The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 1, 2015

College Football Preview: November 3-7, 2015

The 5-Star College Football Week of the Season
This is the biggest week of the college football season so far. Many questions will be answered by this time next Sunday. The second issuing of the NCAA Playoff Committee will be much different than the first one that comes out Tuesday, as many of the contending teams face off against other contending teams this week. Additionally, there are key games that will weed out conference championship pretenders from the contenders. And, in multiple cases, there will be games where the winners take a giant step toward bowl eligibity, while the losers drop out of the picture.

This is the great Bonanza for you the fan this week.

Tuesday
Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo is still in the race for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. The Rockets hold wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, and they would need for Memphis and Houston to lose before they would have a shot, but it is still possible. Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West Division race.

Wednesday
Ohio at Bowling Green: The MAC East Division title goes to Bowling Green if the Falcons win this game. If Ohio upsets BGU, the Falcons still have a one-game lead.

Thursday
Arkansas St. at Appalachian St.: The winner will hold first place to themselves in the Sun Belt Conference. Both teams are going bowling this year, and if Appy St. wins out to finish 11-1, that could set up an incredible GoDaddy.com bowl between two 11-win teams.

Saturday
Duke at North Carolina: A week after getting “hosed” by the referees, Duke must now win at its arch-rival to stay in the ACC Coastal Division race. A Tar Heel win basically puts North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game.

Florida St. at Clemson: Another impressive CU win could vault the Tigers into the upper two spots in the Playoff bracket with no remaining teams to play as strong as FSU or Notre Dame, who Clemson would have already beaten. If Florida St. can win at Clemson and then at Florida, and if they could then win the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles would have a chance at the #4 seed.

Arkansas at Ole Miss: This could be a trap game for the Rebels. With a game coming up against LSU, Ole Miss can ill-afford to lose to Arkansas and fall below the Alabama-LSU winner. If Ole Miss can win, the Rebels stay in control in the SEC West Race.

Iowa at Indiana: The Hawkeyes can only make the Playoffs if they win out and then beat either Ohio St. or Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana was once 4-0, but they have dropped four straight games. The Hoosiers must come up with two wins in their last four games, and besides this game, they face Michigan and Maryland and Purdue on the road. Kevin Wilson’s job could be on the line.

TCU at Oklahoma St.: The winner should move into the top 4 in the following week’s poll, and Oklahoma State has come out of nowhere to be in this position. The Cowboys host the three other contenders in the league, and at this point, we have to consider them the co-favorite to win the Big 12. The other co-favorite is the team they play Saturday. We believe the winner of this game will emerge as the league champion, but if the league champion loses a game, the destination will most likely be New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl and not the Playoffs.

Cincinnati at Houston: The Cougars can smell that New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid. They have the most advantageous schedule of any of the contending teams for the one guaranteed Group of 5 teams. Cincinnati is out of the NY6 picture, but the Bearcats have an offense capable of matching UH point for point.

Utah St. at New Mexico: Bob Davie has the Lobos close to getting back to a bowl. New Mexico is 4-4 and needs two upsets in their final four games from a group that also includes Boise St., Colorado St., and Air Force. If the Lobos can get an upset in this game, we believe they will get one more. As for Utah St., the Mountain West Mountain Division flag is in their grasp with a previous win over Boise St., but the Aggies must still play at Air Force and cannot afford to slip up here.

Navy at Memphis: Memphis must keep pace with Houston and Toledo in the Group of 5 race. A win here would be considered a quality win, especially if the Tigers can win as convincingly as Notre Dame’s win over the Midshipmen. Navy is basically locked into a Military Bowl bid at this point, but if they beat Memphis and win out, while Houston and Toledo both lose a game ,the Middies could find themselves in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.

LSU at Alabama: This is the top game of the week. How many times in recent history has this game had national championship repercussions? Can Leonard Fournette keep LSU’s offense moving against a Crimson Tide defense that will force the Tigers to throw the ball or face eight men up front? What about Alabama’s offense? It has been Jekyll and Hyde this year when the Tide has the ball. LSU’s run defense might be up to the task to slow the ‘Bama running game. It should be close and lower than average scoring.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
2 Ohio St. 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
3 Baylor 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
4 TCU 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
5 Oklahoma 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
6 LSU 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
7 Clemson 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
8 Stanford 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
9 Notre Dame 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
10 USC 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
11 Florida 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
12 Ole Miss 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
13 Tennessee 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
14 Utah 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
15 North Carolina 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
16 UCLA 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
17 Michigan 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
18 Texas A&M 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
19 Arkansas 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
20 Michigan St. 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
22 Oklahoma St. 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
23 California 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
24 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
25 Georgia 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
26 Arizona St. 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
27 Oregon 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
28 Houston 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
29 Wisconsin 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
30 Auburn 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
31 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
32 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 West Virginia 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
35 Memphis 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
36 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
37 North Carolina St. 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
40 Bowling Green 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
41 Duke 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
42 Missouri 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
43 Louisville 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
44 Pittsburgh 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
45 BYU 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
46 Western Kentucky 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
47 Penn St. 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
48 Nebraska 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
49 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
50 Cincinnati 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
51 Toledo 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
52 South Carolina 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
53 Miami 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
54 Arizona 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
55 Washington St. 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
57 Northwestern 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
58 Texas Tech 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
59 Colorado 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
60 Texas 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
61 Louisiana Tech 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
62 Navy 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
63 Kansas St. 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
64 Illinois 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
65 Kentucky 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
66 Virginia 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Appalachian St. 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
68 Utah St. 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
69 Boston College 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
70 Western Michigan 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
71 Iowa St. 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
72 Purdue 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
73 Vanderbilt 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
74 Air Force 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Northern Illinois 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Indiana 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
79 Marshall 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
80 East Carolina 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
81 South Florida 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
82 Syracuse 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
83 Maryland 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
84 Rutgers 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
85 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
86 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
88 San Jose St. 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
89 Tulsa 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
90 Colorado St. 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
91 Florida International 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
92 Oregon St. 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
93 Connecticut 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
94 Nevada 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
95 Arkansas St. 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
96 Ohio 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
97 New Mexico 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
98 Tulane 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
99 Buffalo 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
100 Massachusetts 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
101 Akron 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
102 UL-Lafayette 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
103 SMU 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
104 Rice 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
105 Hawaii 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
106 Ball St. 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
107 UNLV 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
108 Florida Atlantic 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
109 Troy 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
110 Texas St. 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
111 Fresno St. 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
112 Army 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
113 Wyoming 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
114 UT-San Antonio 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
115 Kent St. 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
116 Central Florida 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
117 UTEP 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
118 South Alabama 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
119 Georgia St. 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
120 Old Dominion 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
121 UL-Monroe 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
122 Idaho 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
123 North Texas 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
124 Miami (O) 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
125 Eastern Michigan 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
126 Kansas 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
127 New Mexico St. 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
128 Charlotte 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Clemson
5 LSU
6 Baylor
7 Oklahoma
8 Michigan St.
9 Notre Dame
10 Utah
11 Iowa
12 Florida
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Michigan
16 Memphis
17 Ole Miss
18 USC
19 Houston
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina
22 Mississippi St.
23 Toledo
24 Wisconsin
25 Texas A&M
26 UCLA
27 Navy
28 Temple
29 BYU
30 Tennessee
31 Northwestern
32 Penn St.
33 California
34 Boise St.
35 Appalachian St.
36 Bowling Green
37 Duke
38 Pittsburgh
39 Oregon
40 Washington
41 Western Kentucky
42 Arkansas
43 Miami (Fla)
44 Georgia
45 Cincinnati
46 Texas Tech
47 Washington St.
48 Louisville
49 Utah St.
50 North Carolina St.
51 Georgia Southern
52 Auburn
53 West Virginia
54 Marshall
55 Louisiana Tech
56 Virginia Tech
57 Arizona St.
58 San Diego St.
59 Western Michigan
60 Central Michigan
61 Kansas St.
62 Air Force
63 Georgia Tech
64 Minnesota
65 Illinois
66 Iowa St.
67 Indiana
68 Northern Illinois
69 Virginia
70 Missouri
71 Texas
72 South Carolina
73 Arizona
74 Kentucky
75 Arkansas St.
76 Southern Miss.
77 Tulsa
78 Connecticut
79 South Florida
80 East Carolina
81 Nebraska
82 Colorado
83 Boston College
84 Syracuse
85 Ohio
86 Purdue
87 Vanderbilt
88 Maryland
89 Rutgers
90 Buffalo
91 MTSU
92 Wake Forest
93 Louisiana-Lafayette
94 Colorado St.
95 San Jose St.
96 Kent St.
97 Rice
98 Akron
99 Nevada
100 South Alabama
101 Oregon St.
102 Troy
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Ball St.
105 UNLV
106 New Mexico
107 Tulane
108 SMU
109 Army
110 Old Dominion
111 Texas St.
112 Fresno St.
113 Massachusetts
114 Idaho
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Hawaii
118 Kansas
119 Louisiana-Monroe
120 Wyoming
121 UTSA
122 UTEP
123 Miami (O)
124 Eastern Michigan
125 North Texas
126 Central Florida
127 Charlotte
128 New Mexico St.

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 4-0 7-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-2 5-3 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
East Carolina 2-3 4-5 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
South Florida 2-2 4-4 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
Connecticut 2-3 4-5 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
Central Florida 0-5 0-9 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 4-0 8-0 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
Memphis 4-0 8-0 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
Navy 4-0 6-1 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
Tulsa 1-3 4-4 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
Tulane 1-4 2-6 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
SMU 0-4 1-7 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
             
AAC Averages     95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-0 8-0 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
Florida St. 5-1 7-1 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 1-3 5-3 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
Louisville 3-2 4-4 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
Boston College 0-6 3-6 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-3 3-5 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 4-0 7-1 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Duke 3-1 6-2 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-2 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
Miami 2-2 5-3 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
Virginia 2-2 3-5 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 4-0 7-0 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
TCU 5-0 8-0 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
Oklahoma St. 5-0 8-0 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
West Virginia 0-4 3-4 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
Texas Tech 2-4 5-4 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
Texas 2-3 3-5 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
Kansas St. 0-4 3-4 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
Iowa St. 2-3 3-5 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
Kansas 0-5 0-8 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 8-0 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
Michigan 3-1 6-2 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
Michigan St. 4-0 8-0 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
Penn St. 4-1 7-2 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
Indiana 0-4 4-4 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
Maryland 0-4 2-6 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
Rutgers 1-4 3-5 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-1 7-2 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
Iowa 4-0 8-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 1-4 3-6 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
Minnesota 1-3 4-4 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
Illinois 1-3 4-4 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
Purdue 1-3 2-6 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 5-0 7-2 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
Marshall 5-0 8-1 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
Florida International 2-3 4-5 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
Florida Atlantic 2-3 2-6 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
Old Dominion 1-3 3-5 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
Charlotte 0-5 2-6 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 4-1 6-3 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-2 4-4 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
UT-San Antonio 1-3 1-7 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
UTEP 1-3 3-5 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
North Texas 1-4 1-7 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
BYU   6-2 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
Army   2-6 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 4-0 6-2 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
Ohio 2-2 5-3 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
Buffalo 2-2 4-4 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
Massachusetts 0-4 1-7 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
Akron 1-3 3-5 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
Kent St. 2-2 3-5 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
Miami (O) 0-5 1-8 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-0 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
Western Michigan 4-0 5-3 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
Northern Illinois 3-1 5-3 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-3 3-6 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
Eastern Michigan 0-5 1-8 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-1 5-3 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
Air Force 4-1 5-3 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
Colorado St. 1-3 3-5 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
New Mexico 2-2 4-4 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
Wyoming 1-4 1-8 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-4 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
Nevada 2-2 4-4 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
Hawaii 0-5 2-7 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
UNLV 1-3 2-6 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
Fresno St. 1-4 2-6 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 6-0 7-1 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
California 2-3 5-3 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
Oregon 3-2 5-3 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
Washington 2-3 4-4 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
Washington St. 3-2 5-3 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
Oregon St. 0-5 2-6 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 3-2 5-3 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
Utah 4-1 7-1 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
UCLA 3-2 6-2 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
Arizona 2-4 5-4 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
Colorado 1-4 4-5 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 5-1 7-1 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
Tennessee 2-3 4-4 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
Georgia 3-3 5-3 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
Missouri 1-4 4-4 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
South Carolina 1-5 3-5 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
Kentucky 2-4 4-4 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
Vanderbilt 1-3 3-5 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
LSU 4-0 7-0 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
Ole Miss 4-1 7-2 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
Texas A&M 3-2 6-2 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
Arkansas 2-2 4-4 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
Mississippi St. 2-2 6-2 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
Auburn 1-4 4-4 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-0 7-1 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-3 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-4 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
Troy 1-3 2-6 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
Texas St. 1-2 2-5 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
South Alabama 1-2 3-4 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
Georgia St. 1-2 2-5 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
UL-Monroe 0-4 1-7 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
Idaho 2-3 3-5 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
New Mexico St. 1-3 1-7 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
4 ACC 107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
7 AAC 95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 LSU
3 Clemson
4 Baylor

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Memphis      
2 Houston      
3 Toleo      
4 Temple      
5 Navy  

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Iowa St.  
9 Purdue  
8 Vanderbilt  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Indiana  
5 Syracuse  
4 Maryland  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.6
2 Dartmouth 92.8
3 Harvard 92.4
4 Chattanooga 91.3
5 Illinois St. 91.1
6 North Dakota St. 91.0
7 McNeese St. 90.7
8 Dayton 90.6
9 Richmond 90.3
10 Charleston Southern 89.4

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 3        
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.3 9.4 10.1
         
Wednesday, November 4        
Bowling Green Ohio 21.2 21.7 22.4
         
Thursday, November 5        
Kent St. Buffalo -1.2 -5.0 -2.6
Western Michigan Ball St. 19.8 18.1 20.0
Appalachian St. Arkansas St. 13.0 15.4 14.4
Kansas St. Baylor -20.0 -26.6 -21.5
Missouri Mississippi St. -3.8 -4.1 -5.2
Fresno St. Nevada -5.1 -5.1 -6.5
         
Friday, November 6        
SMU Temple -22.2 -20.4 -23.3
UTEP Rice -4.2 -5.0 -4.8
San Jose St. BYU -12.8 -9.1 -13.8
         
Saturday, November 7        
Massachusetts Akron 4.1 0.8 3.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 27.6 24.6 28.4
Tulsa Central Florida 13.9 15.2 14.6
Northwestern Penn St. 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Purdue Illinois -0.4 0.8 -0.4
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 25.0 25.6 26.0
West Virginia Texas Tech 9.4 12.2 9.2
North Carolina Duke 10.9 10.8 10.3
Florida Vanderbilt 24.6 25.4 25.2
Georgia Kentucky 16.6 13.4 16.7
Pittsburgh Notre Dame -12.9 -9.1 -12.3
Louisville Syracuse 16.0 15.7 15.9
Boston College North Carolina St. -7.0 -5.2 -7.2
Colorado Stanford -13.6 -17.0 -14.9
Georgia St. Louisiana-Lafayette -4.2 -7.5 -4.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan 3.4 1.3 4.3
South Alabama Idaho 5.1 5.7 4.7
Wyoming Colorado St. -9.6 -6.0 -9.2
Miami (Fla) Virginia 4.9 7.5 6.3
Clemson Florida St. 11.5 12.0 12.9
Ole Miss Arkansas 7.7 8.2 6.8
Air Force Army 22.1 17.1 20.2
Washington St. Arizona St. -7.7 -6.4 -6.9
Indiana Iowa -11.5 -13.7 -12.8
Maryland Wisconsin -15.7 -17.6 -15.7
Michigan Rutgers 26.4 26.3 27.5
Oklahoma St. TCU -11.3 -5.2 -11.5
Louisiana Tech North Texas 32.6 27.2 33.0
Middle Tennessee Marshall 0.7 -1.6 -0.1
Houston Cincinnati 8.2 13.9 9.6
Troy Louisiana-Monroe 6.5 9.0 8.0
New Mexico Utah St. -9.1 -8.8 -10.9
Texas St. New Mexico St. 13.6 15.5 12.9
Tulane Connecticut -2.0 -2.7 -1.6
Tennessee South Carolina 17.2 16.6 18.9
Oregon St. UCLA -24.7 -22.0 -24.7
UNLV Hawaii 3.2 3.0 4.1
Memphis Navy 13.0 10.4 13.2
UTSA Old Dominion 7.0 5.1 8.8
Oklahoma Iowa St. 29.5 29.5 29.5
Nebraska Michigan St. -5.8 -4.4 -6.7
Washington Utah -8.4 -5.5 -7.0
Texas A&M Auburn 7.0 6.3 6.2
East Carolina South Florida 3.9 1.5 3.9
Alabama LSU 7.6 8.2 6.8
Texas Kansas 31.1 34.2 33.0
Ohio St. Minnesota 27.3 23.6 28.8
Oregon California 2.8 1.4 2.7
USC Arizona 19.1 21.2 20.7

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA Colorado St. vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Bowling Green
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Washington *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Texas St. * vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers ^
Independence SEC ACC Akron * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Miami (Fla) * vs. California
Military ACC AAC North Carolina St. vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville vs. Buffalo *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Central Michigan * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC East Carolina vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Florida St. vs. Georgia
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton Playoff Playoff Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Utah vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. vs. Clemson
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Rutgers qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams
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