Working On 3-Week Winning Streak
Things are looking a little brighter on the PiRate ship.
Our Thursday picks have been winners for three consecutive weeks, but we still warn you not to rely on these picks if you wager in Nevada at a sportsbook. We wager the same amount that you pay to read this free weekly release. We consider ourselves intelligent investors for doing such, and so should you.
Our official weekly picks at Todd Beck’s Prediction Tracker are faring wonderfully so far this season. In fact, our record against the spread is currently ahead of the pace from 2011, when the PiRate Ratings finished number one in the nation in the NFL against the spread. Picking all games against the spread, we stand at 60%, which is something we have not done in more years than we’d like to believe have past.
This week, we are breaking with our tradition a little bit. Normally, we have a reputation for coming up with sweetheart teaser plays mixed with some money line parlays. Over the past decade, our 4-team, 13-point teasers have enjoyed 59.4% wins (203-139), but we actually liked several of the straight side opportunities in college football this week.
So, we are going with nine straight college picks, two college money line parlays, and two NFL 13-point teasers.
Our headline game is an old trend that we relied on for years in a past generation, but it has not been in play for a couple of decades. Pittsburgh played Navy last week, and they play Georgia Tech this week. The Panthers have now had an extra week to prepare for Paul Johnson’s system, and it is not unorthodox to the Pitt defenders. We look for a lower scoring game and could play the totals, but we will take a side instead.
1. Pittsburgh +10 ½ vs. Georgia Tech
2. North Texas -3 vs. Rice
3. Troy -3 vs. Louisiana-Monroe
4. Washington St. +11 vs. Arizona St.
5. Akron -1 vs. Kent St.
6. Army Pk. vs. Air Force
7. Miami +22 vs. Florida St.
8. Nebraska -6 vs. Northwestern
9. Iowa +9 ½ vs. Wisconsin
10. Money Line Parlay @ Even Money +100
Rutgers over Temple
Missouri over Tennessee
Notre Dame over Navy
South Carolina over Mississippi St.
11. Money Line Parlay @ -107
Clemson over Virginia
Kansas St. over Iowa St.
Arizona over California
Auburn over Arkansas
12. 13-point Teaser
Carolina +5 ½ vs. Atlanta
Dallas +3 vs. Minnesota
St. Louis +10 vs. Tennessee
Buffalo +16 vs. Kansas City
13. 13-point Teaser (our top technical teaser so far this year *)
Oakland +10 ½ vs. Philadelphia
Baltimore +10 ½ vs. Cleveland
Indianapolis +10 ½ vs. Houston
Seattle -3 vs. Tampa Bay
* Whenever a team is favored by 2 ½, 5 ½, or 9 ½ points, a 13-point teaser turns them into a 10 ½, 7 ½, and 3 ½ point underdog. Since more NFL games end with 3, 7, and 10 point differences, these pointspreads buy us a little insurance with the tease.
Additionally a 13 ½ point favorite can be teased to a ½-point favorite, and that gives you a little insurance if you believe the team cannot lose.
The same thing works when teasing the underdog to 14 ½, 17 ½, and 21 ½ points from 1 ½, 4 ½, and 8 ½ points
Three of the four parts of the parlay in pick 13 fit this mold, while Seattle is another technical choice. For this game, the Seahawks enjoy about 5 points homefield advantage, so we are stating that Tampa Bay must be at least 2 points better than Seattle to hurt this part of the parlay.