The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 18, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL for week 16–December 19-23, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:29 pm

The Contenders

With two weeks to go in the regular season, there are still too many scenarios possible to list them all here.  We will do that next week.  For now, we will list the tiebreaking procedures and then show the standings by those procedures for the teams still in contention for playoff spots.

 

There are several tiebreaker levels, but realistically, none will go past a certain number and get into ridiculous point spread margins.

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties within a division, in order taken:

1. Head to Head—If one team swept the other, it is decided here

2. W-L-T in the division

3. W-L-T in common games

4. W-L-T in the conference

5. Strength of Victory (the combined W-L pct. of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of Schedule (the combined W-L pct. of all teams played)

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties outside of the division (for home field and wildcard use)

1. Head-to-Head

2. W-L-T in the conference

3. W-L-T in common games (but only if there are at least four such common games)

4. Strength of Victory

5. Strength of Schedule

 

Here is a look at the standings for all teams still in serious contention for the playoffs; we do not show Pittsburgh or the New York Jets, because so many things must happen for either to qualify, it is beyond normal possibility.  If they are still in contention next week, we will include them in this discussion.

 

A  F  C

Team

W-L-T

Division

Conf.

SOV

SOS

New England

10-4-0

3-2-0

7-3-0

.429

.474

Miami

8-6-0

2-2-0

7-3-0

.491

.520

Cincinnati

9-5-0

2-3-0

7-4-0

.488

.487

Baltimore

8-6-0

3-2-0

6-4-0

.415

.449

Indianapolis

9-5-0

5-0-0

7-3-0

.437

.480

Denver

11-3-0

4-1-0

7-3-0

.474

.505

Kansas City

11-3-0

2-3-0

7-3-0

.331

.408

San Diego

7-7-0

2-2-0

4-6-0

.524

.473

 

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head Superiority

Baltimore over Miami

Cincinnati over Indianapolis

Cincinnati over New England

Denver over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Denver

Miami over Cincinnati

Miami over Indianapolis

Miami over San Diego

New England over Denver

 

N  F  C

Team

W-L-T

Division

Conf.

SOV

SOS

Philadelphia

8-6-0

3-2-0

7-3-0

.379

.449

Dallas

7-7-0

4-0-0

6-4-0

.362

.495

Chicago

8-6-0

2-3-0

4-6-0

.455

.452

Green Bay

7-6-1

2-2-1

5-5-1

.383

.454

Detroit

7-7-0

4-1-0

6-4-0

.429

.477

New Orleans

10-4-0

4-0-0

8-2-0

.493

.526

Carolina

10-4-0

3-1-0

7-3-0

.439

.497

Seattle

12-2-0

3-1-0

9-1-0

.438

.472

San Francisco

10-4-0

4-1-0

7-3-0

.418

.508

Arizona

9-5-0

1-3-0

5-5-0

.405

.495

 

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head Superiority

Arizona over Carolina

Carolina over San Francisco

Detroit over Chicago

New Orleans over Arizona

New Orleans over Chicago

New Orleans over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Detroit

Seattle over Carolina

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

 

A  F  C

Team

Wk 16

Wk 17

New England

at Baltimore

Buffalo

Miami

At Buffalo

New York Jets

Cincinnati

Minnesota

Baltimore

Baltimore

New England

at Cincinnati

Indianapolis

at Kansas City

Jacksonville

Denver

at Houston

at Oakland

Kansas City

Indianapolis

at San Diego

San Diego

Oakland

Kansas City

 

N  F  C

Team

Wk 16

Wk 17

Philadelphia

Chicago

at Dallas

Dallas

at Washington

Philadelphia

Chicago

at Philadelphia

Green Bay

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

at Chicago

Detroit

New York Giants

at Minnesota

New Orleans

at Carolina

Tampa Bay

Carolina

New Orleans

at Atlanta

Seattle

Arizona

St. Louis

San Francisco

Atlanta

at Arizona

Arizona

At Seattle

San Francisco

 

This is how we see the races ending as of this week:

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Detroit

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver *

Cincinnati over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Cincinnati *

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Seattle *

 

* How could we have the Chiefs beating Denver on the road for the AFC Conference Championship and then Seattle in the Super Bowl?  It would not be the first time that Kansas City finished in second place in the West, lost twice to the first place team, and then defeated that first place team to advance to and win the Super Bowl.

 

The 11-3 Chiefs did this in 1969.  The Oakland Raiders were the class of the AFL in 1969 with a 12-1-1 record, losing only to a Cincinnati Bengal team that had perhaps the greatest quarterback ever to play less than one full season (check out our story on Greg Cook from earlier in the year).

 

The 1969 Chiefs also lost to Cook and the Bengals, but they dropped both games to Oakland.  At 11-3, KC had to face the defending Super Bowl champion Jets in New York, and the Chiefs knocked them out by completely stopping Joe Namath from throwing deep.

 

Oakland easily destroyed Houston in the other first round game.  It was 28-0 after one quarter, and “The Mad Bomber,” the great Daryle Lamonica threw six touchdown passes that day.

 

Oakland hosted Kansas City in the final AFL game.  The Raiders were favored, but the Chiefs were not to be denied.  The KC defense did the same thing to Lamonica as they had done to Namath a week earlier, and the Chiefs won 17-7.

 

Kansas City was not done.  Prohibitive underdogs to Minnesota, Kansas City held the Vikings’ offense in check to win Super Bowl IV, 23-7.  All told in three playoff games, the Chiefs gave up 20 total points to the top two offenses in the AFL and top offense in the NFL.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

99.0

100.0

99.2

Dallas Cowboys

97.8

98.1

97.1

New York Giants

94.5

94.4

94.1

Washington Redskins

92.1

91.9

91.4

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

101.6

101.4

101.2

Detroit Lions

101.4

101.6

101.1

Green Bay Packers

98.6

97.8

97.8

Minnesota Vikings

97.3

97.3

97.1

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.8

106.6

106.6

Carolina Panthers

105.2

105.3

105.4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.2

96.9

97.3

Atlanta Falcons

94.6

93.9

93.7

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Seattle Seahawks

111.3

111.7

111.5

San Francisco 49ers

110.6

111.3

111.1

Arizona Cardinals

102.1

103.1

102.6

St. Louis Rams

100.4

101.4

101.0

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

104.6

103.0

104.4

Miami Dolphins

101.6

101.1

101.9

Buffalo Bills

96.3

95.7

96.3

New York Jets

91.8

90.8

91.9

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.3

106.4

106.4

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

102.5

102.8

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.4

99.4

99.8

Cleveland Browns

95.3

94.9

94.9

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

101.0

101.0

101.1

Tennessee Titans

97.3

97.6

97.5

Houston Texans

93.0

92.3

92.9

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.9

90.5

90.7

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

109.6

109.9

109.9

Kansas City Chiefs

105.3

106.4

105.8

San Diego Chargers

103.7

104.3

103.8

Oakland Raiders

91.6

91.5

91.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo Miami

-2.8

-2.9

-3.1

Cincinnati Minnesota

12.0

12.1

12.3

Kansas City Indianapolis

7.3

8.4

7.7

St. Louis Tampa Bay

6.2

7.5

6.7

N Y Jets Cleveland

-1.0

-1.6

-0.5

Philadelphia Chicago

0.4

1.6

1.0

Washington Dallas

-2.7

-3.2

-2.7

Carolina New Orleans

2.4

1.7

1.8

Jacksonville Tennessee

-3.9

-4.6

-4.3

Houston Denver

-14.1

-14.1

-14.5

Seattle Arizona

12.2

11.6

11.9

Detroit N Y Giants

9.9

10.2

10.0

Green Bay Pittsburgh

2.0

1.2

0.8

San Diego Oakland

15.1

15.8

15.1

Baltimore New England

1.2

2.5

1.4

San Francisco Atlanta

19.0

20.4

20.4

 

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