The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 16, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks: January 17-18, 2015

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:11 pm

The PiRate Ratings introduced our new basketball ratings last week with mixed results.  This is an experimental rating in its infancy, so our algorithms may be adjusted over time.

Our method is to use basketball’s “Four Factors” and find algorithms that take this data and determine a pointspread based on the data.  Obviously, strength of schedule and home court advantage must be factored into the equation.

We found three separate algorithms that, when back-tested, proved to be more accurate than all others we experimented with.

We call the three ratings, PiRate Red, PiRate White, and PiRate Blue, since it would be ridiculous to call one rating the Effective Field Goal % bias, another one the Rebounding/Turnover Bias, and the third one the rating that incorporates steals into turnover rate.  Red, white, and blue are easier to remember.

Because the amount of time to figure each game is lengthy and cannot be done mechanically, we are covering just the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC games on Saturdays and Sundays for now.

Once the NCAA Tournament seedings are announced, we will select all tournament games.

Here is our second weekend of official “experimental” picks–January 17-18, 2015

A minus number means the visitor is the favorite.

Home Visitor Red White Blue
Alabama Kentucky -23 -8 -12
Arkansas Ole Miss 12 8 10
Auburn South Carolina -13 -4 -2
Boston College Virginia -24 -14 -16
Clemson Syracuse -13 -1 -7
Florida St. NC State -8 -4 -2
Georgia Florida -4 3 -5
Iowa Ohio St. -15 1 2
Louisville Duke 6 5 4
LSU Texas A&M 3 7 7
Maryland Michigan St. 1 4 -2
Michigan Northwestern 10 8 12
Minnesota Rutgers 23 12 11
Mississippi St. Vanderbilt -17 -7 -2
Missouri Tennessee -7 1 3
Notre Dame Miami (FL) 21 11 7
Penn St. Purdue -1 1 -2
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 8 3 7
Illinois Indiana 6 3 3
North Carolina Virginia Tech 18 21 21

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