The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 12, 2015

College Football Preview: October 13-17, 2015

Tube Madness
This is the week to burn your TV tubes out with constant football viewing (plus watching some baseball playoff games). There are games on four different days this week, as the Tuesday night Sun Belt package begins tomorrow.

Let’s take a look at the four excellent days and why you will want to watch a plethora of games this week.

Tuesday
There is just one game this night, but it is meaningful. Two Sun Belt Conference contenders, Arkansas State and South Alabama, face off in Mobile, where the winner will be 2-0 in league play and in good shape to go on to claim one of the league’s four bowl bids. You have two excellent coaches in Joey Jones at USA and Blake Anderson at ASU, both of whom could be on multiple short lists in December.

Thursday
Auburn at Kentucky: This game is a bowl elimination game plain and simple. We cannot see a way either team can make it to six wins if they do not win this game. If Kentucky can move to 3-1/5-1 with an impressive win, then the Wildcats could see a way to get to nine wins if things go their way. At 9-3, the Big Blue could move into contention for a Belk, Taxslayer, Liberty, or Music City Bowl berth rather than look square in the face at a Birmingham or Independence Bowl berth. For Auburn, there is no margin of error. The Tigers figure to be considerable underdogs in games against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Georgia, and with two losses, AU must win the other three games just to go 6-6.
UCLA at Stanford: This could be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game, although Utah, Arizona St., Cal, and the two Washington schools all believe they still have a good shot. The Bruins have not fared well against the Cardinal power teams in recent years. Stanford has won the last seven games between these two teams, including back-to-back wins to close the regular season and in the conference title game in 2012. Last year at the Rose Bowl, SU held then 9th-ranked UCLA to 282 total yards and 10 points while topping 200 yards on the ground and through the air. The loss knocked the Bruins out of the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Friday
Cincinnati at BYU: Both teams are going to go bowling, and this game will not affect conference standings, but it should be an exciting game, if for no other reason than to see which quarterbacks play for the two teams. For BYU, it could be freshman Beau Hoge, son of ESPN analyst Merril Hoge. Hoge comes from a Kentucky suburb of Cincinnati. For the Bearcats, Gunner Kiel may be recovered enough from a neck injury suffered against Memphis two weeks ago to see action, but his backup freshman Hayden Moore looked like Greg Cook from the 1960’s in Kiel’s stead.

Boise St. at Utah St.: This is probably the de facto division championship game in the Mountain West Conference’s Mountain Division. The Broncos have dominated this series winning the last 12 times against USU.

Houston at Tulane: The Cougars should win this game with relative ease, but this gives UH a chance to display their skills to a national audience. The only Group of 5 team ahead of the Cougars in the standings is Boise St., who will be playing on Friday night as well. Cougar coach Tom Herman is just in his first year, but we are hearing chirps that he could be at the top of the wish list at multiple Power 6 Conference schools where there will be openings aplenty in 2016.

Saturday
There are about 25 excellent matchups on Saturday, but we have isolated a baker’s dozen that really intrigue us.

Ole Miss at Memphis: This backyard brawl has been hard-fought even in years where one or both teams were mediocre or worse. Now that both teams are quite good, we expect this game to be high-scoring and close. If Memphis wants to jump to the head of the Group of 5 leaders for the New Year’s 6 at-large bowl bid, they are close to being in a must-win situation here. Ole Miss still holds out slim hopes of making the College Football Playoffs this year, but the Rebels must win out.

Louisville at Florida St.: A few weeks ago, this game did not look all that appetizing, but the Cardinals catch the Seminoles at the perfect time. UL enjoyed a bye week, while FSU had to play a tough game against rival Miami. Look for this game to be surprisingly close.

West Virginia at Baylor: Our PiRate Ratings elevated Baylor to the top of the charts this week, and the Bears look to be stronger this year than last. Last year, WVU upset BU in Morgantown, knocking the Bears out of a certain playoff spot in the process. With BU averaging 64 points per game, and the Mountaineers giving up 38.5 in their two Big 12 games, this could be a week where WVU scores 30 points and still loses by more than four touchdowns. Baylor currently averages better than 350 yards on the ground and through the air. No team has ever approached offensive numbers like this. They are in number two nationally in rushing and number eight nationally in passing, and their 725 total yards a game is almost 100 yards better than the number two total offense team. That’s just crazy!

Iowa at Northwestern: Northwestern got their hats handed to them in A2 on Saturday. If Iowa wants any respect, the Hawkeyes must win in Evanston this Saturday. If NU recovers and knocks off the undefeated Hawkeyes, they immediately return to the top of the Big Ten West standings.

Alabama at Texas A&M: Alabama looked vulnerable Saturday night against Arkansas. The Crimson Tide must bring the same performance against the Aggies this week that they brought to Athens, GA, two weeks ago. A&M had a bye week, and defensive coordinator John Chavis has had decent success stopping good Alabama offenses. With an extra week to prepare, the Aggies could be poised to stop this mediocre Tide attack. Last year in Tuscaloosa, the Tide humiliated the Aggies 59-0 just after looking terrible against Arkansas the week before. Is lightning prepared to strike in the same place twice? We don’t think so. We believe this will be a top heavyweight fight with a relatively low score in the neighborhood of 21-20. It’s can’t miss football watching. If Texas A&M can pull out this game, they really only have two more difficult games in their way of the SEC Championship Game.

Syracuse at Virginia: Why did we pick this game, since on the surface, it looks like one to toss out? There’s one simple reason. Last week, the Arizona Bowl finally became official for this season, meaning 41 bowls will require 80 bowl eligible teams, since two teams will play two postseason games. As of today, we believe that the 80th bowl eligible team will come from a group of multiple contenders from the Atlantic Coast Conference. Boston College, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St., Syracuse, and Wake Forest could all finish at 5-7. We don’t see Virginia in that mix, and we feel almost certain that head coach Mike London is making his swan song this season in Charlottesville. However, UVA has just enough talent to knock off the Orangemen at Scott Stadium this week, making it almost a certainty that Syracuse will not make it to 6-6.

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: The Sooners laid another egg last week against Texas in the Red River Rivalry game. Under Bob Stoops in recent years, they have come up with stinkers like this one, but they always followed it up with wins. Oklahoma has not dropped back-to-back regular season games since Stoops’ first season in Norman (1999 to Notre Dame and Texas), but it could happen again this week. Kansas State took TCU to the final minutes of the game Saturday night, and the Wildcats last lost home games in consecutive weeks 10 seasons ago.

Michigan St. at Michigan: There’s no getting around it: this is the real game of the week. It will be a brutal, hard-fought game, and it wouldn’t surprise us if 60 minutes are not enough to decide the outcome. Michigan is doing wonders on the defensive side, producing results that have not been duplicated on the field in over 20 years. Their three consecutive shutouts were last performed by Kansas State in 1995, but those three blankings came against Akron, Northern Illinois, and Missouri who combined to go 8-25 that season. The Wolverines have shut out two ranked teams in this streak, and that hasn’t happened in 67 years! Oh, that team that last did it in 1948 was Michigan, when they bested Oregon, Northwestern, and Purdue in successive weeks. Northwestern and Purdue were ranked at the time.

Michigan State is getting no love, even though the Spartans are 6-0. Their wins have not been impressive, and they could have lost three of those six games. Still, this is a backyard brawl, and the two teams have not both been ranked this high before facing off since 1999, when then 11th-ranked State knocked off #3 Michigan 34-31 in East Lansing. This game is in the Big House.

Florida at LSU: Normally, this game would be the top contest of the week. You have two undefeated SEC teams both ranked in the top 10. However, CBS didn’t even choose this game as their nationally televised game, forcing it to be the 7:00 PM EDT ESPN game. The winner will almost assuredly move into the top 5 on Sunday morning, while the loser still keeps playoff hopes alive. Florida might have smooth sailing all the way to a regular season finale against Florida State, if they can pull off the mild upset.

Last week, LSU showed the makings of a decent passing game, when South Carolina tried their darndest to force the Tigers to throw the ball. Brandon Harris completed 18 of 28 passes for 228 yards and a couple of touchdowns. If he can put up numbers in this range the rest of the year, with Leonard Fournette continuing to flash Heisman Trophy numbers, LSU can finish 11-1 or even 12-0 in the regular season.

USC at Notre Dame: Our thoughts go to USC Coach Steve Sarkisian, who has been placed on leave so he can receive help for his alcohol-related health issues. We doubt he will ever coach another game for the Trojans. For the second time in three years, USC finishes the season with an interim head coach in Clay Helton. Helton was the second of two interim coaches for USC in 2013, and he led the Trojans to a 45-20 Las Vegas Bowl win over Fresno State in his only other game as a head coach. Oddly, because of the timing, this will be the fourth different head coach in four years for USC in their game against the Irish.

Notre Dame is still a work in progress on both sides of the ball this year, but the Irish keep fighting for four quarters. The coaches don’t know exactly what to expect against USC, as the Trojans could have a large bag of tricks on hand for this game. They have nothing to lose now, and with games against Utah, Cal, and Arizona to follow, their season is in dire emergency of going south to the bad side of .500 in what could become a seven-game losing streak.

Penn St. at Ohio St.: Neither team is living up to expectations, which is really comical, since the Buckeyes remain number one in the nation, and the Nittany Lions are 5-1 with a loss to Temple that does not look so bad now. Penn State was the last Big Ten team to beat Ohio State in Columbus, coming in 2011 when interim OSU coach Luke Fickell squared off against interim PSU coach Tom Bradley.

If the Buckeyes come out a little flat like they did in three of their previous four games, this game could become quite interesting. The Buckeyes have yet to face a star quarterback this year, and Lion Christian Hackenberg is starting to come around with a 141.7 QB Rating in his last three games, including a 6/0 TD/Int ratio.

Arizona St. at Utah: It would not shock us at all, if this game determines the Pac-12 South representative in the conference title game. The Utes are coming off an emotional key nationally-televised win over California, and a win this week would leave the Utes in clear control of the division race, especially if UCLA loses to Stanford.

Utah back Devontae Booker does not get the publicity of an Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette, but the senior combines both power and speed, and he has a better pair of hands than either of his two more famous counterparts. Booker leads the Utes in both rushing and passing, and against Oregon, the southpaw went wide left on a sweep and pulled up to complete a 25-yard touchdown pass to Britain Covey.

Arizona State could be without its top offensive weapon in running back Demario Richard. Richard is questionable for this game, and former starting back D. J. Foster may have to move back from his wide receiver spot for this game. Foster led the Sun Devils with more than 1,000 rushing yards last year, but he is ASU’s leading receiver as a wideout this year.

San Diego St. at San Jose St.: This is an interesting Mountain West thriller, where the winner of this game has a heavy chance of taking the MWC West Division title. These two teams have a long history of facing off on the gridiron with San Jose State holding a slim 19-17-2 margin over the Aztecs. Aztec coach Rocky Long and Spartan coach Ron Carragher were both on the UCLA football staff in the 1990’s. Both have incredibly talented assistants for a non Power-6 school.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Utah
5 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M
7 Baylor
8 Clemson
9 LSU
10 Northwestern
11 Florida
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Michigan
15 USC
16 Michigan St.
17 Notre Dame
18 Ole Miss
19 Georgia
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Iowa
22 UCLA
23 California
24 West Virginia
25 Houston
26 Boise St.
27 Toledo
28 Temple
29 Memphis
30 BYU
31 Navy
32 Pittsburgh
33 North Carolina
34 Duke
35 Kansas St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Mississippi St.
38 Kentucky
39 Missouri
40 North Carolina St.
41 Texas Tech
42 Wisconsin
43 Arizona St.
44 Oregon
45 Illinois
46 Indiana
47 Arkansas
48 Louisville
49 Miami (Fl.)
50 Penn St.
51 Washington
52 Tennessee
53 Syracuse
54 Ohio
55 Cincinnati
56 East Carolina
57 Boston College
58 Minnesota
59 Georgia Southern
60 Marshall
61 Auburn
62 Arizona
63 Air Force
64 Louisiana Tech
65 Georgia Tech
66 Nebraska
67 Bowling Green
68 Appalachian St.
69 Tulsa
70 South Carolina
71 Virginia Tech
72 Utah St.
73 Iowa St.
74 Oregon St.
75 Colorado
76 Vanderbilt
77 Central Michigan
78 Wake Forest
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas
81 Northern Illinois
82 Washington St.
83 Virginia
84 Southern Miss.
85 Arkansas St.
86 Ball St.
87 Akron
88 Connecticut
89 Western Michigan
90 Maryland
91 San Jose St.
92 South Alabama
93 Rutgers
94 Colorado St.
95 San Diego St.
96 Massachusetts
97 Buffalo
98 Purdue
99 UNLV
100 New Mexico
101 Rice
102 South Florida
103 Nevada
104 Kent St.
105 Florida Int’l
106 UL-Monroe
107 Hawaii
108 Tulane
109 Army
110 UL-Lafayette
111 Troy
112 UT-San Antonio
113 Texas St.
114 SMU
115 Old Dominion
116 Fresno St.
117 Eastern Michigan
118 Florida Atlantic
119 Central Florida
120 Idaho
121 Miami (O)
122 UTEP
123 Kansas
124 Charlotte
125 Georgia St.
126 North Texas
127 New Mexico St.
128 Wyoming

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Baylor 129.8 126.6 130.8 129.1
2 Alabama 127.6 125.3 127.0 126.6
3 TCU 128.4 119.1 129.1 125.5
4 Ohio St. 126.4 119.1 126.9 124.1
5 Utah 125.2 119.3 124.4 123.0
6 Ole Miss 124.5 118.1 122.4 121.7
7 LSU 122.7 119.4 122.6 121.6
8 Notre Dame 122.5 119.2 122.5 121.4
9 Stanford 121.7 120.5 121.7 121.3
10 Texas A&M 121.4 119.2 120.5 120.4
11 USC 120.7 117.2 120.7 119.5
12 Michigan 120.2 117.4 120.7 119.4
13 UCLA 121.8 115.3 119.6 118.9
14 Oklahoma 119.5 116.5 119.5 118.5
15 Georgia 120.8 113.4 119.8 118.0
16 Clemson 117.6 118.4 117.9 118.0
17 Florida 118.8 115.8 119.0 117.9
18 Tennessee 119.2 114.5 118.7 117.5
19 Boise St. 117.8 113.4 117.8 116.3
20 North Carolina 116.2 116.1 116.0 116.1
21 California 117.5 112.5 117.6 115.9
22 Arkansas 118.0 112.4 117.2 115.9
23 Arizona St. 116.4 111.7 115.8 114.6
24 Georgia Tech 115.9 113.0 114.9 114.6
25 Michigan St. 115.6 111.4 114.5 113.8
26 Florida St. 113.6 113.9 112.2 113.2
27 West Virginia 115.2 109.9 114.6 113.2
28 Oregon 115.5 107.9 114.4 112.6
29 Mississippi St. 114.0 110.0 113.6 112.5
30 Auburn 113.6 111.4 112.4 112.5
31 Oklahoma St. 113.0 111.1 113.2 112.4
32 Virginia Tech 111.2 109.9 111.3 110.8
33 Louisville 109.6 112.4 110.2 110.7
34 Wisconsin 110.2 110.7 109.6 110.2
35 Temple 108.8 111.1 109.9 109.9
36 North Carolina St. 109.7 110.9 108.6 109.7
37 Texas Tech 112.4 103.7 112.6 109.6
38 Arizona 111.6 105.7 110.4 109.2
39 Duke 108.6 109.4 109.6 109.2
40 Missouri 109.5 106.3 108.5 108.1
41 Iowa 106.8 109.6 107.6 108.0
42 Western Kentucky 107.2 106.7 108.8 107.6
43 Miami 107.1 107.7 107.4 107.4
44 Nebraska 108.3 106.1 107.3 107.2
45 Washington 107.5 105.6 108.4 107.2
46 Kansas St. 110.6 99.6 109.9 106.7
47 Northwestern 106.5 106.5 106.0 106.3
48 Texas 107.1 104.7 107.0 106.3
49 Minnesota 106.6 105.4 106.0 106.0
50 Pittsburgh 105.2 106.3 106.3 105.9
51 Penn St. 104.5 107.3 104.9 105.6
52 Illinois 106.5 104.3 105.4 105.4
53 Memphis 104.7 105.1 105.8 105.2
54 Cincinnati 104.5 105.1 105.8 105.1
55 Houston 101.3 109.3 104.0 104.9
56 South Carolina 106.7 103.0 104.7 104.8
57 Kentucky 106.1 102.7 105.4 104.7
58 BYU 104.9 103.5 105.5 104.6
59 Toledo 103.0 102.2 104.6 103.3
60 Colorado 104.6 99.5 103.2 102.4
61 Navy 100.1 103.2 100.9 101.4
62 Boston College 100.3 104.4 98.6 101.1
63 Bowling Green 98.3 102.7 100.4 100.5
64 Washington St. 102.2 97.6 101.4 100.4
65 Louisiana Tech 100.2 98.7 100.9 99.9
66 Utah St. 99.6 99.8 99.9 99.8
67 Vanderbilt 101.2 96.1 100.8 99.4
68 Virginia 100.5 97.7 99.8 99.3
69 Appalachian St. 97.0 100.3 99.0 98.8
70 Wake Forest 96.2 100.4 95.5 97.4
71 Indiana 97.1 98.1 96.9 97.4
72 East Carolina 96.0 99.2 96.8 97.3
73 Georgia Southern 96.3 98.6 97.1 97.3
74 Purdue 98.0 97.3 96.6 97.3
75 San Diego St. 95.0 100.0 96.1 97.0
76 Rutgers 97.8 94.6 96.0 96.1
77 Ohio 93.8 98.5 95.7 96.0
78 Marshall 95.5 96.1 96.0 95.9
79 Western Michigan 95.5 95.0 96.6 95.7
80 Middle Tennessee 95.6 94.4 95.1 95.0
81 Air Force 93.5 98.1 93.0 94.9
82 San Jose St. 93.7 96.7 93.8 94.7
83 Northern Illinois 93.4 96.4 94.1 94.6
84 Syracuse 93.4 96.8 92.4 94.2
85 South Florida 91.2 97.8 91.5 93.5
86 Tulsa 90.8 96.0 91.9 92.9
87 Maryland 94.1 91.3 93.0 92.8
88 Iowa St. 94.3 90.5 93.2 92.7
89 Florida International 91.2 93.8 92.8 92.6
90 Nevada 90.3 94.3 90.0 91.5
91 Colorado St. 92.8 90.0 91.1 91.3
92 Oregon St. 91.5 88.6 89.6 89.9
93 Akron 86.7 93.4 88.5 89.5
94 Central Michigan 87.4 91.2 89.6 89.4
95 Southern Mississippi 89.2 90.0 88.7 89.3
96 Arkansas St. 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
97 New Mexico 88.8 89.5 87.6 88.6
98 Massachusetts 87.0 90.3 88.5 88.6
99 Connecticut 86.2 91.7 87.3 88.4
100 Tulane 87.7 90.0 86.4 88.0
101 Hawaii 86.9 89.1 86.9 87.6
102 Buffalo 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
103 SMU 85.1 89.0 85.1 86.4
104 Ball St. 85.2 87.7 85.9 86.3
105 Rice 83.9 87.8 84.4 85.4
106 UL-Lafayette 83.9 87.7 84.5 85.4
107 Central Florida 83.9 87.1 84.2 85.1
108 UNLV 82.8 85.4 84.0 84.1
109 UT-San Antonio 81.5 84.3 83.3 83.0
110 Kent St. 82.1 84.4 82.5 83.0
111 Florida Atlantic 81.4 85.2 81.7 82.8
112 Fresno St. 82.0 86.1 80.1 82.7
113 Army 78.4 87.9 79.9 82.1
114 UL-Monroe 82.0 79.8 81.8 81.2
115 Texas St. 79.9 83.4 79.0 80.8
116 South Alabama 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
117 Wyoming 78.6 81.0 77.4 79.0
118 Old Dominion 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
119 UTEP 75.7 78.1 75.3 76.4
120 Eastern Michigan 73.5 82.6 73.0 76.4
121 Miami (O) 74.7 79.5 74.6 76.3
122 Troy 75.2 75.6 77.0 75.9
123 North Texas 72.6 78.3 72.7 74.5
124 New Mexico St. 73.8 74.9 74.0 74.2
125 Idaho 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
126 Georgia St. 74.0 72.9 73.7 73.5
127 Kansas 75.7 68.9 73.3 72.6
128 Charlotte 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 2-0 5-0 108.8 111.1 109.9 109.9
Cincinnati 0-2 3-2 104.5 105.1 105.8 105.1
East Carolina 1-1 3-3 96.0 99.2 96.8 97.3
South Florida 0-1 2-3 91.2 97.8 91.5 93.5
Connecticut 1-1 3-3 86.2 91.7 87.3 88.4
Central Florida 0-2 0-6 83.9 87.1 84.2 85.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-0 5-0 104.7 105.1 105.8 105.2
Houston 2-0 5-0 101.3 109.3 104.0 104.9
Navy 2-0 4-1 100.1 103.2 100.9 101.4
Tulsa 0-1 3-2 90.8 96.0 91.9 92.9
Tulane 1-1 2-3 87.7 90.0 86.4 88.0
SMU 0-2 1-5 85.1 89.0 85.1 86.4
             
AAC Averages     95.0 98.7 95.8 96.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 2-0 5-0 117.6 118.4 117.9 118.0
Florida St. 3-0 5-0 113.6 113.9 112.2 113.2
Louisville 1-1 2-3 109.6 112.4 110.2 110.7
North Carolina St. 0-2 4-2 109.7 110.9 108.6 109.7
Boston College 0-3 3-3 100.3 104.4 98.6 101.1
Wake Forest 1-2 3-3 96.2 100.4 95.5 97.4
Syracuse 1-0 3-2 93.4 96.8 92.4 94.2
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 1-0 4-1 116.2 116.1 116.0 116.1
Georgia Tech 0-3 2-4 115.9 113.0 114.9 114.6
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3 111.2 109.9 111.3 110.8
Duke 2-0 5-1 108.6 109.4 109.6 109.2
Miami 0-1 3-2 107.1 107.7 107.4 107.4
Pittsburgh 2-0 4-1 105.2 106.3 106.3 105.9
Virginia 0-1 1-4 100.5 97.7 99.8 99.3
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.4 107.2 107.7
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 2-0 5-0 129.8 126.6 130.8 129.1
TCU 3-0 6-0 128.4 119.1 129.1 125.5
Oklahoma 1-1 4-1 119.5 116.5 119.5 118.5
West Virginia 0-2 3-2 115.2 109.9 114.6 113.2
Oklahoma St. 3-0 6-0 113.0 111.1 113.2 112.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 112.4 103.7 112.6 109.6
Kansas St. 0-2 3-2 110.6 99.6 109.9 106.7
Texas 1-2 2-4 107.1 104.7 107.0 106.3
Iowa St. 1-1 2-3 94.3 90.5 93.2 92.7
Kansas 0-2 0-5 75.7 68.9 73.3 72.6
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 2-0 6-0 126.4 119.1 126.9 124.1
Michigan 2-0 5-1 120.2 117.4 120.7 119.4
Michigan St. 2-0 6-0 115.6 111.4 114.5 113.8
Penn St. 2-0 5-1 104.5 107.3 104.9 105.6
Indiana 0-2 4-2 97.1 98.1 96.9 97.4
Rutgers 0-2 2-3 97.8 94.6 96.0 96.1
Maryland 0-2 2-4 94.1 91.3 93.0 92.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 1-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 109.6 110.2
Iowa 2-0 6-0 106.8 109.6 107.6 108.0
Nebraska 0-2 2-4 108.3 106.1 107.3 107.2
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 106.5 106.5 106.0 106.3
Minnesota 1-1 4-2 106.6 105.4 106.0 106.0
Illinois 1-1 4-2 106.5 104.3 105.4 105.4
Purdue 0-2 1-5 98.0 97.3 96.6 97.3
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 3-0 5-1 107.2 106.7 108.8 107.6
Marshall 2-0 5-1 95.5 96.1 96.0 95.9
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-4 95.6 94.4 95.1 95.0
Florida International 1-1 3-3 91.2 93.8 92.8 92.6
Florida Atlantic 1-1 1-4 81.4 85.2 81.7 82.8
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
Charlotte 0-2 2-3 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 2-1 4-2 100.2 98.7 100.9 99.9
Southern Mississippi 1-1 3-3 89.2 90.0 88.7 89.3
Rice 2-1 3-3 83.9 87.8 84.4 85.4
UT-San Antonio 1-1 1-5 81.5 84.3 83.3 83.0
UTEP 0-2 2-4 75.7 78.1 75.3 76.4
North Texas 0-2 0-5 72.6 78.3 72.7 74.5
             
CUSA Averages     86.1 88.2 86.5 86.9
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 122.5 119.2 122.5 121.4
BYU   4-2 104.9 103.5 105.5 104.6
Army   1-5 78.4 87.9 79.9 82.1
             
Independents Averages     101.9 103.5 102.6 102.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 2-0 4-2 98.3 102.7 100.4 100.5
Ohio 2-0 5-1 93.8 98.5 95.7 96.0
Akron 1-1 3-3 86.7 93.4 88.5 89.5
Massachusetts 0-1 1-4 87.0 90.3 88.5 88.6
Buffalo 0-1 2-3 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
Kent St. 1-1 2-4 82.1 84.4 82.5 83.0
Miami (O) 0-2 1-5 74.7 79.5 74.6 76.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-0 103.0 102.2 104.6 103.3
Western Michigan 1-0 2-3 95.5 95.0 96.6 95.7
Northern Illinois 1-1 3-3 93.4 96.4 94.1 94.6
Central Michigan 1-1 2-4 87.4 91.2 89.6 89.4
Ball St. 1-2 2-4 85.2 87.7 85.9 86.3
Eastern Michigan 0-2 1-5 73.5 82.6 73.0 76.4
             
MAC Averages     88.1 91.9 89.3 89.8
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 2-0 5-1 117.8 113.4 117.8 116.3
Utah St. 2-0 3-2 99.6 99.8 99.9 99.8
Air Force 2-0 3-2 93.5 98.1 93.0 94.9
Colorado St. 0-2 2-4 92.8 90.0 91.1 91.3
New Mexico 1-1 3-3 88.8 89.5 87.6 88.6
Wyoming 0-2 0-6 78.6 81.0 77.4 79.0
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-0 3-3 95.0 100.0 96.1 97.0
San Jose St. 2-1 3-3 93.7 96.7 93.8 94.7
Nevada 1-1 3-3 90.3 94.3 90.0 91.5
Hawaii 0-2 2-4 86.9 89.1 86.9 87.6
UNLV 1-1 2-4 82.8 85.4 84.0 84.1
Fresno St. 0-3 1-5 82.0 86.1 80.1 82.7
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 3-0 4-1 121.7 120.5 121.7 121.3
California 2-1 5-1 117.5 112.5 117.6 115.9
Oregon 1-2 3-3 115.5 107.9 114.4 112.6
Washington 1-1 3-2 107.5 105.6 108.4 107.2
Washington St. 1-1 3-2 102.2 97.6 101.4 100.4
Oregon St. 0-2 2-3 91.5 88.6 89.6 89.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 2-0 5-0 125.2 119.3 124.4 123.0
USC 1-2 3-2 120.7 117.2 120.7 119.5
UCLA 1-1 4-1 121.8 115.3 119.6 118.9
Arizona St. 2-1 4-2 116.4 111.7 115.8 114.6
Arizona 1-2 4-2 111.6 105.7 110.4 109.2
Colorado 0-2 3-3 104.6 99.5 103.2 102.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.5 112.3 111.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-2 4-2 120.8 113.4 119.8 118.0
Florida 4-0 6-0 118.8 115.8 119.0 117.9
Tennessee 1-2 3-3 119.2 114.5 118.7 117.5
Missouri 1-2 4-2 109.5 106.3 108.5 108.1
South Carolina 0-4 2-4 106.7 103.0 104.7 104.8
Kentucky 2-1 4-1 106.1 102.7 105.4 104.7
Vanderbilt 0-2 2-3 101.2 96.1 100.8 99.4
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 2-1 5-1 127.6 125.3 127.0 126.6
Ole Miss 2-1 5-1 124.5 118.1 122.4 121.7
LSU 3-0 5-0 122.7 119.4 122.6 121.6
Texas A&M 2-0 5-0 121.4 119.2 120.5 120.4
Arkansas 1-2 2-4 118.0 112.4 117.2 115.9
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 114.0 110.0 113.6 112.5
Auburn 0-2 3-2 113.6 111.4 112.4 112.5
             
SEC Averages     116.0 112.0 115.2 114.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 4-1 97.0 100.3 99.0 98.8
Georgia Southern 2-0 4-1 96.3 98.6 97.1 97.3
Arkansas St. 1-0 2-3 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
UL-Lafayette 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.7 84.5 85.4
UL-Monroe 0-1 1-4 82.0 79.8 81.8 81.2
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 79.9 83.4 79.0 80.8
South Alabama 1-0 3-2 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
Troy 0-1 1-4 75.2 75.6 77.0 75.9
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-5 73.8 74.9 74.0 74.2
Idaho 0-2 1-4 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
Georgia St. 1-1 1-4 74.0 72.9 73.7 73.5
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 83.9 82.3 82.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.0 112.0 115.2 114.4
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.5 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
4 ACC 107.5 108.4 107.2 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 101.9 103.5 102.6 102.7
7 AAC 95.0 98.7 95.8 96.5
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
9 MAC 88.1 91.9 89.3 89.8
10 CUSA 86.1 88.2 86.5 86.9
11 SBC 81.6 83.9 82.3 82.6

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Utah
3 LSU
4 Clemson

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid

# Team
1 Temple
2 Toledo
3 Houston
4 Memphis
5 Boise St.

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10

# Team
10 Vanderbilt
9 Virginia
8 Wake Forest
7 Indiana
6 Purdue
5 Syracuse
4 Maryland
3 Iowa St.
2 Oregon St.
1 Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.6
2 North Dakota St. 95.8
3 Harvard 94.5
4 Coastal Carolina 91.7
5 South Dakota St. 90.8
6 Dartmouth 90.7
7 Illinois St. 89.8
8 Chattanooga 89.7
9 James Madison 89.6
10 McNeese St. 89.0

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. vs. Middle Tennessee
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Oregon vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Colorado St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC UL-Lafayette * vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army San Diego St. vs. Syracuse *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Ohio U
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Florida Int’l.
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina vs. Arizona St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Kansas St. vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC Old Dominion * vs. Miami
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington
Military ACC AAC Navy vs. North Carolina St.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Illinois vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma St.
Arizona CUSA MWC Southern Miss. vs. San Jose St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Kentucky
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Nevada *
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Alabama vs. Florida St.
Cotton Playoff Playoff Baylor vs. Michigan
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Utah
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. California
Ouback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC Florida vs. TCU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 LSU vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma vs. UCLA
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners   vs.  
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, October 13        
South Alabama Arkansas St. -10.0 -2.8 -8.9
         
Thursday, October 15        
Kentucky Auburn -4.5 -5.7 -4.0
North Texas Western Kentucky -32.1 -25.9 -33.6
Stanford UCLA 2.9 8.2 5.1
         
Friday, October 16        
BYU Cincinnati 3.9 1.9 3.2
Utah St. Boise St. -15.7 -11.1 -15.4
Tulane Houston -11.6 -17.3 -15.6
Fresno St. UNLV 1.7 3.2 -1.4
         
Saturday, October 17        
Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l. 6.9 3.1 4.8
Kansas Texas Tech -34.2 -32.3 -36.8
Memphis Ole Miss -17.8 -11.0 -14.6
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 16.3 13.8 15.2
Florida St. Louisville 7.0 4.5 5.0
Baylor West Virginia 17.6 19.7 19.2
Northwestern Iowa 2.2 -0.6 0.9
Wisconsin Purdue 15.2 16.4 16.0
Florida Atlantic Marshall -11.6 -8.4 -11.8
Connecticut South Florida -2.5 -3.6 -1.7
East Carolina Tulsa 8.2 6.2 7.9
Ohio U Western Michigan 0.8 6.0 1.6
Toledo Eastern Michigan 32.5 22.6 34.6
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 13.7 9.7 11.6
Central Michigan Buffalo 5.8 2.4 5.5
Miami (O) Northern Illinois -16.7 -14.9 -17.5
Bowling Green Akron 13.6 11.3 13.9
Ball St. Georgia St. 14.2 17.8 15.2
Massachusetts Kent St. 7.9 8.9 9.0
Colorado St. Air Force 1.3 -6.1 0.1
Troy Idaho 8.0 0.9 8.5
Miami (FL) Virginia Tech -1.1 0.8 -0.9
Texas A&M Alabama -3.2 -3.1 -3.5
Virginia Syracuse 10.1 3.9 10.4
Old Dominion Charlotte 9.3 12.9 8.3
Kansas St. Oklahoma -2.9 -13.9 -6.6
Indiana Rutgers 2.3 6.5 3.9
Michigan Michigan St. 6.6 8.0 8.2
Minnesota Nebraska 1.3 2.3 1.7
Washington St. Oregon St. 13.7 12.0 14.8
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.5 9.9 6.9
Wyoming Nevada -9.2 -10.8 -10.1
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. 26.0 27.2 26.6
UL-Monroe Appalachian St. -12.0 -17.5 -14.2
New Mexico Hawaii 5.4 3.9 4.2
LSU Florida 6.9 6.6 6.6
North Carolina Wake Forest 22.0 17.7 22.5
Clemson Boston College 20.3 17.0 22.3
Iowa St. TCU -31.1 -25.6 -32.9
Southern Miss. Texas-San Antonio 10.7 8.7 8.4
Temple Central Florida 27.4 26.5 28.2
Notre Dame USC 4.8 5.0 4.8
Georgia Missouri 14.3 10.1 14.3
Ohio St. Penn St. 24.9 14.8 25.0
Colorado Arizona -4.0 -3.2 -4.2
Utah Arizona St. 11.8 10.6 11.6
Washington Oregon -5.0 0.7 -3.0
San Jose St. San Diego St. 1.2 -0.8 0.2
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 7 PiRate    
Army Bucknell 22    

 

Advertisements

Leave a Comment »

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: