The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 11, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 12-16, 2013

Big Week Ahead

For the rabid fan of college football in general, this is the best week of the season to date.  There may not be as many marquee games as last week, but overall there are more meaningful games in this week’s schedule than any other week to this point.

 

Here is an abridged version of what we are calling key games.

 

AAC

Cincinnati (4-1/7-2) at Rutgers (2-2/5-3)

Quietly, Tommy Tuberville has the Bearcats in contention in the AAC.  While we do not believe UC can win the league, this game is crucial in bowl priorities.  The winner will have the advantage over the loser for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, while the loser could be looking at Birmingham.

 

Houston (4-1/7-2) at Louisville (4-1/8-1)

The horse is already out of the barn for these two teams, as they need Central Florida to lose twice to have a shot at winning the league’s BCS Bowl bid.  Still, this is an important game for possible second place in the AAC.  It should be an interesting game as well.

 

ACC

Georgia Tech (5-2/6-3) at Clemson (6-1/8-1)

The underdog is the team still in the race for the league title game.  Georgia Tech now finds itself in the lead in the ACC Coastal Division by a half-game over Virginia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets must win this game to have a chance to take the division title, and they need for Miami and Virginia Tech to lose or one of those teams to lose, while Duke wins out.  Ga. Tech loses in head-to-head tiebreakers with the Hurricanes and Hokies, but they hold the tiebreaker over Duke.

 

Clemson can win out at 11-1, and the best the Tigers can probably hope for is a return visit to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl.  Florida St. has already clinched the Atlantic Division title.

 

Syracuse (3-2/5-4) at Florida St. (7-0/9-0)

Could this be a trap game for the Seminoles?  On paper, it looks like another possible 49-10 type of game.  At the extreme, most experts cannot see this game being any closer than 17-20 points.

 

But, and there is a big one here, Syracuse’s defense has come to life in a big way, and the players are really confident that they can stop anybody.  Yes, the great stands came against inferior offenses, but SU will go into this game believing it can force turnover on FSU and keep the Seminoles from scoring 35 points in the first 20 minutes of the game, like they have in recent weeks.

 

We believe this game will be important for more other reasons.  From this game, Alabama will learn a lot about what works and what does not against the ‘Nole offense.  Additionally, Syracuse will find some holes up front in the FSU defense, and these vulnerabilities will be exploitable by the Crimson Tide running game if these two powers meet for all the marbles.

 

Boston College (2-3/5-4) at North Carolina St. (0-6/3-6)

This is a big trap game for the Eagles, as the Wolfpack must go 3-0 to get back to a bowl.  Boston College could be in jeopardy of going to a bowl if they lose this game.  At 6-6, BC would lose out to almost any other 6-6 team in the ACC if there was just one bowl bid left to give out, because they have not travelled well to recent bowl games.  Also, if there is an at-large spot out there, the Eagles can forget being invited at 6-6, because there will be a surplus of 7-win teams needing at-large invitations.

 

North Carolina (3-3/4-5) at Pittsburgh (2-3/5-4)

This is purely and simply a bowl-elimination game.  The loser of this contest has a razor’s edge chance of earning a bowl invitation, even if they recover to finish 6-6.  The ACC is going to have more bowl-eligible teams than they have bowl allotments, and 6-6 may not be good enough to garner a bid.

 

North Carolina is this year’s version of Rice.  The Tar Heels were 1-5 and have no won three in a row with an excellent chance of running the table to 7-5 or finishing 6-6.

 

Pittsburgh now has a rather substantial win over Notre Dame on its resume, and a win here makes the Panthers a strong bowl-eligible 6-4 with a good chance for at least a 7-5 finish.  In the ACC, if either school is 7-5, that team will definitely go bowling.

 

It is not totally impossible that UNC could still sneak up and win the division.  If Duke wins its next two games, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson this week, and Virginia Tech loses one more game, the Tar Heels will be playing Duke for the ACC Coastal Division flag.

 

Maryland (1-4/5-4) at Virginia Tech (4-2/7-3)

Virginia Tech recovered from the unexpected two-game losing streak to knock off Miami and throw the Coastal Division race wide open.  The Hokies have the best chance at winning the division, and they will do so at 6-2 if Duke loses a game.  A loss here probably eliminates them from the race.

 

As for Maryland, the Terps have tanked since September.  What looked like a for sure bowl team thanks to a very week schedule, UM now is on the verge of playing itself to bubble status and even possibly to a 5-7 record.  Coach Randy Edsall may have been a mistake hire in College Park, and the fans and media have turned against him.  A loss in this game coupled with a loss to Boston College or North Carolina St. probably keeps Maryland at home for the holidays and possibly sends Edsall on his way out of town.

 

Miami (3-2/7-2) at Duke (3-2/7-2)

Are you kiddin’ me?  Duke, the perennial doormat of the ACC, can be in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal Division title by beating Miami this week?  If the Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson, then that is indeed the case, because Duke will control its own destiny with remaining games against Wake Forest and North Carolina.

 

Miami still has a shot at recovering to meet Florida St. in a rematch in Charlotte.  The Hurricanes are hurting though, and we are not sure they have the manpower to recover fully.  The final game at Pittsburgh looks like a tough trap game, and the “U” must finish ahead of Virginia Tech in the standings to win the division.  We say, it will not happen.

 

 

Big Ten

Michigan St. (5-0/8-1) at Nebraska (4-1/7-2)

Two weeks ago, Nebraska looked dead in the Legends Division race after losing to Minnesota.  With a road game at Michigan, it was merely a formality that the Cornhuskers would be eliminated from the race.  However, the the Black Shirt Defense re-emerged to knock the Wolverines out of the race, and now this game should decide it all.

 

Michigan St. benefits from an extra week of preparation, and Coach Mark Dantonio should have his Spartans prepared to win on the road.  If Michigan St. continues to play with the same enthusiasm, confidence, and poise that it has in recent weeks, this Spartan team is more than capable of winning at Lincoln and knocking off Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game.

 

Michigan (2-3/6-3) at Northwestern (0-5/4-5)

Six weeks ago, this looked like a pivotal game in the Legends Division race.  Today it is pivotal for Northwestern.  The Wildcats began the season 4-0, and in game five, they were in contention to beat Ohio St. before some late shenanigans cost them the game.  NU never recovered, and the losing streak has extended to five straight.  If this one is the sixth, then you can stick a fork in their bowl chances.

 

Michigan is bowl eligible, but the Wolverines expected more.  Short of upsetting Ohio St., this can only be a major disappointment.  UM has not returned to the top like most fans expected they would under Brady Hoke.  The once unstoppable ground game is now laughable, and a loss Saturday might be enough for the fans to start calling for the hook on Hoke.

 

Baylor (5-0/8-0) vs. Texas Tech (4-3/7-3) at Arlington, TX

Baylor needs to jump three teams in the BCS standings to make it to the National Championship Game, but we cannot see that happening.  Chances are better that the Bears will lose a game rather than win out, and a loss could drop them all the way to the Cotton Bowl.

 

This game at one time might have given the Bears a chance to move ahead of a Stanford or Ohio St. in the standings, but Texas Tech has dropped three games in a row.  Still, this is a must-win for BU.  They need a USC upset of Stanford, an Ohio St. loss to Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game, and then a monumental upset of either Florida St. or Alabama.  Assuming Baylor can run the table, the chances for the rest of the dominoes to fall are about 5%.

 

 

Big 12

Oklahoma St. (5-1/8-1) at Texas (6-0/7-2)

Texas was given up for dead after being embarrassed in consecutive games with Ole Miss and BYU.  However, these were not league games, and the Longhorns have righted the ship with a 6-0 league mark.

 

Oklahoma St. has not been a juggernaut like recent editions, but the Cowboys too have appeared to have gotten on track.

 

The winner of this game becomes Baylor’s competition for the conference championship.  The Bears must still play both teams, and the winner of this game will earn the Fiesta Bowl bid if they can also beat the Bears.

 

It appears to us that if either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois automatically qualifies for a BCS Bowl bid, the Big 12 will place just one team in BCS Bowls, and the runner-up will have to settle for some cotton.

 

 

Pac-12

Washington (3-3/6-3) at UCLA (4-2/7-2)

The Huskies are playing for bowl status, hoping to stay ahead of most of the Pac-12 South teams, and a win here keeps them in contention for the Holiday Bowl.

 

UCLA is in a heated battle with USC and Arizona St. for the South Division flag.  A loss here will be devastating.  The Bruins must still play both ASU and USC.  All of a sudden, Rose Bowl aspirations look so much easier than they did a week ago.

 

Stanford (6-1/8-1) at USC (4-2/7-3)

Any football fan can see that the Cardinal are riding into an ambush in a major trap game.  Southern Cal is loose with nothing to lose, while Stanford must win to stay ahead of Oregon in the North Division.

 

USC is still very much alive in the Pac-12 South race.  The Trojans are 4-1 since Lane Kiffin was let go, and that one loss was a narrow one at Notre Dame.  If USC wins this game, interim coach Ed Orgeron might actually move to the top of the list in the search for the next full-time coach.  Coach O can recruit with the best of them, so it isn’t impossible.

 

Of course, a loss here coupled with a loss to UCLA, and Coach O will be on the go.

 

Oregon St. (4-2/6-3) at Arizona St. (5-1/7-2)

Arizona St. narrowly escaped the upset bug at Utah Saturday night, while Oregon St. benefitted by having a week off to try to regroup.  This leads to this game becoming much tighter and more competitive.

 

Arizona St. controls its own destiny as the South Division leader, but the Sun Devils have tough games left to play at UCLA and at home against rival Arizona.  Of course, ASU holds the tiebreaker over USC if the two finish tied.  Lane Kiffin can tell you that.

 

SEC

Georgia (4-2/6-3) at Auburn (5-1/9-1)

My how the season has shifted!  Two months ago, this game looked like a pivotal November contest for Georgia.  Now, it is the other way around.  Auburn has a decent shot at earning a BCS Bowl.  If the Tigers win this week and then give Alabama a competitive game, Auburn looks like a shoo-in for either the Sugar or Orange Bowl, assuming Alabama runs the table.

 

Georgia is trying to avoid having to play in December during bowl season.  A win on the plains will give them a major leg up for the Gator, Outback, or Cotton Bowl.  A loss puts the Bulldogs in danger of falling below the Gator Bowl.  Since Clemson is likely to be invited to Atlanta, Georgia will be skipped for the Chick-fil-A bowl and fall all the way to Nashville if they fail to beat Georgia Tech.

 

Florida (3-4/4-5) at South Carolina (5-2/7-2)

This is a crucial game for both teams.  South Carolina becomes the leader in the clubhouse with a win in this conference finale.  The Gamecocks are the only impediment in Missouri’s way to the East Division title.  If the two finish tied for first, USC wins the tiebreaker.  Even if Missouri wins out, South Carolina needs a 10-2 finish to have a shot at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl.

 

As for Florida, this is the end of the road if they lose.  The Gators must win this week to have a shot at bowl eligibility.  They could upset Florida St. in the finale.  That “could” is not much different than saying you “could” win the Megamillions lottery this week.

 

If The Gators finish 5-7, Coach Will Muschamp will need a lot of generosity to retain his job in a state where Florida St., Miami, and Central Florida are improving and getting some great in-state recruits.

 

MAC

Ohio (3-2/6-3) at Bowling Green (4-1/6-3)

BGU remains alive in the MAC East hunt, while only a miracle could give Ohio the division title.  This game is more important in bowl implications.  The MAC has three guaranteed bowl bids, but there will be as many as seven bowl eligible teams.  The loser of this game more than likely falls out of the race for the three guaranteed spots and has to begin sweating it as an at-large candidate

 

Buffalo (5-0/7-2) at Toledo (4-1/6-3)

This could be the first of two times these teams face off.  Buffalo is in the driver’s seat in the MAC East, and they Bulls host Bowling Green in a couple weeks.  A BU win in this game basically eliminates Ohio from the MAC East race.

 

Toledo is the third place team in the MAC West as of today, but a win here allows the rockets to host Northern Illinois with the division title up for grabs.  TU is tough to beat at the glass bowl, and they are getting better every week.  This should be a great one to watch midweek.

 

Ball St. (6-0/9-1) at Northern Illinois (5-0/9-0)

Make no bones about it, this is the key MAC game of the year.  The winner goes into undisputed first place in the West, and if the Huskies win, they stay alive for a second consecutive BCS Bowl invitation.

 

These two teams have enough talent to beat teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, Michigan, and Arizona this year, but they are not in the class of teams like Auburn, Michigan St., Oklahoma St., and Stanford.

 

If Ball St. wins, the Cardinals help out the big conferences while virtually assuring that they will be the MAC West champs.  You want to watch this one for sure.

 

 

MWC

Fresno St. has a week off, and thus, there are no real key games in the league.  The Bulldogs wiped Wyoming off the field in Laramie after spotting the Cowboys a 10-0 lead.  FSU closes with New Mexico at home and San Jose St. on the road, two games that should not be much of a challenge.  A possible rematch with Boise St. in the conference championship appears to be the only hurdle this team needs to topple before punching a ticket to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

 

CUSA

This is a calm week for this league.  In the east, East Carolina gets an easy one against UAB, and Marshall plays at a wounded Tulsa team headed nowhere.

 

In the West, North Texas is in the driver’s seat.  The Mean Green have an off week before hosting UTSA and finishing at Tulsa.  Coach Dan McCarney’s name will be bantered about when bigger schools look to fill coaching vacancies next month.

 

SBC

UL-Lafayette has been close in recent years, but 2013 looks like the year they win the SBC title.  The Ragin’ Cajuns should run roughshod over winless Georgia St. this week, and then they will have an extra week to prepare for the conference clincher when they host UL-Monroe on November 30.

 

Texas St. (2-2/6-3) at Arkansas St. (3-1/5-4)

This game serves as a sort of playoff game for the league’s second bowl bid.  Texas St. is already bowl eligible, but they need this win to guarantee that second bid.  The Bobcats could still get an at-large invitation as long as they win one more game.

 

Arkansas St, still has some work to do to guarantee a bowl bid.  A win here coupled with a win over what should be 0-10 Georgia St. next week, will do the trick.  It really does not matter if ASU finished behind Western Kentucky, because the Hilltoppers will most likely be shunned when the league places its teams in bowls.  WKU is leaving the league, and the SBC punished an eight-win Middle Tennessee team last year for the same reason.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.6

2

Oregon

134.0

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

129.7

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

127.8

7

Missouri

123.8

8

Arizona St.

123.4

9

L S U

122.6

10

Texas A&M

121.5

11

Oklahoma St.

121.4

12

Washington

121.0

13

Wisconsin

120.6

14

Clemson

120.2

15

South Carolina

119.6

16

Auburn

119.0

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Ole Miss

118.9

19

Texas

118.0

20

U C L A

117.3

21

U S C

116.6

22

Oregon St.

116.0

23

Georgia

115.1

24

Louisville

114.8

25

Oklahoma

114.7

26

Kansas St.

114.6

27

B Y U

114.6

28

Arizona

114.5

29

Miami

113.1

30

Nebraska

112.9

31

Georgia Tech

112.1

32

Florida

111.9

33

Michigan

111.7

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Virginia Tech

109.7

36

Utah

109.0

37

Central Florida

108.6

38

Northwestern

108.6

39

Texas Tech

108.3

40

Vanderbilt

107.9

41

Mississippi St.

107.1

42

Iowa

106.8

43

Fresno St.

106.7

44

North Carolina

106.5

45

Minnesota

106.4

46

T C U

106.1

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Utah St.

105.1

49

Indiana

104.7

50

East Carolina

104.5

51

Penn St.

104.1

52

Cincinnati

103.9

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

West Virginia

103.0

55

Duke

102.6

56

Tennessee

102.2

57

Houston

102.0

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Ball St.

101.2

60

Bowling Green

101.2

61

Boston College

101.1

62

Syracuse

100.9

63

Pittsburgh

100.9

64

Buffalo

100.5

65

Toledo

100.4

66

Marshall

100.4

67

North Texas

99.7

68

Kentucky

98.5

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Illinois

97.0

71

Colorado St.

96.3

72

Rice

96.2

73

Rutgers

95.9

74

Arkansas

95.9

75

San Jose St.

95.8

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.4

77

Navy

95.3

78

Maryland

95.2

79

S M U

94.8

80

San Diego St.

93.7

81

Iowa St.

93.3

82

Arkansas St.

93.0

83

Ohio

92.6

84

Kansas

92.1

85

California

91.6

86

North Carolina St.

91.4

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Memphis

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Virginia

89.1

91

Florida Atlantic

89.0

92

Middle Tennessee

88.4

93

South Florida

87.8

94

Colorado

87.8

95

Tulane

87.5

96

South Alabama

87.4

97

U N L V

87.2

98

Purdue

87.2

99

Temple

87.1

100

Tulsa

86.2

101

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

102

Kent St.

86.0

103

Nevada

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.8

106

Troy

83.3

107

Akron

83.3

108

Hawaii

83.0

109

Central Michigan

82.7

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.0

112

Louisiana Tech

81.3

113

New Mexico

81.3

114

U A B

79.3

115

Air Force

79.3

116

U T E P

78.1

117

Western Michigan

75.3

118

New Mexico St.

72.7

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

Miami (O)

71.6

121

Eastern Michigan

71.1

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Southern Miss.

67.6

124

Florida Int’l

66.9

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

137.8

2

Alabama

134.1

3

Oregon

130.5

4

Ohio St.

127.2

5

Arizona St.

123.0

6

Baylor

122.8

7

Missouri

122.0

8

Clemson

121.5

9

Wisconsin

121.3

10

Stanford

120.6

11

L S U

120.4

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Texas A&M

119.3

14

Auburn

118.7

15

South Carolina

117.1

16

Washington

117.1

17

Ole Miss

115.9

18

Miami

114.3

19

Louisville

113.6

20

U S C

113.5

21

B Y U

113.4

22

Oklahoma St.

113.2

23

U C L A

112.5

24

Georgia

112.5

25

Central Florida

111.9

26

Michigan

111.7

27

Georgia Tech

111.6

28

Nebraska

111.2

29

Arizona

110.8

30

Virginia Tech

110.2

31

Texas

109.9

32

Oklahoma

109.9

33

Houston

109.4

34

Florida

108.9

35

Notre Dame

108.6

36

North Carolina

108.4

37

Oregon St.

108.1

38

Kansas St.

107.4

39

Utah

106.8

40

Minnesota

106.6

41

Indiana

106.6

42

Fresno St.

106.4

43

East Carolina

106.3

44

Northwestern

106.2

45

Iowa

106.0

46

Northern Illinois

105.6

47

Vanderbilt

105.4

48

Penn St.

104.9

49

Ball St.

104.8

50

Mississippi St.

104.4

51

Marshall

103.9

52

Duke

103.8

53

Cincinnati

103.8

54

Texas Tech

103.8

55

Utah St.

103.3

56

Buffalo

102.9

57

North Texas

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Bowling Green

101.8

61

Boston College

101.7

62

Washington St.

101.1

63

Tennessee

101.1

64

Wake Forest

101.1

65

Syracuse

100.7

66

T C U

100.5

67

Pittsburgh

99.9

68

Rutgers

98.9

69

Rice

98.8

70

Illinois

98.8

71

Maryland

98.7

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

98.1

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.9

75

Navy

96.8

76

S M U

96.5

77

Colorado St.

96.3

78

Ohio

96.2

79

West Virginia

96.1

80

Memphis

95.4

81

North Carolina St.

95.3

82

San Jose St.

93.4

83

Middle Tennessee

93.2

84

San Diego St.

92.7

85

U T S A

92.4

86

Western Kentucky

91.9

87

Arkansas St.

91.2

88

Tulane

90.9

89

Virginia

90.8

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

South Alabama

90.5

92

U N L V

88.8

93

Colorado

88.6

94

Temple

88.5

95

Kent St.

88.5

96

Kansas

87.9

97

Texas St.

87.9

98

Nevada

87.5

99

Army

87.5

100

California

87.3

101

Akron

87.0

102

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

103

Wyoming

86.7

104

Troy

85.9

105

Central Michigan

85.4

106

Tulsa

85.4

107

Iowa St.

85.2

108

New Mexico

85.0

109

Purdue

84.7

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.6

112

Hawaii

83.2

113

Air Force

82.7

114

U A B

80.4

115

Connecticut

80.1

116

U T E P

79.9

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.8

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Miami (O)

74.9

121

Eastern Michigan

73.7

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Florida Int’l

69.2

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

67.6

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.9

2

Florida St.

135.6

3

Oregon

134.9

4

Baylor

131.6

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

127.3

7

Arizona St.

123.3

8

Missouri

123.2

9

L S U

123.1

10

Wisconsin

121.7

11

Oklahoma St.

121.4

12

Texas A&M

121.3

13

Clemson

121.3

14

Washington

120.8

15

Auburn

119.1

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Ole Miss

118.2

19

Texas

116.9

20

U S C

116.5

21

U C L A

115.9

22

B Y U

115.6

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

114.6

25

Kansas St.

114.1

26

Oklahoma

114.0

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Miami

113.2

29

Arizona

112.8

30

Georgia Tech

112.2

31

Nebraska

111.9

32

Michigan

110.7

33

Florida

110.5

34

Central Florida

109.8

35

Virginia Tech

109.4

36

Notre Dame

109.0

37

Utah

108.8

38

Northwestern

108.4

39

Texas Tech

107.7

40

North Carolina

107.4

41

Vanderbilt

107.3

42

Iowa

107.1

43

Mississippi St.

106.9

44

Boise St.

106.6

45

Utah St.

106.6

46

Minnesota

106.4

47

Fresno St.

106.3

48

T C U

105.3

49

East Carolina

104.9

50

Indiana

104.3

51

Northern Illinois

103.9

52

Cincinnati

103.5

53

Houston

103.4

54

Penn St.

103.0

55

Washington St.

102.6

56

Ball St.

102.4

57

West Virginia

102.3

58

Duke

102.1

59

Buffalo

102.1

60

Boston College

102.0

61

Marshall

101.7

62

Bowling Green

101.7

63

Toledo

101.4

64

Tennessee

101.1

65

Pittsburgh

101.0

66

North Texas

100.9

67

Syracuse

100.3

68

Kentucky

99.1

69

Wake Forest

98.8

70

Colorado St.

97.2

71

Rice

96.5

72

Illinois

96.5

73

Maryland

96.3

74

San Jose St.

96.2

75

Rutgers

96.0

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.9

77

Navy

95.4

78

Arkansas

94.7

79

San Diego St.

94.2

80

S M U

94.1

81

Ohio

93.2

82

Arkansas St.

92.8

83

North Carolina St.

92.1

84

Iowa St.

92.1

85

Kansas

91.4

86

Memphis

90.4

87

U T S A

90.2

88

California

90.0

89

Florida Atlantic

89.8

90

Western Kentucky

89.7

91

Middle Tennessee

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

South Alabama

88.1

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Temple

86.8

98

Kent St.

86.4

99

Wyoming

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Colorado

85.9

103

Tulsa

85.2

104

Purdue

84.7

105

Troy

84.3

106

Akron

84.1

107

Hawaii

83.6

108

Connecticut

83.4

109

Army

83.4

110

Texas St.

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.2

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

Air Force

79.1

115

U A B

78.6

116

U T E P

76.8

117

Western Michigan

75.3

118

New Mexico St.

72.6

119

Massachusetts

72.0

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

70.0

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Florida Int’l

67.0

124

Southern Miss.

66.8

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

4-1

8-1

114.8

113.6

115.5

Central Florida

4-0

7-1

108.6

111.9

109.8

Cincinnati

4-1

7-2

103.9

103.8

103.5

Houston

4-1

7-2

102.0

109.4

103.4

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-2

3-5

94.8

96.5

94.1

Memphis

0-4

2-6

89.9

95.4

90.4

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-4

0-8

83.8

80.1

83.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

7-0

9-0

133.6

137.8

135.6

Clemson

6-1

8-1

120.2

121.5

121.3

Boston College

2-3

5-4

101.1

101.7

102.0

Syracuse

3-2

5-4

100.9

100.7

100.3

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

1-4

5-4

95.2

98.7

96.3

North Carolina St.

0-6

3-6

91.4

95.3

92.1

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-2

7-2

113.1

114.3

113.2

Georgia Tech

5-2

6-3

112.1

111.6

112.2

Virginia Tech

4-2

7-3

109.7

110.2

109.4

North Carolina

3-3

4-5

106.5

108.4

107.4

Duke

3-2

7-2

102.6

103.8

102.1

Pittsburgh

2-3

5-4

100.9

99.9

101.0

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.8

105.8

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

5-0

8-0

129.7

122.8

131.6

Oklahoma St.

5-1

8-1

121.4

113.2

121.4

Texas

6-0

7-2

118.0

109.9

116.9

Oklahoma

4-2

7-2

114.7

109.9

114.0

Kansas St.

3-3

5-4

114.6

107.4

114.1

Texas Tech

4-3

7-3

108.3

103.8

107.7

T C U

2-5

4-6

106.1

100.5

105.3

West Virginia

2-5

4-6

103.0

96.1

102.3

Iowa St.

0-6

1-8

93.3

85.2

92.1

Kansas

0-6

2-7

92.1

87.9

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

5-0

9-0

128.2

127.2

128.4

Wisconsin

4-1

7-2

120.6

121.3

121.7

Indiana

2-3

4-5

104.7

106.6

104.3

Penn St.

2-3

5-4

104.1

104.9

103.0

Illinois

0-5

3-6

97.0

98.8

96.5

Purdue

0-5

1-8

87.2

84.7

84.7

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

5-0

8-1

118.9

119.6

118.3

Nebraska

4-1

7-2

112.9

111.2

111.9

Michigan

2-3

6-3

111.7

111.7

110.7

Northwestern

0-5

4-5

108.6

106.2

108.4

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

5-1

7-2

104.5

106.3

104.9

Marshall

4-1

6-3

100.4

103.9

101.7

Florida Atlantic

2-4

3-6

89.0

90.5

89.8

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-4

2-7

79.3

80.4

78.6

Southern Miss.

0-5

0-9

67.6

67.6

66.8

Florida Int’l

1-4

1-8

66.9

69.2

67.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

4-1

6-3

96.2

98.8

96.5

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-4

2-7

86.2

85.4

85.2

Louisiana Tech

3-2

4-5

81.3

83.6

81.0

U T E P

0-5

1-8

78.1

79.9

76.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.8

88.9

86.9

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-3

114.6

113.4

115.6

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

5-4

95.3

96.8

95.4

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.6

92.4

90.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

4-1

6-3

101.2

101.8

101.7

Buffalo

5-0

7-2

100.5

102.9

102.1

Ohio

3-2

6-3

92.6

96.2

93.2

Kent St.

1-5

2-8

86.0

88.5

86.4

Akron

2-4

3-7

83.3

87.0

84.1

Massachusetts

1-4

1-8

72.3

77.3

72.0

Miami (O)

0-5

0-9

71.6

74.9

70.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

5-0

9-0

103.3

105.6

103.9

Ball St.

6-0

9-1

101.2

104.8

102.4

Toledo

4-1

6-3

100.4

102.3

101.4

Central Michigan

2-3

3-6

82.7

85.4

82.2

Western Michigan

1-5

1-9

75.3

76.8

75.3

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.6

88.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

4-1

6-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

3-2

5-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-3

4-5

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-4

3-6

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-2

5-4

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

4-1

5-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

2-5

3-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-6

0-9

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

83.3

83.8

83.8

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-1

8-1

134.0

130.5

134.9

Stanford

6-1

8-1

127.8

120.6

127.3

Washington

3-3

6-3

121.0

117.1

120.8

Oregon St.

4-2

6-3

116.0

108.1

114.0

Washington St.

2-4

4-5

101.9

101.1

102.6

California

0-7

1-9

91.6

87.3

90.0

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

5-1

7-2

123.4

123.0

123.3

U C L A

4-2

7-2

117.3

112.5

115.9

U S C

4-2

7-3

116.6

113.5

116.5

Arizona

3-3

6-3

114.5

110.8

112.8

Utah

1-5

4-5

109.0

106.8

108.8

Colorado

0-6

3-6

87.8

88.6

85.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

119.6

117.1

118.7

Georgia

4-2

6-3

115.1

112.5

114.6

Florida

3-4

4-5

111.9

108.9

110.5

Vanderbilt

2-4

5-4

107.9

105.4

107.3

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-5

2-7

98.5

98.1

99.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

6-0

9-0

137.6

134.1

138.9

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Auburn

5-1

9-1

119.0

118.7

119.1

Ole Miss

3-3

6-3

118.9

115.9

118.2

Mississippi St.

1-4

4-5

107.1

104.4

106.9

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

4-0

7-2

95.4

96.9

95.9

Arkansas St.

3-1

5-4

93.0

91.2

92.8

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

South Alabama

1-3

3-5

87.4

90.5

88.1

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

Troy

3-3

5-5

83.3

85.9

84.3

Texas St.

2-2

6-3

82.3

87.9

82.8

Georgia St.

0-4

0-9

63.3

69.2

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.1

87.6

85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

7-3

85.2

86.7

91.5

Georgia Southern

 

5-3

82.6

85.0

89.7

Appalachian St.

 

1-8

73.1

72.0

79.8

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.5

76.4

81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green Ohio

10.6

7.6

10.5

Toledo Buffalo

2.9

2.4

2.3

Northern Illinois Ball St.

5.1

3.8

4.5

Kent St. Miami (O)

16.4

15.6

18.4

Clemson Georgia Tech

11.1

12.9

12.1

Tulsa Marshall

-11.2

-15.5

-13.5

U C L A Washington

-0.7

-1.6

-1.9

Mississippi St. Alabama

-27.5

-26.7

-29.0

Auburn Georgia

6.9

9.2

7.5

South Carolina Florida

10.7

11.2

11.2

Illinois Ohio St.

-28.2

-25.4

-28.9

Oklahoma Iowa St.

24.4

27.7

24.9

Temple Central Florida

-19.0

-20.9

-20.5

Wisconsin Indiana

18.9

17.7

20.4

Ole Miss Troy

38.6

33.0

36.9

Rutgers Cincinnati

-5.0

-1.9

-4.5

Penn St. Purdue

19.9

23.2

21.3

Kansas West Virginia

-7.9

-5.2

-7.9

Western Michigan Central Michigan

-5.4

-6.6

-4.9

Vanderbilt Kentucky

11.4

9.3

10.2

Boston College North Carolina St.

12.7

9.4

12.9

Pittsburgh North Carolina

-2.6

-5.5

-3.4

Virginia Tech Maryland

17.5

14.5

16.1

Southern Miss. Florida Atlantic

-18.9

-20.4

-20.5

Massachusetts Akron

-9.0

-7.7

-10.1

Arizona Washington St.

15.6

12.7

13.2

East Carolina U A B

28.2

28.9

29.3

Georgia St. UL-Lafayette

-30.1

-25.7

-29.5

S M U Connecticut

14.0

19.4

13.7

Florida St. Syracuse

35.7

40.1

38.3

Duke Miami

-7.5

-7.5

-8.1

Texas Oklahoma St.

-0.4

-0.3

-1.5

Nebraska Michigan St.

-3.0

-5.4

-3.4

Northwestern Michigan

-0.1

-2.5

0.7

Kansas St. T C U

11.5

9.9

11.8

Navy South Alabama

10.9

9.3

10.3

Oregon Utah

28.0

26.7

29.1

Colorado California

-0.8

4.3

-1.1

Baylor (Arlington,TX) Texas Tech

21.4

19.0

23.9

Louisville Houston

15.8

7.2

15.1

South Florida Memphis

0.9

-8.0

0.1

New Mexico Colorado St.

-12.0

-8.3

-12.3

Rice Louisiana Tech

17.9

18.2

18.5

Arkansas St. Texas St.

13.7

6.3

13.0

U S C Stanford

-8.2

-4.1

-7.8

U T E P Florida Int’l

14.2

13.7

12.8

Arizona St. Oregon St.

10.4

17.9

12.3

Boise St. Wyoming

22.6

18.2

23.3

Hawaii San Diego St.

-6.7

-5.5

-6.6

Nevada San Jose St.

-6.9

-2.9

-7.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

U N L V

vs.

Ball St.

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Marshall

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Little Caesars Pizza

Toledo

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Bowling Green *

Military Bowl

Syracuse

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Texas Tech

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U #

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

West Virginia

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Virginia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma

vs.

Michigan

Armed Forces

San Diego St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas

vs.

U S C

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

U C L A

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Ohio *

vs.

Duke

Sun

Miami

vs.

Arizona St.

Liberty

Vanderbilt

vs.

North Texas

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Notre Dame *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Georgia

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Central Florida

Sugar

Ohio St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Cotton

Texas A&M

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Auburn

vs.

Oregon

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland *

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

# Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

 

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