PiRate Ratings–NFL Wildcard Round Preview

Wildcard Playoff TV Schedule

Day	Time (ET)	Game	TV	Radio
Saturday, January 4	4:35 PM	Kansas City @ Indianapolis	NBC	Westwood 1
Saturday, January 4	8:10 PM	New Orleans @ Philadelphia	NBC	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 5	1:05 PM	San Diego @ Cincinnati	CBS	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 5	4:40 PM	San Francisco @ Green Bay	Fox	Westwood 1
To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:
http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Indianapolis—Dome Stadium (no weather effect)

Philadelphia—Partly Cloudy / Temperatures remaining steady near 28 degrees and light winds

Cincinnati—90 % chance of rain/snow mix / Temperatures falling through the 30’s with moderate winds

Green Bay—Brutally cold with temperatures falling from about 5 at kickoff to -5 but dry.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indianapolis	Kansas City	2.9	4.6	2.9
Philadelphia	New Orleans	-0.2	0.3	-0.6
Cincinnati	San Diego	8.1	8.1	8.4
Green Bay	San Francisco	-5.1	-6.2	-6.1

 

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Kansas City Wins: 37

Indianapolis Wins: 63

Average Margin: Indianapolis 24.4  Kansas City 22.7

KC Outlier Win: 30-10

Ind Outlier Win: 27-7

 

New Orleans at Philadelphia

New Orleans Wins: 29

Philadelphia Wins: 71

Average Margin: Philadelphia 31.1  New Orleans 23.8

NO Outlier Win: 38-20

Phi Outlier Win: 34-13

 

San Diego at Cincinnati

San Diego Wins: 44

Cincinnati Wins: 56

Average Margin: Cincinnati 25.2  San Diego 24.5

SD Outlier Win: 28-12

Cin Outlier Win: 31-10

(8 simulations had an OT victory—5 for Cin and 3 for SD)

(Lowest Standard Deviation in this round of sims)

 

San Francisco at Green Bay

San Francisco Wins: 62

Green Bay Wins: 38

Average Margin: San Francisco 26.3  Green Bay 22.0

SF Outlier Win: 37-16

GB Outlier Win: 28-17

(GB’s 11-point outlier margin occurred 7 other times)