The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 28, 2015

College Football Preview: October 1-3, 2015

Bowl Me Over
As Autumn leaves begin to turn orange and red, it’s time for the PiRate Ratings to get into the playoff and bowl talk. Unlike most sites where experts give out bowl projections, we try to look forward to the remaining schedules and place teams according to their recent form holding true the rest of the year.

For example, over the weekend, both Ohio State and Michigan State for the second consecutive week appeared not to be as strong as they were supposed to be. Meanwhile, Michigan looked like the Wolverines of the Bo Schembechler 1970’s. Thus, for this opening week, we are picking the Maize and Blue to run the table, knocking off both the Spartans and Buckeyes (both home games) to win the Big Ten title. With their lone loss coming at Utah, a team that looks strong enough to challenge UCLA and Stanford for the Pac-12 title, we have Jim Harbaugh’s team selected to occupy a playoff spot in our first edition; notice that this differs from the PiRate Rating playoff ratings, which simply takes the top four PiRate Rating teams and apply it to the Playoff rules.

For those readers that need a refresher course on the 2015-16 College Football Playoff format, there are four teams in the playoff. The four teams are seeded one through four, with the top seed earning a bid to either the Cotton or Orange Bowl, whichever is more advantageous to that team. The number one seed plays the number four seed, while the number two seed plays the number three seed in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. The winners of the Cotton and Orange Bowl advance to the National Championship Game, which will be played in Glendale, Arizona, on January 11.
The two playoff games plus four other top-tier bowls comprise what is called “The New Year’s Six” bowls. These four other bowls not in the playoffs include the Peach, Sugar, Fiesta, and Rose Bowls. Among the eight teams playing in these four bowls, a guarantee has been made that at least one team not from one of the Power conferences will receive an invitation. The Power conferences are the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC. The non power conferences, known as “The Group of 5,” are the American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, and Sun Belt Conference.

After the New Year’s Six Bowls are filled, the remaining 33 bowls select teams based on contractual agreements with conferences. There was supposed to be one additional bowl this year, in Tucson, Arizona, but lack of a title sponsor and other issues forced this bowl to try again next year.

With 39 total bowls plus the National Championship Game, 78 teams will play in the postseason. As of this writing, our crystal ball shows that exactly 78 teams will be bowl eligible this year. Our bowl projections follow our PiRate Ratings Spreads for this week’s games.

Exciting Games This Week
October usually means more conference games and less FBS versus FCS games (just two of those this week). Early October presents so many games of interest, because so many teams finish September looking like contenders. By the middle of this month, only a quarter of those teams in contention for conference championships this now will still be in contention. Thus, you get a high number of meaningful and/or interesting contests. Here are the games we like best this week.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech–Noon EDT on ESPN3: The ACC Coastal Division race is wide open with six of the seven teams closely matched. Pittsburgh had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Lane Stadium, while Virginia Tech took it on the chin at East Carolina last week. Rumors are running rampant that Hokies’ coach Frank Beamer is now firmly on a hot seat, and calling the ECU loss just an “exhibition game” did not sit well with the fans.

South Carolina at Missouri–Noon EDT on WatchESPN: This could be a bowl elimination game. South Carolina is already 0-2 in the SEC and out of the East Division race. Missouri lost at Kentucky last week, and a home loss to the Gamecocks could send the Tigers crashing to seven or eight losses.

Iowa at Wisconsin–Noon EDT on ESPN: The Big Ten conference races begin this week, and the West Division is wide open. Wisconsin appears to be a little weaker than last season, while Iowa is off to a brilliant 4-0 start, but against a mostly untested slate of opponents. A road win would validate the Hawkeyes, while Badger win would simply give UW a one-game lead in the standings with both teams still in the race.

Minnesota at Northwestern–Noon EDT on Big Ten Network: We could say the same thing about every Big Ten game in week one of conference play. Northwestern struggled in a narrow win over Ball State last week, while Minnesota was very lucky to escape with a home win over Ohio. NU owns a win over Stanford and a road win against Duke, so the Wildcats have a resume good enough to stay in the playoff race if they can continue to win. The Gophers look like a team that could be getting ready to drown in the lake. UM can make a statement by pulling off the upset, while NU could move into the Top 15 with an impressive win.

West Virginia at Oklahoma–Noon EDT on FoxSports 1: Two 3-0 ranked teams square off in the conference opener for both. We are high on the Sooners so far, and an impressive double-digit win in this game may propel OU above TCU and Baylor in the minds of some on the Selection Committee. A WVU upset in Norman could send the Mountaineers to Baylor at 5-0 two weeks later.

Houston at Tulsa–Noon EDT on CBSSN: If the season ended today, Houston would not be the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl choice among the Group of Five conferences. However, the Cougars may have the best shot of running the table of the five or six teams in contention. The Cougars, under first year head coach and former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman, have won at Louisville, and a win in Tulsa Saturday would leave UH with three future road games against weak competition. All the other tough games are at home. Don’t count the Golden Hurrican out in this one; they had an extra week to prepare after giving Oklahoma fits two weeks ago.

Air Force at Navy–3:30 PM EDT on CBSSN: Not much needs to be said here; it’s a service academy rivalry, but a Midshipmen win would send Navy to South Bend next week at 4-0.

Alabama at Georgia–3:30 PM EDT on CBS: Alabama has not been an underdog since Tim Tebow was quarterbacking Florida. The Tide go to Athens this week as the underdog for the first time in 72 games! That 2009 underdog merely won that game by 19 points and then took the National Championship. This Alabama team does not have 28 future NFL draft picks like the 2009 National Champions. Georgia does not play Alabama in the regular season that often. The last time the Dogs beat the Tide was 2007, and UGA won the Sugar Bowl that year. The previous win before 2007 was in 2002, and UGA won the Sugar Bowl that year as well. If Georgia wins, Alabama then must win out to have any chance of making it to the SEC Championship Game. If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs can already start to smell an extra game down in Atlanta in early December.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State–4:00 PM EDT on FoxSports 1: The winner of this game stays undefeated and the dark horse team behind TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma.

Ole Miss at Florida–7:00 PM EDT on ESPN: After winning at Alabama, Ole Miss came out flat last week in an unspectacular home win over Vanderbilt, while Florida pulled out a last second thriller win over rival Tennessee. The Gators figure to be the team coming out a bit flat, and if the Rebels revert to form, they could leave Gainesville Saturday night firmly entrenched as one of the top four teams if not number one. If the Gators can pull off another big win, they should go to Baton Rouge in two weeks still undefeated. This game has major playoff repercussions for both teams.

Arkansas at Tennessee–7:00 PM EDT on ESPN2: This is almost assuredly a bowl elimination game. We can see no way that the loser of this game will finish better than 5-7, and even the winner of this game still faces a tough road ahead in what must be called the Disappointment Classic. Additionally, the losing coach in this game may be in serious trouble when they end up below .500 this year.

Arizona State at UCLA–7:30 PM EDT on Fox: Generally, the Pac-12 winner has an experienced at talented junior or senior quarterback leading the team. UCLA has a true freshman, but Josh Rosen’s field smarts may be more similar to Andrew Luck than a true freshman. Throw in one of the best coaches in Jim Mora, Jr., and the Bruins are definitely one of three teams capable of playing in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. Arizona State will come into this game out for blood after suffering a humiliating home loss to USC.

Notre Dame at Clemson–8:00 PM EDT on ABC: The last time an undefeated and highly-ranked Clemson team hosted another undefeated and highly-ranked opponent on the ABC Saturday night prime-time game, the Tigers were sky high as the nation watched one of the greatest pre-game rituals. Clemson then laid a huge egg in a 51-14 loss to Florida State. Notre Dame’s four wins don’t look all that impressive now that both Texas and Georgia Tech have proven to be mediocre, while the Irish’s other two wins (Virginia and Massachusetts) were no Picassos. Any of the next four teams on ND’s schedule could end their Playoff hopes for this season. If the Irish go 4-0 in October, they deserve to be one of the top four teams entering November.

Michigan at Maryland–8:00 PM EDT on Big Ten Network: This game interests us differently than the others here. Maryland is not interesting in and of themselves. After losing the opener at Utah, which now looks a lot better than it did in week one, Michigan has begun to look like the old power team of the decade between 1969 and 1978. The shutout of BYU was spectacular. But, can the Wolverines follow that up with a repeat on the road? If so, then the way the Big Two in the East are playing in the last two weeks, it would not surprise us if Jim Harbaugh can repeat what Bo Schembechler did in his first season in A2. November 22, 1969, was a dark day for fans from that state down south. What was considered the best Ohio State team ever, an unbeatable 8-0 team that destroyed everybody else on the schedule, fell to a heavily underdog Wolverine team.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Starting this week, we debut our new Retrodictive Ratings. These ratings are our version of a poll. We do not use them for comparing two teams with a power rating. This is simply a ranking of teams similar to the top 25 weekly poll. You will find our new Retrodictive Ranking at Ken Massey’s College Football Ranking Composite. Ken does a great job at this site, so we encourage you to support his efforts. http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Here is our first Retrodictive Ranking.

PiRate Retrodictive
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 Baylor
4 TCU
5 LSU
6 UCLA
7 Notre Dame
8 Georgia
9 Utah
10 Oklahoma
11 Alabama
12 USC
13 Texas A&M
14 Michigan St.
15 California
16 Clemson
17 Michigan
18 Stanford
19 West Virginia
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina St.
22 Wisconsin
23 Mississippi St.
24 Florida
25 Boise St.
26 Oklahoma St.
27 Miami
28 Texas Tech
29 Oregon
30 Temple
31 Georgia Tech
32 Tennessee
33 Penn St.
34 Northwestern
35 Kentucky
36 Iowa
37 Duke
38 Minnesota
39 Virginia Tech
40 Arizona
41 Missouri
42 Arizona St.
43 North Carolina
44 Illinois
45 Memphis
46 Pittsburgh
47 Kansas St.
48 South Carolina
49 BYU
50 Arkansas
51 Auburn
52 Louisville
53 Nebraska
54 Houston
55 Washington
56 Colorado
57 Cincinnati
58 Western Kentucky
59 Boston College
60 Toledo
61 Louisiana Tech
62 Navy
63 Texas
64 Virginia
65 Bowling Green
66 Middle Tennessee
67 Indiana
68 Vanderbilt
69 Appalachian St.
70 Syracuse
71 Purdue
72 Air Force
73 Western Michigan
74 Washington St.
75 Georgia Southern
76 Wake Forest
77 Northern Illinois
78 San Diego St.
79 Rutgers
80 Utah St.
81 Ohio
82 Marshall
83 East Carolina
84 Iowa St.
85 San Jose St.
86 Tulsa
87 Colorado St.
88 Nevada
89 Hawaii
90 Oregon St.
91 Maryland
92 Florida International
93 Central Florida
94 New Mexico
95 South Florida
96 Massachusetts
97 Arkansas St.
98 SMU
99 Rice
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Southern Mississippi
103 Ball St.
104 Central Michigan
105 Buffalo
106 Fresno St.
107 Kent St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Connecticut
110 Army
111 Florida Atlantic
112 Texas St.
113 UTEP
114 UL-Monroe
115 UNLV
116 UT-San Antonio
117 North Texas
118 South Alabama
119 Old Dominion
120 Wyoming
121 Miami (O)
122 Kansas
123 Troy
124 Eastern Michigan
125 Georgia St.
126 New Mexico St.
127 Idaho
128 Charlotte

This Week’s PiRate Ratings (The Regular Ones)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 131.6 123.3 132.2 129.0
2 Ole Miss 128.6 122.0 126.8 125.8
3 Baylor 124.9 121.4 125.6 124.0
4 TCU 126.8 116.4 127.6 123.6
5 LSU 124.5 121.1 124.1 123.2
6 Alabama 123.9 122.0 123.1 123.0
7 USC 123.8 120.4 124.2 122.8
8 Notre Dame 123.5 119.7 124.0 122.4
9 UCLA 124.7 118.4 122.9 122.0
10 Utah 124.1 118.3 123.5 122.0
11 Georgia 124.5 116.8 123.8 121.7
12 Oklahoma 121.2 118.4 121.5 120.4
13 Texas A&M 120.3 118.2 119.2 119.2
14 Georgia Tech 119.9 116.8 119.3 118.7
15 Tennessee 119.9 115.6 119.5 118.3
16 Stanford 118.2 117.0 118.2 117.8
17 Michigan St. 118.3 114.2 118.1 116.9
18 California 117.8 113.0 118.2 116.3
19 Clemson 115.4 116.5 115.3 115.7
20 Oregon 118.0 110.2 117.2 115.1
21 Arkansas 117.5 111.4 116.5 115.1
22 Michigan 116.3 112.5 115.9 114.9
23 West Virginia 116.8 111.4 116.4 114.9
24 Florida St. 115.0 115.3 113.7 114.7
25 Auburn 115.4 112.9 114.3 114.2
26 North Carolina 113.4 113.4 113.0 113.3
27 Mississippi St. 114.4 110.3 114.5 113.1
28 Boise St. 114.6 109.2 114.3 112.7
29 Oklahoma St. 112.3 112.6 112.8 112.6
30 North Carolina St. 111.8 113.9 111.1 112.3
31 Wisconsin 111.5 112.4 110.7 111.5
32 Virginia Tech 112.2 109.6 112.4 111.4
33 Florida 112.2 108.9 111.8 111.0
34 Arizona St. 112.1 106.9 110.6 109.9
35 Arizona 112.8 105.6 110.6 109.7
36 Miami 109.0 109.9 109.5 109.5
37 Texas Tech 112.0 102.6 112.1 108.9
38 Louisville 107.9 110.4 108.1 108.8
39 Missouri 110.1 107.1 109.2 108.8
40 Temple 107.3 109.4 108.6 108.4
41 Nebraska 109.0 106.3 108.2 107.8
42 Minnesota 107.9 106.5 107.6 107.3
43 Penn St. 105.8 108.1 106.1 106.7
44 Texas 106.8 105.5 106.5 106.3
45 Duke 106.0 105.4 106.8 106.1
46 Kentucky 107.3 103.9 106.6 105.9
47 Iowa 104.5 107.7 105.4 105.9
48 Northwestern 105.7 106.5 105.4 105.9
49 South Carolina 107.5 104.0 106.0 105.8
50 BYU 105.9 103.8 107.0 105.6
51 Illinois 106.7 104.2 105.5 105.5
52 Memphis 104.9 104.8 106.3 105.3
53 Pittsburgh 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
54 Kansas St. 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
55 Colorado 106.0 101.7 105.3 104.3
56 Houston 100.3 108.3 103.0 103.9
57 Washington 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
58 Cincinnati 102.1 102.2 103.2 102.5
59 Western Kentucky 102.1 100.7 103.4 102.1
60 Boston College 100.8 105.5 99.1 101.8
61 Toledo 101.3 99.6 102.5 101.1
62 Louisiana Tech 101.1 98.3 102.0 100.5
63 Navy 98.1 101.3 98.5 99.3
64 Virginia 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
65 Bowling Green 97.0 101.1 98.8 99.0
66 Middle Tennessee 98.8 98.5 98.7 98.7
67 Vanderbilt 100.3 94.5 99.6 98.1
68 Appalachian St. 96.1 99.8 98.5 98.1
69 Syracuse 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
70 Purdue 97.4 97.0 95.7 96.7
71 Air Force 94.8 100.0 94.6 96.5
72 Indiana 95.6 97.6 95.4 96.2
73 Western Michigan 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
74 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
75 Georgia Southern 94.7 97.4 95.4 95.8
76 Wake Forest 94.7 98.8 93.7 95.7
77 Northern Illinois 94.6 97.4 95.0 95.7
78 San Diego St. 93.6 98.6 94.5 95.6
79 Rutgers 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
80 Utah St. 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
81 Ohio 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
82 Marshall 95.0 94.8 95.4 95.1
83 East Carolina 93.2 96.5 93.6 94.4
84 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
85 San Jose St. 92.7 96.2 93.0 94.0
86 Tulsa 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
87 Colorado St. 94.7 92.6 93.1 93.5
88 Nevada 91.3 95.3 90.9 92.5
89 Hawaii 91.5 93.7 91.9 92.4
90 Oregon St. 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
91 Maryland 93.2 90.7 91.9 91.9
92 Florida International 89.5 91.9 91.3 90.9
93 Central Florida 89.2 92.7 90.6 90.8
94 New Mexico 90.7 91.6 90.1 90.8
95 South Florida 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
96 Massachusetts 87.4 90.8 89.0 89.1
97 Arkansas St. 88.9 88.4 89.6 89.0
98 SMU 87.6 91.4 87.7 88.9
99 Rice 86.6 91.0 87.2 88.3
100 Tulane 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
101 Akron 85.2 91.5 86.8 87.8
102 Southern Mississippi 87.8 88.3 87.2 87.8
103 Ball St. 86.0 89.1 87.2 87.4
104 Central Michigan 85.3 89.3 87.3 87.3
105 Buffalo 83.9 91.3 86.4 87.2
106 Fresno St. 85.6 91.7 83.9 87.1
107 Kent St. 83.5 86.2 84.4 84.7
108 UL-Lafayette 83.1 87.4 83.3 84.6
109 Connecticut 82.0 88.0 82.3 84.1
110 Army 79.2 90.1 80.9 83.4
111 Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
112 Texas St. 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
113 UTEP 81.5 84.3 81.3 82.4
114 UL-Monroe 83.1 79.9 82.8 81.9
115 UNLV 80.2 82.6 80.9 81.2
116 UT-San Antonio 78.3 81.3 79.5 79.7
117 North Texas 77.2 83.3 77.6 79.4
118 South Alabama 75.4 83.2 77.0 78.5
119 Old Dominion 76.6 83.0 75.4 78.3
120 Wyoming 77.9 79.7 76.1 77.9
121 Miami (O) 75.1 80.3 75.0 76.8
122 Kansas 79.1 72.8 77.1 76.3
123 Troy 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
124 Eastern Michigan 72.7 82.2 72.3 75.7
125 Georgia St. 75.7 74.4 75.4 75.2
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.7 73.5 73.9
127 Idaho 70.4 78.3 71.7 73.5
128 Charlotte 69.0 71.0 68.7 69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 3-0 107.3 109.4 108.6 108.4
Cincinnati 0-2 2-2 102.1 102.2 103.2 102.5
East Carolina 0-1 2-2 93.2 96.5 93.6 94.4
Central Florida 0-0 0-4 89.2 92.7 90.6 90.8
South Florida 0-0 2-2 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
Connecticut 0-1 2-2 82.0 88.0 82.3 84.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 1-0 4-0 104.9 104.8 106.3 105.3
Houston 0-0 3-0 100.3 108.3 103.0 103.9
Navy 2-0 3-0 98.1 101.3 98.5 99.3
Tulsa 0-0 2-1 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
SMU 0-0 1-3 87.6 91.4 87.7 88.9
Tulane 0-0 1-2 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
             
AAC Averages     94.4 98.1 95.0 95.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 115.4 116.5 115.3 115.7
Florida St. 1-0 3-0 115.0 115.3 113.7 114.7
North Carolina St. 0-0 4-0 111.8 113.9 111.1 112.3
Louisville 0-1 1-3 107.9 110.4 108.1 108.8
Boston College 0-1 3-1 100.8 105.5 99.1 101.8
Syracuse 1-0 3-1 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
Wake Forest 0-1 2-2 94.7 98.8 93.7 95.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-1 2-2 119.9 116.8 119.3 118.7
North Carolina 0-0 3-1 113.4 113.4 113.0 113.3
Virginia Tech 0-0 2-2 112.2 109.6 112.4 111.4
Miami 0-0 3-0 109.0 109.9 109.5 109.5
Duke 1-0 3-1 106.0 105.4 106.8 106.1
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-1 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
Virginia 0-0 1-3 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
             
ACC Averages     107.6 108.5 107.3 107.8
             
Big 12 Conference
Team  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 0-0 3-0 124.9 121.4 125.6 124.0
TCU 1-0 4-0 126.8 116.4 127.6 123.6
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 121.2 118.4 121.5 120.4
West Virginia 0-0 3-0 116.8 111.4 116.4 114.9
Oklahoma St. 1-0 4-0 112.3 112.6 112.8 112.6
Texas Tech 0-1 3-1 112.0 102.6 112.1 108.9
Texas 0-1 1-3 106.8 105.5 106.5 106.3
Kansas St. 0-0 3-0 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
Iowa St. 0-0 1-2 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
Kansas 0-0 0-3 79.1 72.8 77.1 76.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 4-0 131.6 123.3 132.2 129.0
Michigan St. 0-0 4-0 118.3 114.2 118.1 116.9
Michigan 0-0 3-1 116.3 112.5 115.9 114.9
Penn St. 1-0 3-1 105.8 108.1 106.1 106.7
Indiana 0-0 4-0 95.6 97.6 95.4 96.2
Rutgers 0-1 2-2 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
Maryland 0-0 2-2 93.2 90.7 91.9 91.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-1 111.5 112.4 110.7 111.5
Nebraska 0-0 2-2 109.0 106.3 108.2 107.8
Minnesota 0-0 3-1 107.9 106.5 107.6 107.3
Northwestern 0-0 4-0 105.7 106.5 105.4 105.9
Iowa 0-0 4-0 104.5 107.7 105.4 105.9
Illinois 0-0 3-1 106.7 104.2 105.5 105.5
Purdue 0-0 1-3 97.4 97.0 95.7 96.7
             
Big Ten Averages     107.2 105.8 106.7 106.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 1-0 3-1 102.1 100.7 103.4 102.1
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 98.8 98.5 98.7 98.7
Marshall 0-0 3-1 95.0 94.8 95.4 95.1
Florida International 0-1 2-2 89.5 91.9 91.3 90.9
Florida Atlantic 1-0 1-3 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 76.6 83.0 75.4 78.3
Charlotte 0-2 2-2 69.0 71.0 68.7 69.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 1-1 2-2 101.1 98.3 102.0 100.5
Rice 1-0 2-2 86.6 91.0 87.2 88.3
Southern Mississippi 0-0 2-2 87.8 88.3 87.2 87.8
UTEP 0-0 2-2 81.5 84.3 81.3 82.4
UT-San Antonio 0-0 0-4 78.3 81.3 79.5 79.7
North Texas 0-1 0-3 77.2 83.3 77.6 79.4
             
CUSA Averages     86.6 88.6 86.9 87.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-0 123.5 119.7 124.0 122.4
BYU   2-2 105.9 103.8 107.0 105.6
Army   1-3 79.2 90.1 80.9 83.4
             
Independents Averages     102.9 104.5 104.0 103.8
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 2-2 97.0 101.1 98.8 99.0
Ohio 0-0 3-1 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
Massachusetts 0-0 0-3 87.4 90.8 89.0 89.1
Akron 0-0 2-2 85.2 91.5 86.8 87.8
Buffalo 0-0 2-2 83.9 91.3 86.4 87.2
Kent St. 0-0 1-3 83.5 86.2 84.4 84.7
Miami (O) 0-0 1-3 75.1 80.3 75.0 76.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-0 101.3 99.6 102.5 101.1
Western Michigan 0-0 1-3 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 94.6 97.4 95.0 95.7
Ball St. 1-0 2-2 86.0 89.1 87.2 87.4
Central Michigan 0-0 1-3 85.3 89.3 87.3 87.3
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-3 72.7 82.2 72.3 75.7
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 3-1 114.6 109.2 114.3 112.7
Air Force 1-0 2-1 94.8 100.0 94.6 96.5
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
Colorado St. 0-0 2-2 94.7 92.6 93.1 93.5
New Mexico 1-0 2-2 90.7 91.6 90.1 90.8
Wyoming 0-1 0-4 77.9 79.7 76.1 77.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-3 93.6 98.6 94.5 95.6
San Jose St. 1-1 2-2 92.7 96.2 93.0 94.0
Nevada 0-0 2-2 91.3 95.3 90.9 92.5
Hawaii 0-0 2-2 91.5 93.7 91.9 92.4
Fresno St. 0-1 1-3 85.6 91.7 83.9 87.1
UNLV 0-0 1-3 80.2 82.6 80.9 81.2
             
MWC Averages     92.0 93.8 91.6 92.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 2-0 3-1 118.2 117.0 118.2 117.8
California 1-0 4-0 117.8 113.0 118.2 116.3
Oregon 0-1 2-2 118.0 110.2 117.2 115.1
Washington 0-1 2-2 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
Washington St. 0-0 2-1 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
Oregon St. 0-1 2-2 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 1-1 3-1 123.8 120.4 124.2 122.8
UCLA 1-0 4-0 124.7 118.4 122.9 122.0
Utah 1-0 4-0 124.1 118.3 123.5 122.0
Arizona St. 0-1 2-2 112.1 106.9 110.6 109.9
Arizona 0-1 3-1 112.8 105.6 110.6 109.7
Colorado 0-0 3-1 106.0 101.7 105.3 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     112.8 108.2 112.0 111.0
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 4-0 124.5 116.8 123.8 121.7
Tennessee 0-1 2-2 119.9 115.6 119.5 118.3
Florida 2-0 4-0 112.2 108.9 111.8 111.0
Missouri 0-1 3-1 110.1 107.1 109.2 108.8
Kentucky 2-1 3-1 107.3 103.9 106.6 105.9
South Carolina 0-2 2-2 107.5 104.0 106.0 105.8
Vanderbilt 0-2 1-3 100.3 94.5 99.6 98.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 2-0 4-0 128.6 122.0 126.8 125.8
LSU 2-0 3-0 124.5 121.1 124.1 123.2
Alabama 0-1 3-1 123.9 122.0 123.1 123.0
Texas A&M 1-0 4-0 120.3 118.2 119.2 119.2
Arkansas 0-1 1-3 117.5 111.4 116.5 115.1
Auburn 0-2 2-2 115.4 112.9 114.3 114.2
Mississippi St. 1-1 3-1 114.4 110.3 114.5 113.1
             
SEC Averages     116.2 112.1 115.4 114.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 2-1 96.1 99.8 98.5 98.1
Georgia Southern 1-0 3-1 94.7 97.4 95.4 95.8
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-3 88.9 88.4 89.6 89.0
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-2 83.1 87.4 83.3 84.6
Texas St. 0-0 1-3 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
UL-Monroe 0-0 1-2 83.1 79.9 82.8 81.9
South Alabama 0-0 2-2 75.4 83.2 77.0 78.5
Troy 0-0 1-2 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
Georgia St. 1-0 1-2 75.7 74.4 75.4 75.2
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-3 73.6 74.7 73.5 73.9
Idaho 0-1 1-3 70.4 78.3 71.7 73.5
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 84.0 82.3 82.6

PiRate Ratings of Each Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.2 112.1 115.4 114.5
2 Pac-12 112.8 108.2 112.0 111.0
3 Big 12 110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
4 ACC 107.6 108.5 107.3 107.8
5 Big Ten 107.2 105.8 106.7 106.5
6 Indep. 102.9 104.5 104.0 103.8
7 AAC 94.4 98.1 95.0 95.8
8 MWC 92.0 93.8 91.6 92.5
9 MAC 87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.6 88.6 86.9 87.4
11 SBC 81.6 84.0 82.3 82.6

 

If The Playoffs Began This Week

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 Michigan St.
4 TCU

10 Lowest Rated Teams From Power 5 Conferences

# Team
10 Kansas
9 Maryland
8 Oregon St.
7 Iowa St.
6 Rutgers
5 Washington St.
4 Purdue
3 Syracuse
2 Vanderbilt
1 Indiana

 

Top 5 Group of 5 Contenders For New Year’s 6 Bowl

# Team
1 Temple
2 Memphis
3 Houston
4 Toledo
5 Navy

 

Top 10 FCS Teams

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.8
2 South Dakota St. 93.8
3 North Dakota St. 92.3
4 Coastal Carolina 89.7
5 Harvard 89.5
6 Chattanooga 89.2
7 James Madison 88.9
8 Illinois St. 88.2
9 Northern Iowa 88.1
10 Portland St. 88.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, October 1        
Cincinnati Miami (Fla) -3.9 -4.7 -3.3
         
Friday, October 2    PiRate  Mean  Bias
South Florida Memphis -13.8 -6.9 -15.8
Charlotte Temple -36.3 -36.4 -37.9
BYU Connecticut 27.9 19.8 28.7
         
Saturday, October 3    PiRate  Mean  Bias
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 11.0 6.3 10.0
Missouri South Carolina 5.6 6.1 6.2
Michigan St. Purdue 23.9 20.2 25.4
Northwestern Minnesota 0.3 2.5 0.3
Wisconsin Iowa 10.0 7.7 8.3
Penn St. Army 29.6 20.0 28.2
Iowa St. Kansas 18.6 21.6 19.5
Oklahoma West Virginia 7.4 10.0 8.1
TCU Texas 22.0 12.9 23.1
Tulane Central Florida 1.2 0.1 -2.1
Tulsa Houston -5.8 -7.9 -7.1
North Carolina St. Louisville 6.9 6.5 6.0
Akron Ohio U -6.0 -4.1 -5.2
Ball St. Toledo -12.8 -8.0 -12.8
California Washington St. 22.3 22.7 24.5
Massachusetts Florida Int’l 0.4 1.4 0.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois -6.8 -5.6 -5.2
Appalachian St. Wyoming 21.7 23.6 25.9
Navy Air Force 6.8 4.8 7.4
Buffalo Bowling Green -10.1 -6.8 -9.4
Kent St. Miami (O) 10.4 7.9 11.4
Duke Boston College 8.2 2.9 10.7
Wake Forest Florida St. -17.3 -13.5 -17.0
Georgia Tech North Carolina 9.5 6.4 9.3
Georgia Alabama 3.6 -2.2 3.7
Baylor Texas Tech 15.9 21.8 16.5
Illinois Nebraska 0.7 0.9 0.3
Indiana Ohio St. -33.0 -22.7 -33.8
Marshall Old Dominion 20.9 14.3 22.5
Rice Western Kentucky -12.5 -6.7 -13.2
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 5.7 19.3 7.6
Auburn San Jose St. 26.7 20.7 25.3
SMU East Carolina -3.1 -2.6 -3.4
Arkansas St. Idaho 21.5 13.1 20.9
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -8.6 -14.5 -9.6
Utah St. Colorado St. 4.2 4.8 5.9
Nevada UNLV 13.1 14.7 12.0
Troy South Alabama 1.9 -6.2 2.0
Florida Ole Miss -12.6 -10.1 -12.0
Tennessee Arkansas 5.4 7.2 6.0
LSU Eastern Michigan 54.8 41.9 54.8
Middle Tennessee Vanderbilt 0.5 6.0 1.1
Southern Miss. North Texas 13.1 7.5 12.1
Louisiana Tech Louisiana-Lafayette 20.0 12.9 20.7
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 8.9 10.9 7.7
UCLA Arizona St. 15.6 14.5 15.3
Clemson Notre Dame -5.1 -0.2 -5.7
UTEP UTSA 5.2 5.0 3.8
Maryland Michigan -20.1 -18.8 -21.0
New Mexico New Mexico St. 19.1 18.9 18.6
Colorado Oregon -9.0 -5.5 -8.9
Boise St. Hawaii 27.1 19.5 26.4
Stanford Arizona 8.4 14.4 10.6
San Diego St. Fresno St. 10.5 9.4 13.1
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 5 PiRate    
Georgia St. Liberty -5    
Kentucky Eastern Kentucky 28    

 

PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Western Michigan * vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Arizona St. vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Temple vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC San Diego St. * vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Nevada vs. Washington
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Toledo
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. Hawaii
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina St. vs. California
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Utah St. * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse vs. Iowa
Independence SEC ACC Colorado St. * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Oregon
Military ACC AAC North Carolina vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Minnesota vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. West Virginia
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Georgia Tech *
Belk ACC SEC Duke vs. Missouri
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Baylor
Cotton Playoff Playoff Notre Dame vs. Utah
Orange Playoff Playoff Georgia vs. Michigan
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Alabama
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. LSU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. UCLA
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Ole Miss vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fl) vs. Florida
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Georgia vs. Utah
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
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