2013 Mountain West Conference Football Preview

2013 Mountain West Conference Preview

 

The Mountain West Conference expands to 12 teams this year and divides into two divisions with a championship game to be held on December 7 at the home field on the division winner with the higher BCS ranking.

 

The divisional split here is geographical in an east/west split, but the divisions are named, Mountain and West.  All Mountain teams reside in cities in the Mountain Time Zone, while all West Teams resided in cities in the Pacific Time Zone, or in the case of Hawaii, in the Hawaii Time Zone (2 hours behind the Pacific Time Zone).

 

Last year, Fresno St., San Diego St., and Boise St. tied for the conference title.  Throw in two new teams (both 11-2) that finished in the top 25 in last year’s final poll, and the league should be stronger this season, but not as strong as when TCU was in the league.

 

We expect a little changing of the guard this season.  We suspect Boise State to experience a rebuilding season and have their worst season in a decade.  It is the first time our ratings have not listed BSU as the top-rated team in their league since 2005.

 

This league has produced multiple BCS Bowl qualifiers, and we believe there is a good chance that one more team could challenge for a spot this season.  An October 26 road game against San Diego St. and a November 29 road game against San Jose St. and a win in the inaugural MWC title game are the three crucial games that must be victorious for Fresno St.  If the Bulldogs win those three games, they should be 13-0.  Our ratings have FSU favored in every game.

 

Additions: San Jose St. and Utah St. move from the now football defunct WAC.

 

Departures: None

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

 

Mountain West Conference Mountain Division Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Utah St. 0-0 0-0 100.9 92.5 101.1 Boise St. 0-0 0-0 100.0 102.3 101.7 Colorado St. 0-0 0-0 90.3 94.4 90.8 Wyoming 0-0 0-0 85.8 85.6 85.9 Air Force 0-0 0-0 81.3 87.7 81.2 New Mexico 0-0 0-0 78.8 83.9 79.4             West Division Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Fresno St. 0-0 0-0 104.0 101.4 105.0 San Jose St. 0-0 0-0 100.3 94.9 100.7 San Diego St. 0-0 0-0 98.6 98.3 98.8 Nevada 0-0 0-0 88.5 96.2 89.5 U N L V 0-0 0-0 85.7 92.0 86.3 Hawaii 0-0 0-0 82.0 82.4 82.4             League Averages     91.4 92.6 91.9
Official Pre-season Media Poll
Mountain Division     Pos Team Points 1st Place 1 Boise St. 245 40 2 Utah St. 204 1 3 Air Force 143 0 4 Wyoming 116 0 5 Colorado St. 90 0 6 New Mexico 63 0         West Division     Pos Team Points 1st Place 1 Fresno St. 243 39 2 San Diego St. 181 1 3 San Jose St. 172 1 4 Nevada 135 0 5 U N L V 71 0 6 Hawaii 59 0

 

2013 MOUNTAIN WEST FOOTBALL PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offense
QB	Derek Carr *	Sr.	Fresno State
WR	Davante Adams *	So.	Fresno State
WR	Noel Grigsby	Sr.	San José State
RB	Kasey Carrier **	Sr.	New Mexico
RB	Adam Muema **	Jr.	San Diego State
OL	Charles Leno **	Sr.	Boise State
OL	Matt Paradis *	Sr.	Boise State
OL	Weston Richburg	Sr.	Colorado State
OL	Austin Wentworth *	Sr.	Fresno State
OL	Tyler Larsen	Sr.	Utah State
TE	Marcel Jensen	Sr.	Fresno State
Defense
DL	Demarcus Lawrence *	Jr.	Boise State
DL	Tyeler Davison *	Jr.	Fresno State
DL	Brock Hekking **	Jr.	Nevada
DL	Travis Raciti	Jr.	San José State
LB	Jake Fely **	Jr.	San Diego State
LB	Keith Smith	Sr.	San José State
LB	Kyler Fackrell	So.	Utah State
DB	L.J. Jones	Sr.	Fresno State
DB	Derron Smith *	Jr.	Fresno State
DB	Nat Berhe **	Sr.	San Diego State
DB	Bené Benwikere	Sr.	San José State
Specialists
P	Ben Skaer	Sr.	New Mexico
PK	Austin Lopez	So.	San José State
Ret.	Chase Clayton	Jr.	New Mexico
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:			Derek Carr, Sr., QB, Fresno State
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:			Derron Smith, Jr., DB, Fresno State
Preseason Spcl Teams Player of the Year:			Chase Clayton, Jr., KR, New Mexico
* – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West first team.
** – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West second team.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Mountain Division

Team	Utah St. Aggies
Head Coach	Matt Wells
Colors	Navy and White
City	Logan, UT
2012 Record
Conference	6-0 (in WAC)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	63
Run Defense	75
Pass Defense	61
Ratings
PiRate	100.9
Mean	92.5
Bias	101.1
Rankings
PiRate	53
Mean	93
Bias	50
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5 (Lose MWC Championship Game)

 

 

Team	Boise St. Broncos
Head Coach	Chris Petersen
Colors	Blue and Orange
City	Boise, ID
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	59
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	69
Ratings
PiRate	100.0
Mean	102.3
Bias	101.7
Rankings
PiRate	58
Mean	49
Bias	47
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Colorado St. Rams
Head Coach	Jim McElwain
Colors	Forest Green and Gold
City	Ft. Collins, CO
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	55
Pass Offense	55
Run Defense	51
Pass Defense	59
Ratings
PiRate	90.3
Mean	94.4
Bias	90.8
Rankings
PiRate	91
Mean	86
Bias	91
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Wyoming Cowboys
Head Coach	Dave Christensen
Colors	Brown and Gold
City	Laramie, WY
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	41
Pass Offense	69
Run Defense	40
Pass Defense	68
Ratings
PiRate	85.8
Mean	85.6
Bias	85.9
Rankings
PiRate	103
Mean	114
Bias	105
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Air Force Falcons
Head Coach	Troy Calhoun
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Colorado Springs, CO
2012 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-7
Grades
Run Offense	69
Pass Offense	28
Run Defense	43
Pass Defense	50
Ratings
PiRate	81.3
Mean	87.7
Bias	81.2
Rankings
PiRate	115
Mean	107
Bias	114
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	New Mexico Lobos
Head Coach	Bob Davie
Colors	Cherry and Silver
City	Albuquerque, NM
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	4-9
Grades
Run Offense	66
Pass Offense	26
Run Defense	45
Pass Defense	44
Ratings
PiRate	78.8
Mean	83.8
Bias	79.4
Rankings
PiRate	120
Mean	117
Bias	119
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Fresno St. Bulldogs
Head Coach	Tim DeRuyter
Colors	Cardinal and Blue
City	Fresno, CA
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate	104.0
Mean	101.4
Bias	105.0
Rankings
PiRate	44
Mean	56
Bias	43
Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	13-0 (win MWC title game)

 

 

Team	San Jose St. Spartans
Head Coach	Ron Caragher
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	San Jose
2012 Record
Conference	5-1 (in WAC)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	39
Pass Offense	83
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	69
Ratings
PiRate	100.3
Mean	94.9
Bias	100.7
Rankings
PiRate	56
Mean	85
Bias	55
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	San Diego St. Aztecs
Head Coach	Rocky Long
Colors	Red and Black
City	San Diego
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	56
Run Defense	76
Pass Defense	63
Ratings
PiRate	98.6
Mean	98.3
Bias	98.8
Rankings
PiRate	66
Mean	66
Bias	65
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Nevada Wolf Pack
Head Coach	Brian Polian
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Reno, NV
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate	88.5
Mean	96.2
Bias	89.5
Rankings
PiRate	97
Mean	80
Bias	96
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	U N L V Rebels
Head Coach	Bobby Hauck
Colors	Scarlet and Gray
City	Las Vegas
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	2-11
Grades
Run Offense	55
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	85.7
Mean	92.0
Bias	86.3
Rankings
PiRate	104
Mean	95
Bias	103
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Head Coach	Norm Chow
Colors	Green, Black, and Silver
City	Honolulu
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	27
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	53
Ratings
PiRate	82.0
Mean	82.4
Bias	82.4
Rankings
PiRate	114
Mean	120
Bias	113
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11