The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 6, 2014

PiRate Ratings Preview of NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

This has been one of the most interesting NCAA Tournaments in many years.  Never have both title game participants both enter the game with eight or more losses.  Kentucky with 10 and Connecticut with 8 make for the most total losses by title contenders at 18.  The same goes for highest combined seeds (UK-8/UConn-7).  Both teams failed to play in the NCAA Tournament at all last year, although Connecticut was ineligible due to academic progress issues.

 

The most interesting part of this equation for us involves the Huskies.  Connecticut has become the first team ever to make the Championship Game with a negative R+T rating.  R+T is a statistic that we invented.  It is similar to park-adjusted On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage in baseball.  It is a one-for-one adjustment to the number of extra scoring opportunities a team should expect to obtain in a game due to rebounds and turnovers, but with a higher emphasis on offensive rebounds and steals, which most frequently lead to easy scoring chances.

 

These schools squared off in the Final Four in 2011, which just so happened to be played in the Lone Star State.  Connecticut edged Kentucky by one point at Reliant Stadium in Houston.  No current Kentucky player was on the 2011 roster, while three Husky players saw action in that game.

 

Here is our look at the starting lineups.

 

Point Guard:

Kentucky—Andrew Harrison   #5        6-6, 215 Fr.

Connecticut—Shabazz Napier #13      6-1, 180 Sr.

Shooting Guard:

Kentucky—Aaron Harrison   #2        6-6, 218 Fr.

Connecticut—Ryan Boatright  #11      6-0, 168 Jr.

Small Forward:

Kentucky—James Young  #1        6-6, 215 Fr.

Connecticut—Niels Giffey #5        6-7, 205 Sr.

 

Power Forward:

Kentucky—Julius Randle    #30      6-9, 250 Fr.

Connecticut—DeAndre Daniels  #2    6-9, 195 Jr.

 

Center:

Kentucky—Dakari Johnson  #44      7-0, 265 Fr.

Connecticut—Phillip Nolan   #0        6-10, 212 So.

 

Reserves

Kentucky—Alex Poythress    #22      6-8, 239 So.

Kentucky—Marcus Lee     #00      6-9, 215 Fr.

Kentucky—Jarrod Polson  #3        6-2, 182 Sr.

Kentucky-Dominique Hawkins  #25      6-0, 193 Fr.

 

Connecticut—Lasan Kromah #20      6-6, 201 Jr.

Connecticut—Amida Brimah #35      7-0, 217 Fr.

Connecticut—Tyler Olander   #10      6-10, 230 Sr.

Connecticut—Terrence Samuel  #3        6-4, 190 Fr.

 

Here is our special statistical look at the game.

 

Stat Kentucky Connecticut
FG 986 949
FG-Att 2168 2109
3-Pt 198 281
Effective FG% 50.0 51.7
Def FG 911 860
Def FG-Att 2218 2195
Def 3-pt 216 236
Def Effective FG% 45.9 44.6
Offensive Reb 564 379
Opp. Def. Reb 768 863
Reb Rate 42.3 30.5
Opp. Off. Reb 429 482
Defensive Reb 1011 983
Opp. Reb Rate 29.8 32.9
Turnovers 468 447
Free Throw Attempts 1122 819
Turnover Rate 14.8 15.2
Opp. Turnovers 418 505
Opp. FT-Attempts 826 777
Opp. Turnover Rate 13.8 16.5
Free Throws Made 768 634
Free Throw Rate 29.5 24.7
Opp. FT-Made 567 519
Opp. FT Rate 21.8 20.1
Possessions/Game 66.8 65.8
R + T Rating 14.3 -1.1
Road/Neutral W-L 13-8 16-5
Strength of Schedule .5825 .5735
FG% Margin Score 3.54 6.13
Reb Rate Score 3.12 -0.59
TO Margin Score -0.37 0.49
FT Rate Score 1.27 0.77
PiRate Criteria Score 7.57 6.80
Predicted Score 69 67

 

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