The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 2, 2015

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—March 2, 2015

For some leagues, the regular season race is now over, and the important next step begins as 13 conference tournaments begin between Tuesday and Saturday. We have listed the pairings for these baker’s dozen following the regular Bracketology report.

We have adjusted our format beginning this week to better show you the seedings from 1 to 16 of our two dozen plus Bracketology experts. The Bubble has greatly contracted, and it is close to impossible to even select a top 10 teams out of the tournament as of today. It is our belief that at most one or two of these last 10 out have any realistic chance of gaining admission to the Dance; in essence, these are mostly top seeds for the NIT.

Actually, the last 5-10 teams in the tournament as of today are the schools that need close watch. Some will secure a bid by continuing a late-season momentum swing to the positive. Some will misfire at the most inappropriate time and seal their fate to the NIT. And, some will become a victim of upsets in conference tournaments that will need to add one to their pot of dance partners. It could happen this week, as both the Missouri Valley and West Coast Conferences would add a dancer should a 3 seed or higher win these tournaments.

Let’s take a look at how our experts seed the 68 teams as of today. Remember, there are 20 or 21 leagues as of today that will definitely send just one team, so we went with the highest rated team in these leagues, highest rating being their NCAA Tournament criteria and not necessarily their conference record. The higher up each team is within each seed, the higher the team ranked.

The 1-Seeds
Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
The 2-Seeds
Arizona
Wisconsin
Kansas
Gonzaga
The 3-Seeds
Oklahoma
Maryland
Baylor
Iowa St.
The 4-Seeds
Wichita St.
Utah
Louisville
Notre Dame
The 5-Seeds
Northern Iowa
Arkansas
North Carolina
West Virginia
The 6-Seeds
Butler
SMU
Providence
Georgetown
The 7-Seeds
VCU
San Diego St.
St. John’s
Ohio St.
The 8-seeds
Michigan St.
Indiana
Oklahoma St.
Dayton
The 9-Seeds
Georgia
Xavier
Iowa
LSU
The 10-Seeds
Colorado St.
Oregon
Ole Miss
Cincinnati
The 11-Seeds
Texas A&M
N. C. St.
Boise St.
Tulsa
Purdue
The 12-Seeds
Temple
Davidson
Wofford
Murray St.
Stephen F. Austin
The 13-Seeds
Louisiana Tech
Harvard or Yale
Valparaiso
Iona
The 14-Seeds
UC Davis
Central Michigan
Georgia Southern
Eastern Washington
The 15-Seeds
South Dakota St.
William & Mary
High Point
UNC-Central
The 16-Seeds
Albany
New Mexico St.
Texas Southern
Florida Gulf Coast
Bucknell
St. Francis (NY)

 

Last 10 IN

59 Oregon
60 Ole Miss
61 Cincinnati
62 Texas A&M
63 N. C. St.
64 Boise St.
65 Tulsa
66 Purdue
67 Temple
68 Davidson

 

First 10 OUT

69 BYU
70 Texas
71 Illinois
72 UCLA
73 Stanford
74 Miami (FLA.)
75 Pittsburgh
76 Old Dominion
77 TCU
78 Vanderbilt

 

Opening Round at Dayton

Tulsa vs. Davidson

Temple vs. Purdue

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (NY)

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Bucknell

 

Sweet 16 if Seeds Held

East Regional

1 Virginia vs. 4 Notre Dame

2 Gonzaga vs. 3 Oklahoma

South Regional

1 Kentucky vs. 4 Louisville

2 Kansas vs. 3 Maryland

Midwest Regional

1 Duke vs. 4 Utah

2 Wisconsin vs. 3 Baylor

West Regional

1 Villanova vs. 4 Wichita St.

2 Arizona vs. 3 Iowa St.

 

Conference Tournament Pairings for Tournaments Commencing This Week

America East Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Wednesday, March 4
8 Maine 2-14/3-26 @
1 Albany 15-1/21-8
5 Hartford 7-9/14-15 @
4 New Hampshire 11-5/18-11
6 Binghamton 5-11/6-25 @
3 Stony Brook 12-4/21-10
7 UMBC 2-14/6-25 @
2 Vermont 12-4/17-12
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
8 Stetson 3-11/9-21 @
1 North florida 12-2/20-11
5 Lipscomb 7-7/13-16 @
4 Northern Kentucky 7-7/13-16
6 Kennesaw St. 4-10/10-21 @
3 USC Upstate 8-6/21-10
7 Jacksonville 4-10/10-21 @
2 Florida Gulf Coast 11-3/21-9
Big South Conference Tournament
Conway, SC
Wednesday, March 4
8 Presbyterian 6-12/10-21
9 Longwood 5-13/9-22
Winner vs. 1 Charleston Southern 13-5/19-10
4 Winthrop 12-6/17-12
5 Radford 12-6/21-10
6 UNC-Asheville 10-8/14-15
11 Liberty 2-16/8-23
Winner vs. 3 Coastal Carolina 12-6/21-9
7 Gardner-Webb 10-8/18-13
10 Campbell 4-14/10-21
Winner vs. 2 High Point 13-5/22-8
Colonial Conference Tournament
Baltimore
Friday, March 6
8 Elon 6-12/14-17
9 Towson 5-13/12-19
Winner vs. 1 William & Mary 12-6/18-11
4 James Madison 12-6/19-12
5 Hofstra 10-8/19-12
3 Northeastern 12-6/20-11
6 Delaware 9-9/10-19
7 Drexel 9-9/11-18
10 Charleston 3-15/8-23
Winner vs. 2 UNCW 12-6/17-12
Horizon League Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
8 Youngstown St. 2-14/11-20 @
5 Detroit 7-9/14-17
Winner at 4 Cleveland St. 11-5/17-13
Subsequent winner at 1 Valparaiso 13-3/26-5
7 Wright St. 3-13/11-19 @
6 UIC 4-12/8-23
Winner at Oakland 11-5/16-15
Subsequent winner at 2 Green Bay 12-4/23-7
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
Thursday, March 5
8 Siena 7-13/10-19
9 Niagara 7-13/8-21
Winner vs. 1 Iona 17-3/24-7
4 Monmouth 13-7/17-14
5 Canisius 11-9/16-13
6 Quinnipiac 9-11/15-14
11 Marist 5-15/6-24
Winner vs. 3 Manhattan 13-7/17-14
7 St. Peter’s 8-12/14-17
10 Fairfield 5-15/7-23
Winner vs. 2 Rider 15-5/21-10
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Thursday, March 5
8 Missouri St. 5-13/11-19
9 Southern Illinois 4-14/11-20
Winner vs. 1 Wichita St. 17-1/27-3
4 Illinois St. 11-7/19-11
5 Evansville 9-9/19-11
3 Indiana St. 11-7/15-15
6 Loyola (Chi.) 8-10/18-12
7 Drake 6-12/9-21
10 Bradley 3-15/8-23
Winner vs. 2 Northern Iowa 16-2/27-3
Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Wednesday, March 4
8 LIU 8-10/12-17
1 St. Francis (NY) 15-3/21-10
5 St. Francis (PA) 9-9/15-14 @
4 Mt. St. Mary’s 11-7/15-14
6 Sacred Heart 9-9/15-16 @
3 Bryant 12-6/15-14
7 Wagner 8-10/10-19 @
2 Robert Morris 12-6/16-14
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Nashville
Wednesday, March 4
5 Morehead St. 10-6/15-16
8 SEMO 7-9/13-16
Winner vs. 4 UT-Martin 10-6/18-11
Subsequent winner vs. 1 Murray St. 16-0/26-4
6 E. Illinois 9-7/16-13
7 SIU-Edwardsville 8-8/12-15
Winner vs. 3 Belmont 11-5/19-10
Subsequent winner vs. 2 Eastern Kentucky 11-5/19-10
Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
9 Loyola (MD) 7-11/11-18 @
8 Holy Cross 8-10/13-15
Winner at 1 Bucknell 13-5/18-13
5 Boston U 9-9/13-16 @
4 Lafayette 9-9/17-12
6 American 8-10/15-15 @
3 Lehigh 10-8/15-13
10 Army 6-12/15-14 @
7 Navy 8-10/12-18
Winner at 2 Colgate 12-6/15-16
Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
Friday, March 6
8 UNCG 6-12/10-21
9 Samford 6-12/13-18
Winner vs. 1 Wofford 16-2/25-6
4 Western Carolina 9-9/14-16
5 East Tennessee 8-10/16-13
3 Mercer 12-6/17-14
6 VMI 7-11/11-18
7 Citadel 6-12/11-18
10 Furman 5-13/8-21
Winner vs. 2 Chattanooga 15-3/22-9
Summit League Tournament
Sioux Falls, SD
Saturday, March 7
1 South Dakota St. 12-4/21-9
8 Western Illinois 3-13/8-19
4 IPFW 9-7/16-13
5 South Dakota 9-7/16-15
3 Oral Roberts 10-6/17-13
6 IUPUI 6-10/10-20
2 North Dakota St. 12-4/20-9
7 Denver 6-10/12-17
West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
Friday, March 6
8 San Francisco 7-11/13-17
9 Pacific 4-14/12-18
Winner vs. 1 Gonzaga 17-1/29-2
4 Pepperdine 10-8/17-12
5 San Diego 8-10 15-15
3 St. Mary’s 13-5/21-8
6 Portland 7-11/16-14
7 Santa Clara 7-11/13-17
10 Loyola Marymount 4-14/8-22
Winner vs. 2 BYU 13-5/23-8

 

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