The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 20, 2013

2013 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

2013 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference expands to 14 teams this year, with two long-time Big East schools joining the fold.  This gives the ACC five former Big East members with a sixth to come next year.

 

The league has three teams that could compete for national honors this year, and at least one player, Clemson QB Tajh Boyd must be considered a key Heisman Trophy candidate.

 

There are new coaches in the league as well.  Dave Doeren takes over at North Carolina St. after guiding Northern Illinois to a spot in the Orange Bowl.  The former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin produced multiple top defenses in Badgerland, and he can only hope to find the next J. J. Watt and get him to Raleigh.

 

Steve Addazio moves from Temple to Boston College to try to reverse the Eagles’ slide.  BC has fallen from 11 to 9 to 8 to 7 to 4 to 2 wins.  Addazio has 18 starters returning, and BC should see an end to the decline.

 

Scott Shafer is the new man at Syracuse.  He has a tough job replacing Doug Marrone who matriculated to the NFL.  He had been the defensive coordinator for Marrone.

 

In the Atlantic Division, Clemson and Florida St. should decide the division title when they meet in Clemson on October 19.  The other five should split games and finish two or more games in back of second place.  Maryland, North Carolina St. ,and Wake Forest appear to have the talent to become bowl eligible.

 

In the Coastal Division, we believe Coach Al Golden has amassed enough talent to send the Miami Hurricanes to the conference championship game in year three in Coral Gables.  Golden won big at Temple, so Miami’s recruiting woes created by the prior coaching administration won’t prevent Golden from taking the “U” to a big bowl this year.

 

Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina will all challenge for conference honors, and it would not be a big surprise if any of these teams emerged as the division winner.

 

Georgia Tech has an experienced option quarterback, two quality fullbacks, and talented slotbacks for Coach Paul Johnson’s spread option attack.  The Yellow Jackets topped 300 rushing yards per game last year and should do even better in 2013.  If the defense can improve enough to shave a touchdown per game off what it did last year, then Tech could win seven conference games and nine or ten overall.

 

Virginia Tech has the top defense in the league, but the offense has been too inconsistent to be a division winner.  Logan Thomas needs to show considerable improvement in the passing game before the Hokies can return to the top of the league.  The opening game in Atlanta against Alabama could be as one-sided as the Alabama opener against Michigan last year.

 

North Carolina is waiting in ambush.  Larry Fedora’s Tar Heels benefit from having a week off prior to the Georgia Tech game in Atlanta and prior to the Miami game at home (so does Miami).

 

Virginia, Duke, and Pittsburgh all figure to lose more than they win this year.  Virginia has bitten off more than they can chew.  The Cavaliers open the season with games against BYU and Oregon.  An early October game at home against Ball St. is a trap game for sure.

 

After beginning 2012 6-2, Duke finished with five consecutive losses, giving up more than 49 points per game.  The Blue Devils lose their top two tacklers on defense and their QB and two star receivers on offense, so it looks like another year where Duke fans will have to wait for the basketball season to begin.

 

Pittsburgh coach Paul Chryst was the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin for seven years.  He built the Badgers’ offense on power running and excellent double tight end play, and he is trying to do the same at Pitt.  So far, he has yet to isolate a Lance Kendricks or Travis Beckum, and the Panther offense has not played with the consistency of his UW offenses.  Six times in 2012, Pitt failed to reach 21 points.

 

 

New Teams: Pittsburgh and Syracuse join from the Big East

 

Departures: None in 2013

 

2014 Additions: Lousville joins to make the ACC even stronger on the hardwoods.  Notre Dame begins its affiliation with the league and will host Louisville, North Carolina and Wake Forest and play at Florida State and Syracuse.

 

2014 Departures: Maryland leaves for the Big Ten

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Clemson

0-0

0-0

116.5

112.2

117.5

Florida St.

0-0

0-0

112.9

112.8

113.3

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

101.5

96.6

100.8

Boston College

0-0

0-0

100.4

96.6

101.1

Wake Forest

0-0

0-0

98.3

101.6

98.4

North Carolina St.

0-0

0-0

97.0

102.0

97.5

Maryland

0-0

0-0

94.7

105.1

96.5

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

0-0

114.7

114.1

115.2

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

110.9

110.8

110.9

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

110.5

108.7

110.8

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

107.3

109.3

108.6

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

101.1

97.6

101.1

Duke

0-0

0-0

97.5

97.1

96.5

Virginia

0-0

0-0

95.9

97.6

96.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

104.2

104.4

104.6

 

 

Official Pre-season Media Poll

 
         
Pos. Team

Points

1st Place

 

Atlantic Division

 

1

Clemson

815

102

 

2

Florida St.

731

18

 

3

North Carolina St.

490

0

 

4

Wake Forest

392

0

 

5

Maryland

373

0

 

6

Syracuse

320

0

 

7

Boston College

211

0

 
         

Coastal Division

 

1

Miami

736

65

 

2

Virginia Tech

654

27

 

3

North Carolina

649

22

 

4

Georgia Tech

522

6

 

5

Pittsburgh

313

0

 

6

Virginia

230

0

 

7

Duke

228

0

 
         

ACC Championship Game Winner

 

1

Clemson

95

   

2

Florida St.

15

   

3

Georgia Tech

3

   

3

Miami

3

   

3

North Carolina

3

   

6

Virginia Tech

1

   
         

ACC Championship Game Predictions

 

1

Clemson over Miami    

55

2

Clemson over Virginia Tech  

19

3

Clemson over North Carolina  

18

4

Florida State over Miami  

7

5

Florida State over Virginia Tech  

7

6

Clemson over Georgia Tech  

3

7

Georgia Tech over Clemson  

3

8

Miami over Clemson    

2

9

North Carolina over Florida State

2

10

Virginia Tech over Clemson  

1

11

North Carolina over Clemson  

1

12

Miami over Florida State  

1

13

Miami over Florida State  

1

14

Florida State over North Carolina

1

 

The Official ACC Media Preseason All-Conference Teams

 

2013 Atlantic Coast Conference Preseason Team
       
1st Team Offense    
       
Pos. Player   School
WR Sammy Watkins   Clemson
WR Michael Campanaro   Wake Forest
TE Eric Ebron   North Carolina
T James Hurst   North Carolina
T Morgan Moses   Virginia
G Tre’ Jackson   Florida St.
G Brandon Linder   Miami
C Bryan Stork   Florida St.
QB Tajh Boyd   Clemson
RB Duke Johnson   Miami
RB James Wilder Jr.   Florida St.
       
1st Team Defense    
       
Pos. Player   School
DE Jeremiah Attaochu   Georgia Tech
DE Kareem Martin   North Carolina
DT Nikita Whitlock   Wake Forest
DT Timmy Jernigan   Florida St.
LB Jack Tyler   Virginia Tech
LB Christian Jones   Florida St.
LB Kevin Pierre-Louis   Boston College
CB Ross Cockrell   Duke
CB Lamarcus Joyner *   Florida St.
S Tre Boston   North Carolina
S Jason Hendricks   Pittsburgh
       
1st Team Specialists    
       
Pos. Player   School
PK Chandler Catanzaro   Clemson
P Will Monday   Duke
SP Stefon Diggs   Maryland
       
Lamarcus Joyner received 11 votes at safety
       
2nd Team Offense    
       
Pos. Player   School
WR Stefon Diggs   Maryland
WR Rashad Greene   Florida St.
TE Nick O’Leary   Florida St.
T Brandon Thomas   Clemson
T Seantrel Henderson   Miami
G Will Jackson   Georgia Tech
G Tyler Shatley   Clemson
C Macky MacPherson   Syracuse
QB 3-players tied *   See Below
RB Jerome Smith   Syracuse
RB Devonta Freeman   Florida St.
       
* QB 3-players tied    
  Logan Thomas   Virginia Tech
  Bryn Renner   North Carolina
  Stephen Morris   Miami
       
2nd Team Defense    
       
Pos. Player   School
DE James Gayle   Virginia Tech
DE Mario Edwards   Florida St.
DT Aaron Donald   Pittsburgh
DT Derrick Hopkins   Virginia Tech
LB Steele Divitto   Boston College
LB Dyshawn Davis   Syracuse
LB Stephone Anthony   Clemson
CB Antone Exum   Virginia Tech
CB Kyle Fuller   Virginia Tech
S Kyshoen Jarrett   Virginia Tech
S Travis Blanks   Clemson
       
2nd Team Specialists    
       
Pos. Player   School
PK Ross Martin   Duke
P Tommy Hibbard   North Carolina
SP Duke Johnson   Miami

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Atlantic Division

 

Team

Boston College Eagles

               
Head Coach

Steve Addazio

               
Colors

Maroon and Gold

               
City

Chestnut Hill, MA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

1-7

Overall

2-10

               
Grades              
Run Offense

65

Pass Offense

74

Run Defense

59

Pass Defense

62

               
Ratings              
PiRate

100.4

Mean

96.6

Bias

101.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

54

Mean

76

Bias

48

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

4-8

 

 

Team

Clemson Tigers

               
Head Coach

Dabo Swinney

               
Colors

Orange and Purple

               
City

Clemson, SC

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1

Overall

11-2

               
Grades              
Run Offense

77

Pass Offense

96

Run Defense

70

Pass Defense

79

               
Ratings              
PiRate

116.5

Mean

112.2

Bias

117.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

18

Mean

23

Bias

16

               
Prediction              
Conference

8-0 (lose ACC title game)

Overall

10-3

 

 

Team

Florida St. Seminoles

               
Head Coach

Jimbo Fisher

               
Colors

Garnet and Gold

               
City

Tallahassee, FL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1 (won ACC Championship Game)

Overall

12-2

               
Grades              
Run Offense

80

Pass Offense

87

Run Defense

73

Pass Defense

71

               
Ratings              
PiRate

112.9

Mean

112.8

Bias

113.3

               
Rankings              
PiRate

31

Mean

20

Bias

30

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-2

 

 

Team

Maryland Terrapins

               
Head Coach

Randy Edsall

               
Colors

Red, White, Black, and Gold

               
City

College Park, MD

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

59

Pass Offense

64

Run Defense

53

Pass Defense

61

               
Ratings              
PiRate

94.7

Mean

105.1

Bias

96.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

78

Mean

41

Bias

76

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

North Carolina St. Wolfpack

               
Head Coach

Dave Doeren

               
Colors

Red and White

               
City

Raleigh, NC

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

58

Pass Offense

81

Run Defense

62

Pass Defense

46

               
Ratings              
PiRate

97.0

Mean

102.0

Bias

97.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

75

Mean

50

Bias

73

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-6

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

Syracuse Orangemen

               
Head Coach

Scott Shafer

               
Colors

Orange, Blue, and White

               
City

Syracuse, NY

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-2 (in Big East)

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

75

Pass Offense

72

Run Defense

62

Pass Defense

58

               
Ratings              
PiRate

101.5

Mean

96.6

Bias

100.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

51

Mean

77

Bias

54

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

               
Head Coach

Jim Grobe

               
Colors

Black and Old Gold

               
City

Winston-Salem, NC

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

5-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

79

Pass Offense

54

Run Defense

63

Pass Defense

61

               
Ratings              
PiRate

98.3

Mean

101.6

Bias

98.4

               
Rankings              
PiRate

67

Mean

53

Bias

68

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-5

 

 

Coastal Division

 

Team

Duke Blue Devils

               
Head Coach

David Cutcliffe

               
Colors

Royal Blue and White

               
City

Durham, NC

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

6-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

75

Pass Offense

69

Run Defense

50

Pass Defense

56

               
Ratings              
PiRate

97.5

Mean

97.1

Bias

96.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

72

Mean

73

Bias

75

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

               
Head Coach

Paul Johnson

               
Colors

Old Gold, Navy, and White

               
City

Atlanta

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-3 (lost ACC Championship Game)

Overall

7-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

98

Pass Offense

57

Run Defense

77

Pass Defense

76

               
Ratings              
PiRate

110.5

Mean

108.7

Bias

110.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

36

Mean

34

Bias

36

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Miami Hurricanes

               
Head Coach

Al Golden

               
Colors

Orange and Green

               
City

Coral Gables, FL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-3

Overall

7-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

81

Pass Offense

92

Run Defense

67

Pass Defense

76

               
Ratings              
PiRate

114.7

Mean

114.1

Bias

115.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

28

Mean

15

Bias

25

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1 (win ACC Championship Game)

Overall

12-1

 

 

Team

North Carolina Tar Heels

               
Head Coach

Larry Fedora

               
Colors

Carolina Blue and White

               
City

Chapel Hill, NC

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-3

Overall

8-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

69

Pass Offense

88

Run Defense

63

Pass Defense

66

               
Ratings              
PiRate

107.3

Mean

109.3

Bias

108.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

41

Mean

32

Bias

40

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-3

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Pittsburgh Panthers

               
Head Coach

Paul Chryst

               
Colors

Blue and Gold

               
City

Pittsburgh

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-4 (in Big East)

Overall

6-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

75

Run Defense

62

Pass Defense

67

               
Ratings              
PiRate

101.1

Mean

97.6

Bias

101.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

52

Mean

69

Bias

49

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-6

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Virginia Cavaliers

               
Head Coach

Mike London

               
Colors

Blue and Orange

               
City

Charlottesville, VA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

60

Pass Offense

69

Run Defense

51

Pass Defense

61

               
Ratings              
PiRate

95.9

Mean

97.6

Bias

96.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

77

Mean

70

Bias

77

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Virginia Tech Hokies

               
Head Coach

Frank Beamer

               
Colors

Maroon, Orange, and White

               
City

Blacksburg, VA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

77

Pass Offense

74

Run Defense

84

Pass Defense

71

               
Ratings              
PiRate

110.9

Mean

110.8

Bias

110.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

35

Mean

29

Bias

33

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-3

 

 

 

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