The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 13, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 6: October 15-19, 2015

Playoff Teams Almost Determined After Five Weeks!

In this day of parity, it is not supposed to be this way.  20-24 teams are supposed to contend for the 12 playoff spots into Week 15 and on.  However, after just five weeks this year, the NFL has become a league of haves and have-nots.

It has been a long time since there were this many undefeated teams after five weeks of the season.  Additionally, you have divisions with one decent to very good team and three mediocre to plain awful teams.  Let’s take a look at the eight divisions.

AFC East: Many so-called experts believe the Patriots will run the table and could join the Miami Dolphins as one of two undefeated, untied teams to win the Super Bowl.  We are not ready to agree yet, but New England should win at least 13 games and easily claim this division, even with two fairly good teams trying to contend for Wildcard spots.

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills could both finish above .500, and you have to consider these Empire State rivals as two of just three teams contending for the final two spots in the AFC Playoffs.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati solidified their dominance in the division with an impressive victory over Seattle.  The Bengals are now prohibitive favorites to win the division title, especially if Ben Roethlisberger cannot return soon and return to his pre-injury form.

As for the Steelers, they are the third team (along with the Jets and Bills) fighting for the two Wildcard spots.

 

AFC South: A mediocre Indianapolis Colts team could be an 8-8 division winner, but they might still win this division with a record as pitiful as 6-10.  The other three teams combined may not reach 10 wins this year.  The Colts are 3-2 with their three wins coming against each of the three other South teams.

 

AFC West: Denver is somehow 5-0 with Peyton Manning looking pedestrian at best.  The Broncos are once again showing that the first year of having Wade Phillips as your defensive coordinator is always an improved defensive result.  The Broncos already have two games of light in front of their division rivals, and they could clinch a playoff spot by their 11th or 12th  game.

 

NFC East: This is the one division with a lot of uncertainty.  Dallas might be so far behind in the standings by the time Tony Romo returns, while Washington lacks the talent to win consistently.  The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles should go down to the last couple of weeks to decide the single playoff team from this division.  The two rivals square off on Monday Night Football this week in what should be an exciting and high-scoring game.

 

NFC North: It will be another division flag in Titletown USA, as the Green Bay Packers have only modest competition from their rivals, the Minnesota Vikings.  Minnesota could contend for a Wildcard spot, but we don’t believe they are ready to challenge the Packers.

 

NFC South: There are two playoff teams here, and the only decision is which will be the division winner and which will be the top Wildcard.  Atlanta and Carolina don’t face off until Weeks 14 and 16, and by then we expect the eventual division winner to be 10-3, and it would not surprise us if both teams are 10-3 by then.

 

NFC West: Seattle is lucky, lucky, lucky to be 3-2 instead of 2-3.  The Seahawks are going to struggle to make it to 9-7 this year and will have to contend with Minnesota for the number six seed.  Arizona could finish as strong as 14-2 if Carson Palmer stays healthy.

Playoff Seed Projections

AFC

1. New England

2. Cincinnati

3. Denver

4. Indianapolis

5. Buffalo

6. Pittsburgh

 

NFC

1. Arizona

2. Green Bay

3. Atlanta

4. Philadelphia

5. Carolina

6. Minnesota

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 103.9 103.1 104.2 103.7 2-3-0 117 103
Dallas 103.4 101.9 103.2 102.8 2-3-0 101 131
N.Y. Giants 100.8 100.7 101.0 100.8 3-2-0 132 109
Washington 95.5 95.4 95.7 95.5 2-3-0 97 104
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.8 108.2 109.0 108.7 5-0-0 137 81
Minnesota 101.4 99.2 102.8 101.1 2-2-0 80 73
Detroit 98.8 97.4 97.9 98.0 0-5-0 83 138
Chicago 94.1 93.9 94.1 94.0 2-3-0 86 142
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 101.4 101.5 101.7 101.5 4-0-0 108 71
Atlanta 100.5 101.1 101.2 100.9 5-0-0 162 112
New Orleans 96.3 92.7 96.0 95.0 1-4-0 103 143
Tampa Bay 91.4 92.5 91.0 91.6 2-3-0 110 148
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 108.0 107.5 109.0 108.2 4-1-0 190 90
Seattle 106.9 106.3 106.9 106.7 2-3-0 111 98
St. Louis 96.8 98.1 96.4 97.1 2-3-0 84 113
San Francisco 96.8 94.8 96.8 96.1 1-4-0 75 140
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.7 112.0 112.3 112.0 4-0-0 149 76
Buffalo 102.0 102.6 102.1 102.2 3-2-0 124 105
N. Y. Jets 101.4 101.9 102.1 101.8 3-1-0 95 55
Miami 94.8 96.2 93.5 94.8 1-3-0 65 101
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 104.7 105.6 105.2 105.2 5-0-0 148 101
Pittsburgh 104.2 104.3 104.3 104.3 3-2-0 120 95
Baltimore 102.6 101.7 102.7 102.3 1-4-0 123 137
Cleveland 95.0 94.1 95.3 94.8 2-3-0 118 132
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 101.2 101.8 100.9 101.3 3-2-0 99 113
Tennessee 96.1 95.8 96.8 96.2 1-3-0 102 91
Houston 95.1 95.9 94.6 95.2 1-4-0 97 135
Jacksonville 89.4 93.0 88.2 90.2 1-4-0 93 145
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.6 106.0 106.3 106.3 5-0-0 113 79
San Diego 99.4 99.3 98.8 99.2 2-3-0 116 134
Kansas City 98.1 99.0 97.7 98.3 2-3-0 117 143
Oakland 92.8 96.4 92.2 93.8 2-3-0 107 124

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 6      
Date of Games: October 15-19      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New Orleans Atlanta -1.2 -5.4 -2.2
NY Jets Washington 8.4 9.0 8.9
Pittsburgh Arizona -0.3 0.3 -1.2
Minnesota Kansas City 6.3 3.2 8.1
Buffalo Cincinnati 0.3 0.0 -0.1
Detroit Chicago 7.2 6.0 6.3
Cleveland Denver -8.6 -8.9 -8.0
Jacksonville Houston -3.2 -0.4 -3.9
Tennessee Miami 3.8 2.1 5.8
Seattle Carolina 9.0 8.3 8.7
Green Bay San Diego 12.4 11.9 13.2
San Francisco Baltimore -2.3 -3.4 -2.4
Indianapolis New England -7.5 -7.2 -8.4
Philadelphia NY Giants 5.1 4.4 5.2

 

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1 Comment

  1. GREAT WEB. SITE. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK THAT YOU DO .

    Comment by BILL SHALOM — October 13, 2015 @ 2:03 pm


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