The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 1, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–October 3-5, 2013

Key Games This Week

THURSDAY

U C L A at Utah

The Bruins are in a trap game in Salt Lake City.  Utah is on the bowl bubble.  The Utes will need one upset in conference play to get to that magical six-win mark, and if it happens, it will more than likely be a home game.  If it isn’t this one, then Stanford offers the only other upset opportunity at home.  Obviously, this is the easier one of the two powers to defeat, but easier does not mean easy.  It will be closer to a miracle for the Utes to win either game.

 

As for the Bruins, this game could be disaster if they lose.  After a home game with Cal, UCLA must face Stanford and Oregon back-to-back on the road, and then later visits Arizona.  A loss in this game means the Bruins do not win the South Division.

 

SATURDAY

Washington at Stanford

This is the top game of the week, as two undefeated challengers to Oregon square off in Palo Alto.  Washington’s win over Arizona verified that the impressive wins over Boise St. and Illinois were legitimate.  This team can compete with their opponent this week.

 

Stanford finally put together a complete game in dispensing with Washington St.  The Cardinal offense is complete with power running that requires bringing an extra man in the box to stop and with vertical passing that can burn any defense that brings an extra man in the box to stop the run.

 

If Washington’s defense can hold Stanford to 28 points, the Huskies have an excellent shot at pulling off the road upset.  However, Stanford’s offense is getting better every week, and even a much improved UW defense may have a tough time keeping the Cardinal attack off the board.

 

Maryland at Florida St.

Before last week, Maryland’s 4-0 start was not all that impressive due to the fact that they had beaten four less than mediocre opponents.  When West Virginia ambushed Oklahoma St., and then Oklahoma beat Notre Dame on the road by a touchdown more than they had defeated West Virginia at home, the Terps’ 37-0 win over the Mountaineers began to look much more substantial.  Maybe this Maryland team is really good after all.

 

Florida St. faced some tough opposition with surprising Boston College before getting untracked on offense.  The Seminoles cannot afford to overlook Maryland, but they just might do it.  FSU’s next game is at Clemson, which should decide the Atlantic Division title.  This game should be close, at least for 30-45 minutes.

 

Arkansas at Florida

We expect a low-scoring, old fashion SEC game here.  Florida’s defense should be able to contain the Razorback running game, but the question will be how much Florida can amass on the offensive end.  The winner of this game stays alive for the Gator Bowl, while the loser drops to Liberty and Music City Bowl range.

 

Kansas St. at Oklahoma St.

Will Oklahoma St. lose to West Virginia two weeks in a row?  By this, we mean will the Cowboys be deflated from their loss in Morgantown and not show up against the Wildcats?

 

Kansas St. had an extra week to prepare after losing at Texas two weeks ago, and the Wildcats all of a sudden need to search for four more wins to become bowl eligible.  We think KSU has five wins for sure with the remaining schedule, so they will need to win one game that figures to be tough.  This one is a great opportunity, but we are not sure they have the talent to pull it off.

 

Ole Miss at Auburn

Call this a bowl positioning game.  Ole Miss found out last week that they are not ready to fight the pit bulls of the league.  This week, they will find out if they can compete with the collies or if they can only beat shelties.  This is a must win if the Rebels want to make it to the Chick-fil-A or Gator Bowls.

 

Auburn’s schedule sets the Tigers up for six or seven wins, with this game being the decider on whether it is six or seven.  With seven, Auburn could avoid Shreveport and Birmingham.

 

Missouri at Vanderbilt

Talk about a key game for both teams.  Missouri is 4-0 with three wins over opponents that may prove to be decent but are not close to SEC quality.  Vanderbilt is 3-2 with three wins over patsies and two conference losses to the second waive of SEC power.

 

If Missouri wins this road game, the Tigers will definitely get to eight wins and could add one or two more.  They would make the following week’s game at Georgia a real grudge match.  If the Tigers lose, then it could start a slide of four losses in a row.

 

Vanderbilt needs three more wins to become bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.  The last time the Commodores finished .500 or above in the regular season for three consecutive years was 1957-58-59.  With Kentucky and Wake Forest still to face Vandy, the Commodores will need to win just one additional game to make it to Shreveport or Birmingham and two additional games to return to Memphis or even sneak to Jacksonville.

 

Last year, Tiger quarterback James Franklin suffered a first half injury in this game.  At the time, Missouri was handing it to the Commodores, but after the injury, the Tigers did absolutely nothing, allowing VU to come back and win.

 

Vanderbilt has had its share of distractions this season with four players dismissed following a nasty sex crime incident.  Now, it has to deal with another.  Head Coach James Franklin (no relation to Mizzou QB) has been mentioned in almost every major sports media outlet as one of the top candidates for the Southern Cal coaching job.

 

Georgia Tech at Miami

Virginia Tech stopped the Yellow Jackets’ option attack last week, forcing GT to throw the ball 24 times.  Miami’s defense may not be quite as strong at the Hokies’, but the Hurricane offense is much more potent.  If Miami can get to November undefeated, and it is highly possible if they win this game, then the November 2nd game at Florida St. will be just like the 1980’s and early 1990’s.

 

Georgia Tech is on the Sun-Music City Bowl line, and the Engineers must pick off a big boy in order to move up to a more prestigious bowl possibility.

 

East Carolina at Middle Tennessee

Conference USA’s power is in the Eastern Division this year, as Tulsa and Rice have not lived up to expectations.  The Liberty Bowl representative in this watered down league should come from one of the top three in this division.  These are two of the top three (Marshall), and they face off in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, Saturday.

 

ECU may overlook the Blue Raiders, and the Pirates must not get too high after celebrating a big win at North Carolina this past Saturday.  When teams pull of a big upset and then follow it up with a road game the next week, chances are high that they will underperform.  An underperformance should be just enough to make this a tossup game.

 

Illinois at Nebraska

Bo Pelini cannot afford to lose at home to a team that Cornhusker fans perceive to be a non-power.  While we do not believe Nebraska will make a coaching change in midseason like USC and Connecticut, chances are strong that there will be a new man in place in 2014.  A loss in this one will make it difficult for Pelini to keep the corn from rotting before it can mature.

 

Illinois is not chopped liver.  Their lone loss was a competitive game against Washington.  Coach Tim Beckman turned Toledo into an exciting team that won with an offense that could both run and pass for more than 200 yards.  He is in the process of molding the Illini into just that, another dominating offensive team.  This philosophy may never win a Big Ten title, but Illinois has enough firepower to outscore Nebraska in a shootout.

 

Michigan St. at Iowa

This game could be the most interesting of the week.  The Big Ten Legends Division is a muddled race.  Just when one team looks overpowering, they lay an egg.  Just when one team looks mediocre, they get off the mat and become dominating.

 

Michigan St. is starting to look like a team on the decline.  The Spartans struggled with a weak Western Michigan team to open the season.  A win over a hapless South Florida team was not impressive at all.  After an easy blowout of FCS weakling Youngstown St., MSU actually looked its best in a loss at Notre Dame.  Sparty’s defense is more than capable, but the offense is not title-winning quality.

 

Iowa began the season losing at home to Northern Illinois.  It looked like Coach Kirk Ferentz was possibly developing a warm seat in Iowa City.  Following a less than stellar 14-point win over Missouri St., the Hawkeyes beat rival Iowa St. in Ames.  An easy breeze win over Western Michigan set them up for the big rivalry game at Minnesota last week.  Iowa’s defense shut the Gophers down to retain Floyd of Rosedale, the big bronze pig trophy that goes to the Iowa-Minnesota winner.

 

The schedule seems to favor Iowa in the race for the division title.  The Hawkeyes get a week off after this game to prepare for Ohio St.  They get Northwestern and Michigan at home.  The season capper at Nebraska does not look as intimidating as it once did.  A win this week could propel Iowa to the top of the division.  6-2 could easily grab a piece of the division pie, and if Iowa wins this game, they are looking at 6-2 or better.

 

North Texas at Tulane

Go ahead and think in your head that this is obviously a big mistake to put this game in the “key game” category.  However, we have valid reasons.  Obviously, one team must win the Western Division of Conference USA.  Rice and Tulsa are facing off in Tulsa Saturday, and the winner of that game will be the titular leader of the division.  However, both the Owls and Golden Hurricane are paper tigers this year.  We believe a surprise team will cop the flag.  The winner of this game may just be that surprise team.

 

Neither team is overly talented, but both are well-coached.  We believe the Mean Green is a little better than the Green Wave, and the rest of the league might be green with envy when the winner of this game emerges to become the real leader like the winner of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary.

 

Ohio St. at Northwestern

This is a big trap game.  Northwestern is just as undefeated as Ohio St., but you cannot find a so-called expert that believes the Wildcats have a shot in this game.

 

While the Buckeyes had to face a tough Wisconsin team last week, NU had a bye week.  Coach Pat Fitzgerald has enjoyed an extra week to prepare for this game, and he knows Braxton Miller will be under center.  In our opinion, Ohio St. may be an easier team to prepare against with Miller at QB than with Kenny Guiton.  Miller may be the better overall athlete, but Guiton is the better dropback passer, and Northwestern may be better able to slow down the Buckeye running game without having to worry about getting burned by Guiton’s mad bomber ability.

 

Northwestern has a quality win over a so-so Syracuse team, a decent win at a weak Cal team and unconvincing wins over Western Michigan and Maine.  Their entire season is not riding on this contest, but a heart-breaking close loss could do more damage than a decisive loss.  Of course, a win bolts the Wildcats to the top of the division with a decent shot at grabbing part of a divisional title.

 

This Week’s PiRate Three Ratings

 

PiRate Regular

1

Oregon

134.0

2

Alabama

132.9

3

Stanford

128.5

4

Washington

122.8

5

Ole Miss

122.8

6

Ohio St.

122.0

7

Texas A&M

121.6

8

Baylor

121.5

9

Georgia

121.5

10

L S U

121.2

11

Clemson

119.8

12

Florida St.

119.2

13

South Carolina

118.8

14

Oklahoma

118.7

15

Oklahoma St.

118.4

16

U C L A

118.3

17

Louisville

118.3

18

Florida

118.3

19

Arizona St.

117.6

20

Miami

117.5

21

Arizona

117.5

22

Texas

116.5

23

Wisconsin

116.4

24

Missouri

115.7

25

Michigan St.

114.6

26

Oregon St.

114.2

27

T C U

113.4

28

Northwestern

113.3

29

Michigan

113.1

30

Notre Dame

113.1

31

Georgia Tech

112.4

32

Nebraska

112.0

33

Virginia Tech

111.6

34

Mississippi St.

111.1

35

U S C

110.8

36

Penn St.

110.6

37

B Y U

109.0

38

Kansas St.

108.9

39

Texas Tech

108.6

40

Vanderbilt

108.1

41

Auburn

107.1

42

Utah St.

106.6

43

Iowa

106.3

44

Utah

105.3

45

Cincinnati

104.7

46

Central Florida

104.5

47

Syracuse

104.2

48

Washington St.

103.6

49

Boise St.

103.5

50

North Carolina

103.1

51

Maryland

103.0

52

Indiana

102.9

53

Illinois

102.6

54

West Virginia

102.6

55

East Carolina

102.3

56

Fresno St.

102.1

57

Tennessee

101.9

58

Northern Illinois

101.5

59

Minnesota

101.2

60

Arkansas

100.7

61

Boston College

100.7

62

Pittsburgh

100.3

63

Ball St.

100.1

64

Bowling Green

100.0

65

Iowa St.

99.9

66

Toledo

99.7

67

Rutgers

99.5

68

Marshall

98.9

69

North Carolina St.

98.8

70

Kentucky

98.7

71

Duke

96.5

72

San Jose St.

96.3

73

California

96.2

74

Houston

95.9

75

Navy

95.4

76

Rice

95.0

77

Colorado St.

94.2

78

Louisiana–Lafayette

94.1

79

Virginia

93.7

80

North Texas

93.6

81

Wake Forest

93.3

82

S M U

93.0

83

Kansas

92.9

84

San Diego St.

92.8

85

Purdue

92.5

86

Ohio

92.1

87

Western Kentucky

92.1

88

Buffalo

91.9

89

Arkansas St.

91.9

90

Colorado

91.4

91

Tulsa

91.3

92

Wyoming

90.5

93

Memphis

89.9

94

Louisiana–Monroe

89.3

95

Kent St.

89.0

96

Connecticut

87.6

97

U T S A

87.4

98

South Florida

87.2

99

Nevada

86.9

100

U A B

86.8

101

Middle Tennessee

86.6

102

U N L V

86.3

103

South Alabama

86.0

104

Florida Atlantic

85.9

105

Army

85.4

106

Tulane

84.8

107

Texas St.

84.3

108

Hawaii

84.3

109

Troy

83.8

110

Temple

83.7

111

U T E P

83.2

112

Akron

83.0

113

Louisiana Tech

80.1

114

Central Michigan

79.5

115

New Mexico

78.6

116

Western Michigan

78.2

117

Eastern Michigan

77.7

118

Southern Miss.

77.6

119

Air Force

77.4

120

Miami (O)

75.8

121

New Mexico St.

75.0

122

Massachusetts

72.6

123

Idaho

71.1

124

Florida Int’l

66.0

125

Georgia St.

60.2

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

129.9

2

Alabama

126.6

3

Florida St.

122.2

4

Clemson

120.5

5

Ohio St.

119.8

6

L S U

119.8

7

Georgia

119.6

8

Stanford

119.3

9

Washington

118.7

10

Texas A&M

118.7

11

Arizona St.

118.6

12

Miami

118.2

13

Ole Miss

118.1

14

Louisville

116.9

15

Wisconsin

116.9

16

South Carolina

116.7

17

Florida

114.8

18

Oklahoma

114.7

19

Michigan St.

114.5

20

Penn St.

113.8

21

Baylor

112.9

22

Missouri

112.6

23

Arizona

112.4

24

Virginia Tech

112.3

25

U C L A

112.2

26

Georgia Tech

111.7

27

Michigan

111.2

28

Northwestern

110.9

29

T C U

109.8

30

Notre Dame

109.6

31

Maryland

109.5

32

Nebraska

109.0

33

Oklahoma St.

108.5

34

U S C

108.2

35

Mississippi St.

107.8

36

B Y U

107.8

37

Texas

107.0

38

Auburn

106.9

39

Texas Tech

106.8

40

Illinois

106.8

41

Central Florida

106.8

42

Indiana

106.4

43

Vanderbilt

106.2

44

Iowa

106.1

45

Oregon St.

105.8

46

Arkansas

105.6

47

Houston

105.4

48

Cincinnati

105.2

49

North Carolina

105.2

50

Utah

105.0

51

East Carolina

104.6

52

North Carolina St.

104.5

53

Washington St.

104.4

54

Utah St.

103.5

55

Rutgers

103.4

56

Ball St.

103.4

57

Marshall

103.2

58

Northern Illinois

102.4

59

Syracuse

102.3

60

Tennessee

101.3

61

Kansas St.

101.0

62

Toledo

100.9

63

Minnesota

100.8

64

Fresno St.

100.4

65

Bowling Green

100.2

66

Boston College

99.7

67

Pittsburgh

99.1

68

Kentucky

98.8

69

Rice

98.3

70

Boise St.

98.1

71

Navy

97.4

72

Memphis

97.0

73

Duke

96.5

74

Virginia

96.5

75

Wake Forest

96.0

76

Ohio

95.6

77

West Virginia

95.5

78

North Texas

95.4

79

Colorado

94.8

80

S M U

94.6

81

Colorado St.

94.6

82

Louisiana–Lafayette

94.2

83

Western Kentucky

93.9

84

Army

92.8

85

Wyoming

92.4

86

Buffalo

91.8

87

Kent St.

91.8

88

California

91.7

89

Middle Tennessee

91.7

90

Texas St.

91.7

91

San Jose St.

91.6

92

Iowa St.

90.4

93

San Diego St.

90.4

94

South Alabama

90.3

95

Nevada

90.3

96

Kansas

90.2

97

U T S A

89.7

98

U N L V

89.7

99

Purdue

89.4

100

Tulane

88.8

101

U A B

88.4

102

Louisiana–Monroe

88.4

103

U T E P

87.9

104

Arkansas St.

87.8

105

Tulsa

87.7

106

Akron

87.2

107

Florida Atlantic

86.3

108

Troy

84.9

109

Hawaii

84.6

110

New Mexico

84.0

111

Temple

83.6

112

Connecticut

83.4

113

Louisiana Tech

82.0

114

Eastern Michigan

81.9

115

Air Force

81.5

116

Central Michigan

81.4

117

Massachusetts

81.3

118

South Florida

80.6

119

Miami (O)

79.4

120

Western Michigan

79.2

121

New Mexico St.

78.4

122

Idaho

77.9

123

Southern Miss.

77.0

124

Georgia St.

69.4

125

Florida Int’l

68.2

 

PiRate Bias

1

Oregon

135.3

2

Alabama

134.8

3

Stanford

127.5

4

Washington

123.0

5

Ole Miss

123.0

6

Baylor

122.5

7

Ohio St.

122.2

8

Georgia

122.0

9

L S U

121.9

10

Texas A&M

121.2

11

Clemson

121.1

12

Florida St.

120.7

13

Louisville

120.3

14

Oklahoma

118.8

15

Oklahoma St.

118.6

16

South Carolina

118.2

17

Miami

118.1

18

Arizona St.

117.7

19

U C L A

117.2

20

Florida

117.1

21

Wisconsin

116.7

22

Arizona

116.1

23

Texas

115.2

24

Missouri

114.5

25

T C U

114.2

26

Northwestern

113.8

27

Michigan St.

112.7

28

Georgia Tech

112.7

29

Michigan

112.3

30

Oregon St.

112.2

31

Virginia Tech

111.6

32

Mississippi St.

111.3

33

Notre Dame

111.0

34

Nebraska

110.3

35

U S C

110.3

36

Penn St.

110.2

37

B Y U

109.6

38

Texas Tech

108.5

39

Utah St.

108.3

40

Vanderbilt

107.7

41

Kansas St.

107.5

42

Iowa

107.4

43

Auburn

106.2

44

Central Florida

105.7

45

Maryland

105.5

46

Utah

105.5

47

Cincinnati

105.1

48

Boise St.

105.0

49

Washington St.

104.5

50

East Carolina

103.9

51

Syracuse

103.6

52

Illinois

103.4

53

North Carolina

103.4

54

Indiana

102.8

55

Fresno St.

102.3

56

Northern Illinois

102.1

57

Ball St.

101.6

58

Boston College

101.4

59

West Virginia

101.3

60

Bowling Green

101.2

61

Marshall

101.0

62

Tennessee

100.7

63

Toledo

100.6

64

Minnesota

100.4

65

North Carolina St.

100.0

66

Rutgers

100.0

67

Pittsburgh

99.8

68

Arkansas

99.8

69

Iowa St.

98.7

70

Houston

97.6

71

Kentucky

96.9

72

San Jose St.

96.7

73

Rice

95.5

74

Navy

95.2

75

Duke

95.1

76

Colorado St.

95.1

77

California

94.5

78

North Texas

94.1

79

Virginia

93.9

80

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.5

81

Ohio

93.4

82

San Diego St.

93.1

83

Wake Forest

93.0

84

Western Kentucky

92.8

85

Wyoming

92.5

86

Buffalo

92.4

87

S M U

91.8

88

Arkansas St.

91.7

89

Kansas

91.6

90

Memphis

90.7

91

Purdue

89.9

92

Tulsa

89.6

93

Colorado

89.4

94

Kent St.

89.4

95

Louisiana–Monroe

89.1

96

Army

87.8

97

Connecticut

87.7

98

U T S A

87.5

99

South Alabama

87.0

100

U N L V

87.0

101

Nevada

86.9

102

Middle Tennessee

86.8

103

U A B

86.6

104

Florida Atlantic

86.6

105

South Florida

85.5

106

Texas St.

85.3

107

Tulane

85.0

108

Troy

85.0

109

Hawaii

85.0

110

Akron

83.4

111

U T E P

83.1

112

Temple

82.2

113

Louisiana Tech

79.2

114

Western Michigan

79.1

115

New Mexico

78.5

116

Central Michigan

78.4

117

Air Force

77.5

118

Eastern Michigan

77.1

119

Southern Miss.

77.1

120

New Mexico St.

75.1

121

Miami (O)

74.3

122

Massachusetts

72.8

123

Idaho

70.7

124

Florida Int’l

65.6

125

Georgia St.

61.6

 

Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

0-0

4-0

118.3

116.9

120.3

Cincinnati

0-0

3-1

104.7

105.2

105.1

Central Florida

0-0

3-1

104.5

106.8

105.7

Rutgers

0-0

3-1

99.5

103.4

100.0

Houston

1-0

4-0

95.9

105.4

97.6

S M U

0-0

1-3

93.0

94.6

91.8

Memphis

0-0

1-2

89.9

97.0

90.7

Connecticut

0-0

0-4

87.6

83.4

87.7

South Florida

0-0

0-4

87.2

80.6

85.5

Temple

0-1

0-4

83.7

83.6

82.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.4

97.7

96.7

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Clemson

2-0

4-0

119.8

120.5

121.1

Florida St.

2-0

4-0

119.2

122.2

120.7

Syracuse

0-0

2-2

104.2

102.3

103.6

Maryland

0-0

4-0

103.0

109.5

105.5

Boston College

1-1

2-2

100.7

99.7

101.4

North Carolina St.

0-1

3-1

98.8

104.5

100.0

Wake Forest

0-2

2-3

93.3

96.0

93.0

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

4-0

117.5

118.2

118.1

Georgia Tech

2-1

3-1

112.4

111.7

112.7

Virginia Tech

1-0

4-1

111.6

112.3

111.6

North Carolina

0-1

1-3

103.1

105.2

103.4

Pittsburgh

2-1

3-1

100.3

99.1

99.8

Duke

0-2

3-2

96.5

96.5

95.1

Virginia

0-1

2-2

93.7

96.5

93.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

0-0

3-0

121.5

112.9

122.5

Oklahoma

1-0

4-0

118.7

114.7

118.8

Oklahoma St.

0-1

3-1

118.4

108.5

118.6

Texas

1-0

2-2

116.5

107.0

115.2

T C U

0-1

2-2

113.4

109.8

114.2

Kansas St.

0-1

2-2

108.9

101.0

107.5

Texas Tech

1-0

4-0

108.6

106.8

108.5

West Virginia

1-1

3-2

102.6

95.5

101.3

Iowa St.

0-0

1-2

99.9

90.4

98.7

Kansas

0-0

2-1

92.9

90.2

91.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

1-0

5-0

122.0

119.8

122.2

Wisconsin

1-1

3-2

116.4

116.9

116.7

Penn St.

0-0

3-1

110.6

113.8

110.2

Indiana

0-0

2-2

102.9

106.4

102.8

Illinois

0-0

3-1

102.6

106.8

103.4

Purdue

0-1

1-4

92.5

89.4

89.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

0-0

3-1

114.6

114.5

112.7

Northwestern

0-0

4-0

113.3

110.9

113.8

Michigan

0-0

4-0

113.1

111.2

112.3

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

112.0

109.0

110.3

Iowa

1-0

4-1

106.3

106.1

107.4

Minnesota

0-1

4-1

101.2

100.8

100.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.8

108.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

1-0

3-1

102.3

104.6

103.9

Marshall

0-0

2-2

98.9

103.2

101.0

U A B

0-0

1-3

86.8

88.4

86.6

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-2

86.6

91.7

86.8

Florida Atlantic

0-3

1-4

85.9

86.3

86.6

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-4

77.6

77.0

77.1

Florida Int’l

0-0

0-4

66.0

68.2

65.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

1-0

2-2

95.0

98.3

95.5

North Texas

0-0

2-2

93.6

95.4

94.1

Tulsa

0-0

1-3

91.3

87.7

89.6

U T S A

1-0

2-3

87.4

89.7

87.5

Tulane

1-0

3-2

84.8

88.8

85.0

U T E P

0-1

1-3

83.2

87.9

83.1

Louisiana Tech

0-1

1-4

80.1

82.0

79.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.1

89.2

87.3

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

3-2

113.1

109.6

111.0

B Y U

 

2-2

109.0

107.8

109.6

Navy

 

2-1

95.4

97.4

95.2

Army

 

2-3

85.4

92.8

87.8

New Mexico St.

 

0-5

75.0

78.4

75.1

Idaho

 

1-4

71.1

77.9

70.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

91.5

94.0

91.6

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

2-0

4-1

100.0

100.2

101.2

Ohio

0-0

3-1

92.1

95.6

93.4

Buffalo

0-0

2-2

91.9

91.8

92.4

Kent St.

1-1

2-3

89.0

91.8

89.4

Akron

0-1

1-4

83.0

87.2

83.4

Miami (O)

0-0

0-4

75.8

79.4

74.3

Massachusetts

0-0

0-4

72.6

81.3

72.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

0-0

4-0

101.5

102.4

102.1

Ball St.

2-0

4-1

100.1

103.4

101.6

Toledo

1-1

2-3

99.7

100.9

100.6

Central Michigan

0-1

1-4

79.5

81.4

78.4

Western Michigan

0-1

0-5

78.2

79.2

79.1

Eastern Michigan

0-1

1-3

77.7

81.9

77.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

2-0

3-2

106.6

103.5

108.3

Boise St.

1-1

3-2

103.5

98.1

105.0

Colorado St.

0-0

2-3

94.2

94.6

95.1

Wyoming

1-0

3-2

90.5

92.4

92.5

New Mexico

0-1

1-3

78.6

84.0

78.5

Air Force

0-4

1-4

77.4

81.5

77.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

2-0

4-0

102.1

100.4

102.3

San Jose St.

0-1

1-3

96.3

91.6

96.7

San Diego St.

0-0

1-3

92.8

90.4

93.1

Nevada

2-0

3-2

86.9

90.3

86.9

U N L V

1-0

3-2

86.3

89.7

87.0

Hawaii

0-2

0-4

84.3

84.6

85.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.6

91.8

92.3

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

1-0

4-0

134.0

129.9

135.3

Stanford

2-0

4-0

128.5

119.3

127.5

Washington

1-0

4-0

122.8

118.7

123.0

Oregon St.

2-0

4-1

114.2

105.8

112.2

Washington St.

1-1

3-2

103.6

104.4

104.5

California

0-1

1-3

96.2

91.7

94.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

U C L A

0-0

3-0

118.3

112.2

117.2

Arizona St.

1-1

3-1

117.6

118.6

117.7

Arizona

0-1

3-1

117.5

112.4

116.1

U S C

0-2

3-2

110.8

108.2

110.3

Utah

0-1

3-1

105.3

105.0

105.5

Colorado

0-1

2-1

91.4

94.8

89.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.1

112.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

2-0

3-1

121.5

119.6

122.0

South Carolina

1-1

3-1

118.8

116.7

118.2

Florida

2-0

3-1

118.3

114.8

117.1

Missouri

0-0

4-0

115.7

112.6

114.5

Vanderbilt

0-2

3-2

108.1

106.2

107.7

Tennessee

0-1

3-2

101.9

101.3

100.7

Kentucky

0-1

1-3

98.7

98.8

96.9

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

2-0

4-0

132.9

126.6

134.8

Ole Miss

1-1

3-1

122.8

118.1

123.0

Texas A&M

1-1

4-1

121.6

118.7

121.2

L S U

1-1

4-1

121.2

119.8

121.9

Mississippi St.

0-1

2-2

111.1

107.8

111.3

Auburn

1-1

3-1

107.1

106.9

106.2

Arkansas

0-1

3-2

100.7

105.6

99.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.3

112.4

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

0-0

2-2

94.1

94.2

93.5

Western Kentucky

0-1

3-2

92.1

93.9

92.8

Arkansas St.

1-0

2-3

91.9

87.8

91.7

Louisiana–Monroe

0-0

2-3

89.3

88.4

89.1

South Alabama

1-0

2-2

86.0

90.3

87.0

Texas St.

0-0

3-1

84.3

91.7

85.3

Troy

0-1

2-3

83.8

84.9

85.0

Georgia St.

0-0

0-4

60.2

69.4

61.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.2

87.6

85.8

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

3-1

84.7

87.1

91.8

Old Dominion

 

3-2

83.8

84.6

90.8

Appalachian St.

 

1-3

76.7

75.6

83.8

Charlotte

 

3-2

58.0

62.6

65.1

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100      

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Date:

October 3-5, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Iowa St. Texas

-13.6

-13.6

-13.5

UL-Monroe Western Kentucky

-0.3

-3.0

-1.2

Utah U C L A

-10.0

-4.2

-8.7

Utah St. B Y U

-0.4

-2.3

0.7

San Diego St. Nevada

8.4

2.6

8.7

Navy Air Force

21.0

18.9

20.7

Temple Louisville

-32.6

-31.3

-36.1

Florida St. Maryland

19.2

15.7

18.2

Kansas Texas Tech

-12.7

-13.6

-13.9

Indiana Penn St.

-4.7

-4.4

-4.4

Nebraska Illinois

12.9

5.7

10.4

Virginia Ball St.

-3.4

-3.9

-4.7

Buffalo Eastern Michigan

16.7

12.4

17.8

Iowa Michigan St.

-5.3

-5.4

-2.3

S M U Rutgers

-3.5

-5.8

-5.2

Alabama Georgia St.

75.7

60.2

76.2

Virginia Tech North Carolina

11.5

10.1

11.2

Boston College Army

18.3

9.9

16.6

Miami (O) Central Michigan

-1.2

0.5

-1.6

Troy South Alabama

-0.2

-3.4

0.0

Marshall U T S A

14.5

16.5

16.5

Akron Ohio

-6.6

-5.9

-7.5

U A B Florida Atlantic

3.4

4.6

2.5

Toledo Western Michigan

24.5

24.7

24.5

Syracuse Clemson

-12.6

-15.2

-14.5

Tennessee Georgia

-16.6

-15.3

-18.3

Miami Georgia Tech

8.1

9.5

8.4

Michigan Minnesota

14.9

13.4

14.9

Oklahoma St. Kansas St.

12.5

10.5

14.1

Wake Forest North Carolina St.

-3.5

-6.5

-5.0

Bowling Green Massachusetts

29.9

21.4

30.9

Tulsa Rice

-0.7

-7.6

-2.9

Kent St. Northern Illinois

-10.0

-8.1

10.2

Middle Tennessee East Carolina

-13.2

-10.4

-14.6

Tulane North Texas

-6.3

-4.1

-6.6

California Washington St.

-4.4

-9.7

-7.0

Southern Miss. Florida Int’l

14.1

11.3

14.0

Memphis Central Florida

-11.6

-6.8

-12.0

Idaho Fresno St.

-28.5

-20.0

-29.1

Colorado Oregon

-39.6

-32.1

-42.9

Mississippi St. L S U

-7.1

-9.0

-7.6

Oklahoma T C U

8.3

7.9

7.6

Florida Arkansas

20.6

12.2

20.3

Auburn Ole Miss

-12.7

-8.2

-13.8

South Florida Cincinnati

-14.5

-21.6

-16.6

New Mexico New Mexico St.

5.6

7.6

5.4

UL-Lafayette Texas St.

12.3

5.0

10.2

South Carolina Kentucky

23.1

20.9

24.3

Notre Dame (a) Arizona St.

-4.5

-9.0

-6.7

Vanderbilt Missouri

-5.1

-3.9

-4.3

U T E P Louisiana Tech

5.6

8.4

6.4

Northwestern Ohio St.

-5.7

-5.9

-5.4

Baylor West Virginia

21.9

20.4

24.2

Stanford Washington

8.7

3.6

7.5

Hawaii San Jose St.

-8.0

-3.0

-7.7

   

 

 

 

(a) Game Played in Arlington, TX

 

 

 

Teams Transitioning to FBS

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion Liberty

10.8

9.0

10.8

Charlotte Gardner-Webb

-10.5

-10.1

-10.4

Samford Georgia Southern

-1.2

0.7

-1.6

Citadel Appalachian St.

4.5

3.2

4.9

 

 

Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

U N L V

vs.

U S C

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Fresno St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

Boise St.

vs.

Ohio

New Orleans

Texas St.

vs.

Tulsa

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

(UL-Lafayette)

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

(Notre Dame)

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Illinois

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

(Washington St.)

Military Bowl

Boston College

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Northwestern

vs.

T C U

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Oregon St.

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Kansas St.

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina St.

Russell Athletic

Central Florida

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas Tech

vs.

Wisconsin

Armed Forces

Wyoming

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Oklahoma St.

vs.

U C L A

Holiday

Texas

vs.

Washington

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

(West Virginia)

vs.

Pittsburgh

Sun

Maryland

vs.

Arizona

Liberty

Vanderbilt

vs.

East Carolina

Chick-fil-A

Virginia Tech

vs.

Florida

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Michigan St.

Gator

Nebraska

vs.

Missouri

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Iowa

Capital One

Michigan

vs.

Texas A&M

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Oklahoma

vs.

Northern Illinois

Sugar

Georgia

vs.

Florida St.

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Clemson

vs.

Louisville

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Auburn

GoDaddy.com

Western Kentucky

vs.

Bowling Green

BCS Championship

Oregon

vs.

Alabama

 

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