Okay, so now we have had three consecutive weeks where theoretically you could have taken our selections and made a little bit of a profit. This happens from time to time where teams behave the way we believe they should.
Warning: this never lasts a long time, unless it is that one year in 20 where we get really lucky like in 2006 when we had a hot streak that lasted 11 weeks and returned an astronomical profit of about 40% ROI.
However, we still strongly advise and hope you will heed our advice not to use these picks for anything other than fun and entertainment. You are liable to lose your rent money if you actually play these fun-only selections.
If you are reading this for the first time, as many of you might be after a certain handicapper’s forum linked to us this week, we want to make sure you know this very important fact: we wager $0 every week on sporting events. We are former athletes and current mathletes. We treasure the profit we earn from our real occupations and are too stingy to give it up freely. We never wager money on the outcomes of games, and we loathe the fantasy gambling sites that not only stack the odds against you, but also may be rip-off scams that steal the money outright and then produce one or two winners that they can use for PR. Let the federal law enforcement agencies do their due diligence on these sites and by all means, keep your hard-earned money. Rather than lose it wagering on the outcome of games or the outcome of player performance, why not just invest in something worthwhile that guarantees the return of your money as well as some interest.
We are not genius investors. In 1980, when our founder first started earning a regular paycheck, he decided to invest the same monthly amount in the stock market using the old Dow Theory of buying the 5 cheapest Dow Jones Industrial Stocks from among the 10 highest dividend yielding stocks of the 30 Industrials. Later, he refined that when the Dogs of The Dow information began to come out explaining how to drop the weakest of those 5 stocks and double up on the second weakest. Multiple refinements altered it just a little, but the key is that this was not then and is not now gambling. Buying stocks makes you an “owner” of these conglomerates, allowing you to attend the annual meetings and cast your vote. You receive dividends–real money that can be reinvested in the company or used for other purposes. Many people profit this way.
Okay, the lecture is over for this week. Let’s get down to football. If you have been following our recent selections, our “profit-making” has been led by playing Money Line parlays that have better than Even odds. Our straight selections against the spread has just barely been over the 52.4% mark that breaks even (10-11 odds). We are also making a special selection at the end pertaining to tonight’s National League Division Series Game 5 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.
Straight Selections versus the Spread
|Ball St.||Georgia St.||15||Ball St.|
|Ohio U||Western Michigan||4||Ohio U|
|Michigan||Michigan St.||8||Michigan St.|
|South Carolina||Vanderbilt||2.5||South Carolina|
|Iowa St.||TCU||-20.5||Iowa St.|
|San Jose St.||San Diego St.||2.5||San Jose St.|
|Indianapolis||New England||-7.5||New England|
Money Line Parlays
|Money Line Parlay||4 Teams at 3-2||$259 payout on $100|
|North Carolina||Wake Forest||North Carolina|
|Mississippi St.||Louisiana Tech||Mississippi St.|
|Old Dominion||Charlotte||Old Dominion|
|New Mexico||Hawaii||New Mexico|
|Money Line Parlay||4 Teams at 3-2||$251 payout on $100|
|Southern Miss.||UT-San Antonio||Southern Miss.|
|Notre Dame||USC||Notre Dame|
|Money Line Parlay||4 Teams at 5-2||$356 payout on $100|
|N. Y. Jets||Washington||N. Y. Jets|
|Green Bay||San Diego||Green Bay|
We normally do not cover baseball on this forum. That does not mean we do not follow the game. To the contrary, our founder loves baseball more than any other sport and has been a sabermetric enthusiast predating the legendary Bill James’ ascent to fame. He is currently employed in an advanced metric position for a Major League entity, so he does not believe this forum should include any coverage of baseball. However, for today, he has given his clan permission to add this one game to the story, as we all agree that this is a logical play for tonight.
Baseball wagering includes two main types of wagers, a money line that is the same thing as a football money line, where you either select the favorite to win the game at less than even money odds, or you take the underdog to win and receive better than even money odds. The second basic wager is on totals, again in the same manner as football wagering, where you take the Over or Under.
However, there is a third type of wager, and it is relatively new. It is called the “Run Line.” We will just cover the typical Run Line proposition here, as there are variations. Basically, the Run Line sets the favorite as a 1 1/2 point favorite and gives you certain odds similar to the Money Line. For example, let’s say the Cleveland Indians are the regular Money Line favorite to beat the Chicago White Sox.
The line is Cle -145 Chw +125. This means if you wager on the Indians to win the game, you must put up 145 dollars to win 100 (245 because you get back your 145 wagered plus 100 if you win). If you take the Chisox, you will win 125 dollars for every 100 you wager.
For this game the Indians at -1.5 runs changes the odds substantially. If you select Cleveland to win by more than 1.5 runs (okay 2 or more runs), you might actually receive better than even money odds, while taking the White Sox and receiving 1.5 runs will be reduced to less than even money odds.
To most casual fans, the Run Line is just another sucker bet like a 7-point teaser or a three-game parlay in football or the Pick Six at the race track. However, to advance statistical geeks, this run line can be ambrosia. There are certain sharp bettors making a lot of money on these wagers–until they are cut off by the books that refuse to accept their wagers or greatly reduce the maximum amount they are allowed to wager.
So, that brings us to tonight’s baseball game. The Mets face the Dodgers in LA in the fifth and deciding game of their series. The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke against Jacob deGrom.
One of these pitchers posted an ERA near 5 in his last seven starts this season, giving up an OBP of .321 and a SLG of .444. The other pitcher posted an ERA of 1.61 in his last seven starts this season, giving up an OBP of .226 and a SLG of .267. Obviously, one of these two combatants wore down in the final six weeks of the season, while the other stayed fresh and had his best stuff of the season down the stretch. It makes us believe that one pitcher will be knocked out of the box before the 5th inning tonight, as the opposition takes a 3 or more run lead. From there, winning by more than 1.5 runs is a cinch. Throw in that by taking this fresh pitcher’s team tonight, you can get them at +165; you put up 100 and the book puts up 165, which equates to 5-3 odds.
Oh, the pitcher that appears to be spent is Mr. deGrom, while Greinke last lost at Dodger Stadium on May 16. Add in one other factor–deGrom is not as effective pitching on five days rest as he is pitching on four days rest. His ERA doubles when having an extra day off.
We believe LA will win this game by 3 or more runs, so use the Run Line and take the Dodgers at +165 tonight. (But remember, this is for fun only–do not really wager on this game).