The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 16, 2015

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 16, 2015

As the Eastern half of the nation tries to dig itself out of the latest several feet of global warming, it is hard to believe that the NCAA Tournament will begin in four weeks and one day.

The weather may not be clearing, but the dance marathon competitors are beginning to clear up.

Before going into this week’s bracketology report, let me address the shot-clock story from Friday, February 13.  If you haven’t read it, here is the link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2015/02/13/college-basketball-and-the-shot-clock/

We have received a lot of feedback from dozens of you, and apparently, this is a very divisive issue.  About 75% of you favor the 24-second clock for college basketball, while about 25% of you believe it will ruin the game.  You did not buy into the statistical data showing that more possessions in a game lead to more deviation in the efficiency and thus opens up the possibility of more upsets and not fewer.

We are happy that a couple of you are mathematics educators at the highest level, and all of you were unanimous in your support of the 24-second clock and the evidence that more possession would lead to more upsets.  Yes, it could lead to power teams winning by 40 instead of 25, but as we stated, Kentucky readily welcomes minimum possession games, and if the Wildcats are to be defeated this year, we believe it will come from an up-tempo team forcing the Blue Mist to defend 70 or more possessions.

Okay, back to the issue at hand.  Our two dozen plus bracketologists have released their individual bracketology reports this week, and we have combined them into our third master list of the season.  For more information on our composite experts, look at previous bracketology reports on this site.

Once again, 21 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament, and this could become 22 if Gonzaga wins the automatic bid from the West Coast Conference, as BYU has fallen out of the at-large list.  For now, we have Gonzaga sweeping through the remainder of their schedule, so in essence 22 leagues are tapped to send one representative to the Dance.

That leaves 46 remaining at-large spots, and according to our current data, about 64 teams competing for those 46 spots.

Let’s start with the definite one-bid leagues.  The conference tournament champion will get the lone bid for these conferences.  In the case of the Ivy League, at the present time, we believe Harvard and Yale will both finish 12-2, necessitating a playoff game.

Here are the top contenders for each of the one-bid leagues.  We have approximated the seed for the leading contender.

 

America East Conf Overall Seed
Albany 12-0 18-7 16
Vermont 11-2 16-10  
New Hampshire 9-4 16-10  
Stony Brook 8-4 17-10  
       
Atlantic Sun Conf Overall Seed
Florida Gulf Coast 9-1 19-7 15
North Florida 8-2 16-11  
USC Upstate 6-4 19-8  
       
Big Sky Conf Overall Seed
Eastern Washington 10-2 19-6 14
Sacramento St. 10-3 16-8  
Montana 10-3 14-10  
Northern Arizona 8-4 13-12  
Northern Colorado 7-6 12-12  
       
Big South Conf Overall Seed
High Point 10-4 19-7 16
Radford 10-4 19-8  
Charleston Southern 10-4 16-9  
Coastal Carolina 9-5 18-8  
Winthrop 9-5 14-11  
UNC Asheville 9-5 13-12  
Gardner-Webb 8-6 16-11  
       
Big West Conf Overall Seed
UC Davis 9-1 19-4 14
UC Irvine 7-3 14-10  
Long Beach St. 7-4 13-14  
UC Santa Barbara 6-4 13-11  
Hawaii 6-5 18-9  
       
Colonial Conf Overall Seed
William & Mary 10-4 16-9 14
UNC Wilmington 10-4 15-10  
Northeastern 9-5 17-10  
James Madison 9-5 16-11  
Hofstra 8-6 17-10  
Drexel 8-6 10-15  
       
Conference USA Conf Overall Seed
Louisiana Tech 11-2 20-6 13
UTEP 10-3 18-7  
Western Kentucky 9-3 16-8  
UAB 9-4 13-13  
Old Dominion 7-5 18-6  
UT San Antonio 7-6 13-11  
       
Horizon Conf Overall Seed
Valparaiso 11-2 24-4 12
Cleveland St. 10-3 16-11  
Green Bay 9-3 20-6  
Oakland 8-4 13-14  
       
Ivy Conf Overall Seed
Harvard 7-1 17-5 12
Yale 7-1 18-7  
Princeton 4-3 11-12  
       
Metro Atlantic Conf Overall Seed
Iona 14-2 21-6 13
Rider 12-4 18-9  
Monmouth 10-5 14-12  
Manhattan 10-6 13-12  
       
Mid-American Conf Overall Seed
Bowling Green 9-3 17-6 13
Central Michigan 8-4 18-5  
Akron 8-4 17-8  
Kent St. 8-4 17-8  
Toledo 8-4 16-9  
       
Mideastern Conf Overall Seed
UNC Central 11-0 19-6 15
Norfolk St. 9-3 16-11  
Howard 7-4 13-12  
Delaware St. 6-4 12-13  
UM-Eastern Shore 7-5 14-13  
South Carolina St. 7-5 10-17  
Hampton 6-5 10-14  
       
Northeast Conf Overall Seed
St. Francis (NY) 12-2 18-9 16
Robert Morris 9-5 13-13  
Bryant 9-5 12-13  
St. Francis (PA) 8-6 14-11  
LIU 8-6 12-13  
Mt. St. Mary‘s 8-6 12-13  
       
Ohio Valley Conf Overall Seed
Murray St. 13-0 23-4 13
UT-Martin 8-4 16-9  
Eastern Kentucky 8-4 16-9  
Belmont 8-5 16-10  
Eastern Illinois 8-5 15-11  
Morehead St. 7-6 12-16  
       
Patriot Conf Overall Seed
Bucknell 10-4 15-12 16
Colgate 9-5 12-15  
Lehigh 8-6 14-11  
       
Southern Conf Overall Seed
Wofford 12-2 21-6 12
Chattanooga 11-3 18-9  
Mercer 10-4 15-12  
East Tennessee St. 8-7 15-10  
Western Carolina 8-7 13-14  
       
Southland Conf Overall Seed
Sam Houston St. 11-1 20-5 14
Stephen F. Austin 10-1 20-4  
Northwestern St. 8-4 13-10  
Texas A&M-CC 8-4 13-11  
       
Southwestern Conf Overall Seed
Texas Southern 9-2 12-12 16
Prairie View 6-5 8-16  
       
Summit Conf Overall Seed
South Dakota St. 10-3 19-8 15
North Dakota St. 10-3 18-8  
IPFW 7-5 14-11  
Oral Roberts 7-5 14-12  
South Dakota 7-6 13-14  
       
Sun Belt Conf Overall Seed
La.-Monroe 12-3 18-8 15
Georgia Southern 11-3 18-5  
Georgia St. 10-4 17-8  
UT-Arlington 8-6 14-10  
La.-Lafayette 8-7 14-12  
       
Western Athletic Conf Overall Seed
New Mexico St. 9-1 17-10 16
UMKC 6-3 11-15  

Here are the multiple-bid leagues.  We list the top contenders by conference record, but you can see in many cases teams that are lower in the standings may be ranked ahead of teams higher in the standings when it comes to tournament criteria.

American Conf Overall Seed
SMU 12-2 21-5 6
Tulsa 10-2 17-7 12
Temple 10-3 19-7 9
Cincinnati 8-5 17-8 10
Memphis 7-5 15-10  
Connecticut 7-5 14-10  
       
Atlantic Ten Conf Overall Seed  
Dayton 9-3 19-5 8
VCU 9-3 19-6 6
Rhode Island 9-3 17-6  
Massachusetts 9-3 16-9  
Davidson 8-4 17-6  
George Washington 7-5 17-8  
       
Atlantic Coast Conf Overall Seed
Virginia 11-1 23-1 1
Notre Dame 10-3 22-4 3
Duke 9-3 22-3 1
Louisville 8-4 20-5 3
North Carolina 8-4 18-7 4
Clemson 7-6 15-10  
Pittsburgh 6-6 17-9  
NC State 6-7 15-11 12
Florida St 6-7 14-12  
Miami (FL) 5-6 15-9  
       
Big 12 Conf Overall Seed  
Kansas 10-2 21-4 2
Iowa St. 8-4 18-6 3
Oklahoma 8-5 17-8 4
West Virginia 7-5 19-6 7
Oklahoma St. 7-6 17-8 6
Baylor 6-6 18-7 4
Texas 6-6 17-8 8
       
Big East Conf Overall Seed  
Villanova 10-2 23-2 2
Butler 8-4 18-7 5
Providence 8-5 18-8 6
Georgetown 8-5 16-8 7
Xavier 7-7 16-10 10
St. John’s 6-6 17-8 9
       
Big Ten Conf Overall Seed  
Wisconsin 11-1 23-2 2
Maryland 9-4 21-5 4
Purdue 9-4 17-9  
Michigan St. 8-4 17-8 8
Ohio St. 8-5 19-7 7
Indiana 8-5 18-8 7
Illinois 7-6 17-9 11
Iowa 6-6 15-10 11
Michigan 6-7 13-12  
Minnesota 5-8 16-10  
       
Missouri Valley Conf Overall Seed  
Northern Iowa 13-1 24-2 5
Wichita St. 13-1 23-3 5
       
Mountain West Conf Overall  
San Diego St. 10-3 20-6 8
Wyoming 9-4 20-6  
Boise St. 8-4 18-7  
Colorado St. 8-5 21-5 10
       
Pac-12 Conf Overall Seed  
Arizona 10-2 22-3 2
Utah 10-2 20-4 3
Oregon 8-5 18-8  
UCLA 8-5 16-10 11
Stanford 7-6 16-9 11
Oregon St. 7-6 16-9  
       
Southeastern Conf Overall Seed  
Kentucky 12-0 25-0 1
Arkansas 9-3 20-5 5
Texas A&M 8-4 17-7 11
Ole Miss 8-4 17-8 9
LSU 7-5 18-7 10
Georgia 7-5 16-8 9
Tennessee 6-6 14-10  
       
West Coast Conf Overall Seed  
Gonzaga 14-0 26-1 1
St. Mary’s 11-3 19-6  
BYU 10-5 20-8  

Here is how the experts seed the top four by regions.

East  
1 Virginia
2 Kansas
3 Iowa St.
4 Maryland
   
South  
1 Kentucky
2 Arizona
3 Notre Dame
4 Baylor
   
Midwest  
1 Duke
2 Villanova
3 Louisville
4 Oklahoma
   
West  
1 Gonzaga
2 Wisconsin
3 Utah
4 North Carolina

The last 10 in the field are all in danger of falling out of the field of 68 with one bad week.  Michigan was in the field two weeks ago, but the Wolverines have lost four games in a row to fall off the bubble altogether.

# Last 10 In
68 Tulsa
67 N. C. St.
66 Stanford
65 Texas A&M
64 UCLA
63 Illinois
62 Iowa
61 LSU
60 Colorado State
59 Cincinnati

These are the remaining teams in order trying to move up into the field, but for now would be in the NIT if the season ended today.

# NIT Bound?
69 Purdue
70 Miami (FL.)
71 Oregon
72 U Mass
73 Old Dominion
74 BYU
75 Boise St.
76 Pittsburgh
77 Florida
78 Clemson
79 Minnesota
80 Arizona St.
81 TCU
82 Seton Hall
83 George Washington
84 Wyoming
85 Davidson
86 Rhode Island
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