The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 4, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 5-9, 2013

Conference Reports

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Central Florida hosts Houston this week, and if the Knights get by the Cougars, the conference championship is almost theirs.  UCF closes with Temple, Rutgers, South Florida, and SMU.  Rutgers is the only team in that bunch capable of pulling off the upset, but that game is in Orlando.

 

Louisville has two difficult games remaining—hosting Houston on November 16 and finishing the regular season at Cincinnati on Thursday, December 5.  The Cardinals need Houston to beat UCF, and then they would have to beat Houston to earn the BCS Bowl bid.

 

Houston has the toughest job, as the Cougars must still play at UCF and Louisville in the next two Saturdays.  If they can pull off the near miracle, they would then have to face Cincinnati at home the following week  before closing with rival SMU.

 

Cincinnati and SMU are technically still in the conference race, and the two teams square off in the Queen City of Ohio this weekend.  For UC to win the league, the Bearcats must win out against SMU, Rutgers, Houston, and Louisville and then hope UCF loses a game to South Florida or Temple, which could lower their BCS ranking below the Bearcats.  SMU must win out as well, and their road is much tougher—practically impossible, as they would have to pass Louisville in the BCS rankings.

 

1

BCS (Sugar) Central Florida

2

Russell Athletic Louisville

3

Belk Houston

4

Pinstripe Rutgers

5

BBVA Compass Cincinnati

6

Beef O’Brady’s No Team Available

 

ATLANTIC COAST

In the Atlantic Division, Florida St. is a virtual lock to be the division title winner, as the Seminoles would have to lose to both Wake Forest and Syracuse to fall to second place.  The Seminoles just moved back to number two in the BCS rankings, but they are still the odd-team out as of today.  A schedule that includes Idaho and Florida besides the two ACC teams is not strong enough to stay ahead of Oregon should the Ducks win out as well.

Clemson is still alive for a BCS at-large bid, but the Tigers will have to root heavily for Northern Illinois and Fresno St. to both lose.  If one of the non-automatic qualifying teams crashes the party, Clemson’s invitation will never arrived.

 

The remainder of the Atlantic Division is fighting it out for Bowl Eligibility.  Maryland needs just one more win, and they will certainly get that.  Syracuse and Boston College both need two more wins, and the chances are at least 50-50 that they will both succeed and better than 70% that at least one will.

 

Wake Forest and North Carolina St. both have five losses, and they are on the outside looking in. Chances are better than 67% that both will miss out.

 

There is still a race to be won in the Coastal Division.  Miami has three tough games remaining in the four yet to be played.  They host a wounded Virginia Tech team this week, go to the surprising Duke Blue Devils the following week, and then after an easy one against Virginia, the “U” closes at Pittsburgh on Black Friday, where the temperature could be 50 degrees colder than home.

 

Duke controls their own destiny, and for the Blue Devils to win out, they will have to beat North Carolina St., Miami, Wake Forest, and North Carolina, the latter two on the road. 

 

Virginia Tech is still very much alive even though the Hokies have lost their last two.  If they best Miami, it will take home wins over Maryland and Virginia and at least one loss by Duke to give them the division flag.

 

Georgia Tech has a week off to prepare for a game at Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets are already bowl eligible, but they too need one more win to guarantee a bowl bid.  It will come at home against Alabama A&M on November 23.

 

North Carolina and Pittsburgh both have some work to do to become bowl eligible.  The Tar Heels dug themselves into a pit with a 1-5 start, but UNC has won their last two and gets Virginia at home this week.  Games at Pitt and home against Old Dominion and Duke are all winnable, and this team could close out the regular season on a six-game winning streak.

 

Pittsburgh needs to split their final four games to finish with six wins, and the Panthers have a tough job with Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Miami.  Even with six wins, there is no guarantee the Panthers will go bowling.

 

1

BCS (Orange) Florida St.

2

Chick-fil-A Clemson

3

Russell Athletic Miami

4

Sun Virginia Tech

5

Belk Maryland

6

Music City Georgia Tech

7

Advocare V100 Duke

8

Military Syracuse
     
  North Carolina 6-wins and out
  Pittsburgh 6-wins and out

 

BIG 12

The way we see it, this league is going to miss out thrice this year.  First, a 12-0 Baylor will have very little chance, make that almost no chance, of making the National Championship Game.  Second, if Baylor goes 12-0, the Bears could easily be the only league team to play in a BCS Bowl thanks to the likelihood that there will be a non-automatic qualifier breaking in line.  Third, the league champion, be it Baylor or someone else will almost assuredly be stuck playing either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois should one qualify.

 

Baylor winning the league is still not cut and dry.  The Bears have really only played one above average team, and they struggled to defeat Kansas St.  BU closes with all their tough games, starting this Thursday night at home against Oklahoma.  They follow up that game with Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium, Oklahoma St. on the road, TCU on the road, and Texas at home.

 

Coach Mack Brown took a lot of heat and appears to still be on the hot seat in Austin, but Texas still has a shot at the conference championship.  It won’t be easy, as the Longhorns’ closing schedule is rough as well.  After a tricky road trip to West Virginia this weekend, they close with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, and Baylor.

 

Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma are still alive with one conference loss apiece.  After an easy one at home with Kansas this weekend, OSU plays at Texas and then hosts Baylor in back-to-back weeks.  They get a week off to prepare for the home finale against the Sooners.

 

Oklahoma has two other tough road games before the Oklahoma St. finale in Stillwater.  The Sooners play at Baylor and Kansas St. with a home breather against Iowa St. sandwiched in between.

 

Texas Tech has fallen out of contention with consecutive losses, and the Red Raiders will fight it out with Kansas St. for bowl pecking order.

 

West Virginia’s win at TCU has put the Mountaineers back on the plus 50% of bowl eligibility chance rating.  WVU still has games with the two conference lightweights, Kansas and Iowa St., and the Mountaineers need two wins to reach six.

 

1

BCS (Fiesta) Baylor

2

Cotton Oklahoma St.

3

Alamo Texas

4

Buffalo Wild Wings Oklahoma

5

Holiday Texas Tech

6

Texas Kansas St.

7

Pinstripe West Virginia

 

BIG TEN

Ohio St. can win the rest of their games 100-0, and the Buckeyes will still need two of the three teams ahead of them in the BCS standings to lose.  A non-conference schedule of Buffalo, San Diego St., California, and Florida A&M did not give the Big Ten favorites a fighting chance.  The Big Ten is not strong enough to allow OSU to play that schedule and jump ahead of the Pac-12, SEC, and even ACC.  It is debatable whether the Buckeyes can stay ahead of Baylor if the Bears run the table.

 

This week, we have even made a change in our conference champion prediction.  We now believe Michigan St. has the Legends Division title secured, and this week, we are predicting the Spartans to defend the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

Wisconsin has a trap game this week with BYU.  If the Badgers win this one, they have an excellent shot of winning out and finishing 10-2, but UW would need losses from Ohio St. and Michigan St. to jump into the BCS at-large picture.

 

The remaining bowl hopefuls are all in the Legends Division.  Michigan, Nebraska, and Minnesota are already in as bowl eligible teams.  Iowa needs one more win and should get that this week at Purdue. 

 

Northwestern, after starting 4-0, has lost five in a row, and it appears as though the Wildcats are on the outside, looking in.  NU must beat one of the Michigan teams as well as Illinois on the road.

 

1

BCS (Rose) Michigan St.

2

BCS (Orange) Ohio St.

3

Capital One Wisconsin

4

Outback Michigan

5

Gator Minnesota

6

Buffalo Wild Wings Nebraska

7

Texas Iowa

8

Heart of Dallas No Team Available

9

Little Caesar’s Pizza No Team Available

 

CONFERENCE USA

The picture became much clearer this week in one division, while the top two in the other appear to be heading for a big season-ending showdown.

 

North Texas defeated Rice, while Tulane lost to an emotionally charged Florida Atlantic team.  The Mean Green will win the West Division is they defeat UTEP, UTSA, and Tulsa, while Tulane loses one more game.  The Green Wave must still play at Rice.

 

Rice can only win the division if North Texas loses, and the Owls run the table.

 

In the East, Marshall and East Carolina appear to be headed to a big finish in Huntington on Black Friday.  Middle Tennessee is still mathematically alive.  For the Blue Raiders to win the division, they must win out over FIU, Southern Miss, and UTEP, while Marshall loses before beating ECU, who must also lose another conference game.

 

1

Liberty Marshall

2

Heart of Dallas North Texas

3

Military East Carolina

4

Beef O’Brady’s Middle Tennessee

5

Hawaii Rice

6

New Orleans Tulane

 

INDEPENDENTS

This one is now cut and dry.  BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

 

Notre Dame is bowl eligible and will play in a bowl that needs an at-large team.  The Fighting Irish have an infinitesimal shot at moving into a BCS at-large bowl.

 

Navy is 4-4 with games remaining against Hawaii, South Alabama, San Jose St., and Army.  The Middies should win at least twice and earn their trip to the Armed Forced Bowl.

 

Army is 3-6 and must win out against Western Kentucky, Hawaii, and Navy.  The Black Knights should consider the road game in Honolulu as their bowl, because it does not look likely for a 3-0 finish after losing to lowly Air Force.  Coach Rich Ellerson will most likely be let go if Army loses to Navy.

 

Notre Dame Poinsettia (at-large)
B Y U Kraft Fight Hunger
Navy Armed Forces

 

MID-AMERICAN

This is the week where the MAC starts playing half its schedule on the weeknights.  There are three big midweek games this week involving four contenders for the conference championship.

 

Tuesday night, Bowling Green plays at Miami of Ohio in what must be a win for the Falcons if they are to stay in the East Division race.

 

Also Tuesday night, Buffalo, 4-0 in league play, hosts Ohio, 3-1 and tied with BGU in league play.  If the Bulls win, the Bobcats are probably out of the division race and will fall onto the bowl bubble, where they will need to earn an at-large bowl bid.

 

On Wednesday, Ball St. hosts a so-so Central Michigan team badly in need of an upset win to have a chance at a bowl.  The Cardinals are tied with Northern Illinois at 5-0 in league play, with Toledo one game back but with a home game remaining against NIU.

 

If Northern Illinois runs the table and finishes 13-0, the Huskies will still need for Fresno St. to lose a game to make it to a second consecutive BCS Bowl game.  No 13-0 team in the BCS era has failed to finish in the top 12 of the final regular season standings, and NIU (or Fresno St.) only needs to finish in the top 16 if there is an automatic qualifier ranked below them (as are all the contenders in the AAC).  Should both NIU and FSU finish undefeated, we believe the Huskies could be sent to Las Vegas in a deal to replace FSU and play in a better bowl than the GoDaddy.com bowl.

 

1

BCS at-large (Fiesta) Northern Illinois

2

GoDaddy.com Ball St.

3

Little Caesar’s Pizza Toledo

4

Famous Idaho Potato Buffalo

5

Advocare V100 * Bowling Green

6

Heart of Dallas * Ohio
     

*

At-large bid  
  Central Michigan 6 Wins and Out

 

MOUNTAIN WEST

Fresno St. has moved two spots ahead of Northern Illinois, and the Bulldogs’ schedule should guarantee that if they ran the table,  they would stay ahead of an undefeated NIU team.

 

However, the MWC is a tough league in which to run the table.  In order to get to 12-0 (one game cancelled), the Bulldogs will have to win at Wyoming this Saturday in what has to be a major trap game; The Cowboys had an extra week to prepare, and they need a big upset to have any chance at bowl eligibility.  Should FSU survive this ambush in Laramie, they have a Black Friday game at San Jose St.  If 11-0 in the MWC Championship, they would then have to defeat Boise St. for a second time or Utah St.  Boise lost by a point at Fresno in September, and we cannot see FSU beating the Broncos twice in the same season.

 

There are a host of teams competing for the bowl spots past FSU, Boise St., Utah St., and San Jose St.  UNLV needs just one win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2003 (last bowl in 2000).  The Rebels have three shots and must beat either Utah St., Air Force, or San Diego St.

 

As for San Diego St., the Aztecs need two wins and will have to beat Hawaii and somebody else.  The November 30 game at UNLV could very well be a bowl elimination game.

 

Colorado St. must win seven games, because they play 13 regular season games.  The Rams must finish 3-1.  Their schedule includes home games with Nevada and Air Force and road games at New Mexico and Utah St.  Coach Jim McElwain’s team has a shot.

 

1

Las Vegas Boise St.

2

Poinsettia Fresno St.

3

Armed Forces San Jose St.

4

New Mexico Utah St.

5

Hawaii U N L V

6

Famous Idaho Potato Colorado St.

 

PAC-12

The conference game of the year takes place Thursday in Palo Alto, as Stanford hosts Oregon.  If the Ducks win, they still must defeat Arizona in Tucson and any of three possible South Division contenders in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

If Stanford wins, the Cardinal still must win at USC and defeat rival Cal to win the North.

 

As long as Stanford does not lose to Cal or Notre Dame, the Cardinal have an excellent shot at going to the Rose Bowl if they lose to Oregon.

 

As for the rest of the league, it is still quite jumbled, especially in the South Division.

 

Currently, Arizona St. is the hot team in the South.  The Sun Devils are a game ahead of UCLA, Arizona, and USC.  UCLA hosts ASU on November 23, and the winner of that game should emerge as the division winner.  However don’t dismiss USC.  The Trojans have their swagger back, and they could catch Stanford at the right time when the Cardinal come to the Coliseum following the Oregon game.

 

Arizona finishes with Oregon and Arizona St., and it is hard to see the Wildcats winning both.

 

Utah is 4-4, and the Utes still must play Oregon and Arizona St.  They can get to six wins by topping Washington St. and Colorado, but six wins may keep them home.

 

In addition to the big two in the North, Washington and Oregon St. are competing for third place.  The two play in Corvallis on November 23, and it could be for a bowl position.  The Beavers have a brutal closing schedule that includes road games against Arizona St. and Oregon, and losing to UW could be their bowl demise.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Oregon

2

BCS (Rose) Stanford

3

Alamo Arizona St.

4

Holiday U S C

5

Sun U C L A

6

Las Vegas Washington

7

Kraft Fight Hunger Arizona

8

New Mexico Oregon St.
     
  Utah 6 wins and out

 

SOUTHEASTERN

It is possible that Alabama could lose a game, against LSU, Auburn, or the SEC East Division winner in the conference title game, but this Alabama team looks as strong as the 1995 Nebraska team. 

 

Auburn was picked down at the bottom of the West in the preseason, but the Tigers are still mathematically alive in the West.  If they beat Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama, they will win the division; they won’t.

 

LSU and Texas A&M are fighting for a possible BCS at-large bid, but it will take a 10-2 record to do so, and both are 7-2 with three games to go.  LSU would have to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.  The Tigers and Aggies play in Baton Rouge on November 23.  A&M finishes at Missouri a week later. 

 

Ole Miss will be the fourth team out of the West to go bowling, but Mississippi St. appears to be out of the picture at 4-4 with games yet to be played against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  Coach Dan Mullen turned down opportunities to coach at bigger schools after the 2010 team beat Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl.  He chose to stay in Starkville, and his reward might be unemployment in 2014.

 

In the East, Missouri is still in the driver’s seat with a 4-1 conference mark.  However, the Tigers have tricky games remaining against Ole Miss in Oxford and Texas A&M at home.

 

If Missouri finishes 6-2, then it will matter who the other loss came against in a 3-way tie with two loss Georgia and South Carolina.  If the loss is to Kentucky this week, then the Tigers are in trouble.  If the loss comes against Ole Miss or Texas A&M, then they still win the tiebreaker.

 

If Missouri and South Carolina finish in a two-way tie, then the Gamecocks win the East.  Georgia needs Missouri to lose to Kentucky or two lose twice before they have a chance to return to Atlanta.  Of course, the Bulldogs still have to play at Auburn.

 

In the rare event that teams finish tied for first at 5-3, Florida re-enters the equation.  There are too many possibilities yet to play out, but most of them will be eliminated if Missouri takes care of business in Lexington.

 

As for the rest of the East, the Gators are not yet bowl eligible.  At 4-4, Florida has two tough games on their schedule at South Carolina and at home against Florida St.  Additionally, they still have a difficult game at home against Vanderbilt.  6-6 is probable.

 

Vanderbilt is 4-4 with four to play.  They have games against less than mediocre Kentucky and Wake Forest, as well as winnable games at Florida and Tennessee, so the Commodores have a high probability of making a third consecutive bowl appearance.

 

Tennessee is in a very familiar situation at 4-5 with three games to go.  The Volunteers have been crippled with an injury to starting quarterback Justin Worley as well as backup Nathan Peterman.  Worley could be back for the final two games, and the Vols will have to win them both, at home against Vanderbilt and at Kentucky.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Alabama

2

BCS (Sugar) Auburn

3

Capital One Missouri

4

Outback Texas A&M

5

Cotton South Carolina

6

Chick-fil-A L S U

7

Gator Georgia

8

Music City Ole Miss

9

Liberty Florida

10

BBVA Compass Vanderbilt

11

Advocare V100 No Team Available

 

SUNBELT

The road to the SBC title runs through the Pelican State this year, as the UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe winner will take the crown with the loser getting the second bowl spot.

 

Arkansas St., Texas St., Troy, and Western Kentucky still have shots to make a bowl, but as this league did last year to Middle Tennessee, expect Western Kentucky to get the shaft if there are extra bowl eligible teams.  The Hilltoppers are leaving the league in 2014.

 

1

New Orleans UL-Lafayette

2

GoDaddy.com UL-Monroe

3

Little Caesar’s * Texas St.

4

Beef O’Brady’s * Western Kentucky
     
  Arkansas St. 6 wins and out
  Troy 6 wins and out

 

PiRate Ratings For November 4, 2013

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

131.8

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Arizona St.

124.4

8

L S U

123.0

9

Missouri

122.9

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Oklahoma St.

120.9

12

Wisconsin

120.4

13

Clemson

120.2

14

Ole Miss

120.0

15

Washington

119.7

16

South Carolina

119.6

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Texas

118.8

19

U C L A

116.5

20

Oregon St.

116.0

21

Oklahoma

115.8

22

Auburn

115.7

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

115.4

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Miami

115.2

27

Florida

115.2

28

U S C

115.1

29

B Y U

114.8

30

Kansas St.

112.9

31

Michigan

112.3

32

Nebraska

112.3

33

Notre Dame

112.2

34

Georgia Tech

112.1

35

Texas Tech

110.0

36

Central Florida

108.9

37

Northwestern

108.6

38

Virginia Tech

108.1

39

Utah

108.0

40

T C U

106.7

41

Mississippi St.

106.3

42

Iowa

106.0

43

North Carolina

105.9

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Minnesota

105.7

46

Vanderbilt

105.6

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Tennessee

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.5

51

Fresno St.

104.1

52

Indiana

104.0

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

East Carolina

103.0

55

Duke

102.4

56

West Virginia

102.2

57

Boston College

101.9

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Houston

101.7

60

Ball St.

101.1

61

Toledo

100.4

62

Syracuse

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Wake Forest

99.8

65

Pittsburgh

99.4

66

Kentucky

99.4

67

North Texas

98.5

68

Marshall

98.3

69

Buffalo

97.8

70

Illinois

97.7

71

San Jose St.

97.0

72

Rice

96.2

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.2

74

Rutgers

95.9

75

Maryland

95.9

76

Navy

95.5

77

Colorado St.

95.5

78

Arkansas

95.1

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Iowa St.

93.0

82

California

92.9

83

Kansas

92.6

84

San Diego St.

92.5

85

North Carolina St.

91.6

86

Arkansas St.

90.8

87

U T S A

90.6

88

Memphis

90.2

89

Virginia

90.0

90

Western Kentucky

89.5

91

Colorado

89.1

92

Florida Atlantic

89.0

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.3

94

Tulsa

88.1

95

Purdue

88.0

96

South Florida

87.8

97

Wyoming

87.7

98

South Alabama

87.4

99

Tulane

87.3

100

Temple

87.1

101

Nevada

86.7

102

U N L V

86.5

103

Middle Tennessee

86.1

104

Kent St.

86.0

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Akron

83.3

107

Central Michigan

82.8

108

Hawaii

82.8

109

Troy

82.5

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.1

112

U A B

81.4

113

Louisiana Tech

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.8

115

Air Force

79.8

116

U T E P

79.0

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Miami (O)

73.0

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

New Mexico St.

71.9

121

Eastern Michigan

70.9

122

Florida Int’l

69.2

123

Idaho

68.7

124

Southern Miss.

68.1

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

135.7

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

127.0

5

Arizona St.

124.1

6

Clemson

121.5

7

Wisconsin

121.2

8

L S U

121.1

9

Baylor

121.0

10

Missouri

120.9

11

Texas A&M

119.9

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Stanford

118.5

14

South Carolina

117.1

15

Ole Miss

116.9

16

Miami

116.6

17

Auburn

115.6

18

Washington

115.6

19

Louisville

114.6

20

B Y U

113.5

21

Georgia

112.8

22

Michigan

112.5

23

Florida

112.3

24

Oklahoma St.

112.2

25

Arizona

111.9

26

U S C

111.9

27

Central Florida

111.8

28

Georgia Tech

111.6

29

U C L A

111.4

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Texas

110.7

32

Nebraska

110.4

33

Notre Dame

110.1

34

Houston

109.5

35

Virginia Tech

108.4

36

Oregon St.

108.1

37

North Carolina

107.8

38

Northwestern

106.2

39

Indiana

105.8

40

Texas Tech

105.7

41

Utah

105.7

42

Northern Illinois

105.6

43

Penn St.

105.6

44

Kansas St.

105.5

45

Minnesota

105.4

46

Iowa

105.3

47

East Carolina

104.9

48

Ball St.

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.0

50

Utah St.

103.8

51

Fresno St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.5

53

Mississippi St.

103.5

54

Duke

103.4

55

Vanderbilt

103.0

56

Wake Forest

102.7

57

Boston College

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Marshall

101.9

61

T C U

101.5

62

North Texas

101.1

63

Washington St.

101.1

64

Bowling Green

100.2

65

Buffalo

100.1

66

Maryland

99.9

67

Illinois

99.6

68

Kentucky

99.2

69

Rutgers

98.9

70

Syracuse

98.8

71

Rice

98.8

72

Ohio

98.5

73

Pittsburgh

98.4

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

97.6

75

Arkansas

97.6

76

Navy

97.2

77

S M U

96.3

78

Memphis

95.7

79

North Carolina St.

95.5

80

West Virginia

95.3

81

Colorado St.

95.2

82

San Jose St.

94.6

83

U T S A

92.5

84

Virginia

91.7

85

Western Kentucky

91.6

86

San Diego St.

91.5

87

Middle Tennessee

91.0

88

Tulane

90.8

89

South Alabama

90.5

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

Colorado

90.1

92

Louisiana–Monroe

89.4

93

Wyoming

89.0

94

Kansas

88.9

95

California

88.7

96

Arkansas St.

88.7

97

Nevada

88.6

98

Temple

88.5

99

Kent St.

88.5

100

U N L V

88.3

101

Texas St.

87.9

102

Army

87.8

103

Tulsa

87.2

104

Akron

87.0

105

Central Michigan

85.5

106

Purdue

85.4

107

Troy

85.2

108

Iowa St.

84.5

109

New Mexico

84.5

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.2

112

Air Force

83.2

113

Hawaii

82.8

114

U A B

82.4

115

U T E P

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

New Mexico St.

75.1

121

Eastern Michigan

73.6

122

Idaho

73.3

123

Florida Int’l

71.4

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

68.0

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

125.3

7

Arizona St.

124.5

8

L S U

123.7

9

Missouri

122.2

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Wisconsin

121.5

12

Clemson

121.3

13

Oklahoma St.

120.7

14

Ole Miss

119.6

15

Washington

119.4

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Texas

117.9

19

Louisville

116.5

20

Auburn

115.9

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Miami

115.7

23

Oklahoma

115.1

24

U C L A

114.8

25

U S C

114.8

26

Georgia

114.5

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Arizona

113.9

29

Florida

113.9

30

Kansas St.

112.6

31

Georgia Tech

112.2

32

Michigan

111.5

33

Nebraska

111.1

34

Notre Dame

110.6

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Texas Tech

109.2

37

Northwestern

108.4

38

Utah

107.6

39

Utah St.

107.5

40

Virginia Tech

107.4

41

North Carolina

106.7

42

Boise St.

106.6

43

Iowa

106.4

44

T C U

106.1

45

Mississippi St.

105.9

46

Minnesota

105.5

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Fresno St.

104.4

49

Cincinnati

104.2

50

Northern Illinois

103.9

51

Penn St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.6

53

East Carolina

103.4

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Boston College

103.0

56

Houston

102.9

57

Washington St.

102.6

58

Ball St.

102.3

59

Duke

101.9

60

Toledo

101.4

61

West Virginia

101.3

62

Wake Forest

100.5

63

Bowling Green

100.2

64

Kentucky

100.1

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Marshall

99.6

67

Pittsburgh

99.4

68

Buffalo

99.3

69

Syracuse

98.7

70

San Jose St.

97.8

71

Illinois

97.4

72

Maryland

97.3

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.8

74

Rice

96.5

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

96.0

77

Navy

95.7

78

Ohio

95.5

79

Arkansas

93.6

80

S M U

93.4

81

San Diego St.

92.6

82

North Carolina St.

92.3

83

Kansas

92.1

84

Iowa St.

91.6

85

California

91.5

86

Memphis

90.7

87

Arkansas St.

90.5

88

U T S A

90.4

89

Virginia

90.1

90

Florida Atlantic

89.8

91

Western Kentucky

89.6

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.1

95

Tulane

87.7

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Colorado

87.3

98

Tulsa

87.1

99

Middle Tennessee

87.0

100

U N L V

86.9

101

Temple

86.8

102

Nevada

86.8

103

Kent St.

86.4

104

Purdue

85.4

105

Akron

84.1

106

Army

83.5

107

Troy

83.4

108

Hawaii

83.3

109

Texas St.

82.8

110

Connecticut

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.3

112

New Mexico

81.4

113

U A B

80.7

114

Louisiana Tech

80.4

115

Air Force

79.6

116

U T E P

77.7

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.0

119

New Mexico St.

71.6

120

Miami (O)

71.5

121

Eastern Michigan

69.7

122

Florida Int’l

69.4

123

Idaho

68.1

124

Southern Miss.

67.4

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

3-1

6-2

104.5

104.0

104.2

Houston

4-0

7-1

101.7

109.5

102.9

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-4

1-6

90.2

95.7

90.7

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

6-0

8-0

131.8

135.7

133.6

Clemson

6-1

8-1

120.2

121.5

121.3

Boston College

2-3

4-4

101.9

102.4

103.0

Syracuse

2-2

4-4

99.8

98.8

98.7

Wake Forest

2-4

4-5

99.8

102.7

100.5

Maryland

1-3

5-3

95.9

99.9

97.3

North Carolina St.

0-5

3-5

91.6

95.5

92.3

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-1

7-1

115.2

116.6

115.7

Georgia Tech

5-2

6-3

112.1

111.6

112.2

Virginia Tech

3-2

6-3

108.1

108.4

107.4

North Carolina

2-3

3-5

105.9

107.8

106.7

Duke

2-2

6-2

102.4

103.4

101.9

Pittsburgh

2-3

4-4

99.4

98.4

99.4

Virginia

0-5

2-7

90.0

91.7

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

4-0

7-0

128.2

121.0

130.1

Oklahoma St.

4-1

7-1

120.9

112.2

120.7

Texas

5-0

6-2

118.8

110.7

117.9

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

115.8

111.3

115.1

Kansas St.

2-3

4-4

112.9

105.5

112.6

Texas Tech

4-2

7-2

110.0

105.7

109.2

T C U

1-5

3-6

106.7

101.5

106.1

West Virginia

2-4

4-5

102.2

95.3

101.3

Iowa St.

0-5

1-7

93.0

84.5

91.6

Kansas

0-5

2-6

92.6

88.9

92.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

5-0

9-0

128.2

127.0

128.4

Wisconsin

4-1

6-2

120.4

121.2

121.5

Penn St.

2-2

5-3

104.5

105.6

103.6

Indiana

1-3

3-5

104.0

105.8

103.4

Illinois

0-4

3-5

97.7

99.6

97.4

Purdue

0-4

1-7

88.0

85.4

85.4

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

5-0

8-1

118.9

119.6

118.3

Michigan

2-2

6-2

112.3

112.5

111.5

Nebraska

3-1

6-2

112.3

110.4

111.1

Northwestern

0-5

4-5

108.6

106.2

108.4

Iowa

2-3

5-4

106.0

105.3

106.4

Minnesota

3-2

7-2

105.7

105.4

105.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

4-1

6-2

103.0

104.9

103.4

Marshall

3-1

5-3

98.3

101.9

99.6

Florida Atlantic

2-4

3-6

89.0

90.5

89.8

Middle Tennessee

3-2

5-4

86.1

91.0

87.0

U A B

1-3

2-6

81.4

82.4

80.7

Florida Int’l

1-3

1-7

69.2

71.4

69.4

Southern Miss.

0-4

0-8

68.1

68.0

67.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

4-1

6-3

98.5

101.1

99.7

Rice

4-1

6-3

96.2

98.8

96.5

U T S A

3-2

4-5

90.6

92.5

90.4

Tulsa

1-3

2-6

88.1

87.2

87.1

Tulane

4-1

6-3

87.3

90.8

87.7

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-5

80.8

83.2

80.4

U T E P

0-4

1-7

79.0

80.9

77.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.8

88.9

86.9

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-2

114.8

113.5

115.8

Notre Dame

 

7-2

112.2

110.1

110.6

Navy

 

4-4

95.5

97.2

95.7

Army

 

3-6

82.1

87.8

83.5

Idaho

 

1-8

68.7

73.3

68.1

New Mexico St.

 

1-8

71.9

75.1

71.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.8

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-1

5-3

99.8

100.2

100.2

Buffalo

4-0

6-2

97.8

100.1

99.3

Ohio

3-1

6-2

94.7

98.5

95.5

Kent St.

1-5

2-8

86.0

88.5

86.4

Akron

2-4

3-7

83.3

87.0

84.1

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

73.0

76.5

71.5

Massachusetts

1-4

1-8

72.3

77.3

72.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

5-0

9-0

103.3

105.6

103.9

Ball St.

5-0

8-1

101.1

104.7

102.3

Toledo

4-1

6-3

100.4

102.3

101.4

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

1-4

1-8

75.5

76.9

75.6

Eastern Michigan

0-5

1-8

70.9

73.6

69.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

4-1

5-4

105.8

103.8

107.5

Boise St.

4-1

6-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Colorado St.

2-2

4-5

95.5

95.2

96.3

Wyoming

2-2

4-4

87.7

89.0

88.7

New Mexico

0-4

2-6

80.8

84.5

81.4

Air Force

0-5

2-7

79.8

83.2

79.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

5-0

8-0

104.1

103.6

104.4

San Jose St.

4-1

5-3

97.0

94.6

97.8

San Diego St.

3-1

4-4

92.5

91.5

92.6

Nevada

2-4

3-6

86.7

88.6

86.8

U N L V

3-2

5-4

86.5

88.3

86.9

Hawaii

0-6

0-8

82.8

82.8

83.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.0

92.3

92.7

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-0

8-0

135.6

132.5

136.8

Stanford

5-1

7-1

126.0

118.5

125.3

Washington

2-3

5-3

119.7

115.6

119.4

Oregon St.

4-2

6-3

116.0

108.1

114.0

Washington St.

2-4

4-5

101.9

101.1

102.6

California

0-6

1-8

92.9

88.7

91.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

4-1

6-2

124.4

124.1

124.5

U C L A

3-2

6-2

116.5

111.4

114.8

Arizona

3-2

6-2

115.3

111.9

113.9

U S C

3-2

6-3

115.1

111.9

114.8

Utah

1-4

4-4

108.0

105.7

107.6

Colorado

0-5

3-5

89.1

90.1

87.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

4-1

8-1

122.9

120.9

122.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

119.6

117.1

118.7

Georgia

4-2

5-3

115.4

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-3

4-4

115.2

112.3

113.9

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.6

103.0

104.9

Tennessee

1-4

4-5

104.7

103.5

103.6

Kentucky

0-4

2-6

99.4

99.2

100.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

5-0

8-0

137.1

133.3

138.2

L S U

3-2

7-2

123.0

121.1

123.7

Texas A&M

3-2

7-2

122.0

119.9

122.0

Ole Miss

2-3

5-3

120.0

116.9

119.6

Auburn

4-1

8-1

115.7

115.6

115.9

Mississippi St.

1-3

4-4

106.3

103.5

105.9

Arkansas

0-5

3-6

95.1

97.6

93.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

3-0

6-2

96.2

97.6

96.8

Arkansas St.

2-1

4-4

90.8

88.7

90.5

Western Kentucky

2-3

5-4

89.5

91.6

89.6

Louisiana–Monroe

3-1

5-4

88.3

89.4

88.4

South Alabama

1-3

3-5

87.4

90.5

88.1

Troy

3-2

5-4

82.5

85.2

83.4

Texas St.

2-2

6-3

82.3

87.9

82.8

Georgia St.

0-4

0-9

63.3

69.2

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.0

87.5

85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

6-3

84.6

85.4

91.3

Georgia Southern

 

4-3

82.4

84.8

89.5

Appalachian St.

 

1-7

72.8

71.7

79.9

Charlotte

 

4-5

57.5

62.1

64.6

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.3

76.0

81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Bowling Green

-24.8

-21.7

-26.7

Buffalo Ohio

6.1

4.6

6.8

Ball St. Central Michigan

21.3

22.2

23.0

Baylor Oklahoma

15.4

12.7

18.0

UL-Lafayette Troy

16.7

15.4

16.4

Stanford Oregon

-6.6

-11.0

-8.5

Connecticut Louisville

-29.5

-32.6

-31.2

New Mexico Air Force

3.5

3.8

4.3

Wake Forest Florida St.

-29.0

-30.0

-30.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia Tech

10.1

11.2

11.3

Pittsburgh Notre Dame

-9.8

-8.7

-8.2

Kentucky Missouri

-20.5

18.7

-19.1

Tennessee Auburn

-8.0

-9.1

-9.3

Texas Tech Kansas St.

0.1

3.2

-0.4

Florida Vanderbilt

12.6

12.3

12.0

Iowa St. T C U

-10.7

-14.0

-11.5

Minnesota Penn St.

4.2

2.8

4.9

Marshall U A B

19.9

22.5

21.9

Army Western Kentucky

-4.9

-1.3

-3.6

Cincinnati S M U

13.3

10.7

13.8

Purdue Iowa

-15.5

-17.4

-18.5

Ole Miss Arkansas

27.9

22.3

29.0

North Carolina Virginia

18.9

19.1

19.6

Eastern Michigan Western Michigan

-2.6

-1.3

-3.9

U T S A Tulane

5.8

4.2

5.2

California U S C

-19.2

-20.2

-20.3

Texas A&M Mississippi St.

18.7

19.4

19.1

Michigan Nebraska

3.0

5.1

3.4

Wisconsin B Y U

8.6

10.7

8.7

Colorado St. Nevada

11.8

9.6

12.5

Indiana Illinois

8.8

8.7

8.5

Maryland Syracuse

-0.9

4.8

1.6

New Mexico St. Boston College

-26.5

-23.8

-28.9

North Texas U T E P

22.0

22.7

24.5

Navy Hawaii

16.7

18.4

16.4

East Carolina Tulsa

17.9

20.7

19.3

Oklahoma St. Kansas

31.3

26.3

31.6

Duke North Carolina St.

12.8

9.9

11.6

Utah Arizona St.

-13.4

-15.4

-13.9

Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l

19.4

22.1

20.1

Central Florida Houston

10.2

5.3

10.4

West Virginia Texas

-13.6

-12.4

-13.6

Louisiana Tech Southern Miss.

14.7

17.2

15.0

UL-Monroe Arkansas St.

0.0

3.2

0.4

Alabama L S U

17.1

15.2

17.5

Washington Colorado

33.6

28.5

35.1

U N L V Utah St.

-16.3

-12.5

-17.6

Arizona U C L A

1.8

3.5

2.1

Wyoming Fresno St.

-13.4

-11.6

-12.7

San Jose St. San Diego St.

7.5

6.1

8.2

 

Other Games Involving FBS Teams

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Appalachian St.

45.6

44.1

37.6

Idaho Old Dominion

-12.4

-8.6

-19.7

 

 

This Week’s Full Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Utah St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Buffalo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

U N L V

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Toledo

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Fresno St.

vs.

Notre Dame *

Military Bowl

Syracuse

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

West Virginia

Belk

Houston

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

San Jose St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas

vs.

Arizona St.

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

U S C

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Bowling Green *

vs.

Duke

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U C L A

Liberty

Florida

vs.

Marshall

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Ohio *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Georgia

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Northern Illinois

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

South Carolina

vs.

Oklahoma St.

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Ohio St.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

UL-Monroe

vs.

Ball St.

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6-win teams not chosen      
Arkansas St.

 

 

 

Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

North Carolina

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

Utah

 

 

 

 

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1 Comment

  1. wonderful submit, very informative. I wonder why the
    other experts of this sector do not realize this. You should proceed
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    Comment by Valeria — October 14, 2014 @ 1:34 am


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