The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 5, 2015

College Football Preview: October 8-10, 2015

Note: South Carolina – LSU game has been moved from USC to LSU.  We have updated the spreads for that game below.

Deja vu in the Big Ten?

We have stated it earlier in the season, but at this point in the season, the Big Ten race looks eerily similar to the 1969 Big Ten season. Of course, there are differences, especially in the way the game is played today as compared to 46 seasons ago, but there are enough similarities that it has heightened our enthusiasm toward watching the Big Ten games.

For a little background, our PiRate Ratings began about this time 46 years ago. It was about four games into the season (10-game seasons for most, 9-game season still for Ohio St.), that we looked in the newspaper to discover the entire top ten was undefeated and untied. Our founder thought, “how can you determine which of these 10 teams is really the best?”

He began looking at comparative scores and how easily or difficult each win was. That is how the PiRate Ratings started. At first, no numerical rating was awarded; it was strictly who is better than who.
Ohio State entered the 1969 season after becoming the surprise 1968 National Champion. The Buckeyes had knocked off unbeaten USC with Heisman Trophy winner O.J. Simpson the previous year. Coach Woody Hayes’ team was predominately a group of sensational sophomores. Beginning the 1969 season, the Buckeyes were the clear-cut number one team.

Purdue was also a pre-season top 10 team entering 1969. The Boilermakers were coming off three consecutive 8-2 regular seasons (with a Rose Bowl win in 1966-67 to make it a ninth win). Purdue had the top quarterback in the conference in Mike Phipps, and many experts believed he was the best passer in the nation and certain first QB to be picked in the next NFL Draft.

Michigan had finished the 1968 season with a 50-14 pasting by Ohio State. Worse than the final score was that the Buckeyes led the Wolverines 44-14 late in the fourth quarter when outstanding fullback Jim Otis barreled his way into the end zone for a touchdown. Up 50-14, Hayes decided to punish the hated rival to the north and go for two points. Bill Long, the 1967 starter who lost his QB job to Buckeye great Rex Kern attempted to pass to Bill Pollitt but overthrew him, and the try was unsuccessful. The Wolverines had to deal with this defeat for a year, and they vowed to get their revenge.
Michigan began 1969 with a new head coach in fiery Bo Schembechler, who had already enjoyed success as a 6-year head coach at Miami of Ohio. Schembechler favored shortening games with a tough defense that stopped the run and rushed the quarterback, while grinding it out with a power running game and play-action passing game on offense.
By now, you should be able to see the similarities. The 1969 Ohio State team began the season as the obvious number one team with a group of more than two dozen junior stars. Purdue figured to be the top challenger to Ohio State with a great quarterback and an exceptional coach in Jack Mollenkopf, who had built the Boilermaker program up to national prominence, even taking PU to the top spot in the polls for a couple weeks in the past.
Michigan was not picked to contend for the top three spots in the Big Ten with a new coach, with a new philosophy, and a lot of new personnel.

The one substitute in this similarity to 2015 is to change Purdue to Michigan St. Here is what you have in 2015.
Ohio State is the runaway number one choice as the season begins and continues. Michigan State with outstanding coach Mark Dantonio and top quarterback Connor Cook has risen to national prominence and is the top contender. Michigan with fiery new coach Jim Harbaugh with years of past experience is the team nobody picked to contend, coming in behind Penn State in the preseason pecking order for number four in the East Division.

Now, add another little fact to the similarity. The 1969 Wolverine team fell early to a team from another power conference, said team then going on to win that conference and play in the Orange Bowl. Missouri beat the 1969 Wolverines. UM was written off after that defeat, but Missouri won the Big 8 title and played in the Orange Bowl.
2015 Michigan lost at Utah to begin the season. With the Utes now 4-0 and nationally ranked after winning by four touchdowns at Oregon, that UM loss in Salt Lake City does not look so bad. With consecutive shutout wins, the Wolverines surely look like a Schembechler team. Harbaugh did play for Bo in Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines have a tough game this week against unbeaten Northwestern. This one could see less than 20 total points scored, and a 0-0 score late in the game would not be surprising. It is homecoming in Ann Arbor. Michigan better not be looking ahead to the next game for the Paul Bunyan Trophy against the Spartans, because this NU team owns a win over Stanford, and they do not fear the Wolverines.

The Big Ten is going to continue to be the most interesting conference until things play out. With Iowa still undefeated, the races in both divisions will be fun to watch.

Next Coaches to move to Power 5 Conference Teams

There appears to be future openings at teams in Power 5 Conferences. Depending on who you believe, there could be a half-dozen openings in the big time.

Illinois figures to look for a new full-time coach, but if interim Bill Cubit continues to perform well, this job may not be open. Paul Rhoads is in serious jeopardy at Iowa State. Virginia’s Mike London faced a much too difficult schedule, and he has virtually no chance of guiding the Cavaliers to a winning record. Darrell Hazell might have secured his spot at Purdue had the Boilermakers been able to close the deal and upset Michigan State, but Hazell is likely to be fired at the end of this season if Purdue finishes in the West Division basement again.

Then, there are some big name coaches at big name schools that have the fans, alums, and boosters complaining. Charlie Strong at Texas is probably safe because the Longhorns have a long list of folks still on the payroll and no longer. If the Longhorns lose by 30 points this week to Oklahoma and then lose to either Iowa State or Kansas, Strong could find himself in some trouble.

Maryland’s Randy Edsall has never really endeared himself to the Terrapin community, and the Terps could seek a new coach next year, especially if UM loses to Rutgers and finishes last in the Big Ten East.

While we don’t believe it is possible, there are no rumblings to replace Butch Jones at Tennessee, after the Volunteers blew their third 14-point lead of the season in a loss to Arkansas. Losses to Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Alabama would leave the Vols at 5-7, and in the same boat they were when they fired Derek Dooley after three seasons.

Al Golden is in some hot water at Miami, even though he has had to deal with a lot of sanctions from the previous regime. The Hurricanes should be bowl eligible this year, but this school has not traveled to bowls in large numbers in recent years. Golden probably keeps his job unless the ‘Canes collapse and finish below .500.

Virginia Tech’s Frank Beamer may be sent out to pasture in a manner similar to Bobby Bowden. The Hokies have not contended for ACC honors in recent years, and the fans in Blacksburg are ready for something new. They may get it.

The ole ball coach is not completely safe at South Carolina. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks fell from 11-2 to 7-6 last year and could drop below .500 this year. A homecoming loss to Vanderbilt in two weeks could seal his fate.

With a lot of possible job openings, which Group of 5 coaches appear to be ready to move up to the big time? Let’s take a look league by league.

American Athletic Conference
Justin Fuente is the current darling of the mid-major football world. The Memphis coach has won 12 consecutive games, and the Tigers are now more of a football than basketball school. Fuente comes from the Garry Patterson coaching tree, and he could be the leading candidate should the Iowa State job become available. Memphis fans like to believe that their team can move up to the Big 12 and become big-time, thus being able to keep Fuente, but that is not likely to happen in the next six months, and job openings with his name at the top of the list will be available.

Tommy Tuberville is 61 years old, so a little bit of age discrimination could creep into his attempts to move back to the big time. He begged to get out of Lubbock and took the Cincinnati job as somewhat of a step down from Texas Tech. We could see where Virginia might have an interest in him, after David Cutcliffe has done so well at Duke.
Matt Rhule has done wonders at Temple. Several schools could look toward him. Rhule has NFL experience and could also become a candidate for a couple pro jobs.

East Carolina’s Ruffin McNeill creates a lot of excitement with his wide open offense. The Pirates have consistently averaged 35-40 points per game and have been bowling four of his five seasons in Greenville. ECU is in contention in the East Division this year, and if they win the crown, McNeill could vault above many others for job openings, like at Virginia Tech or Maryland.

Houston’s Tom Herman is a first year head coach. It would be a major surprise to see Herman leave after one year, but if the Cougars run the table and earn the New Year’s Six Bowl allocated to a Group of Five member, he might not ever be this hot of a commodity. The former Urban Meyer assistant could be on the radar of several schools.

Conference USA
Maybe the best recruiter in the land resides in CUSA. Marshall’s Doc Holliday would draw interest from any Big Ten or ACC school with an opening. Holliday might prefer to stay in West Virginia, but the job in Mogantown does not appear to have any openings in the near future.

Jeff Brohm is just in his second season at Western Kentucky, but the Hilltoppers are fun to watch, and they win. WKU went should earn back-to-back bowl games, and Brohm could field multiple offers at the end of the season.
With a last name of “Holtz,” if the team you coach has consistent success, you are going to eventually get an offer to move up. Skip Holtz has produced winners at East Carolina and now at Louisiana Tech. His dad started out small at William & Mary before moving on to five big time schools.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC tends to produce more Power 5 head coaches than any other league, mostly ascending to the Big Ten. There is no shortage of future Power 5 possibiities here. Let’s start with Toledo’s Matt Campbell, who has guided the Rockets to wins over Arkansas and Iowa State this year. He may be the first option at the first Big Ten opening this year.

Rod Carey has done quite well at Northern Illinois despite the Huskies not faring so well this year. Still, Carey has produced 12 and 11-win seasons in Dekalb, and NIU has become the new “Cradle of Coaches.”

Dino Babers is already 2-0 in the Big Ten this year, and Bowling Green hopes to go undefeated in the MAC as well. Babers’ offense is another one of those wide-open high-scoring outfits that fans love to watch.

Mountain West Conference
The Boise State coach is always going to be a hot commodity. Bryan Harsin guided the Broncos to the Fiesta Bowl in his first season in Potatoland, and the Broncos are in contention for another New Year’s Six Bowl again this year.

Former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie has slowly built the New Mexico program up to where the Lobos could sneak into a bowl this year. Davie’s teams have consistently led the nation in rushing among teams not using the triple-option offense. He could be an option at an Iowa State, Virginia, Maryland, or Purdue.

Sun Belt Conference
There are no real candidates in this league at the current time, but should Paul Johnson retire at Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern’s Willie Fritz could be the best option, and we do mean to use “option” as a double entendre. Fritz’s option offense is totally different than the option offenses used at Tech, Army, Navy, or Air Force. He likely will never be a serious candidate at any successful Power 5 program, but at a Georgia Tech, Purdue, Vanderbilt, or Kansas, this type of philosophy could turn things around.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Utah
5 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M
7 Baylor
8 Clemson
9 LSU
10 Northwestern
11 Florida
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Michigan
15 USC
16 Michigan St.
17 Notre Dame
18 Ole Miss
19 Georgia
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Iowa
22 UCLA
23 California
24 West Virginia
25 Houston
26 Boise St.
27 Toledo
28 Temple
29 Memphis
30 BYU
31 Navy
32 Pittsburgh
33 North Carolina
34 Duke
35 Kansas St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Mississippi St.
38 Kentucky
39 Missouri
40 North Carolina St.
41 Texas Tech
42 Wisconsin
43 Arizona St.
44 Oregon
45 Illinois
46 Indiana
47 Arkansas
48 Louisville
49 Miami (Fl.)
50 Penn St.
51 Washington
52 Tennessee
53 Syracuse
54 Ohio
55 Cincinnati
56 East Carolina
57 Boston College
58 Minnesota
59 Georgia Southern
60 Marshall
61 Auburn
62 Arizona
63 Air Force
64 Louisiana Tech
65 Georgia Tech
66 Nebraska
67 Bowling Green
68 Appalachian St.
69 Tulsa
70 South Carolina
71 Virginia Tech
72 Utah St.
73 Iowa St.
74 Oregon St.
75 Colorado
76 Vanderbilt
77 Central Michigan
78 Wake Forest
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas
81 Northern Illinois
82 Washington St.
83 Virginia
84 Southern Miss.
85 Arkansas St.
86 Ball St.
87 Akron
88 Connecticut
89 Western Michigan
90 Maryland
91 San Jose St.
92 South Alabama
93 Rutgers
94 Colorado St.
95 San Diego St.
96 Massachusetts
97 Buffalo
98 Purdue
99 UNLV
100 New Mexico
101 Rice
102 South Florida
103 Nevada
104 Kent St.
105 Florida Int’l
106 UL-Monroe
107 Hawaii
108 Tulane
109 Army
110 UL-Lafayette
111 Troy
112 UT-San Antonio
113 Texas St.
114 SMU
115 Old Dominion
116 Fresno St.
117 Eastern Michigan
118 Florida Atlantic
119 Central Florida
120 Idaho
121 Miami (O)
122 UTEP
123 Kansas
124 Charlotte
125 Georgia St.
126 North Texas
127 New Mexico St.
128 Wyoming

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 128.8 121.3 129.7 126.6
2 Alabama 127.4 125.3 126.8 126.5
3 TCU 129.1 120.0 130.2 126.4
4 Baylor 126.4 122.7 127.3 125.5
5 USC 124.9 121.5 125.3 123.9
6 Utah 125.7 119.9 125.1 123.6
7 Oklahoma 122.8 120.0 123.3 122.0
8 Notre Dame 123.0 119.4 123.3 121.9
9 Ole Miss 124.4 117.8 122.3 121.5
10 Stanford 121.2 120.0 121.2 120.8
11 LSU 122.0 118.6 121.6 120.7
12 Texas A&M 120.9 118.7 120.0 119.9
13 UCLA 121.5 115.0 119.3 118.6
14 Georgia 121.3 113.8 120.4 118.5
15 Tennessee 118.7 114.1 118.1 117.0
16 Clemson 116.1 117.0 116.2 116.4
17 Georgia Tech 117.7 114.7 116.9 116.4
18 Michigan 117.3 113.6 117.1 116.0
19 Oregon 118.6 111.3 118.0 116.0
20 Arkansas 118.2 112.4 117.4 116.0
21 Florida 116.9 113.6 116.8 115.8
22 North Carolina 115.9 115.8 115.7 115.8
23 Boise St. 117.1 112.0 117.0 115.4
24 California 116.7 111.6 116.6 115.0
25 Michigan St. 116.4 112.3 115.7 114.8
26 West Virginia 115.6 110.2 115.0 113.6
27 Florida St. 113.8 114.3 112.4 113.5
28 Arizona St. 115.3 110.3 114.2 113.3
29 Mississippi St. 114.3 110.3 114.2 112.9
30 Auburn 113.3 111.1 112.1 112.2
31 Oklahoma St. 112.3 110.5 112.5 111.8
32 North Carolina St. 110.5 112.3 109.4 110.7
33 Louisville 109.3 112.1 109.9 110.4
34 Wisconsin 109.9 110.9 109.1 110.0
35 Virginia Tech 110.4 108.5 110.5 109.8
36 Missouri 110.7 107.8 110.0 109.5
37 Northwestern 108.7 109.6 108.9 109.1
38 Temple 107.1 109.1 108.2 108.1
39 Iowa 106.4 109.5 107.3 107.7
40 Texas Tech 110.8 101.6 110.7 107.7
41 Nebraska 108.9 106.2 108.1 107.7
42 Miami 106.9 107.3 107.2 107.1
43 Arizona 110.1 102.9 107.9 107.0
44 Pittsburgh 105.1 106.5 106.4 106.0
45 Duke 105.7 105.4 106.3 105.8
46 Kansas St. 109.9 98.7 108.8 105.8
47 Illinois 106.9 104.4 105.7 105.7
48 Western Kentucky 104.8 104.1 106.3 105.1
49 South Carolina 106.9 103.3 105.2 105.1
50 Memphis 104.4 104.8 105.5 104.9
51 BYU 105.1 103.6 105.9 104.9
52 Cincinnati 104.2 104.8 105.5 104.8
53 Houston 101.1 109.2 103.9 104.7
54 Kentucky 105.8 102.4 105.1 104.4
55 Penn St. 103.5 106.1 103.6 104.4
56 Minnesota 105.0 103.5 104.2 104.2
57 Colorado 105.7 100.9 104.8 103.8
58 Washington 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
59 Texas 104.3 101.7 103.7 103.2
60 Boston College 101.4 105.8 99.9 102.4
61 Toledo 101.5 100.2 102.8 101.5
62 Louisiana Tech 101.6 99.7 102.7 101.3
63 Navy 99.6 103.0 100.1 100.9
64 Virginia 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
65 Vanderbilt 100.9 95.8 100.5 99.1
66 Bowling Green 96.8 101.1 98.6 98.8
67 Purdue 99.3 98.9 98.1 98.8
68 Indiana 98.1 99.3 98.2 98.5
69 Middle Tennessee 98.3 97.3 97.9 97.8
70 Washington St. 99.6 94.7 98.3 97.5
71 Appalachian St. 95.6 99.1 97.6 97.4
72 East Carolina 95.8 99.1 96.4 97.1
73 Syracuse 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
74 Georgia Southern 96.0 98.3 96.8 97.0
75 Wake Forest 95.6 99.5 94.7 96.6
76 Utah St. 96.8 95.3 96.9 96.3
77 Western Michigan 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
78 San Diego St. 93.9 99.2 94.8 96.0
79 San Jose St. 94.3 97.5 94.7 95.5
80 Rutgers 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
81 Marshall 95.1 95.6 95.4 95.4
82 Air Force 93.7 98.7 93.4 95.3
83 Ohio 93.2 97.6 94.9 95.2
84 Iowa St. 95.9 92.6 95.1 94.5
85 Northern Illinois 92.7 95.5 93.0 93.7
86 Tulsa 90.9 96.7 92.2 93.3
87 Colorado St. 93.5 91.4 91.9 92.3
88 Oregon St. 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
89 Maryland 92.0 89.4 90.5 90.6
90 South Florida 88.6 94.9 88.3 90.6
91 Massachusetts 88.5 91.9 90.3 90.2
92 Nevada 89.0 93.0 88.4 90.1
93 New Mexico 90.1 90.8 89.2 90.0
94 Southern Mississippi 89.6 90.5 89.3 89.8
95 Florida International 88.4 90.8 90.0 89.7
96 Tulane 89.1 91.7 87.8 89.5
97 Central Florida 87.7 91.0 88.5 89.1
98 Central Michigan 86.9 90.9 89.0 88.9
99 Arkansas St. 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
100 Hawaii 88.0 89.9 88.2 88.7
101 Akron 85.5 91.8 87.2 88.2
102 Buffalo 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
103 Ball St. 85.9 88.6 87.0 87.2
104 SMU 85.3 89.1 85.2 86.5
105 Fresno St. 84.8 90.6 83.1 86.2
106 Rice 83.9 87.6 84.3 85.3
107 Army 81.0 91.6 82.9 85.2
108 Connecticut 83.1 88.5 83.7 85.1
109 Kent St. 83.3 86.1 84.0 84.5
110 UL-Lafayette 82.6 86.0 82.6 83.7
111 UNLV 82.2 84.6 83.1 83.3
112 Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
113 Texas St. 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
114 UT-San Antonio 80.6 83.8 82.0 82.1
115 UL-Monroe 81.9 79.1 81.5 80.8
116 UTEP 79.2 81.8 78.8 79.9
117 South Alabama 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
118 Wyoming 78.4 80.4 77.0 78.6
119 Old Dominion 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
120 Eastern Michigan 74.7 84.2 74.3 77.7
121 Miami (O) 75.3 80.4 75.4 77.0
122 North Texas 74.9 80.6 75.0 76.8
123 Kansas 78.6 72.3 76.3 75.7
124 Troy 74.6 75.0 76.1 75.2
125 Georgia St. 75.4 74.1 75.1 74.9
126 New Mexico St. 73.9 75.2 74.1 74.4
127 Idaho 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
128 Charlotte 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 4-0 107.1 109.1 108.2 108.1
Cincinnati 0-2 3-2 104.2 104.8 105.5 104.8
East Carolina 1-1 3-2 95.8 99.1 96.4 97.1
South Florida 0-1 1-3 88.6 94.9 88.3 90.6
Central Florida 0-1 0-5 87.7 91.0 88.5 89.1
Connecticut 0-1 2-3 83.1 88.5 83.7 85.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-0 5-0 104.4 104.8 105.5 104.9
Houston 1-0 4-0 101.1 109.2 103.9 104.7
Navy 2-0 4-0 99.6 103.0 100.1 100.9
Tulsa 0-1 2-2 90.9 96.7 92.2 93.3
Tulane 1-0 2-2 89.1 91.7 87.8 89.5
SMU 0-1 1-4 85.3 89.1 85.2 86.5
             
AAC Averages     94.7 98.5 95.4 96.2
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 4-0 116.1 117.0 116.2 116.4
Florida St. 2-0 4-0 113.8 114.3 112.4 113.5
North Carolina St. 0-1 4-1 110.5 112.3 109.4 110.7
Louisville 1-1 2-3 109.3 112.1 109.9 110.4
Boston College 0-2 3-2 101.4 105.8 99.9 102.4
Syracuse 1-0 3-1 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
Wake Forest 0-2 2-3 95.6 99.5 94.7 96.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-2 2-3 117.7 114.7 116.9 116.4
North Carolina 1-0 4-1 115.9 115.8 115.7 115.8
Virginia Tech 0-1 2-3 110.4 108.5 110.5 109.8
Miami 0-0 3-1 106.9 107.3 107.2 107.1
Pittsburgh 1-0 3-1 105.1 106.5 106.4 106.0
Duke 2-0 4-1 105.7 105.4 106.3 105.8
Virginia 0-0 1-3 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.2 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 2-0 5-0 129.1 120.0 130.2 126.4
Baylor 1-0 4-0 126.4 122.7 127.3 125.5
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 122.8 120.0 123.3 122.0
West Virginia 0-1 3-1 115.6 110.2 115.0 113.6
Oklahoma St. 2-0 5-0 112.3 110.5 112.5 111.8
Texas Tech 0-2 3-2 110.8 101.6 110.7 107.7
Kansas St. 0-1 3-1 109.9 98.7 108.8 105.8
Texas 0-2 1-4 104.3 101.7 103.7 103.2
Iowa St. 1-0 2-2 95.9 92.6 95.1 94.5
Kansas 0-1 0-4 78.6 72.3 76.3 75.7
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.0 110.3 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 5-0 128.8 121.3 129.7 126.6
Michigan 1-0 4-1 117.3 113.6 117.1 116.0
Michigan St. 1-0 5-0 116.4 112.3 115.7 114.8
Penn St. 1-0 4-1 103.5 106.1 103.6 104.4
Indiana 0-1 4-1 98.1 99.3 98.2 98.5
Rutgers 0-1 2-2 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
Maryland 0-1 2-3 92.0 89.4 90.5 90.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-1 3-2 109.9 110.9 109.1 110.0
Northwestern 1-0 5-0 108.7 109.6 108.9 109.1
Iowa 1-0 5-0 106.4 109.5 107.3 107.7
Nebraska 0-1 2-3 108.9 106.2 108.1 107.7
Illinois 1-0 4-1 106.9 104.4 105.7 105.7
Minnesota 0-1 3-2 105.0 103.5 104.2 104.2
Purdue 0-1 1-4 99.3 98.9 98.1 98.8
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.6 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 2-0 4-1 104.8 104.1 106.3 105.1
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-3 98.3 97.3 97.9 97.8
Marshall 1-0 4-1 95.1 95.6 95.4 95.4
Florida International 0-1 2-3 88.4 90.8 90.0 89.7
Florida Atlantic 1-0 2-3 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
Charlotte 0-2 2-3 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-2 101.6 99.7 102.7 101.3
Southern Mississippi 1-0 3-2 89.6 90.5 89.3 89.8
Rice 1-1 2-3 83.9 87.6 84.3 85.3
UT-San Antonio 1-0 1-4 80.6 83.8 82.0 82.1
UTEP 0-1 2-3 79.2 81.8 78.8 79.9
North Texas 0-2 0-4 74.9 80.6 75.0 76.8
             
CUSA Averages     86.4 88.5 86.8 87.3
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-1 123.0 119.4 123.3 121.9
BYU   3-2 105.1 103.6 105.9 104.9
Army   1-4 81.0 91.6 82.9 85.2
             
Independents Averages     103.0 104.9 104.0 104.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 1-0 3-2 96.8 101.1 98.6 98.8
Ohio 1-0 4-1 93.2 97.6 94.9 95.2
Massachusetts 0-0 1-3 88.5 91.9 90.3 90.2
Akron 0-1 2-3 85.5 91.8 87.2 88.2
Buffalo 0-1 2-3 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
Kent St. 1-0 2-3 83.3 86.1 84.0 84.5
Miami (O) 0-1 1-4 75.3 80.4 75.4 77.0
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 1-0 4-0 101.5 100.2 102.8 101.5
Western Michigan 0-0 1-3 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
Northern Illinois 0-1 2-3 92.7 95.5 93.0 93.7
Central Michigan 1-0 2-3 86.9 90.9 89.0 88.9
Ball St. 1-1 2-3 85.9 88.6 87.0 87.2
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-4 74.7 84.2 74.3 77.7
             
MAC Averages     88.0 91.9 89.3 89.7
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 1-0 4-1 117.1 112.0 117.0 115.4
Utah St. 1-0 2-2 96.8 95.3 96.9 96.3
Air Force 1-0 2-2 93.7 98.7 93.4 95.3
Colorado St. 0-1 2-3 93.5 91.4 91.9 92.3
New Mexico 1-0 3-2 90.1 90.8 89.2 90.0
Wyoming 0-1 0-5 78.4 80.4 77.0 78.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 2-3 93.9 99.2 94.8 96.0
San Jose St. 1-1 2-3 94.3 97.5 94.7 95.5
Nevada 0-1 2-3 89.0 93.0 88.4 90.1
Hawaii 0-1 2-3 88.0 89.9 88.2 88.7
Fresno St. 0-2 1-4 84.8 90.6 83.1 86.2
UNLV 1-0 2-3 82.2 84.6 83.1 83.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 3-0 4-1 121.2 120.0 121.2 120.8
Oregon 1-1 3-2 118.6 111.3 118.0 116.0
California 2-0 5-0 116.7 111.6 116.6 115.0
Washington 0-1 2-2 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
Washington St. 0-1 2-2 99.6 94.7 98.3 97.5
Oregon St. 0-1 2-2 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 1-1 3-1 124.9 121.5 125.3 123.9
Utah 1-0 4-0 125.7 119.9 125.1 123.6
UCLA 1-1 4-1 121.5 115.0 119.3 118.6
Arizona St. 1-1 3-2 115.3 110.3 114.2 113.3
Arizona 0-2 3-2 110.1 102.9 107.9 107.0
Colorado 0-1 3-2 105.7 100.9 104.8 103.8
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.5 112.3 111.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-1 4-1 121.3 113.8 120.4 118.5
Tennessee 0-2 2-3 118.7 114.1 118.1 117.0
Florida 3-0 5-0 116.9 113.6 116.8 115.8
Missouri 1-1 4-1 110.7 107.8 110.0 109.5
South Carolina 0-3 2-3 106.9 103.3 105.2 105.1
Kentucky 2-1 4-1 105.8 102.4 105.1 104.4
Vanderbilt 0-2 2-3 100.9 95.8 100.5 99.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 1-1 4-1 127.4 125.3 126.8 126.5
Ole Miss 2-1 4-1 124.4 117.8 122.3 121.5
LSU 2-0 4-0 122.0 118.6 121.6 120.7
Texas A&M 2-0 5-0 120.9 118.7 120.0 119.9
Arkansas 1-1 2-3 118.2 112.4 117.4 116.0
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 114.3 110.3 114.2 112.9
Auburn 0-2 3-2 113.3 111.1 112.1 112.2
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.8 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 3-1 95.6 99.1 97.6 97.4
Georgia Southern 2-0 4-1 96.0 98.3 96.8 97.0
Arkansas St. 1-0 2-3 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-3 82.6 86.0 82.6 83.7
Texas St. 0-0 1-3 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
UL-Monroe 0-1 1-3 81.9 79.1 81.5 80.8
South Alabama 1-0 3-2 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
Troy 0-1 1-3 74.6 75.0 76.1 75.2
Georgia St. 1-0 1-3 75.4 74.1 75.1 74.9
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-4 73.9 75.2 74.1 74.4
Idaho 0-2 1-4 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.5 83.8 82.2 82.5

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, October 8        
Houston SMU 18.3 22.6 21.2
USC Washington 23.9 22.5 23.8
         
Friday, October 9        
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.5 8.1 9.1
Virginia Tech North Carolina St. 2.9 -0.8 4.1
         
Saturday, October 10        
Army Duke -22.2 -11.3 -20.9
Ole Miss New Mexico St. 53.5 45.6 51.2
LSU South Carolina 17.6 17.8 18.9
Florida Int’l UTEP 11.7 11.5 13.7
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 9.0 9.3 10.9
Iowa Illinois 2.5 8.1 4.6
Kansas Baylor -44.8 -47.4 -48.0
Texas (N) Oklahoma -18.5 -18.3 -19.6
Ohio St. Maryland 39.8 34.9 42.2
Penn St. Indiana 8.4 9.8 8.4
Temple Tulane 20.5 19.9 22.9
Western Michigan Central Michigan 11.1 6.4 10.2
Pittsburgh Virginia 7.0 11.5 9.2
Ohio Miami (O) 19.9 19.2 21.5
Bowling Green Massachusetts 10.8 11.7 10.8
Florida Atlantic Rice 0.3 0.6 0.3
Boston College Wake Forest 8.8 9.3 8.2
Eastern Michigan Akron -8.8 -5.6 -10.9
Toledo Kent St. 20.2 16.1 20.8
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -18.2 -23.0 -20.5
Northern Illinois Ball St. 9.3 9.4 8.5
Clemson Georgia Tech 0.9 4.8 1.8
Tennessee Georgia 0.4 3.3 0.7
South Florida Syracuse -4.4 -1.8 -4.3
Notre Dame Navy 26.4 19.4 26.2
Michigan Northwestern 11.6 7.0 11.2
Nebraska Wisconsin 2.0 -1.7 2.0
Purdue Minnesota -3.2 -2.1 -3.6
Texas Tech Iowa St. 17.9 12.0 18.6
Central Florida Connecticut 7.1 5.0 7.3
Arizona Oregon St. 20.1 14.5 18.8
Mississippi St. Troy 42.7 38.3 41.1
Oregon Washington St. 22.0 19.6 22.7
Tulsa Louisiana-Monroe 12.0 20.6 13.7
Colorado St. Boise St. -20.6 -17.6 -22.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas St. 3.9 3.4 4.2
Nevada New Mexico 1.4 4.7 1.7
Alabama Arkansas 12.2 15.9 12.4
Texas-San Antonio Louisiana Tech -18.5 -13.6 -18.2
West Virginia Oklahoma St. 6.3 2.7 5.5
Kansas St. TCU -16.2 -18.3 -18.4
Missouri Florida -3.2 -2.8 -3.8
BYU East Carolina 12.8 8.0 12.0
Florida St. Miami (Fl.) 8.9 9.0 7.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -16.6 -15.8 -18.1
UNLV San Jose St. -9.6 -10.4 -9.1
Arizona St. Colorado 12.6 12.4 12.4
Utah California 12.0 11.3 11.5
Air Force Wyoming 17.3 20.3 18.4
Fresno St. Utah St. -9.5 -2.2 -11.3
Hawaii San Diego St. -1.9 -5.3 -2.6
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 6 PiRate    
North Texas Portland St. -7    

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. UL-Lafayette
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Oregon vs. Boise St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Miami (FL) * vs. Ohio U
Poinsettia MWC Army San Diego St. vs. Minnesota *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Bowling Green
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. BYU
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Florida Int’l.
Sun ACC Pac-12 Duke vs. Arizona St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Western Mich. * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC Mississippi St. vs. N. Carolina St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. California
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Illinois vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. West Virginia
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Middle Tennessee *
Belk ACC SEC Louisville vs. Florida
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Baylor vs. Notre Dame
Cotton Playoff Playoff Stanford vs. LSU
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Michigan
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC Alabama vs. TCU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Utah
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Oklahoma vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Boston College * vs. San Jose St. *
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Stanford vs. Michigan
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

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