The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 28, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football: October 30-November 2, 2013

Bowl Picture Starting To Get Clearer

As of today, October 28, 2013, the PiRate Ratings staff believes that about 76 or 77 teams will become bowl eligible for the 70 bowl spots.  In this list, it looks like a strong possibility that every seven-win team eligible for postseason play will earn a bowl bid, as six or seven six-win teams will miss out.

 

Here is our breakdown by conference on the bowl projections.

 

AAC: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 5 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

With SMU, South Florida, and Memphis failing to win close crucial games this year, we believe this new league will come up one team short.

 

Central Florida has one major roadblock to overcome, but that game against Houston is at home.  If Houston upsets UCF, the Cougars will still have to win at Louisville to claim the automatic BCS berth.  We’re going with the Knights to win out.

 

Louisville could be 11-1 and do no better than the Russell Athletic Bowl.

 

1. BCS (Sugar): Central Florida

2. Russell Athletic: Louisville

3. Belk: Houston

4. Pinstripe: Rutgers (Scarlet Knights back to Yankee Stadium for 2nd time)

5. BBVA Compass: Cincinnati (check SEC opponent for human interest)

6. Beef O’Brady’s: No Team Available

 

ACC: 8 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 9th bid) – 9 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Florida St. and Miami will most likely face off twice this year.  One of the rivals must win both games to have a chance to advance to the BCS National Championship Game, and still they will need help.

 

Clemson holds onto hopes for a BCS at-large bid, but if Miami and Florida St. split, the Tigers will do no better than Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

 

Duke is bowl eligible for a second consecutive year.  Check out the unique bowl possibility we have for David Cutcliffe’s team when you read the SEC opponent scheduled to face the Blue Devils in our bowl projection.

 

1. BCS (Orange): Florida St.

2. Chick-fil-A: Clemson

3. Russell Athletic: Miami

4. Sun: Virginia Tech

5. Belk: Maryland

6. Music City: Duke

7. Advocare V100: Georgia Tech

8. Military: North Carolina (great comeback to 6-6)

Also Bowl Eligible: Syracuse at 6-6

 

Big 12: 7 Bowl Tie-Ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Baylor becomes the heavy favorite now that Texas Tech has lost to Oklahoma, but Tech, OU, and Texas are still alive, and if Oklahoma St. can find a quarterback who can complete anything more than a screen pass, the Cowboys are still in the mix.

 

Until somebody knocks off Baylor, we will keep the Bears in the top spot.  As for Oklahoma, if the Sooners finish 10-2, we believe they will trump any other 10-2 team from other conferences except for Stanford and the number two SEC team.  A 10-2 Texas Tech team does not look as fortunate.

 

West Virginia and TCU have sunk below the bowl eligible line, and Kansas and Iowa St. are going nowhere, so if this league sends two teams to BCS bowls, there will be two bowl spots left unfilled for at-large teams elsewhere.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Baylor

2. BCS (Orange): Oklahoma

3. Cotton: Texas

4. Alamo: Texas Tech

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Oklahoma St.

6. Holiday: Kansas St.

7. Texas: No Team Available

8. Pinstripe: No Team Available

 

Big Ten: 8 Bowl Tie-ins – 8 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Ohio St. can win out by an average of 45-0, and the Buckeyes will not make it to the BCS National Championship Game unless two of the powers ahead of them lose.  The Buckeyes could extend their winning streak to 26 games without having the opportunity to compete for a national championship.  Penn St. went 11-0 in 1968 and in 1969 and was in the same boat.

 

A lot of our fellow bowl projectionists have a second Big Ten team in the BCS, but we believe cannibalism from within the league will take the possible number two teams out of the picture.  Our best bet to sneak into the BCS as a league runner-up is Michigan St.  This league needs both Fresno St. and Northern Illinois to lose.

 

1. BCS (Rose): Ohio St.

2. Capital One: Michigan St.

3. Outback: Wisconsin

4. Gator: Michigan

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Nebraska

6. Texas: Iowa

7. Heart of Dallas: Minnesota

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Indiana (first bid in 6 years and they may not like it so much)

 

C U S A: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

This league is down quite a lot since most of the best teams defected to the AAC, and Tulsa is headed to a losing record.  It makes for a wide open race in both divisions.

 

In the East, the Marshall-East Carolina winner will most likely win the division.  The West is a lot more uncertain.  Tulane, Rice, and North Texas are in a hot race, and it is possible that all three could end up 7-1 in the league.

 

1. Liberty: Tulane

2. Heart of Dallas: Rice

3. Military: Marshall

4. Beef O’Brady’s: East Carolina

5. Hawaii: North Texas

6. New Orleans: Middle Tennessee

 

Independents: 3 Bowl Tie-ins + Notre Dame – 3 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Notre Dame does not appear to be in line for BCS bowl qualification, so the Fighting Irish will have to claim an at-large bid.

 

BYU and Navy have automatic tie-ins and will earn those invitations.  Army has an automatic tie-in but will not earn that invitation.

 

1. At-large (Pinstripe): Notre Dame (perfect spot for the Irish—Yankee Stadium

2. Armed Forces: Navy

3. Kraft Fight Hunger: B Y U

4. Poinsettia: No team (Army not bowl eligible)

 

M A C: 3 Bowl Tie-ins – 7 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Northern Illinois sits just one spot behind Fresno St. in the BCS rankings, and it is debatable whether wins over Ball St., Toledo, and the East Division title winner will be enough to prepare the Huskies over a Fresno St. team that wins out.

 

We are going to make an assumption that if Northern Illinois finishes 13-0 or 12-1, the MAC may try to shop the Huskies to a larger bowl in a backroom deal.  There will be more than enough league teams to fill the regular three bowl spots, and freeing NIU from the league’s top bowl bid might allow another bowl to end up with a much better matchup that promises extra press coverage.

 

1. Special Deal to Las Vegas Bowl: Northern Illinois

2. GoDaddy.com: Toledo

3. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Ball St. (to face in-state rival Indiana)

4. Famous Idaho Potato: Ohio

5. At-Large Selection to Poinsettia: Bowling Green

6. At-Large Selection to Texas: Buffalo

Also Eligible: Central Michigan

 

M W C: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

If Fresno St. wins out and then wins the MWC Championship Game, it will be difficult for the Bulldogs not to qualify for a BCS Bowl.  Northern Illinois could possibly jump FSU, but it is not highly probable.

 

If Fresno St. qualifies for a BCS Bowl, then the Las Vegas Bowl would be faced with the possibility that Boise St. would be headed there for the fourth consecutive season.  We have included a special deal to bring Northern Illinois to Vegas, which will free a rebuilding Boise St. team to stay at home during bowl season.

 

A couple of MWC dark horse teams are in line for bowls this year.  Colorado St. looked very competitive against Alabama, and since then the Rams have turned the corner.  UNLV was picked to finish last in the West Division, and it was expected that this would be Coach Bobby Hauck’s last season in Vegas.  However, the Rebels are just one win away from bowl eligibility, and they will get that sixth win and probably a seventh.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Fresno St.

X. Las Vegas: Spot Dealt to Northern Illinois

2. Poinsettia: Utah St.

3. Armed Forces: U N L V

4. New Mexico: Colorado St.

5. Hawaii: San Jose St.

6. Famous Idaho Potato: Boise St.

 

Pac-12: 7 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 8th bid) – 10 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Oregon has a couple of tough games remaining, beginning with the big one against Stanford next Thursday evening.  The Ducks can score against any defense, but whether they can stop or slow down a top-rate power running team like Alabama is a major question.  Stanford is about two touchdowns weaker than ‘Bama, so it should offer a little preview of a possible national championship matchup.

 

The rest of the league will have a difficult time separating themselves from each other.  In the South Division, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St., and even USC are still alive.  We are going with a tie on this side, and we believe Arizona has the best chance to emerge as the division representative in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

Washington St. may become bowl eligible for the first time since 2006, but like 2006, they could find themselves without a bowl bid.  The Cougars could join Utah as 6-6 teams having to wait for all the seven-win teams to be invited ahead of them.

 

1. BCS (National Championship): Oregon

2. BCS (Rose): Stanford

3. Alamo: UCLA

4. Holiday: Arizona

5. Sun: Oregon St.

6. Las Vegas: Arizona St.

7. Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington

8. New Mexico: USC

Also Eligible: Washington St., Utah

 

S E C: 10 Bowl Tie-ins – 11 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

There is actually a possibility that 12 teams will become bowl eligible, but we are sticking with 11 for now.  It is almost a metaphysical certitude that two league teams will earn trips to BCS bowls.

 

Alabama has won numerous national championships in the past, and in many of those years, the Crimson Tide started slowly and steadily improved as the season progressed.  This year, the Tide looked beatable earlier in the year, but since the Colorado St. game, the Tide has looked more like the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

 

And, who might be the second best team in the SEC at the present time?  How about the War Eagles?  Auburn coach Gus Malzahn may earn National Coach of The Year honors.

 

South Carolina’s big comeback win over Missouri after trailing 17-0 in the fourth quarter has given the Gamecocks a big chance to advance to their first ever SEC Championship Game.  If Florida beats Georgia this week and if Missouri loses to either Ole Miss or Texas A&M, and USC beats Mississippi St. and Florida, then Steve Spurrier’s club will win the East.  If USC, Mizzou, and Georgia finish tied at 6-2, then Missouri will win the tiebreaker.

 

A couple of interesting bowl possibilities have arisen in recent weeks.  Ole Miss could end up in Nashville against Duke, pitting Coach Cutcliffe against his old team.  Tennessee needs wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, or one of those two and Auburn, to get to six wins.  It is possible that Coach Butch Jones’ Vols could face Cincinnati, Jones’ old team.

 

1. BCS (National Championship Game): Alabama

2. BCS (Sugar): Auburn

3. Capital One: Texas A&M

4. Outback: South Carolina

5. Cotton: L S U

6. Chick-fil-A: Missouri

7. Gator: Florida

8. Music City: Ole Miss

9. Liberty: Georgia

10. BBVA Compass: Tennessee

11. Advocare V100: Vanderbilt

 

Sunbelt: 2 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

We are projecting six bowl-eligible teams here, but three of the teams are expected to finish 6-6 and have no chance of receiving invitations.  Of the remaining three expected to finish above .500, only two are guaranteed a bowl, but the third has an excellent chance of earning a semi-at-large bid.  This league has secondary agreements with a couple additional bowls, and we project one of those bowls will need an at-large team.

 

1. New Orleans: UL-Lafayette

2. GoDaddy.com: Troy

3. At-Large (Beef O’Brady’s): Texas St.

Also Eligible: Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., UL-Monroe

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

130.4

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Stanford

126.0

6

Ohio St.

125.7

7

L S U

123.0

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Missouri

122.1

10

Texas A&M

121.5

11

Ole Miss

120.0

12

Oklahoma St.

119.9

13

Wisconsin

119.9

14

Washington

119.7

15

South Carolina

119.5

16

Texas

119.4

17

Oregon St.

118.4

18

Clemson

117.8

19

U C L A

117.3

20

Miami

116.6

21

Michigan St.

116.5

22

Arizona

116.4

23

Florida

116.3

24

Oklahoma

115.8

25

Auburn

115.6

26

Louisville

115.5

27

B Y U

114.8

28

Michigan

114.7

29

Georgia

114.6

30

Notre Dame

113.8

31

U S C

112.7

32

Nebraska

112.6

33

Georgia Tech

112.4

34

Texas Tech

111.0

35

Kansas St.

110.7

36

Virginia Tech

109.4

37

Central Florida

108.9

38

T C U

108.8

39

Northwestern

108.3

40

Utah

108.0

41

Iowa

106.5

42

Mississippi St.

106.4

43

North Carolina

106.2

44

Vanderbilt

105.6

45

Tennessee

105.5

46

Penn St.

105.2

47

Minnesota

105.0

48

Boise St.

104.7

49

Indiana

104.7

50

Cincinnati

104.3

51

Utah St.

104.3

52

Fresno St.

104.0

53

Washington St.

103.7

54

East Carolina

103.4

55

Duke

102.4

56

Houston

102.0

57

Northern Illinois

101.6

58

Ball St.

101.1

59

Wake Forest

100.6

60

Boston College

100.6

61

West Virginia

100.1

62

Toledo

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Pittsburgh

99.1

65

Kentucky

99.1

66

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.0

67

Syracuse

99.0

68

Buffalo

97.8

69

Rice

97.4

70

North Texas

97.3

71

Marshall

97.0

72

Illinois

97.0

73

San Jose St.

96.8

74

Rutgers

96.4

75

Colorado St.

96.0

76

Maryland

95.9

77

Arkansas

95.2

78

Iowa St.

95.2

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Navy

93.9

82

San Diego St.

93.1

83

Virginia

92.4

84

Kansas

92.0

85

California

91.8

86

North Carolina St.

91.3

87

Tulsa

91.0

88

Arkansas St.

90.7

89

Purdue

90.5

90

Memphis

90.4

91

Western Kentucky

90.2

92

Tulane

88.6

93

Colorado

88.3

94

U T S A

87.7

95

Wyoming

87.7

96

Florida Atlantic

87.7

97

South Florida

87.5

98

South Alabama

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

87.2

100

Kent St.

87.1

101

Nevada

86.8

102

U N L V

86.7

103

Temple

86.6

104

Middle Tennessee

86.0

105

Hawaii

84.3

106

Army

84.0

107

Troy

83.6

108

Connecticut

83.5

109

Central Michigan

82.8

110

Akron

82.2

111

Texas St.

81.9

112

U A B

81.5

113

U T E P

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.2

115

Louisiana Tech

79.5

116

Air Force

77.9

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

74.0

119

Miami (O)

73.0

120

Eastern Michigan

71.5

121

Southern Miss.

69.4

122

Idaho

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

69.1

124

Florida Int’l

68.8

125

Georgia St.

62.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

134.8

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

124.5

5

Arizona St.

122.2

6

L S U

121.1

7

Baylor

121.0

8

Wisconsin

120.7

9

Missouri

119.9

10

Texas A&M

118.9

11

Clemson

118.8

12

Stanford

118.5

13

Miami

117.5

14

Michigan St.

117.3

15

South Carolina

117.0

16

Ole Miss

116.9

17

Washington

115.6

18

Auburn

114.9

19

Michigan

114.8

20

Louisville

114.6

21

B Y U

113.5

22

Florida

113.5

23

Arizona

113.2

24

Georgia

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.8

26

Notre Dame

111.6

27

U C L A

111.6

28

Georgia Tech

111.5

29

Houston

111.3

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Nebraska

111.0

32

Texas

110.9

33

Oklahoma St.

110.6

34

Oregon St.

110.0

35

U S C

110.0

36

Virginia Tech

109.9

37

North Carolina

107.9

38

Texas Tech

107.3

39

Indiana

107.0

40

Penn St.

106.3

41

Northwestern

105.9

42

Iowa

105.8

43

Utah

105.7

44

East Carolina

105.5

45

Ball St.

104.7

46

Tennessee

104.5

47

Minnesota

104.2

48

T C U

104.2

49

Wake Forest

104.1

50

Mississippi St.

103.6

51

Northern Illinois

103.5

52

Duke

103.4

53

Fresno St.

103.3

54

Kansas St.

103.2

55

Cincinnati

103.2

56

Washington St.

103.0

57

Vanderbilt

103.0

58

Utah St.

101.9

59

Toledo

101.3

60

Boston College

100.9

61

Boise St.

100.8

62

Marshall

100.8

63

Rice

100.3

64

Louisiana–Lafayette

100.3

65

Bowling Green

100.2

66

Buffalo

100.1

67

Maryland

99.9

68

Rutgers

99.9

69

North Texas

99.6

70

Illinois

98.9

71

Kentucky

98.9

72

Pittsburgh

98.5

73

Ohio

98.5

74

Arkansas

98.3

75

Syracuse

97.4

76

S M U

96.3

77

Colorado St.

96.3

78

Memphis

96.3

79

Navy

95.7

80

North Carolina St.

95.4

81

Virginia

94.4

82

San Jose St.

93.8

83

West Virginia

92.6

84

Tulane

92.0

85

San Diego St.

91.9

86

Western Kentucky

91.8

87

South Alabama

91.3

88

Middle Tennessee

91.1

89

Army

90.1

90

Tulsa

89.9

91

Colorado

89.9

92

U T S A

89.8

93

Kent St.

89.6

94

Florida Atlantic

89.3

95

U N L V

89.1

96

Wyoming

89.0

97

Nevada

88.9

98

Kansas

88.7

99

Louisiana–Monroe

87.9

100

Purdue

87.9

101

Arkansas St.

87.9

102

Temple

87.5

103

California

87.4

104

Texas St.

87.4

105

Iowa St.

86.8

106

Troy

86.7

107

Akron

85.9

108

Central Michigan

85.5

109

Hawaii

84.7

110

New Mexico

84.1

111

U T E P

83.2

112

South Florida

82.6

113

U A B

82.3

114

Louisiana Tech

81.9

115

Air Force

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

79.4

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

Eastern Michigan

74.6

121

Idaho

73.8

122

New Mexico St.

72.4

123

Florida Int’l

70.8

124

Southern Miss.

69.1

125

Georgia St.

69.0

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

132.4

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

125.9

6

Stanford

125.3

7

L S U

123.7

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Missouri

121.3

10

Texas A&M

121.3

11

Wisconsin

120.8

12

Ole Miss

119.6

13

Oklahoma St.

119.5

14

Washington

119.4

15

Texas

118.6

16

South Carolina

118.6

17

Clemson

118.5

18

Miami

116.9

19

Oregon St.

116.6

20

Louisville

116.5

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Auburn

115.8

23

U C L A

115.8

24

Michigan St.

115.5

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Oklahoma

115.1

27

Florida

115.0

28

Michigan

114.3

29

Georgia

113.7

30

Georgia Tech

112.6

31

Notre Dame

112.4

32

U S C

112.2

33

Nebraska

111.4

34

Texas Tech

110.4

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Kansas St.

110.1

37

T C U

108.8

38

Virginia Tech

108.7

39

Northwestern

108.1

40

Utah

107.6

41

Iowa

107.1

42

North Carolina

107.1

43

Mississippi St.

106.0

44

Boise St.

105.9

45

Utah St.

105.8

46

Vanderbilt

104.9

47

Minnesota

104.7

48

Washington St.

104.5

49

Tennessee

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.4

51

Fresno St.

104.3

52

Indiana

104.2

53

East Carolina

104.2

54

Cincinnati

103.7

55

Houston

103.6

56

Ball St.

102.3

57

Northern Illinois

101.9

58

Duke

101.9

59

Boston College

101.7

60

Wake Forest

101.5

61

Toledo

100.9

62

Bowling Green

100.2

63

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.8

64

Kentucky

99.8

65

Buffalo

99.3

66

Pittsburgh

99.0

67

West Virginia

98.6

68

North Texas

98.4

69

Marshall

98.4

70

Rice

97.8

71

Syracuse

97.7

72

San Jose St.

97.6

73

Maryland

97.3

74

Colorado St.

97.0

75

Rutgers

96.8

76

Illinois

96.6

77

Ohio

95.5

78

Iowa St.

94.1

79

Navy

93.9

80

Arkansas

93.7

81

San Diego St.

93.4

82

S M U

93.4

83

Virginia

92.9

84

North Carolina St.

91.9

85

Kansas

91.4

86

Memphis

91.2

87

Western Kentucky

90.3

88

Arkansas St.

90.2

89

California

90.1

90

Tulsa

90.1

91

Tulane

89.1

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Florida Atlantic

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.4

95

Purdue

87.9

96

Kent St.

87.8

97

U T S A

87.4

98

Louisiana–Monroe

87.2

99

U N L V

87.1

100

Middle Tennessee

86.9

101

Nevada

86.9

102

South Florida

86.8

103

Colorado

86.3

104

Temple

86.0

105

Army

85.7

106

Hawaii

85.0

107

Troy

84.6

108

Connecticut

82.8

109

Akron

82.7

110

Central Michigan

82.3

111

Texas St.

82.2

112

U A B

80.8

113

New Mexico

80.6

114

U T E P

80.4

115

Louisiana Tech

78.4

116

Air Force

77.4

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

74.0

119

Miami (O)

71.5

120

Eastern Michigan

70.2

121

Idaho

68.7

122

Florida Int’l

68.6

123

Southern Miss.

68.6

124

New Mexico St.

68.6

125

Georgia St.

63.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

2-1

5-2

104.3

103.2

103.7

Houston

3-0

6-1

102.0

111.3

103.6

Rutgers

1-2

4-3

96.4

99.9

96.8

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-3

1-5

90.4

96.3

91.2

South Florida

2-1

2-5

87.5

82.6

86.8

Temple

0-4

1-7

86.6

87.5

86.0

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

5-0

7-0

130.4

134.8

132.4

Clemson

5-1

7-1

117.8

118.8

118.5

Wake Forest

2-3

4-4

100.6

104.1

101.5

Boston College

1-3

3-4

100.6

100.9

101.7

Syracuse

1-2

3-4

99.0

97.4

97.7

Maryland

1-3

5-3

95.9

99.9

97.3

North Carolina St.

0-4

3-4

91.3

95.4

91.9

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-0

7-0

116.6

117.5

116.9

Georgia Tech

4-2

5-3

112.4

111.5

112.6

Virginia Tech

3-1

6-2

109.4

109.9

108.7

North Carolina

1-3

2-5

106.2

107.9

107.1

Duke

2-2

6-2

102.4

103.4

101.9

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-3

99.1

98.5

99.0

Virginia

0-4

2-6

92.4

94.4

92.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

4-0

7-0

128.2

121.0

130.1

Oklahoma St.

3-1

6-1

119.9

110.6

119.5

Texas

4-0

5-2

119.4

110.9

118.6

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

115.8

111.3

115.1

Texas Tech

4-1

7-1

111.0

107.3

110.4

Kansas St.

1-3

3-4

110.7

103.2

110.1

T C U

1-4

3-5

108.8

104.2

108.8

West Virginia

1-4

3-5

100.1

92.6

98.6

Iowa St.

0-4

1-6

95.2

86.8

94.1

Kansas

0-4

2-5

92.0

88.7

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

4-0

8-0

125.7

124.5

125.9

Wisconsin

3-1

5-2

119.9

120.7

120.8

Penn St.

1-2

4-3

105.2

106.3

104.4

Indiana

1-2

3-4

104.7

107.0

104.2

Illinois

0-3

3-4

97.0

98.9

96.6

Purdue

0-3

1-6

90.5

87.9

87.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

4-0

7-1

116.5

117.3

115.5

Michigan

2-1

6-1

114.7

114.8

114.3

Nebraska

2-1

5-2

112.6

111.0

111.4

Northwestern

0-4

4-4

108.3

105.9

108.1

Iowa

2-2

5-3

106.5

105.8

107.1

Minnesota

2-2

6-2

105.0

104.2

104.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

3-1

5-2

103.4

105.5

104.2

Marshall

2-1

4-3

97.0

100.8

98.4

Florida Atlantic

1-4

2-6

87.7

89.3

88.4

Middle Tennessee

2-2

4-4

86.0

91.1

86.9

U A B

1-2

2-5

81.5

82.3

80.8

Southern Miss.

0-3

0-7

69.4

69.1

68.6

Florida Int’l

1-2

1-6

68.8

70.8

68.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

4-0

6-2

97.4

100.3

97.8

North Texas

3-1

5-3

97.3

99.6

98.4

Tulsa

1-2

2-5

91.0

89.9

90.1

Tulane

4-0

6-2

88.6

92.0

89.1

U T S A

2-2

3-5

87.7

89.8

87.4

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-5

80.8

83.2

80.4

U T E P

0-4

1-6

79.5

81.9

78.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.9

89.0

87.0

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-2

114.8

113.5

115.8

Notre Dame

 

6-2

113.8

111.6

112.4

Navy

 

4-3

93.9

95.7

93.9

Army

 

3-5

84.0

90.1

85.7

Idaho

 

1-7

69.1

73.8

68.7

New Mexico St.

 

1-7

69.1

72.4

68.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.8

92.9

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-1

5-3

99.8

100.2

100.2

Buffalo

4-0

6-2

97.8

100.1

99.3

Ohio

3-1

6-2

94.7

98.5

95.5

Kent St.

1-4

2-7

87.1

89.6

87.8

Akron

1-4

2-7

82.2

85.9

82.7

Massachusetts

1-3

1-7

74.0

79.4

74.0

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

73.0

76.5

71.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

4-0

8-0

101.6

103.5

101.9

Ball St.

5-0

8-1

101.1

104.7

102.3

Toledo

3-1

5-3

99.8

101.3

100.9

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

1-4

1-8

75.5

76.9

75.6

Eastern Michigan

0-4

1-7

71.5

74.6

70.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

3-1

5-3

104.7

100.8

105.9

Utah St.

3-1

4-4

104.3

101.9

105.8

Colorado St.

2-1

4-4

96.0

96.3

97.0

Wyoming

2-2

4-4

87.7

89.0

88.7

New Mexico

0-3

2-5

80.2

84.1

80.6

Air Force

0-5

1-7

77.9

80.9

77.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

4-0

7-0

104.0

103.3

104.3

San Jose St.

3-1

4-3

96.8

93.8

97.6

San Diego St.

2-1

3-4

93.1

91.9

93.4

Nevada

2-3

3-5

86.8

88.9

86.9

U N L V

3-1

5-3

86.7

89.1

87.1

Hawaii

0-5

0-7

84.3

84.7

85.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.9

92.1

92.5

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-0

8-0

135.6

132.5

136.8

Stanford

5-1

7-1

126.0

118.5

125.3

Washington

2-3

5-3

119.7

115.6

119.4

Oregon St.

4-1

6-2

118.4

110.0

116.6

Washington St.

2-3

4-4

103.7

103.0

104.5

California

0-5

1-7

91.8

87.4

90.1

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

3-1

5-2

122.6

122.2

122.6

U C L A

2-2

5-2

117.3

111.6

115.8

Arizona

2-2

5-2

116.4

113.2

115.3

U S C

2-2

5-3

112.7

110.0

112.2

Utah

1-4

4-4

108.0

105.7

107.6

Colorado

0-4

3-4

88.3

89.9

86.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

3-1

7-1

122.1

119.9

121.3

South Carolina

4-2

6-2

119.5

117.0

118.6

Florida

3-2

4-3

116.3

113.5

115.0

Georgia

3-2

4-3

114.6

111.9

113.7

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.6

103.0

104.9

Tennessee

1-3

4-4

105.5

104.5

104.5

Kentucky

0-4

1-6

99.1

98.9

99.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

5-0

8-0

137.1

133.3

138.2

L S U

3-2

7-2

123.0

121.1

123.7

Texas A&M

3-2

6-2

121.5

118.9

121.3

Ole Miss

2-3

5-3

120.0

116.9

119.6

Auburn

3-1

7-1

115.6

114.9

115.8

Mississippi St.

1-2

4-3

106.4

103.6

106.0

Arkansas

0-4

3-5

95.2

98.3

93.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

3-0

5-2

99.0

100.3

99.8

Arkansas St.

1-1

3-4

90.7

87.9

90.2

Western Kentucky

1-3

4-4

90.2

91.8

90.3

South Alabama

1-2

3-4

87.5

91.3

88.4

Louisiana–Monroe

2-1

4-4

87.2

87.9

87.2

Troy

3-1

5-3

83.6

86.7

84.6

Texas St.

2-2

5-3

81.9

87.4

82.2

Georgia St.

0-3

0-8

62.6

69.0

63.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.3

87.8

85.8

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

5-3

83.3

84.1

90.0

Georgia Southern

 

4-2

83.1

85.5

90.2

Appalachian St.

 

1-6

73.6

72.5

80.7

Charlotte

 

4-4

58.5

63.1

65.6

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.6

76.3

81.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis Cincinnati

-10.9

-3.9

-9.5

Houston South Florida

17.5

31.7

19.8

North Texas Rice

2.4

1.8

3.1

Troy UL-Monroe

-1.1

1.3

-0.1

Washington St. Arizona St.

-15.9

-16.2

-15.1

Oregon St. U S C

8.7

3.0

7.4

Missouri Tennessee

19.6

18.4

19.8

Arkansas Auburn

-17.4

-13.6

-19.1

Purdue Ohio St.

-32.2

-33.6

-35.0

Boston College Virginia Tech

-5.8

-6.0

-4.0

Massachusetts Northern Illinois

-25.6

-22.1

-25.9

Rutgers Temple

11.8

14.4

12.8

Penn St. Illinois

11.2

10.4

10.8

Air Force Army

-3.1

-6.2

-5.3

Iowa Wisconsin

-10.4

-11.9

-10.7

South Carolina Mississippi St.

16.1

16.4

15.6

North Carolina St. North Carolina

-12.9

-10.5

-13.2

Syracuse Wake Forest

1.4

-3.7

-0.8

Marshall Southern Miss.

30.1

34.2

32.3

U A B Middle Tennessee

-2.0

-6.3

-3.6

Georgia St. Western Kentucky

-25.6

-20.8

-24.6

Virginia Clemson

-22.4

-21.4

-22.6

Michigan St. Michigan

3.8

4.5

3.2

Nebraska Northwestern

7.3

8.1

6.3

California Arizona

-21.6

-22.8

-22.2

Florida (Jacksonville) Georgia

1.7

1.6

1.3

Indiana Minnesota

2.7

5.8

2.5

Notre Dame Navy

22.9

18.9

21.5

Tulsa U T S A

6.3

3.1

5.7

Texas Kansas

30.4

25.2

30.2

Akron Kent St.

-2.4

-2.2

-2.6

Kansas St. Iowa St.

18.5

19.4

19.1

T C U West Virginia

11.7

14.6

13.2

Utah St. Hawaii

24.0

21.2

24.8

U N L V San Jose St.

-7.6

-2.2

-8.0

Idaho Texas St.

-10.3

-11.1

-11.0

UL-Lafayette New Mexico St.

32.9

30.9

34.2

Florida Atlantic Tulane

2.1

0.3

2.3

Florida Int’l East Carolina

-32.1

-32.2

-33.1

Texas Tech Oklahoma St.

-5.9

-0.3

-6.1

Georgia Tech Pittsburgh

16.3

11.1

16.6

Toledo Eastern Michigan

31.3

29.7

33.7

U C L A Colorado

32.0

24.7

32.5

South Alabama Arkansas St.

-0.7

5.9

0.7

Florida St. Miami

16.3

19.8

18.0

San Diego St. New Mexico

15.9

10.8

15.8

Colorado St. Boise St.

-5.7

-1.5

-5.9

Texas A&M U T E P

45.0

40.0

45.9

Fresno St. Nevada

20.2

17.4

20.4

 

 

Complete Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

U S C

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Northern Illinois ^

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

Boise St.

vs.

Ohio

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Texas St. *

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Indiana

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Bowling Green *

Military Bowl

North Carolina

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Buffalo *

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Houston

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy

Music City

Duke

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas Tech

vs.

U C L A

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

Arizona

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Vanderbilt

vs.

Georgia Tech

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

Oregon St.

Liberty

Georgia

vs.

Tulane

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

Missouri

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Minnesota

Gator

Michigan

vs.

Florida

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Wisconsin

Capital One

Michigan St.

vs.

Texas A&M

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Texas

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Oklahoma

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Tennessee

GoDaddy.com

Troy

vs.

Stanford

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

^ Special Deal to allow NIU to play in better bowl and Boise St. to play in home bowl

 

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