The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 22, 2013

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

 

Once thought a dead league, the Big 12 received a reprieve and has thrived these last two years.  The league produced a Heisman Trophy winner in 2011, and placed nine of its ten members in bowls last year.  In 2013, it could produce a National Championship Game participant.

 

This league remains stable this year after the departures of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M, and the arrivals of TCU and West Virginia in the last two seasons.  The nine-game conference schedule guarantees that all two-team ties are easily broken without having to use several tiebreakers.

 

Coach Mack Brown welcomes back to Texas the most experience squad he’s ever fielded in Austin.  The Longhorns had to rebuild for a couple of years, but they are poised to go on a big run this year with 19 starters returning to the first team offense and defense.  The Longhorns will be a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball.  Even though their defense might give up 24 points per game, the offense should average more than 40 and outscore every opponent on the regular season schedule.

 

Three years in a row:  That’s the current streak in Stillwater, Oklahoma, for Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys.  OSU has averaged in excess of 40 points per game three years running (and passing), and the pokes should make it four in a row with the return of quarterback Clint Chelf and most of his key receivers.  Can an offense that has improved its total yardage output per game from 520 to 546 to 547 in the last three seasons improve yet again?  Yes, it can top 550 this year, and OSU could even challenge the 50 points per game barrier.  The key game is at Texas on November 16, and it could be the big one of the season.

 

TCU may have as much talent this year as they had in 2010, when the Horned Frogs ran the table in the Mountain West Conference and won the Rose Bowl.  However, in this year’s Big 12, they are no better than third best and possibly fourth best.  The defense could lead the conference in fewest points and yards allowed, but this is a league where offense rules.  The Horned Frogs averaged 27.2 points per game in league play, and that was good enough for only eighth best in the league.  That number will have to jump by a touchdown if TCU is to challenge the two powers.  It doesn’t help that they must play Oklahoma St. and Texas in back-to-back weeks in October.  Additionally, they face Oklahoma in Norman, and TCU figures to be an underdog in all three games.  Throw in an opening game against LSU at Cowboys Stadium, and it looks like a four-loss season in Ft. Worth.

 

Oklahoma has endured back-to-back three loss seasons, and the Sooners may be looking at another one as well.  The defense must reload with the loss of four of the top five tacklers, including the top run defender and the top pass defender.  The OU offense may take a small step backward this year, as it lost its starting quarterback and top two receivers.  Fret not Sooner fans, for you rebuilding means averaging 30 points and 425 yards per game.

 

Baylor looks for its fourth consecutive winning season under Art Briles.  The Bears survived the loss of RGIII and Kendall Wright and emerged with eight victories in 2012.  Bryce Petty is the new quarterback, and he should top 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter.  The Bears return two backs capable of topping 1,000 yards rushing, but the offensive line needs reworking.  Baylor will score a lot of points again this season, but the defense will give up a lot of points as well.  It will be very exciting in Waco, but this unit will just scrape by with enough wins to stay above .500.

 

Kansas St. will be lucky to stay bowl eligible this year after the defense left the building.  Six of the top seven tacklers must be replaced on the defense, and the offense must replace Collin Klein at quarterback.  Coach Bill Snyder relies on a lot of junior college talent, so his teams frequently have a lot of upperclassmen.  Thanks to a schedule that gives the Wildcats three guaranteed non-conference wins to start the season, KSU should find a way to stay bowl eligible.

 

Texas Tech breaks in a new head coach, as former Red Raider quarterback Kliff Kingsbury returns to Lubbock after running the offense of Johnny Football U in College Station last year.  Kingsbury will return the Red Raiders to the Air Raid offense after former coach Tommy Tuberville tried to make TTU Auburn west.  Look for the offense to struggle a bit and fall under .500 this year, but Kingsbury will soon have the Red Raiders scoring points like they did under Mike Leach.

 

West Virginia has a bigger rebuilding job to face than Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers cannot replace Geno Smith and his 4200+ yards and TD/Int ratio of 42/6!  Add the losses of two receivers that both grabbed more than 100 passes and combined for more than 2,900 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns, and the Mountaineers will see their offense fall by more than 10 points per game this year.  This team only went 7-6 last year, so hopes for a winning season are very dim in 2013.

 

Paul Rhoads has done great work at Iowa St., leading the Cyclones to three bowls in his four seasons in Ames.  If he can squeeze six wins out of this team, then the NCAA needs to name the National Coach of the Year Award, the Rhoads Award.  ISU must rebuild on both sides of the ball, and with this conference’s offensive fireworks, it could get ugly several Saturdays this fall.  Of the bottom four teams, ISU hosts Kansas, but must play at Texas Tech and West Virginia.  Expect at least nine and possibly ten losses this year.

 

Kansas has nowhere to go but up.  Since going 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win in 2007, the Jayhawks have seen their win number drop every year since then (8, 7, 5, 3, 2, and 1).  While it is still mathematically possible that the number could drop again, we don’t see that happening.  Second year coach Charlie Weis should find a way to lead KU to a very modest improvement and put an end to the 21-game losing streak in league play.

 

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Texas

0-0

0-0

127.3

116.2

127.8

Oklahoma St.

0-0

0-0

122.0

111.2

122.7

T C U

0-0

0-0

118.0

115.1

118.9

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

115.8

111.6

115.2

Baylor

0-0

0-0

112.5

103.2

112.4

Kansas St.

0-0

0-0

111.9

104.5

110.8

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

104.1

96.6

102.9

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

102.1

97.4

101.1

Iowa St.

0-0

0-0

99.7

92.8

98.3

Kansas

0-0

0-0

93.9

91.5

92.8

     

League Averages    

110.7

104.0

110.3

 

2013 Official Preseason Media Poll

 

Pos

Team

Points

1st Place

1

Oklahoma St.

365

15

2

Oklahoma

355

8

3

T C U

347

9

4

Texas

337

8

5

Baylor

282

2

6

Kansas St.

240

1

7

Texas Tech

161

0

8

West Virginia

126

0

9

Iowa St.

96

0

10

Kansas

56

0

 

2013 Preseason Media All-Conference Team

 

Offense

Pos Player School
QB Casey Pachall TCU
RB Lache Seastrunk Baylor
RB John Hubert Kansas State
WR Josh Stewart Oklahoma State
WR Eric Ward Texas Tech
TE Jace Amaro Texas Tech
OL Cyril Richardson Baylor
OL Cornelius Lucas Kansas State
OL Gabe Ikard Oklahoma
OL Trey Hopkins Texas
OL Le’Raven Clark Texas Tech
     

Defense

Pos Player School
DL Devonte Fields TCU
DL Calvin Barnett Oklahoma State
DL Jackson Jeffcoat Texas
DL Kerry Hyder Texas Tech
LB Bryce Hager Baylor
LB Jordan Hicks Texas
LB Shaun Lewis Oklahoma State
DB Ty Zimmerman Kansas State
DB Jason Verrett TCU
DB Aaron Colvin Oklahoma
DB Quandre Diggs Texas
     

Special Teams

Pos Player School
K Jaden Oberkrom TCU
P Kirby Van Der Kamp Iowa State
KR Tyler Lockett Kansas State
PR Tramaine Thompson Kansas State

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team

Baylor Bears

               
Head Coach

Art Briles

               
Colors

Green and Gold

               
City

Waco, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

92

Pass Offense

93

Run Defense

67

Pass Defense

59

               
Ratings              
PiRate

112.5

Mean

103.2

Bias

112.4

               
Rankings              
PiRate

32

Mean

46

Bias

32

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-5

Overall

7-5

 

 

Team

Iowa St. Cyclones

               
Head Coach

Paul Rhoads

               
Colors

Cardinal and Gold

               
City

Ames, IA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-6

Overall

6-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

64

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

58

Pass Defense

68

               
Ratings              
PiRate

99.7

Mean

92.8

Bias

98.3

               
Rankings              
PiRate

59

Mean

92

Bias

70

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-8

Overall

2-10

 

 

Team

Kansas Jayhawks

               
Head Coach

Charlie Weis

               
Colors

Crimson and Blue

               
City

Lawrence, KS

               
2012 Record              
Conference

0-9

Overall

1-11

               
Grades              
Run Offense

76

Pass Offense

62

Run Defense

60

Pass Defense

42

               
Ratings              
PiRate

93.9

Mean

91.5

Bias

92.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

82

Mean

99

Bias

87

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-8

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Kansas St. Wildcats

               
Head Coach

Bill Snyder

               
Colors

Royal Purple (and Silver)

               
City

Manhattan, KS

               
2012 Record              
Conference

8-1

Overall

11-2

               
Grades              
Run Offense

90

Pass Offense

64

Run Defense

81

Pass Defense

77

               
Ratings              
PiRate

111.9

Mean

104.5

Bias

110.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

33

Mean

42

Bias

34

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-4

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Oklahoma Sooners

               
Head Coach

Bob Stoops

               
Colors

Crimson and Cream

               
City

Norman, OK

               
2012 Record              
Conference

8-1

Overall

10-3

               
Grades              
Run Offense

83

Pass Offense

89

Run Defense

74

Pass Defense

76

               
Ratings              
PiRate

115.8

Mean

111.6

Bias

115.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

22

Mean

26

Bias

24

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-2

Overall

9-3

 

 

Team

Oklahoma St. Cowboys

               
Head Coach

Mike Gundy

               
Colors

Orange and Black

               
City

Stillwater, OK

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-4

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

79

Pass Offense

99

Run Defense

87

Pass Defense

81

               
Ratings              
PiRate

122.0

Mean

111.2

Bias

122.7

               
Rankings              
PiRate

5

Mean

28

Bias

5

               
Prediction              
Conference

8-1

Overall

11-1

 

 

Team

Texas Longhorns

               
Head Coach

Mack Brown

               
Colors

Burnt Orange and White

               
City

Austin

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-4

Overall

9-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

93

Pass Offense

95

Run Defense

91

Pass Defense

90

               
Ratings              
PiRate

127.3

Mean

116.2

Bias

127.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

3

Mean

8

Bias

3

               
Prediction              
Conference

9-0

Overall

12-0

 

 

Team

T C U Horned Frogs

               
Head Coach

Gary Patterson

               
Colors

Purple and White

               
City

Ft. Worth, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

82

Pass Offense

76

Run Defense

92

Pass Defense

84

               
Ratings              
PiRate

118.0

Mean

115.1

Bias

118.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

15

Mean

13

Bias

14

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-3

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Texas Tech Red Raiders

               
Head Coach

Kliff Kingsbury

               
Colors

Red and Black

               
City

Lubbock, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

86

Run Defense

71

Pass Defense

60

               
Ratings              
PiRate

104.1

Mean

96.6

Bias

102.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

45

Mean

78

Bias

45

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-7

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

West Virginia Mountaineers

               
Head Coach

Dan Holgersen

               
Colors

Old Gold and Blue

               
City

Morgantown, WV

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

63

Pass Offense

83

Run Defense

65

Pass Defense

56

               
Ratings              
PiRate

102.1

Mean

97.4

Bias

101.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

47

Mean

72

Bias

51

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-7

Overall

4-8

 

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