The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 19-23, 2013

Many Interesting Possible Trap Games This Week

As the season rounds the backstretch and heads for the wire, this week starts the trend of multiple trap games due to many factors.

 

Many teams have experienced a disappointment by not meeting expectations, yet they are bowl-eligible.  A team that is a disappointing 6-4 or 7-3 at this point will not get up to play its best.

 

As a counter to that, there are some teams that have stayed mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, when they were not expected to challenge for a .500 record.  Improving teams that are 4-6, 4-5, or 5-5 can be very dangerous, knowing that they can still get into a bowl.

 

Many teams enjoy an off week before a vital or rivalry game, while their opponent had to play the previous week.  Watch out for those teams coming off byes.  Any decent FBS coaching staff can discover and adjust a lot more when given an extra five to seven days to prepare.  Add rest to the banged up players, and this team plays its best games in this situation.

 

There is another factor.  Some teams began the year needing some added experience to reach their peak, and they are reaching their peak about now.  Other teams began with loads of experience and peaked in September.  They are sliding now, ripe for an upset loss.

 

Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities this week.

 

Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo qualifies as one of those teams that is peaking at the right time.  The Rockets have the talent and teamwork to end the Huskies’ BCS Bowl chances.  Look for an exciting, high scoring game, and Toledo has a 50-50 chance of pulling off the upset.

 

Navy at San Jose St: Navy is bowl eligible at 6-4; the Midshipmen are going to the Armed Forces Bowl regardless of the outcome of this game.  They are already looking forward to the Army game.  San Jose St. is 5-5 and needs one win in the last two to become bowl-eligible.  The other game is against Fresno St., so the Spartan players probably realize this is the game they must win.  Expect SJSU to bring their A-game, while Navy does not function on all cylinders.

 

USC at Colorado: On paper, this should be a major blowout.  However, Colorado is now in line for a bowl game if the Buffaloes can upset USC and win at Utah.  They would have to receive a waiver due to beating two FCS teams, but they had extenuating circumstances when they added Charleston Southern to the schedule after losing a game to the September flood in Boulder.  USC is due to bounce after the big upset win over Stanford.  While the Trojans should win, the margin could be a bunch less than expected.

 

Michigan St. at Northwestern: Northwestern was 4-0 when they took Ohio St. to the final minute of the game before losing.  The Wildcats have now lost six straight and must win their final two games to get back to a bowl.  With a weak Illinois team waiting, NU must pull off the big upset to finish 6-6.  Michigan St. can lose out and still make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.  The only way the Spartans can miss out now is to lose this game and to Minnesota, while Minnesota upsets Wisconsin.  In other words, the Spartans are already thinking about Ohio St.  Look for NU to cover the spread, and if MSU is really flat, watch out.

 

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: This game qualifies under two factors.  Oklahoma has been a disappointment and is looking forward to the rivalry game at Oklahoma St.  Kansas St. is peaking at the right time, and the Wildcats have a chance to move past the Sooners in the Big 12 standings.  KSU should be sky high for this game, while OU acts like they’d rather be taking a nap.

 

Memphis at Louisville: You might think this is a joke.  We don’t concur.  Memphis is 3-6 with games to be played against Temple and UConn.  It is reasonable to expect that the Tigers can win both games.  They need this upset win to make the final two meaningful.  Additionally, Memphis would like to show UL that this is still a fierce rivalry.  As for the Cardinals, they meet two of our qualifications.  This season is now a disappointment (they expected to go 12-0), and they peaked weeks ago.  UL is primed for one more loss before the bowls.

 

Michigan at Iowa: Michigan peaked earlier in the season, and now the Wolverines are treading water trying not to go under.  Ohio St. looms two weeks ahead.  Iowa had a week off, and the Hawkeyes are still improving.  Look for the black and gold to play with more effort than the maize and blue.

 

Wisconsin at Minnesota: Consider this one a cousin to our theories.  Wisconsin has not peaked, and this is a key rivalry game that they want to win.  The Badgers still have a shot at an at-large BCS Bowl berth.  Minnesota has even more to play for.  If they upset Wisconsin and Michigan St. loses to Northwestern, the Gophers will play Sparty for the Legends Division title the following week.  The Gophers are peaking in November, so this game should be one of the most entertaining rivalry games this year.  Paul Bunyan’s axe may stay in Madison, but we think this game will be close.

 

Utah at Washington St.: This is a tossup game to begin with, but Utah has more to play for.  The Cougars believe they can topple their arch-rival Huskies in the Apple Cup game on Black Friday, and they might be taking a peak forward.  Utah is perhaps the best 4-6 team in the nation, and the Utes must win out to go bowling.

 

Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Tennessee has three things going for it in this game.  The Volunteers were not expected to play above .500 in Butch Jones’ first year on the hill.  However, wins in this game and at Kentucky next week will send the Orange to Memphis and the Liberty Bowl.  Tennessee had a week off while Vanderbilt played a tough game against Kentucky.  Now, add the revenge factor after Vandy put the biggest embarrassment on the UT football program since the Vols lost to Chattanooga decades ago, and even though the black and gold looks to be 14-20 points more talented, we believe this game will be decided in the final minutes.

 

For The Third Time Ever

It happened in 1974 and again in 1983, and for just the third time, it happens again this weekend.  Florida St. is a 70+ point PiRate Rating favorite against Idaho.

 

We do not have the records for 1969 through 1988, but we do have our memories.  In September of 1974, Oklahoma was a 70-something point favorite over Wake Forest.  What we do remember is that the Deacons came into that game not having won in their previous 13, while Oklahoma had not lost in their previous 20.  We think the actual spread was 74 points (we did not have decimals in those days, just whole numbers).  The Sooners won that game 72-3.

 

In 1983, Nebraska played Minnesota as a 71-point favorite in our ratings.  In the early 1980’s, we actually predicted scores, and our prediction for that game was 77-6.  The actual final was 84-13, an exact 71-point margin.

 

We missed on several 70-point wins in the past.  When Houston almost hung 100 on SMU and won 95-21 back in the late 1980’s, we had the Cougars favored by 59.  We did not rate teams in 1968, but this is the weekend anniversary of Houston’s 100-6 win over Tulsa in 1968.  Florida St. could score 100 points in this game, but they will not do so.  Expect the starters to come out as early as the start of the second quarter.  The Seminoles could lead 42-0 after one quarter and 56-0 by halftime, but Jimbo Fisher will not allow his team to score 44 more points, even though FSU could score 112 points in this game (4 TDs per quarter).

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

136.5

2

Florida St.

136.2

3

Oregon

133.1

4

Baylor

130.7

5

Ohio St.

128.5

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Oklahoma St.

124.0

8

Arizona St.

124.0

9

Missouri

123.8

10

Wisconsin

123.6

11

L S U

122.6

12

Clemson

121.5

13

Texas A&M

121.5

14

Michigan St.

120.4

15

Washington

119.7

16

Ole Miss

119.3

17

U S C

119.1

18

U C L A

119.1

19

Auburn

119.1

20

South Carolina

119.1

21

Texas

115.8

22

Oklahoma

115.8

23

Oregon St.

115.4

24

Georgia

115.0

25

B Y U

114.9

26

Louisville

114.4

27

Kansas St.

114.0

28

Florida

112.4

29

Arizona

111.9

30

Michigan

111.8

31

Nebraska

111.5

32

Georgia Tech

110.8

33

Miami

110.8

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Utah

110.3

36

Northwestern

108.5

37

Vanderbilt

108.2

38

Mississippi St.

108.2

39

Texas Tech

107.5

40

Cincinnati

107.4

41

North Carolina

107.3

42

Virginia Tech

107.3

43

Iowa

106.8

44

Fresno St.

106.7

45

T C U

106.7

46

Central Florida

106.6

47

East Carolina

106.5

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Duke

105.2

50

Boise St.

105.2

51

Utah St.

105.1

52

Northern Illinois

104.8

53

Penn St.

104.4

54

Bowling Green

104.4

55

Washington St.

104.0

56

Houston

102.7

57

Tennessee

102.2

58

Boston College

101.7

59

Indiana

101.7

60

Toledo

101.5

61

West Virginia

101.0

62

Marshall

100.7

63

Pittsburgh

100.4

64

Ball St.

100.0

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Buffalo

99.7

67

Syracuse

98.9

68

Rice

98.3

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Kentucky

98.2

71

Maryland

97.0

72

Illinois

96.9

73

Navy

96.8

74

Colorado St.

96.3

75

Arkansas

95.9

76

San Jose St.

95.8

77

S M U

95.1

78

San Diego St.

93.7

79

Kansas

93.5

80

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.3

81

Arkansas St.

93.2

82

Rutgers

93.1

83

Iowa St.

91.7

84

Florida Atlantic

91.2

85

Memphis

91.1

86

North Carolina St.

91.0

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Colorado

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Temple

89.6

91

California

89.5

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Ohio

89.1

94

Middle Tennessee

88.4

95

Tulane

87.5

96

U N L V

87.2

97

South Florida

86.6

98

Purdue

86.6

99

Kent St.

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Tulsa

85.9

103

South Alabama

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Troy

83.2

107

Hawaii

83.0

108

Central Michigan

82.4

109

Akron

82.2

110

Texas St.

82.1

111

Army

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.3

113

Air Force

79.3

114

Louisiana Tech

78.9

115

U T E P

78.6

116

U A B

77.5

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.8

119

New Mexico St.

72.7

120

Eastern Michigan

71.1

121

Miami (O)

70.5

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Florida Int’l

66.1

124

Georgia St.

64.8

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

140.2

2

Alabama

132.7

3

Oregon

129.6

4

Ohio St.

127.5

5

Wisconsin

124.5

6

Baylor

124.2

7

Arizona St.

123.1

8

Clemson

123.0

9

Missouri

122.0

10

Michigan St.

121.0

11

L S U

120.4

12

Texas A&M

119.3

13

Stanford

119.0

14

Auburn

118.4

15

South Carolina

116.5

16

Ole Miss

116.3

17

Oklahoma St.

116.0

18

U S C

115.8

19

Washington

115.6

20

U C L A

114.5

21

B Y U

113.7

22

Louisville

113.5

23

Georgia

112.8

24

Miami

111.8

25

Michigan

111.8

26

Oklahoma

110.9

27

Georgia Tech

110.1

28

Nebraska

109.9

29

Houston

109.8

30

Central Florida

109.7

31

Florida

109.5

32

North Carolina

108.8

33

Notre Dame

108.6

34

East Carolina

108.5

35

Arizona

108.3

36

Virginia Tech

108.1

37

Utah

108.1

38

Oregon St.

108.0

39

Cincinnati

107.6

40

Texas

107.5

41

Northern Illinois

107.4

42

Kansas St.

106.8

43

Duke

106.6

44

Minnesota

106.6

45

Vanderbilt

106.5

46

Fresno St.

106.4

47

Northwestern

106.1

48

Iowa

106.0

49

Mississippi St.

105.8

50

Bowling Green

105.3

51

Penn St.

105.0

52

Marshall

104.1

53

Toledo

103.7

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Ball St.

103.3

56

Utah St.

103.3

57

Washington St.

103.1

58

Boston College

102.8

59

Texas Tech

102.6

60

North Texas

102.4

61

Boise St.

101.9

62

Buffalo

101.8

63

Rice

101.1

64

T C U

101.1

65

Tennessee

101.1

66

Wake Forest

101.1

67

Maryland

100.2

68

Pittsburgh

99.8

69

Syracuse

98.9

70

Illinois

98.7

71

Navy

98.6

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

97.0

74

S M U

96.6

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

95.8

77

Memphis

95.8

78

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.0

79

North Carolina St.

94.4

80

West Virginia

94.2

81

San Jose St.

93.4

82

Middle Tennessee

93.2

83

San Diego St.

92.7

84

Arkansas St.

92.5

85

Ohio

92.4

86

U T S A

92.4

87

Western Kentucky

91.9

88

Florida Atlantic

91.7

89

Temple

91.2

90

Tulane

90.9

91

Virginia

90.8

92

Colorado

90.2

93

Kansas

89.2

94

Kent St.

89.1

95

U N L V

88.8

96

South Alabama

88.7

97

Nevada

87.5

98

Army

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

100

Wyoming

86.7

101

Texas St.

86.6

102

Akron

85.9

103

Troy

85.8

104

California

85.7

105

Tulsa

85.2

106

New Mexico

85.0

107

Central Michigan

84.7

108

Purdue

84.3

109

South Florida

84.0

110

Iowa St.

83.7

111

Hawaii

83.2

112

Air Force

82.7

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

U T E P

80.7

115

Connecticut

80.0

116

U A B

78.4

117

Massachusetts

77.8

118

Western Michigan

77.5

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Eastern Michigan

73.7

121

Miami (O)

73.5

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Georgia St.

70.5

124

Florida Int’l

68.1

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Bias

1

Florida St.

138.1

2

Alabama

137.2

3

Oregon

133.7

4

Baylor

132.8

5

Ohio St.

128.7

6

Stanford

125.4

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Oklahoma St.

124.3

9

Arizona St.

123.6

10

Missouri

123.2

11

L S U

123.1

12

Clemson

123.0

13

Texas A&M

121.3

14

Michigan St.

120.0

15

Auburn

119.2

16

U S C

119.1

17

Washington

119.1

18

Ole Miss

118.6

19

U C L A

118.1

20

South Carolina

118.0

21

B Y U

115.9

22

Oklahoma

115.3

23

Louisville

114.9

24

Georgia

114.5

25

Texas

114.4

26

Oregon St.

113.7

27

Kansas St.

113.2

28

Florida

111.2

29

Miami

110.8

30

Michigan

110.8

31

Georgia Tech

110.5

32

Utah

110.4

33

Nebraska

110.3

34

Arizona

110.1

35

Notre Dame

109.0

36

Mississippi St.

108.6

37

North Carolina

108.4

38

Northwestern

108.3

39

Vanderbilt

108.0

40

Central Florida

107.7

41

East Carolina

107.3

42

Cincinnati

107.2

43

Iowa

107.1

44

Virginia Tech

106.9

45

Texas Tech

106.7

46

Boise St.

106.6

47

Utah St.

106.6

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Fresno St.

106.3

50

T C U

106.2

51

Northern Illinois

105.8

52

Bowling Green

105.2

53

Duke

104.8

54

Washington St.

104.8

55

Houston

104.3

56

Penn St.

103.3

57

Boston College

102.9

58

Toledo

102.7

59

Marshall

102.1

60

Indiana

101.2

61

Buffalo

101.1

62

Tennessee

101.1

63

North Texas

100.9

64

Ball St.

100.8

65

Pittsburgh

100.3

66

West Virginia

100.0

67

Rice

99.0

68

Wake Forest

98.8

69

Syracuse

98.4

70

Kentucky

98.4

71

Maryland

98.2

72

Navy

97.2

73

Colorado St.

97.2

74

Illinois

96.4

75

San Jose St.

96.2

76

Arkansas

94.7

77

S M U

94.6

78

San Diego St.

94.2

79

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.6

80

Arkansas St.

93.3

81

Kansas

93.1

82

Rutgers

93.0

83

Florida Atlantic

92.3

84

Memphis

91.8

85

North Carolina St.

91.4

86

Iowa St.

90.3

87

U T S A

90.2

88

Western Kentucky

89.7

89

Middle Tennessee

89.4

90

Ohio

89.4

91

Temple

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Colorado

88.4

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

California

87.5

97

Kent St.

86.5

98

Wyoming

86.3

99

South Alabama

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

South Florida

86.1

102

Nevada

85.9

103

Tulsa

84.8

104

Troy

84.2

105

Purdue

84.1

106

Hawaii

83.6

107

Army

83.4

108

Connecticut

82.9

109

Akron

82.6

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Central Michigan

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Air Force

79.1

114

Louisiana Tech

78.2

115

U T E P

78.0

116

U A B

76.4

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

72.9

119

New Mexico St.

72.6

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

69.1

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Georgia St.

66.1

124

Florida Int’l

65.5

125

Southern Miss.

63.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

5-1

9-1

114.4

113.5

114.9

Cincinnati

5-1

8-2

107.4

107.6

107.2

Central Florida

5-0

8-1

106.6

109.7

107.7

Houston

4-2

7-3

102.7

109.8

104.3

S M U

3-2

4-5

95.1

96.6

94.6

Rutgers

2-3

5-4

93.1

95.8

93.0

Memphis

1-4

3-6

91.1

95.8

91.8

Temple

0-6

1-9

89.6

91.2

89.4

South Florida

2-3

2-7

86.6

84.0

86.1

Connecticut

0-5

0-9

83.5

80.0

82.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

97.0

98.4

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

8-0

10-0

136.2

140.2

138.1

Clemson

7-1

9-1

121.5

123.0

123.0

Boston College

3-3

6-4

101.7

102.8

102.9

Syracuse

3-3

5-5

98.9

98.9

98.4

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

2-4

6-4

97.0

100.2

98.2

North Carolina St.

0-7

3-7

91.0

94.4

91.4

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

5-3

6-4

110.8

110.1

110.5

Miami

3-3

7-3

110.8

111.8

110.8

North Carolina

4-3

5-5

107.3

108.8

108.4

Virginia Tech

4-3

7-4

107.3

108.1

106.9

Duke

4-2

8-2

105.2

106.6

104.8

Pittsburgh

2-4

5-5

100.4

99.8

100.3

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.4

106.9

105.8

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

6-0

9-0

130.7

124.2

132.8

Oklahoma St.

6-1

9-1

124.0

116.0

124.3

Texas

6-1

7-3

115.8

107.5

114.4

Oklahoma

5-2

8-2

115.8

110.9

115.3

Kansas St.

4-3

6-4

114.0

106.8

113.2

Texas Tech

4-4

7-4

107.5

102.6

106.7

T C U

2-6

4-7

106.7

101.1

106.2

West Virginia

2-6

4-7

101.0

94.2

100.0

Kansas

1-6

3-7

93.5

89.2

93.1

Iowa St.

0-7

1-9

91.7

83.7

90.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.6

109.6

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

6-0

10-0

128.5

127.5

128.7

Wisconsin

5-1

8-2

123.6

124.5

124.8

Penn St.

3-3

6-4

104.4

105.0

103.3

Indiana

2-4

4-6

101.7

103.4

101.2

Illinois

0-6

3-7

96.9

98.7

96.4

Purdue

0-6

1-9

86.6

84.3

84.1

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

6-0

9-1

120.4

121.0

120.0

Michigan

3-3

7-3

111.8

111.8

110.8

Nebraska

4-2

7-3

111.5

109.9

110.3

Northwestern

0-6

4-6

108.5

106.1

108.3

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

6-1

8-2

106.5

108.5

107.3

Marshall

5-1

7-3

100.7

104.1

102.1

Florida Atlantic

3-4

4-6

91.2

91.7

92.3

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-5

2-8

77.5

78.4

76.4

Florida Int’l

1-5

1-9

66.1

68.1

65.5

Southern Miss.

0-6

0-10

64.6

64.6

63.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

5-1

7-3

98.3

101.1

99.0

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-5

2-8

85.9

85.2

84.8

Louisiana Tech

3-3

4-6

78.9

81.0

78.2

U T E P

1-5

2-8

78.6

80.7

78.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.7

88.7

86.8

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

7-3

114.9

113.7

115.9

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

6-4

96.8

98.6

97.2

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.7

91.0

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

5-1

7-3

104.4

105.3

105.2

Buffalo

5-1

7-3

99.7

101.8

101.1

Ohio

3-3

6-4

89.1

92.4

89.4

Kent St.

2-5

3-8

86.3

89.1

86.5

Akron

3-4

4-7

82.2

85.9

82.6

Massachusetts

1-5

1-9

72.8

77.8

72.9

Miami (O)

0-6

0-10

70.5

73.5

69.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

6-0

10-0

104.8

107.4

105.8

Toledo

5-1

7-3

101.5

103.7

102.7

Ball St.

6-1

9-2

100.0

103.3

100.8

Central Michigan

3-3

4-6

82.4

84.7

82.0

Western Michigan

1-6

1-10

75.6

77.5

75.5

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.0

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

5-1

7-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

4-2

6-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-4

4-6

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-5

3-7

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-3

5-5

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

5-1

6-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

3-5

4-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-7

0-10

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.1

92.3

92.6

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

6-1

9-1

133.1

129.6

133.7

Stanford

6-2

8-2

126.0

119.0

125.4

Washington

3-4

6-4

119.7

115.6

119.1

Oregon St.

4-3

6-4

115.4

108.0

113.7

Washington St.

3-4

5-5

104.0

103.1

104.8

California

0-8

1-10

89.5

85.7

87.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

6-1

8-2

124.0

123.1

123.6

U S C

5-2

8-3

119.1

115.8

119.1

U C L A

5-2

8-2

119.1

114.5

118.1

Arizona

3-4

6-4

111.9

108.3

110.1

Utah

1-6

4-6

110.3

108.1

110.4

Colorado

1-6

4-6

89.9

90.2

88.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.5

110.1

112.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

119.1

116.5

118.0

Georgia

4-3

6-4

115.0

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-5

4-6

112.4

109.5

111.2

Vanderbilt

3-4

6-4

108.2

106.5

108.0

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-6

2-8

98.2

97.0

98.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

7-0

10-0

136.5

132.7

137.2

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Ole Miss

3-3

7-3

119.3

116.3

118.6

Auburn

6-1

10-1

119.1

118.4

119.2

Mississippi St.

1-5

4-6

108.2

105.8

108.6

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

5-0

8-2

93.3

95.0

93.6

Arkansas St.

4-1

6-4

93.2

92.5

93.3

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

South Alabama

1-3

3-6

85.9

88.7

86.3

Troy

3-3

5-6

83.2

85.8

84.2

Texas St.

2-3

6-4

82.1

86.6

82.3

Georgia St.

0-5

0-10

64.8

70.5

66.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.8

87.2

85.2

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

8-3

85.7

87.2

92.0

Georgia Southern

 

6-3

82.9

85.3

90.0

Appalachian St.

 

2-8

73.4

72.3

80.1

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.8

76.7

81.6

 

This Week’s Spreads

Date:

November 19-23, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Buffalo

-26.7

-25.8

-29.5

Ohio Kent St.

5.3

5.8

5.4

Toledo Northern Illinois

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

Central Florida Rutgers

16.5

16.9

17.7

U A B Rice

-18.3

-20.2

-20.1

Air Force U N L V

-4.9

-3.1

-5.7

San Jose St. Navy

2.5

-1.7

2.5

Stanford California

39.0

35.8

40.4

Arizona Oregon

-18.2

-18.3

-20.6

U C L A Arizona St.

-1.9

-5.6

-2.5

Colorado U S C

-26.2

-22.6

-27.7

Northwestern Michigan St.

-8.9

-11.9

-8.7

Kansas St. Oklahoma

1.2

-1.1

0.9

Louisville Memphis

26.3

20.7

26.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia

24.7

24.0

24.7

Wake Forest Duke

-4.4

-3.0

-3.5

Houston Cincinnati

-1.7

5.2

0.1

Iowa Michigan

-2.0

-2.8

-0.7

Purdue Illinois

-7.8

-11.9

-9.8

Arkansas Mississippi St.

-9.3

-4.5

-10.9

North Carolina St. East Carolina

-13.0

-11.6

-13.4

Syracuse Pittsburgh

1.5

2.1

1.1

Central Michigan Massachusetts

12.1

9.4

11.6

Eastern Michigan Bowling Green

-30.8

-29.1

-32.7

Wyoming Hawaii

6.6

7.5

6.7

Arkansas St. Georgia St.

31.4

25.0

30.2

Florida Atlantic New Mexico St.

21.5

18.9

22.7

Florida St. Idaho

71.6

71.7

73.7

Ohio St. Indiana

29.8

27.1

30.5

L S U Texas A&M

4.1

4.1

4.8

Minnesota Wisconsin

-14.2

-14.9

-15.4

Notre Dame B Y U

-1.2

-2.1

-3.9

Maryland Boston College

-1.7

0.4

-1.7

Penn St. Nebraska

-4.1

-1.9

-4.0

North Texas U T S A

11.8

12.5

13.2

Washington St. Utah

-3.3

-3.0

-2.6

Utah St. Colorado St.

11.8

10.0

12.4

Southern Miss. Middle Tennessee

-21.8

-26.6

-23.9

Tulane U T E P

11.4

12.7

12.4

Fresno St. New Mexico

28.4

24.4

27.4

Florida Int’l Marshall

-32.1

-33.5

-34.1

Georgia Kentucky

19.8

18.8

19.1

South Alabama UL-Monroe

2.3

4.3

2.7

South Florida S M U

-5.5

-9.6

-5.5

Temple Connecticut

8.1

13.2

8.5

Texas St. Western Kentucky

-4.5

-2.3

-4.4

Louisiana Tech Tulsa

-4.0

-1.2

-3.6

Tennessee Vanderbilt

-3.0

-2.4

-3.9

Ole Miss Missouri

-1.5

-2.7

-1.6

Oklahoma St. Baylor

-3.7

-5.2

-5.5

Iowa St. Kansas

1.2

-2.5

0.2

San Diego St. Boise St.

-8.5

-6.2

-9.4

Oregon St. Washington

-1.3

-4.6

-2.4

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

U C L A

Famous Idaho Potato

Arizona *

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

San Diego St.

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Washington St. *

Military Bowl

Georgia Tech

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Michigan

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U %

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Iowa

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy %

Music City

Syracuse

vs.

Georgia

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Arizona St.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Buffalo *

vs.

North Carolina

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U S C

Liberty

Tennessee

vs.

East Carolina

Chick-fil-A

Duke

vs.

Texas A&M

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Bowling Green *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Ole Miss

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Oregon

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Ohio St.

vs.

Clemson

BBVA Compass Bowl

Houston

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

% Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

Bowl-Eligible Teams Left Out      
Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

Ohio

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

U T S A

 

 

 

 

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