The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings–2013-14 College Football Bowl Preview

The Bowl Simulator Returns

We were fortunate this week to get a turn on the master computer and simulate the 35 bowl games.  We simulated each bowl 100 times and will present the number of wins for both sides, the average score for both sides, and the outlier scores for both sides on all 35 games.

 

In addition, we will present the normal three PiRate Ratings, as well as viewing information so you can know when and where to tune in.

 

Simulated Playoffs

While we were at it, we simulated the PiRate Version of the NCAA playoffs, as well as the future actual version of four teams.  Check back for the results of those two tournaments on Friday afternoon.

 

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Mexico

12/21/2013

Albuquerque

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Colorado St. (7-6) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington St. 74  Colorado St. 26

Average Score

Washington St. 33.9  Colorado St. 24.6

Outlier A

Washington St. 52-24

Outlier B

Colorado St. 38-33

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington St. by 6.9

PiRate Mean

Washington St. by 6.0

PiRate Bias

Washington St. by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME—ET

TV

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

12/21/2013

Las Vegas

3:30pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Fresno St. (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

USC 68  Fresno St. 32

Average Score

USC 30.9  Fresno St. 26.6

Outlier A

USC 45 Fresno St. 24

Outlier B

Fresno St. 37 USC 21

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

USC by 10.7

PiRate Mean

USC by 7.3

PiRate Bias

USC by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Famous Idaho Potato

12/21/2013

Boise, ID

5:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

San Diego St. (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Buffalo 53  San Diego St. 47

Average Score

Buffalo 25.3  San Diego St. 24.2

Outlier A

Buffalo 34-10

Outlier B

San Diego St. 27-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Buffalo by 6.0

PiRate Mean

Buffalo by 9.2

PiRate Bias

Buffalo by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Orleans

12/21/2013

New Orleans

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

UL-Lafayette (8-4) vs. Tulane (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Tulane 54  UL-Lafayette 46

Average Score

Tulane 27.4  UL-Lafayette 26.2

Outlier A

Tulane 35-13

Outlier B

UL-Lafayette 27-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Tulane by 2.8

PiRate Mean

Tulane by 4.7

PiRate Bias

Tulane by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

12/23/2013

St. Petersburg

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

East Carolina 89  Ohio 11

Average Score

East Carolina 37.3  Ohio 22.7

Outlier A

East Carolina 61-20

Outlier B

Ohio 34-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

East Carolina by 19.9

PiRate Mean

East Carolina by 18.9

PiRate Bias

East Carolina by 20.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Hawaii

12/24/2013

Honolulu

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Oregon St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon St. 52  Boise St. 48

Average Score

Oregon St. 26.2  Boise St. 25.5

Outlier A

Oregon St. 38-20

Outlier B

Boise St. 40-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon St. by 9.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon St. by 5.0

PiRate Bias

Oregon St. by 7.0

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Little Caesars Pizza

12/26/2013

Detroit

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Bowling Green 60  Pittsburgh 40

Average Score

Bowling Green 33.9  Pittsburgh 29.7

Outlier A

Bowling Green 44-20

Outlier B

Pittsburgh 34-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Bowling Green by 11.0

PiRate Mean

Bowling Green by 13.3

PiRate Bias

Bowling Green by 12.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Poinsettia

12/26/2013

San Diego

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Utah St. 53  Northern Illinois 47

Average Score

Northern Illinois 32.7  Utah St. 32.4

Outlier A

Utah St. 42-21

Outlier B

Northern Illinois 48-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Utah St. by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Utah St. by 0.4

PiRate Bias

Utah St. by 4.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Military Bowl

12/27/2013

Washington, DC

2:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Maryland (7-5) vs. Marshall (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Marshall 54  Maryland 46

Average Score

Marshall 27.3  Maryland 26.7

Outlier A

Marshall 35-14

Outlier B

Maryland 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Marshall by 1.0

PiRate Mean

Marshall by 1.2

PiRate Bias

Marshall by 1.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Texas

12/27/2013

Houston

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Minnesota 59  Syracuse 41

Average Score

Minnesota 19.7  Syracuse 16.6

Outlier A

Minnesota 27-3

Outlier B

Syracuse 20-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Minnesota by 7.8

PiRate Mean

Minnesota by 13.1

PiRate Bias

Minnesota by 7.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

12/27/2013

San Francisco

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Washington (8-4) vs. BYU (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington 64  BYU 36

Average Score

Washington 29.4  BYU 25.5

Outlier A

Washington 31-13

Outlier B

BYU 28-18

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington by 10.6

PiRate Mean

Washington by 7.8

PiRate Bias

Washington by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Pinstripe

12/28/2013

Bronx

12:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Notre Dame 88  Rutgers 12

Average Score

Notre Dame 36.7  Rutgers 20.4

Outlier A

Notre Dame 48-7

Outlier B

Rutgers 28-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Notre Dame by 20.4

PiRate Mean

Notre Dame by 16.4

PiRate Bias

Notre Dame by 19.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Belk

12/28/2013

Charlotte

3:20pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Cincinnati 52  North Carolina 48

Average Score

Cincinnati 27.0 North Carolina 26.2

Outlier A

Cincinnati 34-12

Outlier B

North Carolina 28-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Carolina by 2.1

PiRate Mean

North Carolina by 2.5

PiRate Bias

North Carolina by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Russell Athletic

12/28/2013

Orlando

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Louisville (11-1) vs. Miami (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Miami 56 Louisville 44

Average Score

Miami 30.4  Louisville 27.2

Outlier A

Miami 38-20

Outlier B

Louisville 41-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Louisville by 0.5

PiRate Mean

Miami by 0.8

PiRate Bias

Louisville by 0.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

12/28/2013

Tempe, AZ

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. Michigan (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Michigan 50 Kansas St. 50

Average Score

Michigan 25.6  Kansas St. 25.3

Outlier A

Michigan 38-17

Outlier B

Kansas St. 28-6

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Kansas St. by 0.8

PiRate Mean

Michigan by 6.7

PiRate Bias

Kansas St. by 0.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Armed Forces

12/30/2013

Ft. Worth, TX

11:45am

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Navy (8-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Navy 61  Middle Tennessee 39

Average Score

Navy 32.9  Middle Tennessee 27.1

Outlier A

Navy 40-21

Outlier B

Middle Tennessee 37-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Navy by 8.5

PiRate Mean

Navy by 5.9

PiRate Bias

Navy by 8.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Music City

12/30/2013

Nashville

3:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ole Miss 73  Georgia Tech 27

Average Score

Ole Miss 38.2  Georgia Tech 29.7

Outlier A

Ole Miss 49-20

Outlier B

Georgia Tech 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ole Miss by 6.4

PiRate Mean

Ole Miss by 3.8

PiRate Bias

Ole Miss by 5.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Alamo

12/30/2013

San Antonio

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon 84  Texas 16

Average Score

Oregon 43.7  Texas 28.4

Outlier A

Oregon 62-31

Outlier B

Texas 41-32

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon by 6.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon by 10.2

PiRate Bias

Oregon by 7.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Holiday

12/30/2013

San Diego

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona St. 78  Texas Tech 22

Average Score

Arizona St. 32.0  Texas Tech 24.7

Outlier A

Arizona St. 30-10

Outlier B

Texas Tech 27-19

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona St. by 18.8

PiRate Mean

Arizona St. by 22.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona St. by 19.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

12/31/2013

Shreveport, LA

12:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boston College (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona 68  Boston College 32

Average Score

Arizona 25.6  Boston College 23.8

Outlier A

Arizona 35-17

Outlier B

Boston College 24-7

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona by 12.6

PiRate Mean

Arizona by 8.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona by 10.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sun

12/31/2013

El Paso, TX

2:00pm

CBS

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

UCLA 82  Virginia Tech 18

Average Score

UCLA 31.3  Virginia Tech 21.6

Outlier A

UCLA 48-14

Outlier B

Virginia Tech 24-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

UCLA by 14.6

PiRate Mean

UCLA by 9.7

PiRate Bias

UCLA by 14.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Liberty

12/31/2013

Memphis

4:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Mississippi St. (6-6) vs. Rice (10-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Mississippi St. 57  Rice 43

Average Score

Mississippi St. 27.7  Rice 23.9

Outlier A

Mississippi St. 34-13

Outlier B

Rice 34-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Mississippi St. by 15.0

PiRate Mean

Mississippi St. by 5.3

PiRate Bias

Mississippi St. by 10.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Chick-fil-A

12/31/2013

Atlanta

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Texas A&M 91  Duke 9

Average Score

Texas A&M 42.5  Duke 22.4

Outlier A

Texas A&M 56-10

Outlier B

Duke 34-29

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Texas A&M by 12.9

PiRate Mean

Texas A&M by 8.7

PiRate Bias

Texas A&M by 11.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Heart Of Dallas

1/1/2014

Dallas

12:00pm

ESPN-U

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

North Texas (8-4) vs. UNLV (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

North Texas 62  UNLV 38

Average Score

North Texas 28.2  UNLV 22.8

Outlier A

North Texas 38-17

Outlier B

UNLV 34-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Texas by 10.8

PiRate Mean

North Texas by 11.7

PiRate Bias

North Texas by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Gator

1/1/2014

Jacksonville

12:00pm

ESPN-2

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Nebraska 54  Georgia 46

Average Score

Nebraska 33.2  Georgia 33.0

Outlier A

Nebraska 41-23

Outlier B

Georgia 38-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Georgia by 9.3

PiRate Mean

Georgia by 9.0

PiRate Bias

Georgia by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Outback

1/1/2014

Tampa

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

LSU (9-3) vs. Iowa (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

LSU 58  Iowa 42

Average Score

LSU 26.7  Iowa 24.3

Outlier A

LSU 31-10

Outlier B

Iowa 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

LSU by 13.7

PiRate Mean

LSU by 12.4

PiRate Bias

LSU by 14.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Capital One

1/1/2014

Orlando

1:00pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

South Carolina 60  Wisconsin 40

Average Score

South Carolina 26.1  Wisconsin 23.7

Outlier A

South Carolina 34-14

Outlier B

Wisconsin 30-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

South Carolina by 0.8

PiRate Mean

South Carolina by 1.9

PiRate Bias

South Carolina by 0.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Rose

1/1/2014

Pasadena, CA

5:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Michigan St. (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Stanford 53  Michigan St. 47

Average Score

Stanford 23.7  Michigan St. 23.4

Outlier A

Stanford 27-7

Outlier B

Michigan St. 24-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Stanford by 8.9

PiRate Mean

Stanford by 2.6

PiRate Bias

Stanford by 8.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Fiesta

1/1/2014

Glendale, AZ

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Baylor (11-1) vs. Central Florida (11-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Baylor 94  Central Florida 6

Average Score

Baylor 43.6  Central Florida 20.8

Outlier A

Baylor 61-17

Outlier B

Central Florida 31-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Baylor by 21.1

PiRate Mean

Baylor by 11.6

PiRate Bias

Baylor by 21.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sugar

1/2/2014

New Orleans

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Alabama (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Alabama 79  Oklahoma 21

Average Score

Alabama 30.1  Oklahoma 20.0

Outlier A

Alabama 34-7

Outlier B

Oklahoma 26-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Alabama by 17.0

PiRate Mean

Alabama by 18.5

PiRate Bias

Alabama by 17.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Cotton

1/3/2014

Arlington, TX

7:30pm

Fox

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Missouri (11-2) vs. Oklahoma St. (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Missouri 53 Oklahoma St. 47

Average Score

Missouri 29.9  Oklahoma St. 29.1

Outlier A

Missouri 41-22

Outlier B

Oklahoma St. 38-25

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oklahoma St. by 4.3

PiRate Mean

Missouri by 1.9

PiRate Bias

Oklahoma St. by 4.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Orange

1/3/2014

Miami

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio St. (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ohio St. 76  Clemson 24

Average Score

Ohio St. 37.6  Clemson 29.4

Outlier A

Ohio St. 45-20

Outlier B

Clemson 34-26

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ohio St. by 5.7

PiRate Mean

Ohio St. by 4.2

PiRate Bias

Ohio St. by 4.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BBVA Compass Bowl

1/4/2014

Birmingham

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Houston 58  Vanderbilt 42

Average Score

Houston 27.4  Vanderbilt 25.8

Outlier A

Houston 34-17

Outlier B

Vanderbilt 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Vanderbilt by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Houston by 3.2

PiRate Bias

Vanderbilt by 2.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

GoDaddy.com

1/5/2014

Mobile, AL

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ball St. (10-2) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ball St. 61  Arkansas St. 39

Average Score

Ball St. 32.7  Arkansas St. 27.0

Outlier A

Ball St. 40-21

Outlier B

Arkansas St. 33-14

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ball St. by 11.2

PiRate Mean

Ball St. by 15.0

PiRate Bias

Ball St. by 12.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BCS Championship

1/6/2014

Pasadena, CA

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Florida St. (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Florida St. 55  Auburn 45

Average Score

Florida St. 39.7  Auburn 38.8

Outlier A

Florida St. 49-24

Outlier B

Auburn 52-37

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Florida St. by 12.8

PiRate Mean

Florida St. by 17.2

PiRate Bias

Florida St. by 14.0

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Teams in Italics are at-large selections

 

1 Little Caesar’s Simulation went 4 OT

 

1 Belk Bowl Simulation went 3 OT

 

2 Gator Bowl Simulations went 3 OT

 

1 Cotton Bowl Simulation went 5 OT

 

1 National Championship Game went 3 OT

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