Record in Round 2: 26-6 (81.3%) Total for Tournament: 26-6 (81.3%)
The PiRate Criteria held up quite well in the opening two rounds. In our preliminary comments Monday, we mentioned six major conference teams that our criteria said were vulnerable to first game exits. Of those six (Arizona St., Connecticut, Nebraska, North Carolina St., Ohio St., and Oklahoma St.), five lost, with only UConn advancing. We gave you five double-digit seeds that we thought could pull upsets in their first game (Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, North Dakota St., and Stephen F. Austin), and four of those teams beat their favored opponent.
Here are the matchups for Saturday’s Round 3 games with our criteria comparisons. Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game. We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.
Look for Sunday’s games to post here some time Saturday evening.
Round 3 Schedule
|
Time |
Region |
Seed |
Team |
Seed |
Team |
Network |
|
12:15 PM |
South |
1 |
Florida |
9 |
Pittsburgh |
CBS |
|
2:45 PM |
Midwest |
4 |
Louisville |
5 |
Saint Louis |
CBS |
|
5:15 PM |
Midwest |
2 |
Michigan |
7 |
Texas |
CBS |
|
6:10 PM |
West |
4 |
San Diego St. |
12 |
North Dakota St. |
TNT |
|
7:10 PM |
South |
3 |
Syracuse |
11 |
Dayton |
TBS |
|
7:45 PM |
West |
2 |
Wisconsin |
7 |
Oregon |
CBS |
|
8:40 PM |
East |
4 |
Michigan St. |
12 |
Harvard |
TNT |
|
9:40 PM |
East |
2 |
Villanova |
7 |
Connecticut |
TBS |
Florida vs. Pittsburgh
This should be much closer than people might expect. Florida has the advantage in shooting, but Pitt has the advantage on the boards. The Gators have a slight edge in turnover margin, but Pitt has the R+T advantage.
PiRate Criteria: Florida by 1 Prediction: Florida 66 Pittsburgh 62
Louisville vs. Saint Louis
Louisville has the advantages on all fronts—shooting, rebounding, turnover margin, and the all-important R+T advantage. The Billikens’ only chance in this game is to control the tempo and take smart shots, hoping to catch UL on a cold-shooting afternoon.
PiRate Criteria: Louisville by 8 Prediction: Louisville 71 Saint Louis 57
Michigan vs. Texas
Michigan has a considerable shooting advantage, but Texas should capitalize on numerous extra scoring opportunities thanks to a superior R+T advantage. This one will provide the viewer with an extreme contrast where the finesse team plays the power team.
PiRate Criteria: Michigan by 2 Predication: Michigan 72 Texas 68
San Diego St. vs. North Dakota St.
North Dakota St. is the best shooting team in the tournament, but San Diego St. is one of the top defensive teams in the Dance. The Aztecs’ biggest assets are their ability to force opponents into turnovers and into taking poor shots.
PiRate Criteria: San Diego St. by 3 Prediction: San Diego St. 78 North Dakota St. 71
Syracuse vs. Dayton
Syracuse could have a bad shooting night, but the Orange should still prevail. Their major advantage on the glass combined with Dayton’s propensity to get sloppy handling the ball at times, should be the difference inthis game.
PiRate Criteria: Syracuse by 2 Prediction: Syracuse 64 Dayton 58
Wisconsin vs. Oregon
This game is the closest of the Saturday games according to PiRate Criteria. Shooting ability is even; rebounding is as well. Oregon’s defense is better at forcing turnovers, but Wisconsin is one of the best at not turning the ball over. A slight advantage in schedule strength tilts this game to the Badgers.
PiRate Criteria: Wisconsin by less than 1 Prediction: Wisconsin 68 Oregon 67
Michigan St. vs. Harvard
Michigan St. has small advantages across the board thanks to a much more difficult schedule. Harvard could keep it close for some time, but the Spartans will eventually pull away to a comfortable margin.
PiRate Criteria: Michigan St. by 6 Prediction: Michigan St. 74 Harvard 62
Villanova vs. Connecticut
Connecticut has a negative R+T rating, and we cannot select any negative R+T team to win after the round of 64. Villanova should neutralize UConn’s rebounding strength in the middle.
PiRate Criteria: Villanova by 4 Prediction: Villanova 74 Connecticut 64
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