PiRate Ratings: NFL for week 16–December 19-23, 2013

The Contenders

With two weeks to go in the regular season, there are still too many scenarios possible to list them all here.  We will do that next week.  For now, we will list the tiebreaking procedures and then show the standings by those procedures for the teams still in contention for playoff spots.

 

There are several tiebreaker levels, but realistically, none will go past a certain number and get into ridiculous point spread margins.

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties within a division, in order taken:

1. Head to Head—If one team swept the other, it is decided here

2. W-L-T in the division

3. W-L-T in common games

4. W-L-T in the conference

5. Strength of Victory (the combined W-L pct. of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of Schedule (the combined W-L pct. of all teams played)

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties outside of the division (for home field and wildcard use)

1. Head-to-Head

2. W-L-T in the conference

3. W-L-T in common games (but only if there are at least four such common games)

4. Strength of Victory

5. Strength of Schedule

 

Here is a look at the standings for all teams still in serious contention for the playoffs; we do not show Pittsburgh or the New York Jets, because so many things must happen for either to qualify, it is beyond normal possibility.  If they are still in contention next week, we will include them in this discussion.

 

A  F  C
Team	W-L-T	Division	Conf.	SOV	SOS
New England	10-4-0	3-2-0	7-3-0	.429	.474
Miami	8-6-0	2-2-0	7-3-0	.491	.520
Cincinnati	9-5-0	2-3-0	7-4-0	.488	.487
Baltimore	8-6-0	3-2-0	6-4-0	.415	.449
Indianapolis	9-5-0	5-0-0	7-3-0	.437	.480
Denver	11-3-0	4-1-0	7-3-0	.474	.505
Kansas City	11-3-0	2-3-0	7-3-0	.331	.408
San Diego	7-7-0	2-2-0	4-6-0	.524	.473
Head-to-Head Superiority
Baltimore over Miami
Cincinnati over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over New England
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Denver
Miami over Cincinnati
Miami over Indianapolis
Miami over San Diego
New England over Denver
N  F  C
Team	W-L-T	Division	Conf.	SOV	SOS
Philadelphia	8-6-0	3-2-0	7-3-0	.379	.449
Dallas	7-7-0	4-0-0	6-4-0	.362	.495
Chicago	8-6-0	2-3-0	4-6-0	.455	.452
Green Bay	7-6-1	2-2-1	5-5-1	.383	.454
Detroit	7-7-0	4-1-0	6-4-0	.429	.477
New Orleans	10-4-0	4-0-0	8-2-0	.493	.526
Carolina	10-4-0	3-1-0	7-3-0	.439	.497
Seattle	12-2-0	3-1-0	9-1-0	.438	.472
San Francisco	10-4-0	4-1-0	7-3-0	.418	.508
Arizona	9-5-0	1-3-0	5-5-0	.405	.495
Head-to-Head Superiority
Arizona over Carolina
Carolina over San Francisco
Detroit over Chicago
New Orleans over Arizona
New Orleans over Chicago
New Orleans over San Francisco
Philadelphia over Detroit
Seattle over Carolina
Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

 

A  F  C
Team	Wk 16	Wk 17
New England	at Baltimore	Buffalo
Miami	At Buffalo	New York Jets
Cincinnati	Minnesota	Baltimore
Baltimore	New England	at Cincinnati
Indianapolis	at Kansas City	Jacksonville
Denver	at Houston	at Oakland
Kansas City	Indianapolis	at San Diego
San Diego	Oakland	Kansas City
N  F  C
Team	Wk 16	Wk 17
Philadelphia	Chicago	at Dallas
Dallas	at Washington	Philadelphia
Chicago	at Philadelphia	Green Bay
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	at Chicago
Detroit	New York Giants	at Minnesota
New Orleans	at Carolina	Tampa Bay
Carolina	New Orleans	at Atlanta
Seattle	Arizona	St. Louis
San Francisco	Atlanta	at Arizona
Arizona	At Seattle	San Francisco

 

This is how we see the races ending as of this week:

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Detroit

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver *

Cincinnati over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Cincinnati *

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Seattle *

 

* How could we have the Chiefs beating Denver on the road for the AFC Conference Championship and then Seattle in the Super Bowl?  It would not be the first time that Kansas City finished in second place in the West, lost twice to the first place team, and then defeated that first place team to advance to and win the Super Bowl.

 

The 11-3 Chiefs did this in 1969.  The Oakland Raiders were the class of the AFL in 1969 with a 12-1-1 record, losing only to a Cincinnati Bengal team that had perhaps the greatest quarterback ever to play less than one full season (check out our story on Greg Cook from earlier in the year).

 

The 1969 Chiefs also lost to Cook and the Bengals, but they dropped both games to Oakland.  At 11-3, KC had to face the defending Super Bowl champion Jets in New York, and the Chiefs knocked them out by completely stopping Joe Namath from throwing deep.

 

Oakland easily destroyed Houston in the other first round game.  It was 28-0 after one quarter, and “The Mad Bomber,” the great Daryle Lamonica threw six touchdown passes that day.

 

Oakland hosted Kansas City in the final AFL game.  The Raiders were favored, but the Chiefs were not to be denied.  The KC defense did the same thing to Lamonica as they had done to Namath a week earlier, and the Chiefs won 17-7.

 

Kansas City was not done.  Prohibitive underdogs to Minnesota, Kansas City held the Vikings’ offense in check to win Super Bowl IV, 23-7.  All told in three playoff games, the Chiefs gave up 20 total points to the top two offenses in the AFL and top offense in the NFL.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	99.0	100.0	99.2
Dallas Cowboys	97.8	98.1	97.1
New York Giants	94.5	94.4	94.1
Washington Redskins	92.1	91.9	91.4
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	101.6	101.4	101.2
Detroit Lions	101.4	101.6	101.1
Green Bay Packers	98.6	97.8	97.8
Minnesota Vikings	97.3	97.3	97.1
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	105.8	106.6	106.6
Carolina Panthers	105.2	105.3	105.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.2	96.9	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	94.6	93.9	93.7
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle Seahawks	111.3	111.7	111.5
San Francisco 49ers	110.6	111.3	111.1
Arizona Cardinals	102.1	103.1	102.6
St. Louis Rams	100.4	101.4	101.0
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	104.6	103.0	104.4
Miami Dolphins	101.6	101.1	101.9
Buffalo Bills	96.3	95.7	96.3
New York Jets	91.8	90.8	91.9
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	106.3	106.4	106.4
Baltimore Ravens	102.8	102.5	102.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.4	99.4	99.8
Cleveland Browns	95.3	94.9	94.9
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	101.0	101.0	101.1
Tennessee Titans	97.3	97.6	97.5
Houston Texans	93.0	92.3	92.9
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.9	90.5	90.7
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	109.6	109.9	109.9
Kansas City Chiefs	105.3	106.4	105.8
San Diego Chargers	103.7	104.3	103.8
Oakland Raiders	91.6	91.5	91.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami	-2.8	-2.9	-3.1
Cincinnati	Minnesota	12.0	12.1	12.3
Kansas City	Indianapolis	7.3	8.4	7.7
St. Louis	Tampa Bay	6.2	7.5	6.7
N Y Jets	Cleveland	-1.0	-1.6	-0.5
Philadelphia	Chicago	0.4	1.6	1.0
Washington	Dallas	-2.7	-3.2	-2.7
Carolina	New Orleans	2.4	1.7	1.8
Jacksonville	Tennessee	-3.9	-4.6	-4.3
Houston	Denver	-14.1	-14.1	-14.5
Seattle	Arizona	12.2	11.6	11.9
Detroit	N Y Giants	9.9	10.2	10.0
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	2.0	1.2	0.8
San Diego	Oakland	15.1	15.8	15.1
Baltimore	New England	1.2	2.5	1.4
San Francisco	Atlanta	19.0	20.4	20.4

 

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