The Contenders
With two weeks to go in the regular season, there are still too many scenarios possible to list them all here. We will do that next week. For now, we will list the tiebreaking procedures and then show the standings by those procedures for the teams still in contention for playoff spots.
There are several tiebreaker levels, but realistically, none will go past a certain number and get into ridiculous point spread margins.
Here are the essential procedures for ties within a division, in order taken:
1. Head to Head—If one team swept the other, it is decided here
2. W-L-T in the division
3. W-L-T in common games
4. W-L-T in the conference
5. Strength of Victory (the combined W-L pct. of all teams defeated)
6. Strength of Schedule (the combined W-L pct. of all teams played)
Here are the essential procedures for ties outside of the division (for home field and wildcard use)
1. Head-to-Head
2. W-L-T in the conference
3. W-L-T in common games (but only if there are at least four such common games)
4. Strength of Victory
5. Strength of Schedule
Here is a look at the standings for all teams still in serious contention for the playoffs; we do not show Pittsburgh or the New York Jets, because so many things must happen for either to qualify, it is beyond normal possibility. If they are still in contention next week, we will include them in this discussion.
|
A F C |
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| Team |
W-L-T |
Division |
Conf. |
SOV |
SOS |
| New England |
10-4-0 |
3-2-0 |
7-3-0 |
.429 |
.474 |
| Miami |
8-6-0 |
2-2-0 |
7-3-0 |
.491 |
.520 |
| Cincinnati |
9-5-0 |
2-3-0 |
7-4-0 |
.488 |
.487 |
| Baltimore |
8-6-0 |
3-2-0 |
6-4-0 |
.415 |
.449 |
| Indianapolis |
9-5-0 |
5-0-0 |
7-3-0 |
.437 |
.480 |
| Denver |
11-3-0 |
4-1-0 |
7-3-0 |
.474 |
.505 |
| Kansas City |
11-3-0 |
2-3-0 |
7-3-0 |
.331 |
.408 |
| San Diego |
7-7-0 |
2-2-0 |
4-6-0 |
.524 |
.473 |
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|
|
|
|
|
Head-to-Head Superiority |
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|
Baltimore over Miami |
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Cincinnati over Indianapolis |
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Cincinnati over New England |
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Denver over Kansas City |
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Indianapolis over Denver |
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Miami over Cincinnati |
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Miami over Indianapolis |
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Miami over San Diego |
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New England over Denver |
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|
N F C |
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| Team |
W-L-T |
Division |
Conf. |
SOV |
SOS |
| Philadelphia |
8-6-0 |
3-2-0 |
7-3-0 |
.379 |
.449 |
| Dallas |
7-7-0 |
4-0-0 |
6-4-0 |
.362 |
.495 |
| Chicago |
8-6-0 |
2-3-0 |
4-6-0 |
.455 |
.452 |
| Green Bay |
7-6-1 |
2-2-1 |
5-5-1 |
.383 |
.454 |
| Detroit |
7-7-0 |
4-1-0 |
6-4-0 |
.429 |
.477 |
| New Orleans |
10-4-0 |
4-0-0 |
8-2-0 |
.493 |
.526 |
| Carolina |
10-4-0 |
3-1-0 |
7-3-0 |
.439 |
.497 |
| Seattle |
12-2-0 |
3-1-0 |
9-1-0 |
.438 |
.472 |
| San Francisco |
10-4-0 |
4-1-0 |
7-3-0 |
.418 |
.508 |
| Arizona |
9-5-0 |
1-3-0 |
5-5-0 |
.405 |
.495 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Head-to-Head Superiority |
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|
Arizona over Carolina |
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Carolina over San Francisco |
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Detroit over Chicago |
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New Orleans over Arizona |
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New Orleans over Chicago |
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New Orleans over San Francisco |
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Philadelphia over Detroit |
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Seattle over Carolina |
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Seattle over New Orleans |
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Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:
|
A F C |
||
| Team |
Wk 16 |
Wk 17 |
| New England |
at Baltimore |
Buffalo |
| Miami |
At Buffalo |
New York Jets |
| Cincinnati |
Minnesota |
Baltimore |
| Baltimore |
New England |
at Cincinnati |
| Indianapolis |
at Kansas City |
Jacksonville |
| Denver |
at Houston |
at Oakland |
| Kansas City |
Indianapolis |
at San Diego |
| San Diego |
Oakland |
Kansas City |
|
N F C |
||
| Team |
Wk 16 |
Wk 17 |
| Philadelphia |
Chicago |
at Dallas |
| Dallas |
at Washington |
Philadelphia |
| Chicago |
at Philadelphia |
Green Bay |
| Green Bay |
Pittsburgh |
at Chicago |
| Detroit |
New York Giants |
at Minnesota |
| New Orleans |
at Carolina |
Tampa Bay |
| Carolina |
New Orleans |
at Atlanta |
| Seattle |
Arizona |
St. Louis |
| San Francisco |
Atlanta |
at Arizona |
| Arizona |
At Seattle |
San Francisco |
This is how we see the races ending as of this week:
A F C
1. Denver
2. Cincinnati
3. New England
4. Indianapolis
5. Kansas City
6. Miami
N F C
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Philadelphia
4. Detroit
5. San Francisco
6. New Orleans
Wildcard Round
New England over Miami
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Philadelphia over New Orleans
San Francisco over Detroit
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Denver *
Cincinnati over New England
Seattle over San Francisco
Philadelphia over Carolina
Conference Championships
Kansas City over Cincinnati *
Seattle over Philadelphia
Super Bowl
Kansas City over Seattle *
* How could we have the Chiefs beating Denver on the road for the AFC Conference Championship and then Seattle in the Super Bowl? It would not be the first time that Kansas City finished in second place in the West, lost twice to the first place team, and then defeated that first place team to advance to and win the Super Bowl.
The 11-3 Chiefs did this in 1969. The Oakland Raiders were the class of the AFL in 1969 with a 12-1-1 record, losing only to a Cincinnati Bengal team that had perhaps the greatest quarterback ever to play less than one full season (check out our story on Greg Cook from earlier in the year).
The 1969 Chiefs also lost to Cook and the Bengals, but they dropped both games to Oakland. At 11-3, KC had to face the defending Super Bowl champion Jets in New York, and the Chiefs knocked them out by completely stopping Joe Namath from throwing deep.
Oakland easily destroyed Houston in the other first round game. It was 28-0 after one quarter, and “The Mad Bomber,” the great Daryle Lamonica threw six touchdown passes that day.
Oakland hosted Kansas City in the final AFL game. The Raiders were favored, but the Chiefs were not to be denied. The KC defense did the same thing to Lamonica as they had done to Namath a week earlier, and the Chiefs won 17-7.
Kansas City was not done. Prohibitive underdogs to Minnesota, Kansas City held the Vikings’ offense in check to win Super Bowl IV, 23-7. All told in three playoff games, the Chiefs gave up 20 total points to the top two offenses in the AFL and top offense in the NFL.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
|
Current NFL PiRate Ratings |
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|
N F C |
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| East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
99.0 |
100.0 |
99.2 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
97.8 |
98.1 |
97.1 |
| New York Giants |
94.5 |
94.4 |
94.1 |
| Washington Redskins |
92.1 |
91.9 |
91.4 |
| North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Chicago Bears |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.2 |
| Detroit Lions |
101.4 |
101.6 |
101.1 |
| Green Bay Packers |
98.6 |
97.8 |
97.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
97.3 |
97.3 |
97.1 |
| South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New Orleans Saints |
105.8 |
106.6 |
106.6 |
| Carolina Panthers |
105.2 |
105.3 |
105.4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
97.2 |
96.9 |
97.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
94.6 |
93.9 |
93.7 |
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|
|
|
|
| West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Seattle Seahawks |
111.3 |
111.7 |
111.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
110.6 |
111.3 |
111.1 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
102.1 |
103.1 |
102.6 |
| St. Louis Rams |
100.4 |
101.4 |
101.0 |
|
A F C |
|||
| East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New England Patriots |
104.6 |
103.0 |
104.4 |
| Miami Dolphins |
101.6 |
101.1 |
101.9 |
| Buffalo Bills |
96.3 |
95.7 |
96.3 |
| New York Jets |
91.8 |
90.8 |
91.9 |
| North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
106.3 |
106.4 |
106.4 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
102.8 |
102.5 |
102.8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
99.4 |
99.4 |
99.8 |
| Cleveland Browns |
95.3 |
94.9 |
94.9 |
| South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Indianapolis Colts |
101.0 |
101.0 |
101.1 |
| Tennessee Titans |
97.3 |
97.6 |
97.5 |
| Houston Texans |
93.0 |
92.3 |
92.9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
90.9 |
90.5 |
90.7 |
| West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Denver Broncos |
109.6 |
109.9 |
109.9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
105.3 |
106.4 |
105.8 |
| San Diego Chargers |
103.7 |
104.3 |
103.8 |
| Oakland Raiders |
91.6 |
91.5 |
91.7 |
This Week’s PiRate Spreads
| Home | Visitor |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
| Buffalo | Miami |
-2.8 |
-2.9 |
-3.1 |
| Cincinnati | Minnesota |
12.0 |
12.1 |
12.3 |
| Kansas City | Indianapolis |
7.3 |
8.4 |
7.7 |
| St. Louis | Tampa Bay |
6.2 |
7.5 |
6.7 |
| N Y Jets | Cleveland |
-1.0 |
-1.6 |
-0.5 |
| Philadelphia | Chicago |
0.4 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
| Washington | Dallas |
-2.7 |
-3.2 |
-2.7 |
| Carolina | New Orleans |
2.4 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee |
-3.9 |
-4.6 |
-4.3 |
| Houston | Denver |
-14.1 |
-14.1 |
-14.5 |
| Seattle | Arizona |
12.2 |
11.6 |
11.9 |
| Detroit | N Y Giants |
9.9 |
10.2 |
10.0 |
| Green Bay | Pittsburgh |
2.0 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
| San Diego | Oakland |
15.1 |
15.8 |
15.1 |
| Baltimore | New England |
1.2 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
| San Francisco | Atlanta |
19.0 |
20.4 |
20.4 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 