The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 26, 2015

College Football Preview: October 27-31, 2015

Conference Races Enter Crunch Time
There is just one more week of games until the autumn winds of November descend on the football world. At this point, there are very few teams that can be considered locks for winning a conference championship. All of the Power 5 Conference races are very much undecided at this point, and two of the Group of 5 Conferences still contend for that one guaranteed New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid.

Here is our conference by conference breakdown this week.

American Athletic
At this point of the season, a legitimate argument could be made that this league should be included in what would become the Power 6 Conferences. Houston, Memphis, and Temple are still undefeated, Temple owns a win over Penn State. Houston won at Louisville, and Memphis has wins over Ole Miss and at Bowling Green, while Navy is once beaten at Notre Dame. South Florida, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and East Carolina give this league eight quality teams.
If an AAC team runs the table, that team will be headed to the Fiesta Bowl, unless something really odd happens with the Power 6 teams all losing twice. Then, it is possible that a Memphis could sneak into the playoffs with a 13-0 record, if Ole Miss were to win the SEC Championship.

Bowl Guarantees: 7
Estimated Bowl Eigible: 8
If an AAC team secures a New Year’s 6 Bowl, then there will be 8 spots for 8 teams.

Atlantic Coast
The good news is that Clemson chose to play their best game on national television Saturday. The bad news is that Florida State lost, making a CU win over FSU not as sexy as it could have been. However, if Clemson runs the table, there is no way they will miss out on a playoff spot with a win over Notre Dame. The Tigers are in a trap situation with their game this week at North Carolina State. The Wolf Pack catch the Tigers possibly looking ahead to the big game with FSU next week, and they are talented enough to surprise.

Don’t count out the Seminoles just yet. Florida State still controls their own destiny in the ACC Atlantic Division, and a win over Clemson would put them back on top.

In the Coastal Division, it is a three-team race, and it could end in a three-way tie. Pittsburgh hosts North Carolina this week, but the Panthers must play at Duke on November 14, after playing Notre Dame the week before. North Carolina hosts Duke on November 7, so the next three weeks will decide this division or force a tiebreaker.

Bowl Guarantees: 9
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 9 (includes Notre Dame)

Big 12
Baylor suffered a catastrophic loss when the Bears lost starting quarterback Seth Russell for the season due to broken bones in his neck. True freshman Jarrett Stidham will have to face the meat of the schedule, as BU still must play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU in successive weeks, the latter two on the road.

TCU’s defense is not championship quality, and the Horned Frogs still must play at both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State prior to hosting Baylor. We believe TCU will lose to at least one of the Oklahoma teams.

Oklahoma State joins Iowa as an undefeated team that is not getting much respect. With events overshadowing the game Saturday, the Cowboys did not get much credit for improving to 7-0. OSU has the easiest schedule of the contenders, with TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma all coming to Stillwater. We cannot call for the Cowboys to run the table, but of the three undfeated teams, they have the best shot.

Oklahoma is the spoiler here. The Sooners finish at Baylor, home against TCU, and at Oklahoma State, and they might lose all three, but we believe they will upset one of the three.

Because Kansas should finish 0-9 in the league, and Iowa State 1-8, the other teams in the league should all sneak into bowl eligibility.

Bowl Guarantees: 8
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 7
Two league teams are expected to earn New Year’s 6 Bowl bids, so there will be 8 spots for 8 teams.

Big Ten
After several somewhat close calls for Ohio State, the Buckeyes appear to be putting it all together in time for the stretch run. Putting J. T. Barrett in control of the offense seems to have given the Buckeyes the shot in the arm they need to dominate once again.

Michigan State and Michigan still hold hopes of winning the East Division title. However, Michigan State’s training tables look like MASH units with too many injuries, and Michigan has to get over that awful finish two weeks ago.

In the West, Iowa looks like a team with an outstanding chance to run the table and enter the Big Ten Championship game at 12-0. With Nebraska down and most likely headed to a losing record, a road game at Indiana is the only other possible bump in the road. The Hawkeyes already own wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

Bowl Guarantees: 9
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 9

Conference USA
Western Kentucky looks like the team to beat in the league this year, but the Hilltoppers have three key challengers. Marshall would love to ruin WKU’s championship hopes, after the Thundering Herd’s undefeated season came crashing down in game 12 due to the Hilltoppers. A road game against Florida International one week prior to the Marshall game could also be a tricky one.

In the West, the title should be decided this Saturday when Louisiana Tech visits Rice. Southern Mississippi still has a shot, but the Golden Eagles must face the other two contenders on the road.

Bowl Guarantees: 7
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 8
Old Dominion looks like a 6-6 team that will receive an at-large bowl invitation. As of today, we only see 80 teams reaching bowl eligibility, so even a 6-6 Monarchs team will go bowling.

Independents
Notre Dame is really an ACC team playing just six conference games instead of eight and having no opportunity to play in the conference championship game. The Irish will get the top ACC spot after Clemson, if CU makes the playoffs.

BYU is already bowl eligible, and there are two bowls that have agreements with the Cougars. Whichever bowl BYU gets, the Mountain West Conference takes the other bowl.

Army has a bowl agreement to the Poinsettia bowl, but the Black Knights will not be bowl eligible this year.

Mid-American
Bowling Green has become scary in recent weeks. Their 48-0 shellacking of Kent State on the road on Saturday is a lot more impressive than it looks, as the Golden Flashes’ defense had held Minnesota to just 10 points. BGU now has a two-game lead over the remaining East Division contenders and appear to have locked up a spot in the MAC Championship Game.

Toledo is still undefeated with wins at Arkansas and at home against Iowa State. However, the Rockets are far from a lock to win the division title. UT’s four remaining games are all against teams capable of beating them. They close with Northern Illinois, Central Michigan on the road, Bowling Green on the road, and Western Michigan. WMU is still undefeated in conference play, and the Broncos have a slightly easier schedule prior to the meeting with UT on Black Friday.

Bowl Guarantees: 5
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 6
Ohio U looks like the odd team out, and the Bobcats will get an at-large bid to a nice warm locale, unless they get exiled to Boise, Idaho.

Mountain West
Boise State is not in control of their own destiny to win the Mountain Division this year. The loss to Utah State put the Aggies in the driver’s seat, but USU still has a couple landmines in their way, namely at San Diego State this week and at Air Force.

Air Force and Colorado State have a little more work to do to get to six wins, but their schedules are in their favor, while New Mexico needs to finish 2-2 to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. The Lobos have to finish with Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State, and Air Force, so it looks like a near miss for Coach Bob Davie.

In the West Division, it is San Diego State’s race to lose. The Aztecs have a two-game lead in the loss column with a win over San Jose State. Nevada is on the edge of whether or not they will reach bowl eligibility, while Fresno State is out of the picture this year. UNLV is 2-5 with Boise State and San Diego State still to play, so it looks like just two West Division teams will be bowl eligible.

Bowl Guarantees: 6
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 6

Pac-12
Utah’s playoff hopes went bye-bye at the Coliseum Saturday night at the Coliseum. The Utes still have a one-game lead over USC, UCLA, and Arizona State, but that lead is not safe. Their remaining schedule includes road games at Washington and Arizona and a home game with UCLA. Another loss is not just possible, it is highly probable.

Before the season began, it was also highly probable that Stanford would be competing with one rival for the North Division title at this point in the season. However, that other team is not Oregon. Who could have imagined that the team the Cardinal would have to beat to secure the division flag would be Washington State?

Yes, the Pirate (not PiRate), Mike Leach, has the Cougars poised to play for first place in the Pac-12 North this week. The game is in Pullman, so WSU will have a much better chance at pulling off the upset and closing the book on this league’s chances to secure a playoff spot. If Stanford wins, then the Cardinal could win out and earn a playoff bid.

Bowl Guarantees: 7
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 9
We expect Arizona and California to be the odd teams out, but the Wildcats and Bears will be the first two choices of the bowls looking for at-large teams.

Southeastern
The SEC is in a precarious position to miss out on the playoffs if Ole Miss or Florida win the conference championship and Alabama loses another game this year. It might be the best thing for those wanting an 8-team playoff, because the winner of the toughest league must be one of the best teams in the land.

Ole Miss is by no means in the driver’s seat in the West. The Rebels still must face LSU and Mississippi State. Oh, and LSU is only 7-0 with the Heisman Trophy favorite in the backfield.

LSU has a little problem, The Tigers do not have a competent passing game, something that has brought prior championship attempts crashing to the ground, namely at the hand of their nemesis. Alabama has a strong enough defense to stack the box to stop Leonard Fournette and force Tiger quarterback Brandon Harris to beat the Tide with his arm. It didn’t work in both games against Alabama during that famous 2011 season.

At the bottom of the league, Arkansas and Auburn are still scratching and clawing their way to get to six wins. We say both find a way to get it done, and that means all seven West teams will make it to a bowl.

The East Division is just as competitive, but it is competitive through mediocrity and not strength. Florida leads with a 4-1 league mark, but they are missing the quarterback that went 4-0 and must get by with the quarterback that is 0-1. The Gators play Georgia in Jacksonville this week, and the Bulldogs are limping at this moment having lost two games in a row since Nick Chubb went down.

Should Georgia win the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party game this week, it throws the East Race wide open. The Bulldogs could easily lose to Kentuky or Auburn or both, and the Gators could limp home with a loss to South Carolina or even Vanderbilt.

Tennessee and Kentucky face off in Lexington this week, and the winner of that game could be back in the race if Georgia beats Florida. Vanderbilt is just 1-3, after Coach Derek Mason finally won an SEC game, and even the Commodores are not completely out of the East Division race. If Florida starts to fold and does lose to Georgia, Vanderbilt could catch the Gators licking their wounds like in 2013.

If Florida wins this week, then all excitement in this division is gone.

Bowl Guarantees: 10
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 11
As of today, we have Alabama slotted to win out and earn a playoff spot, and we have Florida and LSU picked to play in New Year’s 6 bowls. That would leave just 8 bowl eligible teams for the remaining 9 bowls, opening a spot for an at-large team.

Sunbelt
This race appears to be over after Appalachian State clobbered Georgia Southern. The Mountaineers should win out to finish 8-0 in the league and 11-1 overall, their only loss at Clemson.

Georgia Southern and Arkansas State have no worries, as these two will win 8 or 9 games. UL-Lafayette and South Alabama have work to do to make it to 6-6, but easy schedules should allow both to get to .500 and earn a 13th game. Because both schools are local favorites for bowl games they could take a spot from either Georgia Southern or Arkansas State. Or, an 11-1 Appalachain State team could be allowed to become the at-large team in a more prestigious bowl.

Bowl Guarantees: 4
Estimated Bowl Eligible: 5

 

Complete Bowl Projections Follow Below

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 128.7 126.3 128.3 127.8
2 Ohio St. 128.8 123.4 129.6 127.3
3 Baylor 128.2 124.7 128.7 127.2
4 TCU 128.3 119.4 128.8 125.5
5 Oklahoma 125.7 122.2 125.9 124.6
6 LSU 124.1 121.3 124.5 123.3
7 Stanford 123.6 122.2 123.6 123.1
8 Clemson 121.8 122.8 122.3 122.3
9 Notre Dame 123.1 119.8 123.1 122.0
10 USC 122.3 118.7 122.6 121.2
11 Utah 123.2 117.7 122.4 121.1
12 Ole Miss 122.1 116.8 120.0 119.6
13 UCLA 121.5 115.5 119.9 119.0
14 Tennessee 119.9 115.5 119.6 118.3
15 Florida 118.9 115.9 119.1 118.0
16 Michigan 119.1 115.8 118.9 117.9
17 North Carolina 117.2 117.3 116.9 117.1
18 Georgia 119.8 112.5 118.6 117.0
19 Texas A&M 118.5 115.4 116.9 116.9
20 Arkansas 117.9 112.4 116.9 115.7
21 Michigan St. 116.4 113.2 116.1 115.2
22 Mississippi St. 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
23 California 116.3 111.0 115.8 114.4
24 Arizona St. 116.2 111.2 115.3 114.2
25 Florida St. 114.0 114.3 113.1 113.8
26 Oklahoma St. 114.1 111.9 114.4 113.5
27 Georgia Tech 114.6 112.4 113.4 113.5
28 Oregon 115.8 108.9 115.0 113.2
29 Auburn 114.1 111.8 113.3 113.1
30 West Virginia 114.7 109.4 114.0 112.7
31 Iowa 110.8 113.4 111.7 112.0
32 Houston 107.8 115.4 110.6 111.3
33 Wisconsin 111.3 111.7 110.8 111.3
34 Boise St. 112.3 108.3 111.9 110.8
35 Memphis 110.0 110.7 111.3 110.7
36 North Carolina St. 110.1 111.7 109.1 110.3
37 Duke 109.1 109.7 110.0 109.6
38 Temple 108.5 110.8 109.2 109.5
39 Virginia Tech 109.6 108.5 109.3 109.1
40 Bowling Green 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
41 Nebraska 109.6 107.8 108.7 108.7
42 Louisville 107.9 110.3 107.5 108.6
43 Arizona 110.6 104.9 109.4 108.3
44 Pittsburgh 107.0 107.9 107.8 107.6
45 Missouri 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
46 Texas 108.0 105.1 108.3 107.1
47 Western Kentucky 106.6 106.4 108.1 107.0
48 BYU 107.0 106.2 107.9 107.0
49 Washington 107.3 104.7 107.9 106.6
50 Toledo 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
51 South Carolina 107.0 103.3 105.1 105.1
52 Illinois 105.7 103.6 104.6 104.6
53 Texas Tech 107.6 98.9 107.1 104.5
54 Cincinnati 103.9 104.5 104.9 104.4
55 San Diego St. 101.8 106.6 103.4 103.9
56 Northwestern 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
57 Penn St. 103.6 104.1 103.5 103.7
58 Appalachian St. 101.9 105.1 104.1 103.7
59 Miami 103.1 103.5 103.7 103.4
60 Minnesota 104.1 102.6 103.2 103.3
61 Kentucky 104.8 101.2 103.6 103.2
62 Washington St. 104.2 99.9 103.7 102.6
63 Colorado 104.0 98.8 102.2 101.7
64 Kansas St. 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
65 Louisiana Tech 102.0 100.3 102.4 101.6
66 Navy 100.1 103.1 100.6 101.3
67 Boston College 100.4 104.4 99.1 101.3
68 Vanderbilt 102.3 97.5 102.0 100.6
69 Utah St. 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.0
70 Western Michigan 99.3 99.6 100.4 99.8
71 Virginia 100.3 98.1 99.7 99.4
72 East Carolina 96.3 99.7 97.3 97.8
73 Purdue 97.9 97.2 96.4 97.2
74 Northern Illinois 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
75 Georgia Southern 95.4 97.7 96.2 96.4
76 Indiana 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
77 Marshall 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
78 Iowa St. 97.1 93.2 96.8 95.7
79 Rutgers 97.0 93.9 95.5 95.5
80 Wake Forest 94.7 98.0 93.7 95.5
81 South Florida 92.7 99.1 93.6 95.1
82 Air Force 93.8 97.8 93.3 95.0
83 Syracuse 94.0 97.1 93.6 94.9
84 Florida International 92.2 95.0 93.5 93.6
85 Maryland 94.4 92.4 93.6 93.5
86 Colorado St. 93.9 92.1 92.6 92.9
87 Middle Tennessee 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
88 Central Michigan 90.4 94.3 92.5 92.4
89 Southern Mississippi 91.5 93.3 92.1 92.3
90 San Jose St. 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
91 Tulsa 89.8 93.9 90.6 91.4
92 Arkansas St. 89.2 90.2 90.3 89.9
93 Nevada 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
94 Oregon St. 91.1 87.8 89.3 89.4
95 Ohio 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
96 New Mexico 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
97 Connecticut 85.7 90.6 86.4 87.6
98 Hawaii 86.9 89.1 86.6 87.5
99 Massachusetts 85.7 88.6 86.8 87.0
100 Buffalo 83.2 89.8 85.4 86.1
101 Tulane 85.4 87.9 84.4 85.9
102 Akron 83.3 89.6 84.7 85.9
103 Rice 83.8 88.2 84.4 85.5
104 SMU 83.9 88.0 83.7 85.2
105 UL-Lafayette 83.7 87.1 84.3 85.0
106 UNLV 82.7 85.3 83.4 83.8
107 Ball St. 81.6 83.7 82.2 82.5
108 Central Florida 80.8 84.3 81.4 82.2
109 Texas St. 80.9 84.8 80.5 82.1
110 Wyoming 81.1 83.6 80.5 81.7
111 UT-San Antonio 80.6 83.0 81.6 81.7
112 Fresno St. 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
113 Army 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
114 Florida Atlantic 79.7 82.6 79.5 80.6
115 Kent St. 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
116 Troy 77.9 79.3 79.4 78.9
117 UTEP 76.8 79.6 76.6 77.7
118 South Alabama 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
119 Georgia St. 76.8 76.4 77.0 76.7
120 Old Dominion 75.1 79.8 73.9 76.3
121 UL-Monroe 76.6 75.2 76.5 76.1
122 Idaho 73.3 79.2 74.8 75.8
123 Eastern Michigan 72.4 79.4 71.9 74.6
124 Miami (O) 73.1 77.3 73.2 74.5
125 Kansas 77.3 70.9 75.2 74.5
126 North Texas 72.4 77.3 72.6 74.1
127 New Mexico St. 68.6 69.6 68.6 68.9
128 Charlotte 68.1 70.1 67.9 68.7

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 LSU
5 Clemson
6 Baylor
7 Oklahoma
8 Michigan St.
9 Utah
10 Iowa
11 Stanford
12 Michigan
13 Florida
14 Notre Dame
15 Memphis
16 Florida St.
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Toledo
19 Houston
20 Mississippi St.
21 Duke
22 Pittsburgh
23 Ole Miss
24 BYU
25 California
26 USC
27 UCLA
28 Texas A&M
29 North Carolina
30 Temple
31 Navy
32 Wisconsin
33 Northwestern
34 Georgia
35 Boise St.
36 Tennessee
37 Bowling Green
38 Appalachian St.
39 Oregon
40 Penn St.
41 Texas
42 Texas Tech
43 Arkansas
44 West Virginia
45 Western Kentucky
46 Auburn
47 Marshall
48 Washington St.
49 Utah St.
50 Arizona St.
51 Georgia Tech
52 North Carolina St.
53 Illinois
54 Louisville
55 Miami (Fla.)
56 Washington
57 Arizona
58 East Carolina
59 Western Michigan
60 Cincinnati
61 Nebraska
62 South Carolina
63 Georgia Southern
64 Northern Illinois
65 Kentucky
66 South Florida
67 Kansas St.
68 Missouri
69 Central Michigan
70 Louisiana Tech
71 San Diego St.
72 Arkansas St.
73 Minnesota
74 Southern Miss.
75 Virginia Tech
76 Indiana
77 Air Force
78 Boston College
79 Vanderbilt
80 Iowa St.
81 Virginia
82 Ohio
83 Syracuse
84 Rutgers
85 Colorado
86 Rice
87 Maryland
88 Tulsa
89 Colorado St.
90 San Jose St.
91 Wake Forest
92 Middle Tennessee
93 Kent St.
94 Oregon St.
95 Akron
96 Connecticut
97 Florida Int’l
98 Purdue
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico
101 Nevada
102 South Alabama
103 UNLV
104 Louisiana-Lafayette
105 Ball St.
106 Texas St.
107 Old Dominion
108 SMU
109 Army
110 Idaho
111 Tulane
112 Hawaii
113 Massachusetts
114 Troy
115 Fresno St.
116 Louisiana-Monroe
117 Kansas
118 Georgia St.
119 Wyoming
120 UT-San Antonio
121 Florida Atlantic
122 UTEP
123 Central Florida
124 Miami (O)
125 Eastern Michigan
126 Charlotte
127 North Texas
128 New Mexico St.

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 4-0 7-0 108.5 110.8 109.2 109.5
Cincinnati 1-2 4-3 103.9 104.5 104.9 104.4
East Carolina 2-2 4-4 96.3 99.7 97.3 97.8
South Florida 2-1 4-3 92.7 99.1 93.6 95.1
Connecticut 1-3 3-5 85.7 90.6 86.4 87.6
Central Florida 0-4 0-8 80.8 84.3 81.4 82.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 4-0 7-0 107.8 115.4 110.6 111.3
Memphis 3-0 7-0 110.0 110.7 111.3 110.7
Navy 3-0 5-1 100.1 103.1 100.6 101.3
Tulsa 0-3 3-4 89.8 93.9 90.6 91.4
Tulane 1-3 2-5 85.4 87.9 84.4 85.9
SMU 0-3 1-6 83.9 88.0 83.7 85.2
             
AAC Averages     95.4 99.0 96.2 96.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-0 7-0 121.8 122.8 122.3 122.3
Florida St. 4-1 6-1 114.0 114.3 113.1 113.8
North Carolina St. 1-2 5-2 110.1 111.7 109.1 110.3
Louisville 2-2 3-4 107.9 110.3 107.5 108.6
Boston College 0-5 3-5 100.4 104.4 99.1 101.3
Wake Forest 1-4 3-5 94.7 98.0 93.7 95.5
Syracuse 1-2 3-4 94.0 97.1 93.6 94.9
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 3-0 6-1 117.2 117.3 116.9 117.1
Georgia Tech 1-4 3-5 114.6 112.4 113.4 113.5
Duke 3-0 6-1 109.1 109.7 110.0 109.6
Virginia Tech 1-3 3-5 109.6 108.5 109.3 109.1
Pittsburgh 4-0 6-1 107.0 107.9 107.8 107.6
Miami 1-2 4-3 103.1 103.5 103.7 103.4
Virginia 1-2 2-5 100.3 98.1 99.7 99.4
             
ACC Averages     107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 4-0 7-0 128.2 124.7 128.7 127.2
TCU 4-0 7-0 128.3 119.4 128.8 125.5
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 125.7 122.2 125.9 124.6
Oklahoma St. 4-0 7-0 114.1 111.9 114.4 113.5
West Virginia 0-3 3-3 114.7 109.4 114.0 112.7
Texas 2-2 3-4 108.0 105.1 108.3 107.1
Texas Tech 2-3 5-3 107.6 98.9 107.1 104.5
Kansas St. 0-4 3-4 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
Iowa St. 1-3 2-5 97.1 93.2 96.8 95.7
Kansas 0-4 0-7 77.3 70.9 75.2 74.5
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 8-0 128.8 123.4 129.6 127.3
Michigan 2-1 5-2 119.1 115.8 118.9 117.9
Michigan St. 4-0 8-0 116.4 113.2 116.1 115.2
Penn St. 3-1 6-2 103.6 104.1 103.5 103.7
Indiana 0-4 4-4 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
Rutgers 1-3 3-4 97.0 93.9 95.5 95.5
Maryland 0-3 2-5 94.4 92.4 93.6 93.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 3-0 7-0 110.8 113.4 111.7 112.0
Wisconsin 3-1 6-2 111.3 111.7 110.8 111.3
Nebraska 1-3 3-5 109.6 107.8 108.7 108.7
Illinois 1-2 4-3 105.7 103.6 104.6 104.6
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
Minnesota 1-2 4-3 104.1 102.6 103.2 103.3
Purdue 0-3 1-6 97.9 97.2 96.4 97.2
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 4-0 6-2 106.6 106.4 108.1 107.0
Marshall 4-0 7-1 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
Florida International 2-2 4-4 92.2 95.0 93.5 93.6
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
Florida Atlantic 1-3 1-6 79.7 82.6 79.5 80.6
Old Dominion 1-2 3-4 75.1 79.8 73.9 76.3
Charlotte 0-4 2-5 68.1 70.1 67.9 68.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 3-1 5-3 102.0 100.3 102.4 101.6
Southern Mississippi 3-1 5-3 91.5 93.3 92.1 92.3
Rice 2-1 4-3 83.8 88.2 84.4 85.5
UT-San Antonio 1-2 1-6 80.6 83.0 81.6 81.7
UTEP 1-2 3-4 76.8 79.6 76.6 77.7
North Texas 0-4 0-7 72.4 77.3 72.6 74.1
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 123.1 119.8 123.1 122.0
BYU   6-2 107.0 106.2 107.9 107.0
Army   2-6 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.6 104.2 103.4 103.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 4-0 6-2 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
Ohio 2-2 5-3 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
Massachusetts 0-3 1-6 85.7 88.6 86.8 87.0
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 83.2 89.8 85.4 86.1
Akron 1-2 3-4 83.3 89.6 84.7 85.9
Kent St. 2-2 3-5 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
Miami (O) 0-4 1-7 73.1 77.3 73.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-0 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
Western Michigan 3-0 4-3 99.3 99.6 100.4 99.8
Northern Illinois 3-1 5-3 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
Central Michigan 3-1 4-4 90.4 94.3 92.5 92.4
Ball St. 1-3 2-6 81.6 83.7 82.2 82.5
Eastern Michigan 0-4 1-7 72.4 79.4 71.9 74.6
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 5-0 6-1 123.6 122.2 123.6 123.1
California 2-2 5-2 116.3 111.0 115.8 114.4
Oregon 2-2 4-3 115.8 108.9 115.0 113.2
Washington 1-3 3-4 107.3 104.7 107.9 106.6
Washington St. 3-1 5-2 104.2 99.9 103.7 102.6
Oregon St. 0-4 2-5 91.1 87.8 89.3 89.4
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 2-2 4-3 122.3 118.7 122.6 121.2
Utah 3-1 6-1 123.2 117.7 122.4 121.1
UCLA 2-2 5-2 121.5 115.5 119.9 119.0
Arizona St. 2-2 4-3 116.2 111.2 115.3 114.2
Arizona 2-3 5-3 110.6 104.9 109.4 108.3
Colorado 1-3 4-4 104.0 98.8 102.2 101.7
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 3-1 6-2 112.3 108.3 111.9 110.8
Utah St. 3-1 4-3 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.0
Air Force 3-1 4-3 93.8 97.8 93.3 95.0
Colorado St. 1-2 3-4 93.9 92.1 92.6 92.9
New Mexico 2-2 4-4 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
Wyoming 1-3 1-7 81.1 83.6 80.5 81.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-0 5-3 101.8 106.6 103.4 103.9
San Jose St. 3-2 4-4 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
Nevada 2-2 4-4 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
Hawaii 0-4 2-6 86.9 89.1 86.6 87.5
UNLV 1-2 2-5 82.7 85.3 83.4 83.8
Fresno St. 1-4 2-6 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 1-3 3-4 119.9 115.5 119.6 118.3
Florida 4-1 6-1 118.9 115.9 119.1 118.0
Georgia 3-2 5-2 119.8 112.5 118.6 117.0
Missouri 1-4 4-4 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
South Carolina 1-4 3-4 107.0 103.3 105.1 105.1
Kentucky 2-3 4-3 104.8 101.2 103.6 103.2
Vanderbilt 1-3 3-4 102.3 97.5 102.0 100.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.7 126.3 128.3 127.8
LSU 4-0 7-0 124.1 121.3 124.5 123.3
Ole Miss 3-1 6-2 122.1 116.8 120.0 119.6
Texas A&M 2-2 5-2 118.5 115.4 116.9 116.9
Arkansas 2-2 3-4 117.9 112.4 116.9 115.7
Mississippi St. 2-2 6-2 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
Auburn 1-3 4-3 114.1 111.8 113.3 113.1
             
SEC Averages     115.9 112.0 115.2 114.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 3-0 6-1 101.9 105.1 104.1 103.7
Georgia Southern 3-1 5-2 95.4 97.7 96.2 96.4
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-3 89.2 90.2 90.3 89.9
UL-Lafayette 1-1 2-4 83.7 87.1 84.3 85.0
Texas St. 1-1 2-4 80.9 84.8 80.5 82.1
Troy 1-2 2-5 77.9 79.3 79.4 78.9
South Alabama 1-2 3-4 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
Georgia St. 1-1 2-4 76.8 76.4 77.0 76.7
UL-Monroe 0-3 1-6 76.6 75.2 76.5 76.1
Idaho 2-2 3-4 73.3 79.2 74.8 75.8
New Mexico St. 0-3 0-7 68.6 69.6 68.6 68.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.9 112.0 115.2 114.4
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
4 ACC 107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.6 104.2 103.4 103.4
7 AAC 95.4 99.0 96.2 96.9
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 LSU
3 Clemson
4 Baylor

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Memphis      
2 Houston      
3 Temple      
4 Toledo      
5 Navy      

 

 Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team
10 Virginia
9 Purdue
8 Indiana
7 Iowa St.
6 Rutgers
5 Wake Forest
4 Syracuse
3 Maryland
2 Oregon St.
1 Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Harvard 96.2
2 Jacksonville St. 96.1
3 Coastal Carolina 91.2
4 North Dakota St. 91.2
5 Illinois St. 90.8
6 Dartmouth 89.8
7 McNeese St. 89.6
8 Richmond 89.4
9 Dayton 89.2
10 James Madison 89.1

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, October 22        
Pittsburgh North Carolina -7.2 -6.4 -6.1
TCU West Virginia 16.6 13.0 17.8
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -24.9 -18.2 -26.5
Miami (O) Buffalo -7.6 -10.0 -9.7
Georgia Southern Texas St. 17.5 15.9 18.7
Arizona St. Oregon 3.4 5.3 3.3
         
Friday, October 23        
Wake Forest Louisville -10.7 -9.8 -11.3
Connecticut East Carolina -8.1 -6.6 -8.4
Rice Louisiana Tech -15.7 -9.6 -15.5
Utah St. Wyoming 21.7 19.4 22.6
         
Saturday, October 24        
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -29.0 -24.1 -31.7
Cincinnati Central Florida 26.1 23.2 26.5
Navy South Florida 10.4 7.0 10.0
Penn St. Illinois 0.9 3.5 1.9
Purdue Nebraska -9.2 -8.1 -9.8
Wisconsin Rutgers 17.3 20.8 18.3
Auburn Ole Miss -5.0 -2.0 -3.7
Texas A&M South Carolina 14.5 15.1 14.8
Florida St. Syracuse 23.0 20.2 22.5
Boston College Virginia Tech -6.2 -1.1 -7.2
Ball St. Massachusetts -1.6 -2.4 -2.1
Akron Central Michigan -4.6 -2.2 -5.3
Southern Miss. UTEP 17.2 16.2 18.0
Virginia Georgia Tech -11.3 -11.3 -10.7
California USC -3.0 -4.7 -3.8
UCLA Colorado 20.5 19.7 20.7
North Carolina St. Clemson -8.7 -8.1 -10.2
Florida (N) Georgia -0.9 3.4 0.5
Charlotte Marshall -25.4 -24.5 -25.9
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. -11.5 -11.4 -13.0
Kansas Oklahoma -45.4 -48.3 -47.7
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -3.5 -10.0 -4.3
Iowa Maryland 19.4 24 21.1
UNLV Boise St. -27.1 -20.5 -26.0
Colorado St. San Diego St. -4.9 -11.5 -7.8
Appalachian St. Troy 26.5 28.3 27.2
SMU Tulsa -3.4 -3.4 -4.4
Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Monroe 9.1 13.9 9.8
Arkansas St. Georgia St. 15.4 16.8 16.3
Memphis Tulane 27.6 25.8 29.9
Utah Oregon St. 35.1 32.9 36.1
Houston Vanderbilt 8.0 20.4 11.1
Duke Miami (Fla.) 8.5 8.7 8.8
Minnesota Michigan -12.0 -10.2 -12.7
Iowa St. Texas -7.9 -8.9 -8.5
North Texas UT-San Antonio -2.4 -0.3 -2.0
Kentucky Tennessee -12.1 -11.3 -13.0
Temple Notre Dame -12.1 -6.5 -11.4
New Mexico St. Idaho -2.2 -7.1 -3.7
Hawaii Air Force -2.9 -4.7 -2.7
Washington St. Stanford -16.4 -19.3 -16.9
Washington Arizona -0.3 2.8 1.5
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 9 PiRate    
Arkansas UT-Martin 35    

 

Here are our complete Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada vs. Florida Int’l.
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Oregon vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Rice vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Memphis vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army San Diego St. vs. Arizona *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. Utah St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Louisiana Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Arizona St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Kansas St. vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Rutgers
Independence SEC ACC Old Dominion * vs. Louisiana-Lafayette *
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. USC
Military ACC AAC Navy vs. Georgia Tech
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten North Carolina St. vs. Ohio *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC California * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Notre Dame vs. Florida
Cotton Playoff Playoff Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Alabama
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Washington St.
Ouback Big Ten SEC Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC WIsconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. LSU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Baylor
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas vs. UCLA
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Stanford vs. Alabama
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
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