Sweet 16 Preview

It hasn’t been the best year for our methodology, as we have just 11 teams remaining in the Sweet 16, while we have six teams still alive in our Elite 8 predictions, and three of the Final Four.  At least, our two finalists are still alive.

If you get to pick games anew with each round, here is the updated review of our bracketnomics 505 selection method.  If you need a primer on what the data means, please refer back to the previous article titled, “Bracketnomics 505–The Advanced Level Course in Bracket Picking,”  published on March 16.

Sweet 16 Schedule–All Times Listed are Eastern Daylight Time
Region	Seed	Team	W-L	Seed	Team	W-L	Day	Time	TV
Midwest	3	Notre Dame	31-5	7	Wichita St.	30-4	Thursday	7:15 PM	CBS
West	1	Wisconsin	33-3	4	North Carolina	26-11	Thursday	7:47 PM	TBS
Midwest	1	Kentucky	36-0	5	West Virginia	25-9	Thursday	9:45 PM	CBS
West	2	Arizona	33-3	6	Xavier	23-13	Thursday	10:17 PM	TBS
South	2	Gonzaga	34-2	11	UCLA	22-13	Friday	7:15 PM	CBS
East	4	Louisville	26-8	8	North Carolina St.	22-13	Friday	7:37 PM	TBS
South	1	Duke	31-4	5	Utah	26-8	Friday	9:45 PM	CBS
East	3	Oklahoma	24-10	7	Michigan St.	25-11	Friday	10:07 PM	TBS

OFFENSE STATS

Team	FG	FGA	3pt	3pta	FT	FTa	OR	DR	TO	Stl
Arizona	963	1971	184	508	655	925	398	946	401	261
Duke	1008	1989	266	683	531	771	415	890	391	251
Gonzaga	1035	1966	259	611	534	775	365	991	379	220
Kentucky	931	1999	192	554	636	881	464	923	381	237
Louisville	828	1930	191	621	491	736	432	844	394	272
Michigan St.	944	2009	269	693	417	662	402	946	410	193
N. C. St.	872	1994	227	641	489	713	424	909	368	135
North Carolina	1073	2253	176	501	559	796	517	996	477	248
Notre Dame	994	1951	289	742	539	728	294	877	339	247
Oklahoma	865	1980	232	671	481	652	375	919	412	235
UCLA	904	2032	220	593	500	739	428	900	423	234
Utah	828	1700	260	638	523	745	304	864	392	200
West Virginia	859	2084	225	704	560	844	562	678	440	372
Wichita St.	834	1868	236	652	486	696	400	809	320	244
Wisconsin	915	1905	255	713	517	679	344	869	267	162
Xavier	934	1960	231	649	553	759	356	895	435	216
DEFENSE STATS

Team	FG	FGA	3pt	3pta	FT	FTa	OR	DR	TO	Stl
Arizona	730	1855	191	580	472	681	273	740	502	168
Duke	872	2055	179	566	346	498	382	706	434	200
Gonzaga	794	2031	206	625	421	637	382	705	419	198
Kentucky	688	1958	162	600	404	618	425	696	503	172
Louisville	718	1838	171	580	406	618	379	800	487	198
Michigan St.	764	1935	214	674	531	738	342	790	393	200
N. C. St.	800	1998	209	631	483	685	395	818	344	186
North Carolina	863	2176	240	801	571	820	448	767	463	252
Notre Dame	895	2102	220	671	351	494	410	768	407	186
Oklahoma	772	2000	216	683	374	569	417	824	463	223
UCLA	828	1987	278	771	445	641	353	830	433	223
Utah	684	1787	166	528	402	591	304	864	394	189
West Virginia	738	1576	187	508	597	871	301	824	668	193
Wichita St.	661	1667	178	512	427	619	298	747	453	138
Wisconsin	796	1888	185	503	268	391	273	728	353	146
Xavier	864	1981	254	734	442	659	335	776	456	236

FOUR FACTORS

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTU%	FT*	DFT*
Arizona	53.5	44.5	35.0	22.4	16.6	20.9	27.1	19.6
Duke	57.4	46.8	37.0	30.0	16.8	18.5	22.8	14.8
Gonzaga	59.2	44.2	34.1	27.8	16.1	17.7	22.7	17.8
Kentucky	51.4	39.3	40.0	31.5	16.3	21.6	27.2	17.3
Louisville	47.8	43.7	35.1	31.0	17.6	21.7	21.9	18.1
Michigan St.	53.7	45.0	33.7	26.6	17.6	16.8	17.9	22.7
N. C. St.	49.4	45.3	34.1	30.3	16.2	15.1	21.5	21.3
North Carolina	51.5	45.2	40.3	31.0	18.4	17.9	21.6	22.1
Notre Dame	58.4	47.8	27.7	31.9	14.5	17.4	23.0	15.0
Oklahoma	49.5	44.0	31.3	31.2	17.7	20.0	20.7	16.1
UCLA	49.9	48.7	34.0	28.2	17.8	18.3	21.0	18.8
Utah	56.4	42.9	26.0	26.0	18.3	18.3	24.4	18.6
West Virginia	46.6	52.8	40.5	30.7	18.6	28.3	23.7	25.3
Wichita St.	51.0	45.0	34.9	26.9	15.1	21.4	22.9	20.2
Wisconsin	54.7	47.1	32.1	23.9	12.4	16.4	24.0	12.4
Xavier	53.5	50.0	31.4	27.2	18.1	18.9	23.0	18.3

PiRate Ratings Criteria

Team	PPG	D PPG	Mar.	FG-M	Rb-M	TO-M	R+T	WLRd	W-L	SOS	Poss.
Arizona	76.8	59.0	17.8	9.5	9.2	2.8	26.2	10-3	33-3	58.1	67.0
Duke	80.4	64.8	15.5	8.2	6.2	1.2	17.5	12-2	31-4	61.3	66.6
Gonzaga	79.5	61.5	18.0	13.6	7.5	1.1	19.6	15-1	34-2	55.8	65.2
Kentucky	74.7	53.9	20.8	11.4	7.4	3.4	22.7	16-0	36-0	58.2	64.8
Louisville	68.8	59.2	9.6	3.8	2.9	2.7	12.6	10-3	26-8	66.3	65.9
Michigan St.	71.5	63.1	8.4	7.5	6.0	-0.5	14.7	11-6	25-11	66.2	64.8
N. C. St.	70.3	65.5	4.8	3.7	3.4	-0.7	8.8	9-9	22-13	67.5	65.0
North Carolina	77.9	68.6	9.3	8.0	8.1	-0.4	18.3	13-5	26-11	69.3	70.0
Notre Dame	78.2	65.6	12.6	8.4	-0.2	1.9	5.8	13-2	31-5	61.9	65.1
Oklahoma	71.9	62.8	9.1	5.1	1.6	1.5	7.5	8-7	24-10	66.4	68.4
UCLA	72.2	68.0	4.3	2.8	4.1	0.3	11.5	6-12	22-13	66.1	67.9
Utah	71.7	56.9	14.8	10.4	0.0	0.1	3.4	10-7	26-8	59.6	63.0
West Virginia	73.6	66.5	7.1	-5.6	3.4	6.7	19.3	13-6	25-9	65.4	69.5
Wichita St.	70.3	56.7	13.6	5.0	4.8	3.9	19.1	15-4	30-4	56.7	62.3
Wisconsin	72.3	56.8	15.5	5.9	5.9	2.4	18.4	18-2	33-3	60.2	59.7
Xavier	73.7	67.3	6.3	4.0	3.9	0.6	10.8	10-10	23-13	65.6	66.7

The PiRate Ratings

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Notre Dame	Wichita St.	1	1	4
Wisconsin	North Carolina	6	4	2
Kentucky	West Virginia	13	11	12
Arizona	Xavier	11	9	14
Gonzaga	UCLA	10	8	5
Louisville	North Carolina St.	4	2	-2
Duke	Utah	3	3	9
Oklahoma	Michigan St.	1	1	-2

Predicted Elite 8 Games

East: Michigan St. over Louisville

South: Duke over Gonzaga

Midwest: Kentucky over Notre Dame

West: Arizona over Wisconsin

Predicted Final 4 Games

Duke over Michigan St.

Kentucky over Arizona

Predicted National Championship Game

Kentucky over Duke