The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 27, 2015

Experimental Basketball Ratings for February 28 & March 1, 2015

As the college basketball regular season enters its final two weeks, the marathon NCAA Tournament dash enters its final miles.  In this race, the winner has basically lapped the field, as Kentucky appears to be headed to an undefeated regular season.

In this 5-month competition, it’s the teams that finish between number 58 and number 78 that create all the excitement.  For 20 conferences, there is no guessing to be made.  The winners of their conference tournaments will be the only teams receiving dance invitations.  The Ivy League champion will receive a the conference’s lone bid as well, making it 21 guaranteed teams.

When you add teams like Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, and all the other teams that already have resumes worthy of dancing, it really leaves about 15 spots at most to be filled by at-large teams.  This amount will drop some as unexpected teams win conference tournaments in leagues where more than one team will receive a bid.  For instance, if somebody other than Northern Iowa or Wichita St. wins Arch Madness in the Missouri Valley Conference, the league will receive three bids instead of two.

Here are the Bubble teams as of today.  They are listed in order of strongest to weakest according to our bracketology experts.  The dandy two dozen plus experts will submit their formal new list to me late Sunday night, and I will post the updated bracketology on Monday afternoon.

Last 16 In the Field
53 Ole Miss
54 Iowa
55 St. John’s
56 Dayton
57 Georgia
58 LSU
59 N. C. St.
60 Texas A&M
61 Colorado St.
62 Temple
63 Cincinnati
64 Texas
65 Stanford
66 Purdue
67 Oregon
68 Illinois
Out For Now
69 Tulsa
71 Pittsburgh
72 Davidson
73 Boise St.
74 BYU
75 Miami (FL.)
76 Old Dominion
77 U Mass
78 Rhode Island

Now for this weekend’s key games involving top 25 teams as well as teams from the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC.

Our PiRate Red and White Ratings continue to top 76% accuracy, while our Blue Ratings are lagging behind at 71%+.   For those not aware of how we computer our experimental ratings, we use the “Four Factors” popularized by Dean Oliver and others and then create three separate algorithms to come up with raw ratings.  We then adjust these ratings for home and road teams as well as for strength of schedule to come up with a margin.  The actual margins are Figured to 4 decimal places, but we round it to the nearest whole number.  If the nearest whole number is 0, we round it to 1 in the favored teams’ direction, even if the margin is .0001.

Home Visitor Red White Blue
Louisville Florida St. 16 13 10
Michigan Maryland -5 -1 2
Dayton VCU 1 2 1
Butler DePaul 19 14 13
Villanova Xavier 13 11 10
Miami (FL) North Carolina -5 -4 1
Oklahoma TCU 12 11 13
Wichita St. Northern Iowa 4 5 5
Kentucky Arkansas 18 16 14
Baylor West Virginia 5 6 5
Kansas St. Iowa St. -9 -6 -5
Virginia Virginia Tech 29 21 24
Kansas Texas 11 9 10
Duke Syracuse 16 15 14
San Diego St. Boise St. 8 5 6
Utah Arizona -3 1 1
Gonzaga BYU 15 11 12
Boston College N. C. St. -11 -5 -6
Clemson Georgia Tech -1 2 2
Penn St. Iowa -9 -4 -3
Illinois Northwestern 8 6 9
Georgia Missouri 21 14 19
LSU Ole Miss 2 4 -1
Vanderbilt Alabama 3 4 3
South Carolina Mississippi St. 8 9 7
Florida Tennessee 7 8 4
Texas A&M Auburn 15 12 14
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Connecticut SMU -5 -1 -2
Providence Marquette 12 10 10
Wisconsin Michigan St. 9 9 7
Wake Forest Pittsburgh -1 1 3
Ohio St. Purdue 8 9 10

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