121.4 118.2 121.2 120.3
10 TCU 122.5 114.2 122.9 119.9
11 USC 121.4 117.2 120.8 119.8
12 Arkansas 121.5 116.7 121.0 119.7
13 Ole Miss 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
14 Florida 119.7 116.4 119.7 118.6
15 Utah 120.4 115.1 119.5 118.3
16 Tennessee 119.6 115.5 119.4 118.2
17 UCLA 120.6 114.5 118.9 118.0
18 Oklahoma St. 118.2 115.3 118.3 117.3
19 Michigan 117.6 114.8 117.4 116.6
20 Oregon 118.3 112.6 118.2 116.4
21 Georgia 117.8 112.2 117.2 115.7
22 Florida St. 114.9 116.2 114.5 115.2
23 Mississippi St. 115.6 112.4 115.9 114.6
24 Michigan St. 115.1 112.2 114.3 113.9
25 Auburn 115.4 112.1 114.3 113.9
26 Texas A&M 115.7 112.2 113.5 113.8
27 California 115.3 109.7 114.3 113.1
28 Houston 109.9 115.6 111.9 112.5
29 Wisconsin 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
30 Arizona St. 113.8 108.6 112.7 111.7
31 Bowling Green 108.7 113.6 111.9 111.4
32 Iowa 110.5 112.4 110.9 111.3
33 West Virginia 113.2 107.7 112.4 111.1
34 Georgia Tech 111.8 109.5 110.3 110.5
35 Virginia Tech 110.6 110.2 110.5 110.4
36 North Carolina St. 109.6 110.8 108.3 109.6
37 Washington 109.9 106.6 109.8 108.8
38 Pittsburgh 108.2 108.8 108.8 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.3 105.8 109.9 108.3
40 Nebraska 108.9 107.2 108.4 108.2
41 Boise St. 109.4 106.0 109.1 108.2
42 Louisville 107.4 109.7 107.1 108.1
43 Navy 105.9 109.7 107.0 107.5
44 Memphis 106.5 107.7 107.3 107.2
45 Missouri 108.4 105.0 107.5 107.0
46 Temple 105.8 107.9 106.5 106.7
47 Arizona 108.5 103.3 108.1 106.6
48 San Diego St. 104.5 109.0 106.2 106.6
49 Penn St. 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
50 South Carolina 108.2 104.6 106.7 106.5
51 Cincinnati 105.0 106.9 106.3 106.1
52 BYU 106.2 105.4 106.6 106.1
53 Western Kentucky 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
54 Texas Tech 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
55 Minnesota 105.4 104.0 104.9 104.8
56 Duke 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5
57 Illinois 105.2 103.1 104.3 104.2
58 Toledo 103.0 104.2 104.4 103.9
59 Louisiana Tech 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
60 Northwestern 103.9 103.9 103.4 103.7
61 Colorado 105.8 101.0 104.1 103.6
62 Texas 104.7 100.9 104.5 103.4
63 Miami 103.0 103.3 103.4 103.2
64 Western Michigan 101.9 102.9 103.2 102.7
65 Kansas St. 105.3 95.5 104.3 101.7
66 Virginia 101.7 100.2 101.5 101.1
67 Vanderbilt 101.7 97.9 101.8 100.5
68 Kentucky 102.3 97.8 100.6 100.2
69 Boston College 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
70 Iowa St. 100.6 97.2 100.9 99.6
71 Georgia Southern 98.0 100.7 99.4 99.4
72 Northern Illinois 97.2 101.3 98.2 98.9
73 Marshall 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
74 Utah St. 98.9 99.3 98.2 98.8
75 Appalachian St. 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
76 South Florida 96.3 102.1 97.4 98.6
77 Air Force 96.9 101.0 97.0 98.3
78 Indiana 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1
79 Wake Forest 95.7 98.8 95.2 96.6
80 Southern Mississippi 95.2 97.3 96.0 96.2
81 Purdue 96.6 95.7 95.4 95.9
82 Syracuse 94.4 97.0 93.9 95.1
83 Maryland 95.4 94.2 95.4 95.0
84 Arkansas St. 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
85 East Carolina 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
86 Central Michigan 90.9 95.0 93.1 93.0
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 92.1 92.9 92.8
88 San Jose St. 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
89 Colorado St. 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.6
90 Tulsa 90.5 94.8 92.0 92.4
91 Rutgers 94.2 90.8 91.9 92.3
92 New Mexico 91.7 92.7 90.9 91.8
93 Connecticut 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
94 Nevada 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
95 Ohio 86.8 90.9 88.2 88.6
96 Oregon St. 90.2 86.8 88.1 88.4
97 Florida International 86.8 89.2 86.9 87.6
98 Tulane 85.2 87.8 84.4 85.8
99 Buffalo 83.2 89.1 84.9 85.7
100 Akron 83.3 89.0 84.8 85.7
101 Massachusetts 84.1 87.2 84.7 85.3
102 UNLV 83.9 85.9 84.9 84.9
103 SMU 82.7 86.3 82.0 83.7
104 Florida Atlantic 82.2 85.6 83.1 83.6
105 UL-Lafayette 82.1 84.9 82.2 83.1
106 Troy 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
107 Fresno St. 82.1 85.6 80.1 82.6
108 Ball St. 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
109 Army 77.9 86.3 79.4 81.2
110 Georgia St. 80.0 80.6 80.6 80.4
111 Central Florida 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
112 Rice 78.8 81.9 78.7 79.8
113 Wyoming 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
114 Kent St. 78.4 81.1 78.9 79.5
115 UT-San Antonio 78.5 80.8 78.6 79.3
116 Hawaii 79.0 80.7 77.9 79.2
117 South Alabama 75.9 81.9 77.2 78.3
118 Old Dominion 76.8 81.2 76.6 78.2
119 UTEP 76.6 79.3 76.1 77.3
120 Miami (O) 74.0 78.9 74.6 75.8
121 Kansas 78.2 71.8 75.9 75.3
122 Texas St. 74.2 77.0 73.9 75.0
123 North Texas 73.6 77.6 73.7 75.0
124 Idaho 72.5 77.4 73.4 74.4
125 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
126 New Mexico St. 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 70.2 71.0 70.9
128 Charlotte 68.7 71.1 69.1 69.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Oklahoma
5 Notre Dame
6 Iowa
7 Florida
8 Oklahoma St.
9 Baylor
10 Stanford
11 TCU
12 Michigan
13 Michigan St.
14 Houston
15 North Carolina
16 LSU
17 USC
18 Utah
19 Mississippi St.
20 Navy
21 Ole Miss
22 Florida St.
23 Memphis
24 Northwestern
25 Wisconsin
26 Tennessee
27 UCLA
28 Oregon
29 Toledo
30 Texas A&M
31 Bowling Green
32 Arkansas
33 Penn St.
34 Western Kentucky
35 Washington St.
36 Georgia
37 Pittsburgh
38 California
39 Temple
40 West Virginia
41 BYU
42 Cincinnati
43 Louisville
44 Auburn
45 Miami (Fla)
46 Washington
47 Boise St.
48 Appalachian St.
49 North Carolina St.
50 Louisiana Tech
51 San Diego St.
52 Northern Illinois
53 Duke
54 Texas Tech
55 Georgia Southern
56 Arizona St.
57 Nebraska
58 Air Force
59 Illinois
60 Virginia Tech
61 Marshall
62 South Florida
63 Kansas St.
64 Minnesota
65 Arkansas St.
66 Arizona
67 Western Michigan
68 Georgia Tech
69 Central Michigan
70 Texas
71 Indiana
72 Southern Miss.
73 South Carolina
74 Connecticut
75 Iowa St.
76 Vanderbilt
77 Utah St.
78 Missouri
79 Tulsa
80 Virginia
81 Kentucky
82 Buffalo
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Maryland
85 Ohio
86 East Carolina
87 San Jose St.
88 Rutgers
89 Syracuse
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 New Mexico
93 Akron
94 Colorado St.
95 Nevada
96 Wake Forest
97 South Alabama
98 Purdue
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Oregon St.
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Old Dominion
104 UNLV
105 Tulane
106 Ball St.
107 Rice
108 Georgia St.
109 Kent St.
110 Fresno St.
111 Kansas
112 SMU
113 Texas St.
114 UTEP
115 Idaho
116 Massachusetts
117 Florida Atlantic
118 Army
119 Hawaii
120 Miami (O)
121 UTSA
122 New Mexico St.
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 5-1 8-2 105.8 107.9 106.5 106.7
Cincinnati 3-3 6-4 105.0 106.9 106.3 106.1
South Florida 4-2 6-4 96.3 102.1 97.4 98.6
East Carolina 2-4 4-6 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
Connecticut 3-3 5-5 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
Central Florida 0-6 0-10 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 6-0 10-0 109.9 115.6 111.9 112.5
Navy 6-0 8-1 105.9 109.7 107.0 107.5
Memphis 4-2 8-2 106.5 107.7 107.3 107.2
Tulsa 2-4 5-5 90.5 94.8 92.0 92.4
Tulane 1-5 3-7 85.2 87.8 84.4 85.8
SMU 0-6 1-9 82.7 86.3 82.0 83.7
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-0 10-0 121.8 122.8 121.9 122.2
Florida St. 6-2 8-2 114.9 116.2 114.5 115.2
North Carolina St. 2-4 6-4 109.6 110.8 108.3 109.6
Louisville 5-2 6-4 107.4 109.7 107.1 108.1
Boston College 0-7 3-7 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
Wake Forest 1-5 3-7 95.7 98.8 95.2 96.6
Syracuse 1-5 3-7 94.4 97.0 93.9 95.1
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 6-0 9-1 122.0 122.7 122.8 122.5
Georgia Tech 1-6 3-7 111.8 109.5 110.3 110.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 5-5 110.6 110.2 110.5 110.4
Pittsburgh 5-1 7-3 108.2 108.8 108.8 108.6
Duke 3-3 6-4 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5
Miami 3-3 6-4 103.0 103.3 103.4 103.2
Virginia 2-4 3-7 101.7 100.2 101.5 101.1
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.2 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 128.2 125.1 129.2 127.5
Baylor 5-1 8-1 126.7 122.7 126.6 125.3
TCU 6-1 9-1 122.5 114.2 122.9 119.9
Oklahoma St. 7-0 10-0 118.2 115.3 118.3 117.3
West Virginia 2-4 5-4 113.2 107.7 112.4 111.1
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
Texas 3-4 4-6 104.7 100.9 104.5 103.4
Kansas St. 0-6 3-6 105.3 95.5 104.3 101.7
Iowa St. 2-5 3-7 100.6 97.2 100.9 99.6
Kansas 0-7 0-10 78.2 71.8 75.9 75.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.0 110.3 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-0 10-0 128.7 123.9 129.5 127.4
Michigan 5-1 8-2 117.6 114.8 117.4 116.6
Michigan St. 5-1 9-1 115.1 112.2 114.3 113.9
Penn St. 4-2 7-3 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
Indiana 0-6 4-6 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1
Maryland 0-6 2-8 95.4 94.2 95.4 95.0
Rutgers 1-6 3-7 94.2 90.8 91.9 92.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-1 8-2 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
Iowa 6-0 10-0 110.5 112.4 110.9 111.3
Nebraska 3-4 5-6 108.9 107.2 108.4 108.2
Minnesota 1-5 4-6 105.4 104.0 104.9 104.8
Illinois 2-4 5-5 105.2 103.1 104.3 104.2
Northwestern 4-2 8-2 103.9 103.9 103.4 103.7
Purdue 1-5 2-8 96.6 95.7 95.4 95.9
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.6 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 6-0 8-2 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
Marshall 6-1 9-2 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
Middle Tennessee 4-2 5-5 93.4 92.1 92.9 92.8
Florida International 3-4 5-6 86.8 89.2 86.9 87.6
Florida Atlantic 2-5 2-8 82.2 85.6 83.1 83.6
Old Dominion 3-3 5-5 76.8 81.2 76.6 78.2
Charlotte 0-7 2-8 68.7 71.1 69.1 69.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 5-1 7-3 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
Southern Mississippi 5-1 7-3 95.2 97.3 96.0 96.2
Rice 2-4 4-6 78.8 81.9 78.7 79.8
UT-San Antonio 2-4 2-8 78.5 80.8 78.6 79.3
UTEP 2-4 4-6 76.6 79.3 76.1 77.3
North Texas 1-5 1-9 73.6 77.6 73.7 75.0
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.1 86.3 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-1 122.6 119.9 122.4 121.6
BYU   7-3 106.2 105.4 106.6 106.1
Army   2-8 77.9 86.3 79.4 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.2 103.9 102.8 103.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 6-0 8-2 108.7 113.6 111.9 111.4
Ohio 3-3 6-4 86.8 90.9 88.2 88.6
Buffalo 3-3 5-5 83.2 89.1 84.9 85.7
Akron 3-3 5-5 83.3 89.0 84.8 85.7
Massachusetts 1-5 2-8 84.1 87.2 84.7 85.3
Kent St. 2-4 3-7 78.4 81.1 78.9 79.5
Miami (O) 1-6 2-9 74.0 78.9 74.6 75.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-1 103.0 104.2 104.4 103.9
Western Michigan 5-1 6-4 101.9 102.9 103.2 102.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 97.2 101.3 98.2 98.9
Central Michigan 4-2 5-5 90.9 95.0 93.1 93.0
Ball St. 2-4 3-7 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-7 1-10 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-2 7-3 109.4 106.0 109.1 108.2
Utah St. 4-3 5-5 98.9 99.3 98.2 98.8
Air Force 5-1 7-3 96.9 101.0 97.0 98.3
Colorado St. 3-3 5-5 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.6
New Mexico 4-2 6-4 91.7 92.7 90.9 91.8
Wyoming 1-6 1-10 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-0 7-3 104.5 109.0 106.2 106.6
San Jose St. 3-3 4-6 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
Nevada 4-2 6-4 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
UNLV 2-4 3-7 83.9 85.9 84.9 84.9
Fresno St. 2-5 3-7 82.1 85.6 80.1 82.6
Hawaii 0-7 2-9 79.0 80.7 77.9 79.2
             
MWC Averages     91.6 93.4 91.3 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 7-1 8-2 123.1 120.6 123.2 122.3
Oregon 5-2 7-3 118.3 112.6 118.2 116.4
California 3-4 6-4 115.3 109.7 114.3 113.1
Washington 2-5 4-6 109.9 106.6 109.8 108.8
Washington St. 5-2 7-3 109.3 105.8 109.9 108.3
Oregon St. 0-7 2-8 90.2 86.8 88.1 88.4
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 5-2 7-3 121.4 117.2 120.8 119.8
Utah 5-2 8-2 120.4 115.1 119.5 118.3
UCLA 4-3 7-3 120.6 114.5 118.9 118.0
Arizona St. 3-4 5-5 113.8 108.6 112.7 111.7
Arizona 3-5 6-5 108.5 103.3 108.1 106.6
Colorado 1-6 4-7 105.8 101.0 104.1 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 7-1 9-1 119.7 116.4 119.7 118.6
Tennessee 3-3 6-4 119.6 115.5 119.4 118.2
Georgia 5-3 7-3 117.8 112.2 117.2 115.7
Missouri 1-5 5-5 108.4 105.0 107.5 107.0
South Carolina 1-7 3-7 108.2 104.6 106.7 106.5
Vanderbilt 2-4 4-6 101.7 97.9 101.8 100.5
Kentucky 2-6 4-6 102.3 97.8 100.6 100.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-1 9-1 131.2 128.9 131.3 130.5
LSU 4-2 7-2 121.4 118.2 121.2 120.3
Ole Miss 4-2 7-3 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
Arkansas 4-2 6-4 121.5 116.7 121.0 119.7
Mississippi St. 3-3 7-3 115.6 112.4 115.9 114.6
Auburn 2-5 5-5 115.4 112.1 114.3 113.9
Texas A&M 3-3 7-3 115.7 112.2 113.5 113.8
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 5-1 7-2 98.0 100.7 99.4 99.4
Appalachian St. 5-1 8-2 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
Arkansas St. 6-0 7-3 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-5 82.1 84.9 82.2 83.1
Troy 2-4 3-7 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
Georgia St. 2-3 3-6 80.0 80.6 80.6 80.4
South Alabama 3-2 5-4 75.9 81.9 77.2 78.3
Texas St. 1-4 2-7 74.2 77.0 73.9 75.0
Idaho 2-5 3-7 72.5 77.4 73.4 74.4
New Mexico St. 2-3 2-7 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
UL-Monroe 0-6 1-9 71.4 70.2 71.0 70.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.4 82.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.6 105.0 110.3 108.6
4 ACC 107.5 108.3 107.2 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.6 106.4
6 Indep. 102.2 103.9 102.8 103.0
7 AAC 95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
8 MWC 91.6 93.4 91.3 92.1
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
10 CUSA 86.0 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.4 82.7

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Houston      
2 Navy      
3 Toledo      
4 Bowling Green      
5 Western Kentucky    

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Boston College  
9 Iowa St.  
8 Indiana  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Purdue  
5 Syracuse  
4 Maryland  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.4
2 McNeese St. 91.7
3 North Dakota St. 91.6
4 Dartmouth 91.6
5 Harvard 91.4
6 Dayton 91.1
7 Charleston Southern 90.4
8 South Dakota St. 90.3
9 Illinois St. 89.9
10 Coastal Carolina 89.8

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 17        
Bowling Green Toledo 8.2 11.9 10.0
Ohio Ball St. 9.4 11.3 10.2
         
Wednesday, November 18        
Kent St. Central Michigan -10.0 -11.4 -11.7
Northern Illinois Western Michigan -1.7 1.4 -2.0
         
Thursday, November 19        
Central Florida East Carolina -11.0 -11.6 -11.2
Texas St. Louisiana-Monroe 5.8 9.8 5.9
         
Friday, November 20        
South Florida Cincinnati -5.7 -1.8 -5.9
Boise St. Air Force 15.5 8.0 15.1
         
Saturday, November 21        
Iowa Purdue 16.9 19.7 18.5
Penn St. Michigan -8.1 -5.1 -8.1
Minnesota Illinois 3.2 3.9 3.6
Maryland Indiana 0.2 -1.0 0.6
Middle Tennessee North Texas 22.3 17.0 21.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina -8.4 -9.5 -9.3
Kansas St. Iowa St. 7.7 1.3 6.4
Kansas West Virginia -32.5 -33.4 -34.0
Florida Florida Atlantic 39.5 32.8 38.6
Army Rutgers -14.3 -2.5 -10.5
Temple Memphis 1.8 2.7 1.7
North Carolina St. Syracuse 18.2 16.8 17.4
Miami (Fla) Georgia Tech -6.8 -4.2 -4.9
Massachusetts Miami (O) 12.1 10.3 12.1
Georgia St. South Alabama 6.6 1.2 5.9
Florida Int’l Western Kentucky -16.3 -14.0 -17.2
BYU Fresno St. 27.1 22.8 29.5
Ohio St. Michigan St. 16.6 14.7 18.2
Oregon USC -0.1 -1.6 0.4
Utah UCLA 2.8 3.6 3.6
Wisconsin Northwestern 11.8 11.4 11.4
Connecticut Houston -18.1 -18.9 -18.9
Pittsburgh Louisville 3.8 2.1 4.7
Utah St. Nevada 12.8 9.3 12.3
UTEP Louisiana Tech -24.3 -21.8 -25.9
Arizona St. Arizona 7.3 7.3 6.6
Clemson Wake Forest 29.1 27.0 29.7
Virginia Duke -0.2 -1.8 -0.5
Akron Buffalo 2.6 2.4 2.4
Ole Miss LSU 3.8 1.7 1.9
Southern Miss. Old Dominion 21.4 19.1 22.4
Auburn Idaho 46.9 38.7 44.9
Louisiana-Lafayette New Mexico St. 13.5 14.6 13.5
New Mexico Colorado St. 1.9 3.1 1.5
Oregon St. Washington -16.7 -16.8 -18.7
Tulsa Navy -12.4 -11.9 -12.0
Arkansas Mississippi St. 8.9 7.3 8.1
Georgia Georgia Southern 21.8 13.5 19.8
UTSA Rice 2.2 1.4 2.4
Missouri Tennessee -8.2 -7.5 -8.9
Oklahoma St. Baylor -5.5 -4.4 -5.3
Vanderbilt Texas A&M -11.5 -11.8 -9.2
Kentucky Charlotte 36.6 29.7 34.5
Boston College Notre Dame -20.9 -15.4 -22.3
Oklahoma TCU 8.7 13.9 9.3
SMU Tulane -0.5 0.5 -0.4
Stanford California 9.8 12.9 10.9
UNLV San Diego St. -18.1 -20.6 -18.8
Washington St. Colorado 6.5 7.8 8.8
Hawaii San Jose St. -8.7 -9.7 -10.0
         
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 12 PiRate    
South Carolina Citadel 17    
Florida St. Chattanooga 31    
Alabama Charleston Southern 41    

 

Bowl Projections By Conference

POWER 5 CONFERENCES

ACC

Clemson has secured the Atlantic Division title, while North Carolina will win the Coastal with a win in either of its last two games (Virginia Tech & North Carolina St.) or a Pittsburgh loss in either of its last two games (Louisville & Miami).

 

As of today, the PiRates agree that North Carolina is the strongest team in the league.  We project the Tar Heels to win out and upset a 12-0 Clemson team in the ACC Championship Game, and with numerous other losses from in front of Carolina, we project the Heels in the Playoffs this week.  That could change quickly, as Virginia Tech is waiting in ambush in the mountains this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: 9 Including Notre Dame

Still Alive: 1

Virginia Tech is 5-5 with games remaining against North Carolina and Virginia

 

Big Ten

Michigan State visits Ohio State this week, and at this point in the season, we cannot see the Spartans winning at the Giant Horseshoe.  Ohio State has to finish the regular season at the Big House, and we believe Michigan will be waiting to send the Buckeyes home with black eyes.  If Michigan can win a tough road game at Penn State, the finale with their arch-rival will be for the East Division title.  At this moment, we favor the Wolverines to run the table and then really upset the league by winning the Big Ten Conference Championship Game to earn a Rose Bowl bid and not a playoff spot.

 

In the West, Iowa is 10-0 with games against Purdue and Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes should quickly dismiss the Boilermakers but the game in Lincoln is going to be very tough, especially since the Cornhuskers will enter this game coming off a bye and a two-game winning streak and needing a win to guarantee themselves a bowl bid.  Should Nebraska finish 5-7, the Cornhuskers are the first on the waiting list if there are not 80 bowl eligible teams.  With the top APR score, Nebraska would be the first 5-7 team in the pecking order.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 7

Still Alive: 4

Indiana is 4-6 with winnable games left against Maryland and Purdue.  Illinois is 5-5 with games remaining against Minnesota and Northwestern.  Nebraska is 5-6 with a game remaining against Iowa.  Minnesota is 4-6 with games remaining against Illinois and Wisconsin.

 

Big 12

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State appear to be headed to a game for all the marbles on November 28.  Baylor’s hopes died with Seth Russell’s injury, while TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State was probably enough to do the Horned Frogs in.  If the Winner of “Bedlam” wins out, that team stands a strong chance of making the playoffs.  This league should place two teams in the New Year’s Six Bowls, and we believe both Oklahoma schools will take those spots.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 5

Still Alive: 3

West Virginia is 5-4 and needs to win one of their final three games (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State).

Kansas State is 3-6 and must win out against Iowa State, Kansas, and West Virgina.

Texas is 4-6 and must win out against Texas Tech and Baylor

 

Pac-12

Stanford and Utah both lost this past weekend, and now the Pac-12 appears to be out of the playoff picture this year.  In the North, Stanford must beat California to win the division.  If  Cal wins and Oregon beats USC and Oregon State, the Ducks would claim the division title.  Washington State can tie for the division but would lose out on all possible tiebreakers.

 

The South is wide open between USC, Utah, and UCLA.  The Utes and Trojans are both 5-2, while the Bruins are 4-3.  The PiRates believe USC will lose to Oregon and beat UCLA and then take down Stanford in the conference title game to earn a trip to the Rose Bowl and give Clay Helton a very good chance to remove the interim tag from his title.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 8

Still Alive: 2

Arizona State is 5-5 and must win one more game (Arizona & California)

Washington is 4-6 and must win out (Oregon State & Washington State)

The PiRates believe that 9 teams will earn bowl bids for a league that has 7 bowl bids, meaning two teams will earn at-large bids from this league.

 

SEC

Florida sewed up the East Division title two weeks ago, and the Gators have already finished their regular season SEC slate at 7-1.  The Gators finish the regular season with home games against Florida Atlantic and Florida State, where two wins would basically make the SEC Championship Game an Elite 8 Playoff Game.

 

Alabama is a win over Auburn away from clinching the West Division title.  If Auburn pulls off the great upset, then Ole Miss can still win the West by knocking off LSU and Mississippi State.  If the Tide and Gators face off in the title game, the winner has a 100% chance of earning a playoff bid.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 9

Still Alive: 4

Auburn is 5-5 and only needs to beat Idaho this week to earn a bowl bid.  If the Vandals win, then the Tigers must beat Alabama the following week.

Missouri is 5-5 and must win one more game (Tennessee & Arkansas).

Vanderbilt is 4-6 and must win out over Texas A&M and Tennessee.

Kentucky is 4-6 and must win out over Charlotte and Louisville.

 

GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES

American Athletic

Houston escaped with a win over Memphis this past weekend, and now the Cougars stand alone at 10-0 with Connecticut and Navy plus the AAC Championship Game in their way to earning a New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  The Cougars have a tough trio to get by here, as Connecticut is coming off a bye week and hosts the Cougars, Navy destroyed Memphis at the Liberty Bowl, and South Florida or Temple would be a tough out in the title game.

 

Navy is now the clear-cut number two team in line for the New Year’s 6 Bowl bid, and if the Middies win out, they will get that bowl bid.  Memphis and Temple played their way out of contention.

 

With USF handling Temple Saturday night, the Bulls are just a game out of first place in the East Division.  Temple closes with Memphis and Connecticut, while USF plays Cincinnati and UCF.  USF owns the tiebreaker over Temple if the teams tie.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 6

Still Alive: 3

Tulsa is 5-5 with Navy and Tulane remaining on the schedule

Connecticut is 5-5 with Houston and Temple left to play.

East Carolina is 4-6 and must beat both UCF and Cincinnati.

 

Conference USA

Western Kentucky and Marshall will close out the regular season in Bowling Green, and the winner of that game will be the East Division winner, while Louisiana Tech and Southern Mississippi will decide the West Division winner in their final regular season game.

 

Western Kentucky still has a slight chance to make it to the New Year’s 6 Bowl picture if the Hilltoppers win out, and Houston loses twice, while Navy loses once.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 4

Still Alive: 5

Middle Tennessee is 5-5 and must beat either North Texas or UTSA to be bowl eligible.

Old Dominion is 5-5 and must beat either Southern Miss. or Florida Atlantic to be bowl eligible.

Florida International is 5-6 and must beat Western Kentucky to become bowl eligible.

UTEP is 4-6 and must sweep Louisiana Tech and North Texas.

Rice is 4-6 and must sweep UTSA and Charlotte.

 

Independents

Notre Dame is included in the ACC section.  BYU is already bowl eligible and will appear in either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.  Army is eliminated from contention this year, and their Poinsettia Bowl bid will likely go to a Pac-12 team as an at-large invitation.

 

Mid-American 

The East is a done deal.  Bowling Green is the division winner and has a small chance of sneaking into the New Year’s 6 Bowl picture.

 

The West is still very much up for grabs between Toledo, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois.

 

We project eight teams to be bowl eligible, and because we only see 80 bowl eligible teams for 80 berths, all eight MAC teams will earn bowl bids.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 5

Still Alive: 3

Central Michigan is 5-5 and needs one more win (Kent State and Eastern Michigan)

Akron is 5-5 and needs one more win (Buffalo and Kent State)

Buffalo is 5-5 and needs one more win (Akron and Massachusetts)

 

Mountain West

San Diego State wrapped up the West Division flag and appears to be the heavy favorite for winning the MWC Championship Game regardless of their opponent.

In the Mountain Division, three teams are still in contention.  With New Mexico winning at Boise State, the Lobos are now a surprise contender in the division and would take the title with home wins over Colorado State and Air Force.  Air Force has the lead at the moment, but the Falcons must finish the regular season at Boise State and at New Mexico.  As for Boise State, the Broncos do not control their own destiny.  BSU finishes with Air Force and San Jose State, and they would need for New Mexico to lose in order to win the division.   There are remote possibilities where Utah State or Colorado State could still win the division, but too many things would have to occur.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 5

Still Alive: 3

Utah State is 5-5 and must beat either Nevada or BYU to become bowl eligible.

Colorado State is 5-5 and must beat either New Mexico or Fresno St. to become bowl eligible.

San Jose State is 4-6 and must beat both Hawaii and Boise State to become bowl eligible.

 

Sun Belt

Arkansas State has the lead by a game over both Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, and the Red Wolves close the season with New Mexico State and Texas State, so they should win the SBC title at 8-0 in conference play.  Arkansas State has to lose both for either Appy State or GSU to take the league crown.  All three will go to bowls, and as many as five teams could find their way into a bowl.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 3

Still Alive: 3

South Alabama is 5-4 and needs one win in their final three games (Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Appy St.).

Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-5 and must win two of their final three games (New Mexico St., Appalachian St., & Troy).

Georgia State is 3-6 and must win their final three games (South Alabama, Troy, & Georgia Southern).

 

Complete Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC South Florida vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Appalachian St. * vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army San Jose St. vs. California *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Temple vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Western Michigan * vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Utah St. * vs. Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nevada * vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Arizona * vs. Buffalo *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Central Michigan * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Baylor
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Ole Miss
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. Arkansas
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Ohio St.
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. North Carolina
Orange Playoff Playoff Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Oregon
Ouback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. USC
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/B10 SEC Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. LSU
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

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