The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 9, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks: January 10-11, 2015

The PiRate Ratings Introduce our new basketball ratings with this post.

Our method is to use basketball’s “Four Factors” and find algorithms that take this data and determine a pointspread based on it.  Obviously, strength of schedule and home court advantage must be factored into the equation.

We have found three separate algorithms that, when backtested, have proven to be more accurate than all others we experimented with.  We are calling the three ratings, PiRate Red, PiRate White, and PiRate Blue, since it would be ridiculous to call one rating the Effective Field Goal % bias, another one the Rebounding/Turnover Bias, and the third one the rating that incorporates steals into turnover rate.  Red, white, and blue are easy to remember.

Because the amount of time to figure each game is lengthy and cannot be done mechanically, we are going to begin by covering the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC games plus other important games during the regular season.

Once the NCAA Tournament seedings are announced, we will select all tournament games.

Here are our first official “experimental” picks–January 10-11, 2015

Home Visitor Red White Blue
Arkansas Vanderbilt 15 10 14
Auburn Missouri 4 3 2
Florida Mississippi St. 24 18 25
Indiana Ohio St. -16 -1 -7
LSU Georgia -1 2 6
Miami (FL) Boston College 16 8 11
Michigan Minnesota -6 -1 -2
Michigan St. Northwestern 23 16 19
NC State Duke -15 -11 -11
Nebraska Illinois -6 1 -2
North Carolina Louisville -2 6 -3
Notre Dame Virginia 19 1 7
Ole Miss South Carolina -7 2 5
Pittsburgh Clemson 4 8 9
Purdue Maryland -4 -1 -3
Rutgers Wisconsin -32 -15 -19
Syracuse Florida St. 21 13 18
Tennessee Alabama -4 2 1
Texas A&M Kentucky -23 -12 -17
Wake Forest Georgia Tech 2 1 -2

Here are our opening picks.


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