The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 24, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–September 26-28, 2013

Interesting Games For Week 5

 

Thursday Night:

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Usually when a spread option team that relies on the veer as its primary weapon breaks in a new starting quarterback, its offense suffers and takes several games to get in synch.  Vad Lee is not your typical new starter, as he receive a lot of playing time last year in Coach Paul Johnson’s option attack.  With Lee as the chief engineer, Tech’s offensive production has looked much like that of Oklahoma in the Barry Switzer days.  The Jackets average 345 rushing yards per game at a 5.7 yard per attempt clip, and they gain an average of 10.7 yards per passing attempt.  These are numbers of an offense that can score on anybody.  Now, add to that a much improved defense that yields just 275 yards per game, and you have a key contender in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

Virginia Tech has been quite the disappointment so far, even though the Hokies are 3-1 like they were expected to be after four games.  This is not the program it was two years ago, and the Va. Tech offense is in bad need of a tune-up.  The defense is still credible, but it will need an effort much like the 2009 defense if the Hokies are to return to Blacksburg with a 4-1 record.

Saturday

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

The Crimson Tide were as flat as Western Nebraska last week, as they slept walked through the Colorado St. game.  Ole Miss had an extra week to prepare for this game after the mild upset at Texas.

Last year, Ole Miss looked like they belonged in this game, even though Alabama won 33-14.  The Rebel defense limited ‘Bama’s production, but Alabama stopped the Rebel offense.  This year, we do not believe The Crimson Tide can stop the Ole Miss attack, because there are too many weapons.  Ole Miss will not put up 42 points like Johnny Football and his machine did two weeks ago, but then again, the Rebels will hold Alabama well below 49.

We may be totally off base here, but we see this one that will not be decided until the waning minutes of the game.  Ole Miss has a shot at the upset that will put them back on the national title contention map.  Check below to see how the PiRate Ratings call this game.  Our ratings do not always reflect how we feel about a game, since the ratings are chiefly mechanical and not influenced by our personal beliefs.

Washington St. vs. Stanford (game to be played in Seattle)

Stanford looked like a Rose Bowl team for two quarters, a Holiday Bowl team for one quarter, and Cal for one quarter last week against Arizona St.,  The Cardinal have yet to play 60 minutes of quality football.  Can they play 30 minutes of quality football, 15 minutes of okay football, and 15 minutes of mediocre football and pull out a Pac-12 win this week against an up and coming Cougar team?

This game will be played in Seattle, not Pullman, so Washington St. will not enjoy its usual home field advantage.  Still, the much-improved Cougars will play tough for four quarters.  This one could get interesting if WSU can keep it close in the first half.  The Pac-12 North rates a little ahead of the SEC West this week, so this game should definitely be on your watch list.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

These former Southwest Conference rivals square off in an important game in Fayetteville, and while it may not have division title implications, it is a key game for both teams.  How will the Aggies stop the Wisconsin-style ground game that Bret Bielema has brought to the SEC?  If Johnny Manziel doesn’t have the football, he cannot do his magic.  Had Arkansas beaten Rutgers last week, this game would have meant a lot more, but it still means a lot in the SEC.  An Arkansas victory gives the Razorbacks a 90-95% probability of getting bowl eligible this year.  An A&M victory keeps the Aggies in contention for a Sugar Bowl or other BCS Bowl bid.

Georgia vs. LSU

This one is our top game of the week.  The winner stays in contention for a National Championship.  The loser might be looking at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl for its ceiling.

The two quarterbacks in this game are as talented as the lower-tiered NFL starters.  Georgia’s Aaron Murray may be the better college QB, but LSU’s Zach Mettenberger may eventually be the better NFL QB.  New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has been an outstanding teacher, and the LSU passing game looks like the equal of its SEC brethren.  Add one of the top rushing attacks, and you have an offense that will light up the scoreboard.

Georgia is very similar to the Tigers, except the Bulldogs throw the ball a little better and are not as strong running the ball.

Both teams have room to improve on the defensive side, and that is what makes this game so interesting.  Which defense will step up and come up with enough big plays to hold the other team to about 30 points?  That team will be the winner.

Washington vs. Arizona

One of these teams will be an impressive 4-0 on Sunday morning.  Seldom since the 1970’s has there been a game between two major conference teams where both foes average better than 300 rushing yards per game.  This one does.  Of course, UW also averages more than 300 passing yards per game and looks like a team capable of beating Stanford and becoming the key competition to Oregon in the Pac-12 North.

Arizona is more one-dimensional in its zone-read offense.  The passing game will probably not beat a quality opponent if the running game is slowed.

What makes us think UW has the potential to compete with Oregon and Stanford is our belief that the Huskies still have room to improve on offense from A+ to A++.  Once All-American tight end Austin Seferrian-Jenkins is fully back to form after beginning the season under suspension, then the Huskies’ offense might be as potent as the Ducks.

If Arizona pulls off the upset, then the Wildcats will soar into the top 10 in the power ratings.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

The Irish now must consider this like a key conference game if they are to remain in contention for a BCS Bowl invitation.  They will get that invitation at 10-2, but 9-3 could find Notre Dame looking at a minor bowl.  With Arizona St., USC, and Stanford remaining on the schedule along with tricky games against Navy and at Pittsburgh, The Fighting Irish have a tough mountain to climb to get to 10-2.  A loss here Saturday leaves them no room for error the rest of the way.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has moaned about not getting enough respect.  Wins over Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, and Tulsa are not respect-earning victories.  TCU, Texas, and Kansas St. are no longer respect-earning victories.  That leaves Oklahoma St. and this game for OU to get the esteem they believe they should have.  If the Sooners drop what to OU fans is a must-win game, then Stoops will feel his seat warming up.

Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin

The interest in this game is two-fold.  First, the winner of this game is more than likely your Leaders’ Division Champion.  With Penn St. ineligible, and the rest of the division substandard to these two rivals, the winner of this game will have to lose twice in the league to fall below the loser.

The secondary interest in this game is the Buckeye quarterback situation.  Does Coach Urban Meyer go with Heisman Trophy contender Braxton Miller, or does he stick with the rifle-armed Kenny Guiton who merely guides OSU on touchdown drives more like the Buckeyes hail from Eugene, Oregon.

He won’t ask our opinion, but if it were up to us, we would stick with the hot hand.  It is similar to when Wally Pipp was injured for the 1925 Yankees.  The backup, some kid named Gehrig, immediately proved that he was the best first baseman in the Majors.  Guiton looks like the best passer in the Big Ten and one of the top in the nation.  Putting Miller in as starter could only damage the Buckeye offense.  He will be rusty, and OSU can ill-afford to stumble for two or three series while hoping he gets untracked.  Miller can easily be inserted into the game for a series here and there after Guiton has worked his magic once again.

It is our belief that the only way Ohio St. can lose this game is if Miller starts and is off his game.  A typical showing from Guiton makes the Buckeyes too strong for any Big Ten opponent.

This Week’s PiRate Power Rankings

PiRate Regular

1

Oregon

133.9

2

Alabama

130.5

3

Stanford

124.9

4

Ole Miss

124.9

5

Oklahoma St.

122.6

6

Ohio St.

122.2

7

Texas A&M

122.1

8

Baylor

121.5

9

L S U

121.3

10

Georgia

121.2

11

Washington

120.4

12

South Carolina

119.9

13

Arizona

119.5

14

Florida St.

119.0

15

Louisville

118.3

16

U C L A

118.3

17

Florida

118.0

18

Texas

116.5

19

Clemson

116.4

20

Missouri

116.2

21

Wisconsin

116.2

22

Arizona St.

116.2

23

Notre Dame

115.7

24

Oklahoma

115.6

25

Miami

115.4

26

Georgia Tech

114.7

27

Michigan St.

114.6

28

Oregon St.

113.4

29

Northwestern

113.3

30

Michigan

113.1

31

T C U

113.1

32

U S C

112.5

33

Nebraska

112.0

34

Mississippi St.

111.1

35

Penn St.

110.6

36

Kansas St.

108.9

37

Virginia Tech

108.8

38

Texas Tech

108.6

39

B Y U

108.5

40

Vanderbilt

107.3

41

Auburn

107.1

42

North Carolina

106.7

43

Washington St.

106.2

44

Utah

105.3

45

Cincinnati

104.7

46

Tennessee

104.5

47

Syracuse

104.2

48

Minnesota

103.8

49

Utah St.

103.8

50

Central Florida

103.4

51

Iowa

103.3

52

Maryland

103.0

53

Fresno St.

103.0

54

Indiana

102.9

55

Boise St.

100.8

56

Toledo

100.6

57

Arkansas

100.2

58

Boston College

100.2

59

Pittsburgh

99.9

60

Bowling Green

99.9

61

Illinois

99.8

62

Rutgers

99.5

63

San Jose St.

99.4

64

Kentucky

99.0

65

Marshall

98.9

66

Ball St.

98.9

67

West Virginia

98.4

68

East Carolina

98.2

69

Iowa St.

98.1

70

Northern Illinois

97.8

71

Navy

97.6

72

Duke

97.1

73

North Carolina St.

97.0

74

Wake Forest

97.0

75

California

96.3

76

Rice

96.0

77

Purdue

95.7

78

Virginia

94.1

79

Louisiana–Monroe

94.1

80

San Diego St.

93.8

81

Wyoming

93.6

82

North Texas

93.6

83

Tulsa

93.6

84

Colorado St.

93.5

85

S M U

93.3

86

Houston

93.0

87

Kansas

92.9

88

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.6

89

Ohio

92.1

90

Colorado

92.0

91

Arkansas St.

91.4

92

Connecticut

90.8

93

U T S A

90.0

94

Memphis

89.9

95

Western Kentucky

89.9

96

Buffalo

89.7

97

South Florida

89.3

98

Nevada

89.1

99

U A B

87.6

100

Kent St.

87.3

101

Middle Tennessee

87.1

102

Temple

86.7

103

U N L V

85.6

104

Florida Atlantic

85.2

105

U T E P

83.9

106

Army

83.8

107

Hawaii

83.4

108

Troy

83.2

109

Louisiana Tech

83.2

110

Akron

83.1

111

South Alabama

82.9

112

Tulane

82.0

113

Texas St.

81.7

114

Central Michigan

81.6

115

Southern Miss.

81.3

116

Western Michigan

79.9

117

New Mexico

79.3

118

Miami (O)

78.9

119

Eastern Michigan

77.7

120

Air Force

75.7

121

New Mexico St.

74.0

122

Massachusetts

72.6

123

Idaho

69.1

124

Florida Int’l

66.0

125

Georgia St.

60.2

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

129.8

2

Alabama

123.9

3

Florida St.

122.7

4

L S U

120.5

5

Ole Miss

120.5

6

Ohio St.

119.5

7

Georgia

118.7

8

Texas A&M

118.1

9

South Carolina

117.9

10

Arizona St.

117.3

11

Wisconsin

117.2

12

Louisville

116.9

13

Miami

116.5

14

Washington

116.1

15

Clemson

116.0

16

Stanford

116.0

17

Arizona

114.6

18

Michigan St.

114.5

19

Georgia Tech

114.3

20

Florida

114.0

21

Penn St.

113.8

22

Missouri

113.5

23

Baylor

112.9

24

Oklahoma St.

112.6

25

Notre Dame

112.4

26

U C L A

112.2

27

Oklahoma

111.4

28

Michigan

111.2

29

Northwestern

110.9

30

U S C

109.8

31

Maryland

109.5

32

Virginia Tech

109.2

33

North Carolina

109.0

34

Nebraska

109.0

35

Mississippi St.

107.8

36

T C U

107.4

37

Texas

107.0

38

Auburn

106.9

39

Texas Tech

106.8

40

Washington St.

106.7

41

B Y U

106.6

42

Indiana

106.4

43

Arkansas

106.2

44

Central Florida

105.6

45

Cincinnati

105.2

46

Utah

105.0

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Minnesota

103.8

49

Illinois

103.7

50

Tennessee

103.7

51

Rutgers

103.4

52

Marshall

103.2

53

Oregon St.

102.9

54

Houston

102.7

55

North Carolina St.

102.7

56

Iowa

102.7

57

Ball St.

102.5

58

Syracuse

102.3

59

Fresno St.

101.5

60

Toledo

101.5

61

Kansas St.

101.0

62

Utah St.

100.9

63

Wake Forest

100.8

64

East Carolina

100.3

65

Rice

100.1

66

Navy

99.8

67

Bowling Green

99.7

68

Kentucky

99.6

69

Northern Illinois

99.0

70

Boston College

98.5

71

Pittsburgh

98.1

72

Virginia

97.5

73

Colorado

97.5

74

Duke

97.5

75

S M U

97.0

76

Memphis

97.0

77

Ohio

95.6

78

Boise St.

95.4

79

North Texas

95.4

80

Wyoming

95.3

81

San Jose St.

94.5

82

Louisiana–Monroe

94.2

83

Colorado St.

93.0

84

Middle Tennessee

92.9

85

Nevada

92.4

86

Purdue

92.3

87

U T S A

92.1

88

California

91.8

89

Western Kentucky

91.5

90

West Virginia

91.4

91

Tulsa

90.6

92

Army

90.6

93

Louisiana–Lafayette

90.3

94

Kent St.

90.3

95

Kansas

90.2

96

San Diego St.

90.1

97

Buffalo

90.0

98

U A B

89.7

99

U T E P

89.5

100

Texas St.

88.3

101

U N L V

88.2

102

Iowa St.

88.0

103

Akron

87.7

104

South Alabama

87.4

105

Tulane

87.4

106

Arkansas St.

86.9

107

Connecticut

86.2

108

New Mexico

85.5

109

Temple

85.1

110

Florida Atlantic

84.8

111

Louisiana Tech

84.7

112

Troy

83.9

113

Central Michigan

83.5

114

Hawaii

83.5

115

Miami (O)

82.8

116

South Florida

82.3

117

Eastern Michigan

81.9

118

Massachusetts

81.3

119

Southern Miss.

80.7

120

Western Michigan

80.7

121

Air Force

79.9

122

New Mexico St.

78.7

123

Idaho

77.4

124

Georgia St.

69.4

125

Florida Int’l

68.2

PiRate Bias

1

Oregon

135.5

2

Alabama

131.3

3

Ole Miss

125.2

4

Stanford

123.8

5

Oklahoma St.

123.4

6

Ohio St.

122.5

7

Baylor

122.5

8

L S U

122.3

9

Texas A&M

122.2

10

Washington

121.4

11

Georgia

121.4

12

Florida St.

120.9

13

Louisville

120.3

14

South Carolina

119.6

15

Arizona

118.3

16

Clemson

117.3

17

U C L A

117.2

18

Florida

116.5

19

Wisconsin

116.4

20

Arizona St.

116.0

21

Miami

115.6

22

Georgia Tech

115.6

23

Oklahoma

115.6

24

Missouri

115.5

25

Texas

115.2

26

Northwestern

113.8

27

Notre Dame

113.7

28

T C U

113.3

29

Michigan St.

112.7

30

Michigan

112.3

31

U S C

112.3

32

Mississippi St.

111.3

33

Oregon St.

111.3

34

Nebraska

110.3

35

Penn St.

110.2

36

B Y U

108.9

37

Texas Tech

108.5

38

Virginia Tech

108.2

39

Kansas St.

107.5

40

North Carolina

107.3

41

Washington St.

107.2

42

Vanderbilt

106.5

43

Auburn

106.2

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Maryland

105.5

46

Utah

105.5

47

Cincinnati

105.1

48

Central Florida

104.3

49

Iowa

104.2

50

Fresno St.

103.7

51

Syracuse

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.3

53

Minnesota

103.2

54

Indiana

102.8

55

Boise St.

101.8

56

Toledo

101.7

57

Bowling Green

101.1

58

Marshall

101.0

59

Boston College

100.5

60

Illinois

100.4

61

Ball St.

100.2

62

Rutgers

100.0

63

East Carolina

99.5

64

San Jose St.

99.5

65

Pittsburgh

99.3

66

Arkansas

98.8

67

Northern Illinois

98.5

68

North Carolina St.

98.0

69

Navy

97.7

70

Kentucky

97.5

71

Rice

97.1

72

Wake Forest

97.1

73

West Virginia

96.5

74

Duke

96.2

75

Iowa St.

96.2

76

Wyoming

96.0

77

Houston

94.5

78

Virginia

94.4

79

California

94.3

80

San Diego St.

94.3

81

Colorado St.

94.2

82

North Texas

94.1

83

Louisiana–Monroe

93.5

84

Ohio

93.4

85

Purdue

93.0

86

S M U

92.7

87

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.7

88

Tulsa

92.6

89

Kansas

91.6

90

Connecticut

91.3

91

Memphis

90.7

92

Arkansas St.

90.7

93

U T S A

90.3

94

Western Kentucky

90.3

95

Colorado

90.1

96

Buffalo

89.8

97

Nevada

89.4

98

South Florida

88.0

99

U A B

87.8

100

Kent St.

87.6

101

Middle Tennessee

87.5

102

U N L V

86.0

103

Temple

85.4

104

Florida Atlantic

85.3

105

Army

84.9

106

U T E P

84.0

107

Troy

83.9

108

South Alabama

83.9

109

Hawaii

83.6

110

Akron

83.5

111

Louisiana Tech

82.6

112

Tulane

81.9

113

Texas St.

81.3

114

Southern Miss.

81.3

115

Western Michigan

80.9

116

Central Michigan

80.7

117

New Mexico

79.5

118

Miami (O)

77.6

119

Eastern Michigan

77.1

120

Air Force

75.5

121

New Mexico St.

73.9

122

Massachusetts

72.8

123

Idaho

68.5

124

Florida Int’l

65.6

125

Georgia St.

61.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

0-0

4-0

118.3

116.9

120.3

Cincinnati

0-0

3-1

104.7

105.2

105.1

Central Florida

0-0

3-0

103.4

105.6

104.3

Rutgers

0-0

3-1

99.5

103.4

100.0

S M U

0-0

1-2

93.3

97.0

92.7

Houston

1-0

3-0

93.0

102.7

94.5

Connecticut

0-0

0-3

90.8

86.2

91.3

Memphis

0-0

1-2

89.9

97.0

90.7

South Florida

0-0

0-3

89.3

82.3

88.0

Temple

0-1

0-3

86.7

85.1

85.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.1

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

1-0

3-0

119.0

122.7

120.9

Clemson

1-0

3-0

116.4

116.0

117.3

Syracuse

0-0

2-2

104.2

102.3

103.6

Maryland

0-0

4-0

103.0

109.5

105.5

Boston College

1-0

2-1

100.2

98.5

100.5

North Carolina St.

0-1

2-1

97.0

102.7

98.0

Wake Forest

0-1

2-2

97.0

100.8

97.1

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

3-0

115.4

116.5

115.6

Georgia Tech

2-0

3-0

114.7

114.3

115.6

Virginia Tech

0-0

3-1

108.8

109.2

108.2

North Carolina

0-1

1-2

106.7

109.0

107.3

Pittsburgh

1-1

2-1

99.9

98.1

99.3

Duke

0-2

2-2

97.1

97.5

96.2

Virginia

0-0

2-1

94.1

97.5

94.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.8

105.7

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oklahoma St.

0-0

3-0

122.6

112.6

123.4

Baylor

0-0

3-0

121.5

112.9

122.5

Texas

1-0

2-2

116.5

107.0

115.2

Oklahoma

1-0

3-0

115.6

111.4

115.6

T C U

0-1

1-2

113.1

107.4

113.3

Kansas St.

0-1

2-2

108.9

101.0

107.5

Texas Tech

1-0

4-0

108.6

106.8

108.5

West Virginia

0-1

2-2

98.4

91.4

96.5

Iowa St.

0-0

0-2

98.1

88.0

96.2

Kansas

0-0

2-1

92.9

90.2

91.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.6

102.9

109.0

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

0-0

4-0

122.2

119.5

122.5

Wisconsin

1-0

3-1

116.2

117.2

116.4

Penn St.

0-0

3-1

110.6

113.8

110.2

Indiana

0-0

2-2

102.9

106.4

102.8

Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.8

103.7

100.4

Purdue

0-1

1-3

95.7

92.3

93.0

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

0-0

3-1

114.6

114.5

112.7

Northwestern

0-0

4-0

113.3

110.9

113.8

Michigan

0-0

4-0

113.1

111.2

112.3

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

112.0

109.0

110.3

Minnesota

0-0

4-0

103.8

103.8

103.2

Iowa

0-0

3-1

103.3

102.7

104.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.8

108.5

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Marshall

0-0

2-2

98.9

103.2

101.0

East Carolina

1-0

2-1

98.2

100.3

99.5

U A B

0-0

1-2

87.6

89.7

87.8

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-1

87.1

92.9

87.5

Florida Atlantic

0-2

1-3

85.2

84.8

85.3

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-3

81.3

80.7

81.3

Florida Int’l

0-0

0-4

66.0

68.2

65.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

0-0

1-2

96.0

100.1

97.1

North Texas

0-0

2-2

93.6

95.4

94.1

Tulsa

0-0

1-2

93.6

90.6

92.6

U T S A

1-0

2-2

90.0

92.1

90.3

U T E P

0-1

1-2

83.9

89.5

84.0

Louisiana Tech

0-1

1-3

83.2

84.7

82.6

Tulane

1-0

2-2

82.0

87.4

81.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.6

90.0

87.9

     

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

3-1

115.7

112.4

113.7

B Y U

 

1-2

108.5

106.6

108.9

Navy

 

2-0

97.6

99.8

97.7

Army

 

1-3

83.8

90.6

84.9

New Mexico St.

 

0-4

74.0

78.7

73.9

Idaho

 

0-4

69.1

77.4

68.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

91.5

94.3

91.3

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

1-0

3-1

99.9

99.7

101.1

Ohio

0-0

3-1

92.1

95.6

93.4

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

89.7

90.0

89.8

Kent St.

0-1

1-3

87.3

90.3

87.6

Akron

0-0

1-3

83.1

87.7

83.5

Miami (O)

0-0

0-3

78.9

82.8

77.6

Massachusetts

0-0

0-4

72.6

81.3

72.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

1-0

2-2

100.6

101.5

101.7

Ball St.

1-0

3-1

98.9

102.5

100.2

Northern Illinois

0-0

3-0

97.8

99.0

98.5

Central Michigan

0-1

1-3

81.6

83.5

80.7

Western Michigan

0-0

0-4

79.9

80.7

80.9

Eastern Michigan

0-1

1-3

77.7

81.9

77.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.1

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

1-0

2-2

103.8

100.9

105.8

Boise St.

1-1

2-2

100.8

95.4

101.8

Wyoming

1-0

3-1

93.6

95.3

96.0

Colorado St.

0-0

1-3

93.5

93.0

94.2

New Mexico

0-0

1-2

79.3

85.5

79.5

Air Force

0-3

1-3

75.7

79.9

75.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

1-0

3-0

103.0

101.5

103.7

San Jose St.

0-0

1-2

99.4

94.5

99.5

San Diego St.

0-0

0-3

93.8

90.1

94.3

Nevada

1-0

2-2

89.1

92.4

89.4

U N L V

0-0

2-2

85.6

88.2

86.0

Hawaii

0-1

0-3

83.4

83.5

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.8

91.7

92.4

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

0-0

3-0

133.9

129.8

135.5

Stanford

1-0

3-0

124.9

116.0

123.8

Washington

0-0

3-0

120.4

116.1

121.4

Oregon St.

1-0

3-1

113.4

102.9

111.3

Washington St.

1-0

3-1

106.2

106.7

107.2

California

0-0

1-2

96.3

91.8

94.3

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

0-0

3-0

119.5

114.6

118.3

U C L A

0-0

3-0

118.3

112.2

117.2

Arizona St.

0-1

2-1

116.2

117.3

116.0

U S C

0-1

3-1

112.5

109.8

112.3

Utah

0-1

3-1

105.3

105.0

105.5

Colorado

0-0

2-0

92.0

97.5

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.2

110.0

112.7

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

1-0

2-1

121.2

118.7

121.4

South Carolina

1-1

2-1

119.9

117.9

119.6

Florida

1-0

2-1

118.0

114.0

116.5

Missouri

0-0

3-0

116.2

113.5

115.5

Vanderbilt

0-2

2-2

107.3

104.9

106.5

Tennessee

0-1

2-2

104.5

103.7

103.3

Kentucky

0-0

1-2

99.0

99.6

97.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

1-0

3-0

130.5

123.9

131.3

Ole Miss

1-0

3-0

124.9

120.5

125.2

Texas A&M

0-1

3-1

122.1

118.1

122.2

L S U

1-0

4-0

121.3

120.5

122.3

Mississippi St.

0-1

2-2

111.1

107.8

111.3

Auburn

1-1

3-1

107.1

106.9

106.2

Arkansas

0-0

3-1

100.2

106.2

98.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.5

112.6

114.1

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

0-0

2-2

94.1

94.2

93.5

Louisiana–Monroe

0-0

2-2

92.6

90.3

92.7

Arkansas St.

1-0

2-2

91.4

86.9

90.7

Western Kentucky

0-1

2-2

89.9

91.5

90.3

Troy

0-1

2-2

83.2

83.9

83.9

South Alabama

1-0

2-1

82.9

87.4

83.9

Texas St.

0-0

2-1

81.7

88.3

81.3

Georgia St.

0-0

0-4

60.2

69.4

61.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.5

86.5

84.7

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

2-1

85.9

88.3

93.0

Old Dominion

 

2-2

81.0

81.8

88.0

Appalachian St.

 

1-2

79.1

77.8

86.2

Charlotte

 

2-2

57.0

61.6

64.1

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Date:

September 26-28, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech Virginia Tech

8.9

8.1

10.4

Tulsa Iowa St.

-1.5

5.6

-0.6

B Y U Middle Tennessee

25.4

17.7

25.4

San Jose St. Utah St.

-1.4

-3.4

-3.3

Alabama Ole Miss

8.6

6.4

9.1

Arizona St. U S C

6.7

10.5

6.7

Arkansas Texas A&M

-18.9

-8.9

-20.4

Ball St. Toledo

0.8

3.5

1.0

Boise St. Southern Miss.

23.0

18.2

24.0

Boston College Florida St.

-15.8

-21.2

-17.4

Bowling Green Akron

19.3

14.5

20.1

Buffalo Connecticut

1.4

6.3

1.0

Central Florida South Carolina

-13.5

-9.3

-12.3

Clemson Wake Forest

22.4

18.2

23.2

Colorado St. U T E P

12.6

6.5

13.2

Duke Troy

16.9

16.6

15.3

Georgia L S U

2.9

1.2

2.1

Hawaii Fresno St.

-15.6

-14.0

-16.1

Idaho Temple

-14.6

-4.7

-13.9

Illinois Miami (O)

23.9

23.9

25.8

Kentucky Florida

-16.0

-11.4

-16.0

Louisiana Tech (a) Army

-0.6

-5.9

-2.3

Minnesota Iowa

3.5

4.1

2.0

Missouri Arkansas St.

27.8

29.6

27.8

Nevada Air Force

16.4

15.5

16.9

New Mexico U N L V

-3.8

-0.2

-4.0

New Mexico St. San Diego St.

-17.3

-8.9

-17.9

North Carolina East Carolina

11.5

11.7

10.8

North Carolina St. Central Michigan

18.4

22.2

20.3

Notre Dame Oklahoma

3.1

4.0

1.1

Ohio St. Wisconsin

9.0

5.3

9.1

Oregon California

40.6

41.0

44.2

Oregon St. Colorado

24.4

8.4

24.2

Pittsburgh Virginia

8.8

3.6

7.9

Purdue Northern Illinois

0.9

-3.7

-2.5

Rice Florida Atlantic

13.3

17.8

14.3

South Florida Miami (Fl)

-24.1

-32.2

-25.6

T C U S M U

21.8

12.4

22.6

Tennessee South Alabama

24.6

19.3

22.4

Texas St. Wyoming

-9.4

-4.5

-12.2

U T S A Houston

-1.0

-8.6

-2.2

UL-Monroe Tulane

13.1

5.4

13.3

Vanderbilt U A B

22.2

17.7

21.2

Washington Arizona

3.9

4.5

6.1

Washington St. (b) Stanford

-16.7

-7.3

-14.6

West Virginia Oklahoma St.

-21.2

-18.2

-23.9

Western Kentucky Navy

-5.2

-5.8

-4.9

Western Michigan Kent St.

-4.9

-7.1

-4.2

   

 

 

 

(a) Neutral Site Game at Dallas

 

 

 

(b) Game Played in Seattle

 

 

 

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Wyoming

vs.

Washington St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

(U T S A)

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Rice

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

(Arkansas St.)

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

(Ohio)

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Bowling Green

vs.

Illinois

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

(Oregon St.)

Military Bowl

Pittsburgh

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Nebraska

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

U S C

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

(Notre Dame)

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Central Florida

vs.

Georgia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Northwestern

Armed Forces

San Jose St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

North Carolina St.

vs.

Florida

Alamo

Baylor

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Washington

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

(Ball St.)

vs.

Virginia Tech

Sun

Maryland

vs.

Arizona

Liberty

Mississippi St.

vs.

Tulsa

Chick-fil-A

Miami

vs.

South Carolina

Heart Of Dallas

Middle Tennessee

vs.

Iowa

Gator

Michigan St.

vs.

Missouri

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Georgia

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

U C L A

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

L S U

vs.

Clemson

Cotton

Ole Miss

vs.

Oklahoma

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Louisville

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Auburn

GoDaddy.com

Texas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Oregon

vs.

Alabama

Coming Up

Wednesday—New NFL PiRate Ratings and Spreads for Week 4

Thursday—PiRate Picks for College Week 5 & NFL Week 4

 

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