The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 29, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–October 31-November 4, 2013

An Interesting Quarterback Comparison

Yell out when you realize which two quarterbacks this vignette refers to.

 

You have these two quarterbacks that were on the same team, said team being the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC and advance to the Super Bowl.  The first quarterback, the proven starter has the experience and has won for the team before.  He is your classic dropback passer and perfect game manager with little frills to offer.

 

The second quarterback is more of a dual-threat runner.  He can take off and run for 15 yards on 3rd and 14, but some football purists believe his style will not get a team to the Super Bowl.

 

During the middle of a season, following the coach for more than one reason names the backup as the starter for the rest of the year, and the flashy, dual-threat QB directs said team to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl.

 

The former starter is no longer needed, and he eventually emerges to take over an AFC West team, where his conservative, game-management skills has said AFC team number one in the AFC at the halfway point of the season.

 

If you guessed Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith, you are….

 

WRONG!

 

No, this story has been written at least once before.  The two quarterbacks referred to in this vignette are Roger Staubach and Craig Morton.  The two competed to win the permanent starting quarterback spot with the early 1970’s Dallas Cowboys.  Morton inherited the starting spot from the retiring Don Meredith in 1969.  He started through most of the 1970 season, and then in 1971, Coach Tom Landry actually platooned the two, sometimes shuttling them between plays.

 

Staubach led the Cowboys to their first Super Bowl championship, but Morton was back at starter the following year.  It was not until 1973 that Landry decided the scrambling QB from Navy was the clear-cut better option.  Morton moved on, first to the New York Giants, and then to the Denver Broncos, where he guided the 1977 version of Orange Crush to the AFC Championship.  Denver did not win the Super Bowl; they lost to…. Dallas.

 

Might history repeat itself?  Kansas City and San Francisco would make an interesting Super Bowl, and the possibility is there.

 

PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

103.0

105.2

103.8

Washington Redskins

96.8

96.7

96.5

New York Giants

94.7

94.3

93.7

Philadelphia Eagles

94.5

95.4

94.2

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

107.4

106.9

107.5

Chicago Bears

101.6

100.9

100.7

Detroit Lions

101.5

103.0

101.6

Minnesota Vikings

93.6

92.1

92.4

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

106.7

108.5

107.3

Carolina Panthers

103.7

103.9

103.9

Atlanta Falcons

98.3

97.3

97.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

92.5

91.3

91.8

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

109.6

110.4

110.3

Seattle Seahawks

107.7

107.8

107.5

Arizona Cardinals

97.6

99.1

97.8

St. Louis Rams

97.1

97.7

97.1

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

105.4

103.2

105.4

Miami Dolphins

98.7

98.2

98.7

Buffalo Bills

96.6

96.1

97.1

New York Jets

93.7

91.6

93.9

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.1

106.1

106.8

Baltimore Ravens

102.3

101.4

101.8

Cleveland Browns

97.5

98.1

97.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

97.4

96.2

96.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

105.3

105.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

99.7

100.0

100.3

Houston Texans

98.1

97.7

98.6

Jacksonville Jaguars

85.1

84.1

84.4

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.4

110.9

110.7

Kansas City Chiefs

103.0

104.8

103.3

San Diego Chargers

100.5

101.7

101.3

Oakland Raiders

93.9

93.7

93.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami Cincinnati

-4.4

-4.9

-5.1

Buffalo Kansas City

-3.4

-5.7

-3.2

Carolina Atlanta

7.9

9.1

8.9

Cleveland Baltimore

-1.8

-0.3

-1.3

Dallas Minnesota

12.4

16.1

14.4

Houston Indianapolis

-4.2

-5.0

-4.3

N Y Jets New Orleans

-10.0

-13.9

-10.4

New England Pittsburgh

11.0

10.0

11.6

Oakland Philadelphia

2.9

1.8

3.2

Seattle Tampa Bay

19.2

20.5

19.7

St. Louis Tennessee

0.4

0.7

-0.2

Washington San Diego

-0.2

-1.5

-1.3

Green Bay Chicago

8.3

8.5

9.3

   

 

 

 

Byes: Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Francisco

 

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

 

Kansas City over Indianapolis

New England over San Diego

San Francisco over Dallas

Green Bay over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver

Cincinnati over New England

San Francisco over Seattle

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Championship Round

Cincinnati over Kansas City

Green Bay over San Francisco

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Cincinnati

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