The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 29, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Simulator

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 9:09 am

Thanks to finally gaining access to the simulator of a prestigious college computer lab, the PiRates have simulated Super Bowl XLIX 10,000 times.  Without further adieu, here are the key essential numbers.


Weather was input into the simulation.  We used the current forecast for Phoenix at the approximate time of halftime–64 degrees.  We used a 7 MPH wind from the Southeast with mostly cloudy skies and relative humidity of 60%.


10,000 Simulations (rounded to the nearest whole number)

New England Patriots Won 63%

Seattle Seahawks Won 37%

Average Margin of victory: New England by 2

Average Total Points Scored: 54

New England at -1 Covered the Spread: 59%

Seattle at +1 Covered the Spread: 37%

Push (NE won by 1): 4%

New England Won by 14 or more points: 7%

New England Won by 7-13 points: 17%

New England Won by 4-6 points: 21%

New England Won by 1-3 points: 18%

Seattle Won by 14 or more points: 2%

Seattle Won by 7-13 points: 8%

Seattle Won by 4-6 points: 11%

Seattle Won by 1-3 points: 16%

Game went Over 48 points: 56%

Game went Under 48 points: 40%

Game total exactly 48 %: 4%

Game Went to Overtime: 9% (This is rather high, but 896 of the 10,000 simulations showed the game going to overtime, and one simulation had the game going into the second period of OT.  Could we be looking at the first OT in Super Bowl history?  9% is still just one chance in 11, but there has not been a league championship game ending with overtime since the Dallas Texans defeated the Houston Oilers in the AFL Championship in the 1962 season, and not since the Baltimore Colts defeated the New York Giants in the NFL Championship in 1958.  That means 58 consecutive pro football championships have not ended in overtime. 

There have been a couple of very close finishes where the last play of the game stopped an overtime from happening in a Super Bowl.

Super Bowl V ended with Colts’ kicker Jim O’Brien connecting on the game-winning FG as the clock expired in what became known as the “Kick heard ’round the world.” 


Super Bowl XXXIV ended with Tennessee Titan receiver Derek Mason being stopped one yard short of the goal line with the St. Louis Rams up by seven.


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